Dietary Intake, Carcinogenic and Non-Carcinogenic Risk Potentials of Lead, Cadmium, Mercury and Arsenic Exposure via Consumption of Dried Crayfish in Calabar, Nigeria

Intense pressure from both onshore and offshore oil exploration and exploitation activities, together with the accompanying urbanization and industrialization has resulted in massive contamination of land and water resources in Niger Delta, Nigeria. Whereas crayfish is very sensitive to contaminant in the aquatic environment and constitute an important part of human diet, its quality and safety from environmental pollutant is of serious health concern. Evaluation of dietary intake, potential carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risk of lead, cadmium, mercury and arsenic exposure via consumption of dried crayfish purchased from major markets in Calabar, Nigeria was carried out between June and August 2021. Thirty-six composite samples of dried crayfish purchased from 180 vendors were used for the study. Heavy metals concentrations were determined using Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer (Model AA-6800, Japan) after wet digestion. Metals concentrations (Mg/kg) were of the ranges 0.02 - 0.24, 0.14 - 0.86, 0.32 - 0.72, 0.04 - 0.19 for Pb, Cd, Hg and As respectively. The mean content of cadmium and mercury exceeded FAO/ WHO and Commission of European Communities maximum levels for crustaceans. Average Estimated Daily Intake for each of the metals was found to be above the recommended daily intake level except for arsenic. The average estimated daily intake values for Cd and Hg were also above the tolerable upper intake level. Average Target Hazard Quotient of all the metals and Hazard Index of all the markets were below 1.00. The Incremental Lifetime Cancer Risk of the metals was greater than the standard tolerable regulatory risk (10-4) for carcinogens. Consumption of crayfish purchased from major markets in Calabar could pose a range of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic human health risks.

Evaluation of groundwater quality using pollution index of groundwater(PIG) and non-carcinogenic health risk assessment in part of the Gangetic Basin

The aim of this study was to evaluate groundwater fitness for domestic and irrigational use in Unnao district of Uttar Pradesh,India.For this study,block wise(n=16)groundwater samples were collected,and measured parameters were analyzed using the pollution index of groundwater(PIG),various irrigational indices,and graphical techniques.The results of this study suggested that most of the parameters were within the prescribed limits of WHO and BIS,excluding F-(0.4 to 2.6 mg L^(-1))and Fe^(2+)(0.1 to 1.7 mg L^(-1)).Concentrations of total dissolved solids(TDS)were exceeded the desirable limit(>500 mg L^(-1))in 43.75%of samples at some sites.The Gibbs plot revealed that groundwater chemistry was governed by rock-water interaction in the region,especially silicate weathering.The Piper plot suggested that Ca^(2+)-HCO3-is dominant hydrochemical facies in the area followed by mixed Ca^(2+)-Na^(+)-HCO_(3)^(-)type,Na^(+)-Cl^(-)type,and Na^(+)-HCO_(3)^(-)type.PIG evaluation revealed that the contribution of F-and Fe2+in groundwater degradation is high in comparison to other elements in the region,about 18.75%samples showed low pollution,while about 6.25%samples shows moderate pollution,and 6.25%samples reflected high pollution.The human health risk(HHR)assessment finding suggested that children(mean:1.36)are more vulnerable than adults(mean:1.01).Sodium absorption ration(SAR),Residual sodium carbonate(RSC),and Permeability index(PI)indicated that most of the groundwater was suitable for irrigation,whereas,Magnesium hazard ration(MHR)and Potential salinity(PS)indices suggested that only 37.5%and 56.25%of the samples were suitable for irrigational use,respectively.This regional study would help in decision making for stakeholders and relevant authorities in the execution of groundwater management and remediation plans in the area.

Risk factors for congenital nasolacrimal duct obstruction in children under two years of age

·AIM:To identify various risk factors that may play a significant role in the development of congenital nasolacrimal duct obstruction(CNLDO).·METHODS:This observational case-control study included a case group of 122 children less than two years of age with CNLDO who underwent probing and irrigation treatment at the ophthalmology department of Imam Khomeini Hospital in Ahvaz,Iran,from June 2022 to June2024.A control group of 122 age-matched children without CNLDO was also included for comparison.Data was collected from the children's medical records.·RESULTS:The study found a significant correlation between the occurrence of CNLDO and several maternal factors,such as preeclampsia,the use of levothyroxine,hypothyroidism,having more than three pregnancies(gravidity>3),natural pregnancy,and gestational diabetes mellitus.Additionally,in children,factors,such as oxygen therapy,anemia,reflux,jaundice,and a family history of CNLDO in first-degree relatives were associated with CNLDO,and maternal preeclampsia and hypothyroidism were found to significantly increase the risk of developing CNLDO in children.·CONCLUSION:Given that CNLDO affects both premature and full-term children,the present findings may potentially facilitate the early identification of children and infants at risk of nasolacrimal duct obstruction,thereby preventing the onset of chronic dacryocystitis.

Non-carcinogenic health risk assessment of nitrate and fluoride contamination in the groundwater of Noyyal basin,India

The study aims to assess the nitrate and fluoride concentration in groundwater and its adverse effects on human health.In 2019,42 groundwater samples were collected from various bore wells within the western Noyyal basin,India.Sodium and chloride are the dominant cation and anion,respectively.The nitrate concentration in groundwater samples varies from 2 to 89 mg/L,of which 33.33%are above the permissible limit of 45 mg/L for drinking water.The fluoride concentration ranges from 0.2 to 2.4 mg/L,with 28.57%of the samples exceeding the safe value of 1.5 mg/L for drinking water.Correlation plots demonstrate that the potential of hydrogen(pH),electrical conductivity(EC),total dissolved solids(TDS),Na^(+)and HCO^(-)_(3)are positively correlated with F^(-),whereas Ca^(2+)is negatively correlated.Mixed Ca-Mg-Cl is the most common water type in the investigated region.The Gibbs diagram demonstrates that the interaction between rock and water impacts the groundwater chemistry.Using the method of the United States Environmental Production Agency(USEPA),this study assesses the non-carcinogenic health risk posed by nitrate and fluoride in different age groups(infants,children,and adults).The values of total hazard index(THI)vary from 0.59 to 10.07(mean=4.76)for infants,0.36 to 6.23(mean=2.95)for children,and 0.19 to 3.32(mean=1.57)for adults.Furthermore,97.62%,92.86%,and 73.81%of the samples surpass the recommended limit(THI=1)for infants,children,and adults,respectively.Thus,the health risk assessment(HRA)indicates that infants and children are more susceptible to noncarcinogenic health hazards than adults.The THI spatial variation map shows that central and southern regions of the study area have been identified as high health risk areas(THI>3.0)for all age groups.

Risk Management Techniques in Construction Projects:Development and Assessment of an Innovative

Professional and trade skills are required for handling the construction related projects;Construction industries of the present day however lack useful information concerning different practices,patterns and trends involved in risk management.Considering this,the present study focuses on the aforementioned variables of risk management by quantitative analysis specifically in the domain of construction industry.This study has used IBM’s SPSS(Statistical Package for Social Sciences)version 25.0 to analyze the results.This study is an initiative to assess the impact of risk management in the construction sector of Jordan.It will assist the construction sector for exploring the limitations with respect to integrate effective risk management.A sense of competition will be developed through a comparison of risk factors of construction projects among the project stakeholders such as contractors should enhance their risk management practices.

Evaluation of the prevalence and risk factors of burnout syndrome among healthcare workers:A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND Burnout syndrome is a significant issue among healthcare professionals worldwide,marked by depersonalization,emotional exhaustion,and a reduced sense of personal achievement.This psychological and physical burden profoundly affects healthcare professionals'quality of care and overall well-being.In Somalia,where the healthcare system faces numerous challenges,the escalating demand for medical services and inadequate resources,coupled with overwhelming workloads,long hours,and high-stress levels,make healthcare providers particularly vulnerable to burnout syndrome.This,in turn,affects both the mental health of healthcare personnel and the quality of care they provide.AIM To examine the prevalence and determinants of burnout syndrome among healthcare practitioners in Mogadishu,Somalia.METHODS This cross-sectional prospective study was performed among 246 healthcare providers employed at a tertiary care hospital in Mogadishu,Somalia,who were recruited via random sampling.Data were collected using questionnaires that covered sociodemographic,psychological,work-related characteristics,and burnout syndrome.Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the variables that correlated with burnout syndrome.The results were presented using adjusted odds ratios(AORs),95%CIs,and P values,with a cutoff of 0.05 for identifying significant associations.RESULTS Among the participants,24%(95%CI:18.8%–29.8%)exhibited symptoms of burnout syndrome.Factors associated with burnout included female gender(AOR=6.60;95%CI:2.29-19.04),being married(AOR=3.07;95%CI:1.14-8.28),being divorced or widowed(AOR=5.84;95%CI:1.35-25.35),working more than 7 night shifts(AOR=3.19;95%CI:1.30–7.82),having less than 5 years of job experience(AOR=5.28;95%CI:1.29-21.65),experiencing poor sleep quality(AOR=5.29;95%CI:1.88-14.89),and exhibiting depressive(AOR=4.46;95%CI:1.59-12.53)and anxiety symptoms(AOR=7.34;95%CI:2.49-21.60).CONCLUSION This study found that nearly one in four healthcare professionals suffers from burnout syndrome.Improving sleep quality,monitoring,and providing mental health support could enhance their well-being and patient care.

Risk factors,monitoring,and treatment strategies for early recurrence after rectal cancer surgery

Early recurrence(ER)following surgery for rectal cancer is a significant factor impacting patient survival rates.Tsai et al identified age,preoperative neoadjuvant therapy,length of hospital stay,tumour location,and pathological stage as factors influencing the risk of ER.Postoperative monitoring for ER should encompass a thorough medical history review,physical examination,tumour marker testing,and imaging studies.Additionally,noninvasive circulating tumour cell DNA testing can be utilized to predict ER.Treatment strategies may involve radical surgery,radiation therapy,chemotherapy,and immunotherapy.Through a comprehensive analysis of risk factors,the optimization of monitoring methods,and the development of personalized treatment strategies,it is anticipated that both the efficacy of treatment and the quality of life for rectal cancer patients with postoperative recurrence can be significantly improved.

Prognosis in stage II colon cancer:Expanding the horizons of risk factors

we critically review the authors’perspective and analyze the relevance of the results obtained in the original article of clinical research by Liu et al.We consider that additional factors associated with colon cancer progression have recently been described in extensive clinical research,and should be included in this analysis to achieve a more accurate prognosis.These factors include inflammation,gut microbiota composition,immune status and nutritional balance,as they influence the post-surgical survival profile of patients with stage II colorectal cancer.We also address the clinical implementation and limitations of these analyses.Evaluation of the patient´s entire context is essential for selection of the most appropriate therapy.

Classification and identification of risk factors for type 2 diabetes

The risk factors for type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM)have been increasingly researched,but the lack of systematic identification and categorization makes it difficult for clinicians to quickly and accurately access and understand all the risk factors,which are categorized in this paper into five categories:Social determinants,lifestyle,checkable/testable risk factors,history of illness and medication,and other factors,which are discussed in a narrative review.Meanwhile,this paper points out the problems of the current research,helps to improve the systematic categorisation and practicality of T2DM risk factors,and provides a professional research basis for clinical practice and industry decision-making.

Long-term monitoring of active large-scale landslides for non-structural risk mitigation-integrated sensors and web-based platform

Large-scale deep-seated landslides pose a significant threat to human life and infrastructure.Therefore,closely monitoring these landslides is crucial for assessing and mitigating their associated risks.In this paper,the authors introduce the So Lo Mon framework,a comprehensive monitoring system developed for three large-scale landslides in the Autonomous Province of Bolzano,Italy.A web-based platform integrates various monitoring data(GNSS,topographic data,in-place inclinometer),providing a user-friendly interface for visualizing and analyzing the collected data.This facilitates the identification of trends and patterns in landslide behaviour,enabling the triggering of warnings and the implementation of appropriate mitigation measures.The So Lo Mon platform has proven to be an invaluable tool for managing the risks associated with large-scale landslides through non-structural measures and driving countermeasure works design.It serves as a centralized data repository,offering visualization and analysis tools.This information empowers decisionmakers to make informed choices regarding risk mitigation,ultimately ensuring the safety of communities and infrastructures.

Work-family behavioral role conflict and daytime sleepiness on suicide risk among Chinese nurses:A cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND Work-family conflicts and daytime sleepiness are related to the risk of suicide.At present,no study has investigated the relationship between nurses’work-family behavioral role conflict and suicide risk.Moreover,it has not been confirmed whether,considering the effect of daytime sleepiness on suicide risk,daytime sleepiness mediates the effect of work-family behavioral role conflict and suicide risk.AIM To explore the pathway relationships among nurses'work-family behavioral role conflict,daytime sleepiness,and suicide risk.METHODS Convenience and purposive sampling methods were used to select 750 nurses from six provinces,including Jiangxi,Sichuan,and Shanxi.The work-family behavioral role conflict scale,the Chinese adult daytime sleepiness scale,and the suicide behavior questionnaire were used for the survey.The data were statistically analyzed via SPSS 25.0 software,Pearson correlation analysis was used to explore the correlations between the variables,the PROCESS 4.0 program was used for the mediation effect analysis,and the mediation effect model was tested via the bootstrap method.RESULTS Nurses'work-family behavioral role conflict and daytime sleepiness were positively correlated with suicide risk(r=734,0.717).Work-family behavioral role conflict positively predicted suicide risk(β=0.118),and daytime sleepiness positively predicted suicide risk(β=0.152).Daytime sleepiness partially mediated the role of nurses'work-family behavioral role conflict and suicide risk,with a mediation effect value of 0.046 and a mediation effect accounting for 38.98%.CONCLUSION The results of the Pearson correlation analysis and mediation effect analysis revealed that nurses'work-family behavioral role conflict has a direct effect on suicide risk and indirectly affects suicide risk through daytime drowsiness symptoms.

An integrated approach for GLOF hazard,vulnerability and risk assessment in the Karakoram Mountain Range of northern Pakistan

Climate change and rising temperatures are accelerating the rate of deglaciation in the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya(HKH)ranges,leading to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing ones.These lakes are often vulnerable to failure,posing a significant threat to downstream communities and infrastructure.Therefore,a comprehensive assessment of Glacier-Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF)hazards and risk assessment is crucial to evaluate flood runout characteristics and identify settlements and infrastructure that are exposed and vulnerable to floods,aiding in the development and implementation of risk reduction strategies.This study aims to simulate a GLOF event induced by the Shisper glacier lake in northern Pakistan,using the HEC-RAS,and to assess its impact on settlements,infrastructure,and agricultural land.For the hydrometeorological analysis of the GLOF event,topographic data from unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs),stream profiles,discharge data,Manning's roughness coefficient(n),and land use/land cover(LULC)were analyzed using HEC-RAS and geographic information system(GIS).During the GLOF event on May 7,2022,a maximum water depth of 6.3 m and a maximum velocity of 9.5 m/s were recorded.Based on the runout characteristics of this event,vulnerability and risk assessments have been calculated.The physical,social,and environmental vulnerabilities of the at-risk elements were evaluated using the analytical hierarchy process(AHP)and integrated with the hazard data to develop a risk map.The study identified the areas,infrastructure and settlements susceptible to GLOF hazard to support the development and implementation of targeted and evidence-based mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Evaluating risk factors for surgical site infections and the effectiveness of prophylactic antibiotics in patients undergoing laparoscopic cholecystectomy

BACKGROUND Surgical site infections(SSIs)are a significant complication in laparoscopic cholecystectomy(LC),affecting patient outcomes and healthcare costs.AIM To identify risk factors associated with SSIs and evaluate the effectiveness of prophylactic antibiotics in reducing these infections.METHODS A comprehensive retrospective evaluation was conducted on 400 patients who underwent LC from January 2022 to January 2024.Patients were divided into infected(n=36)and non-infected(n=364)groups based on the occurrence of SSIs.Data collected included age,diabetes mellitus status,use of prophylactic antibiotics,and specific surgical complications.Statistical analyses using SPSS(Version 27.0)involved univariate and multivariate logistic regression to determine factors influencing the risk of SSIs.RESULTS The use of prophylactic antibiotics significantly reduced the incidence of SSIs(χ²=68.34,P<0.01).Older age(≥60 years)and comorbidities such as diabetes mellitus were identified as significant risk factors.Surgical complications like insufficient cystic duct stump,gallbladder perforation,and empyema also increased SSI risk.Notably,factors such as intraoperative blood loss and operation time did not significantly impact SSI occurrence.CONCLUSION Prophylactic antibiotics are effective in reducing the risk of SSIs in patients undergoing LC.Age,diabetes mellitus,and certain surgical complications significantly contribute to the risk.Effective management of these risk factors is essential to improve surgical outcomes and reduce the incidence of SSIs.

Cumulative effects of stress-sensitivity factors on depressive symptoms and suicide risk:A prospective study

BACKGROUND Sensitivity to stress is essential in the onset,clinical symptoms,course,and prognosis of major depressive disorder(MDD).Meanwhile,it was unclear how variously classified but connected stress-sensitivity variables affect MDD.We hypothesize that high-level trait-and state-related stress-sensitivity factors may have different cumulative effects on the clinical symptoms and follow-up outcomes of MDD.AIM To investigate how stress-sensitivity factors added up and affected MDD clinical symptoms and follow-up results.METHODS In this prospective study,281 MDD patients were enrolled from a tertiary care setting.High-level stress-sensitivity factors were classified as trait anxiety,state anxiety,perceived stress,and neuroticism,with a total score in the top quartile of the research cohort.The cumulative effects of stress-sensitivity factors on cognitive dysfunction,disability and functional impairment,suicide risk,and depressive and anxiety symptoms were examined using an analysis of variance with linear trend analysis.Correlations were investigated further using multiple regression analysis.RESULTS Regarding high-level stress-sensitivity factors,53.40%of patients had at least one at baseline,and 29.61%had two or more.Four high-level stress-sensitivity components had significant cumulative impacts on MDD symptoms at baseline(all P<0.001).Perceived stress predicted the greatest effect sizes of state-related factors on depressive symptoms(partialη^(2)=0.153;standardizedβ=0.195;P<0.05).The follow-up outcomes were significantly impacted only by the high-level trait-related components,mainly when it came to depressive symptoms and suicide risk,which were predicted by trait anxiety and neuroticism,respectively(partialη^(2)=0.204 and 0.156;standardizedβ=0.247 and 0.392;P<0.05).CONCLUSION To enhance outcomes of MDD and lower the suicide risk,screening for stress-sensitivity factors and considering multifaceted measures,mainly focusing on trait-related ones,should be addressed clinically.

Correlation between key indicators of continuous glucose monitoring and the risk of diabetic foot

BACKGROUND Continuous glucose monitoring(CGM)metrics,such as time in range(TIR)and glycemic risk index(GRI),have been linked to various diabetes-related complications,including diabetic foot(DF).AIM To investigate the association between CGM-derived indicators and the risk of DF in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus(T2DM).METHODS A total of 591 individuals with T2DM(297 with DF and 294 without DF)were enrolled.Relevant clinical data,complications,comorbidities,hematological parameters,and 72-hour CGM data were collected.Logistic regression analysis was employed to examine the relationship between these measurements and the risk of DF.RESULTS Individuals with DF exhibited higher mean blood glucose(MBG)levels and increased proportions of time above range(TAR),TAR level 1,and TAR level 2,but lower TIR(all P<0.001).Patients with DF had significantly lower rates of achieving target ranges for TIR,TAR,and TAR level 2 than those without DF(all P<0.05).Logistic regression analysis revealed that GRI,MBG,and TAR level 1 were positively associated with DF risk,while TIR was inversely correlated(all P<0.05).Achieving TIR and TAR was inversely correlated with white blood cell count and glycated hemoglobin A1c levels(P<0.05).Additionally,achieving TAR was influenced by fasting plasma glucose,body mass index,diabetes duration,and antidiabetic medication use.CONCLUSION CGM metrics,particularly TIR and GRI,are significantly associated with the risk of DF in T2DM,emphasizing the importance of improved glucose control.

Risk factors, prevention and screening of colorectal cancer: A rising problem

Colorectal cancer(CRC)is the third most commonly diagnosed cancer and the second leading cause of cancer death worldwide.The leading risk factors for CRC include male gender,age over 50,family history,obesity,tobacco smoking,alco-hol consumption,and unhealthy diet.CRC screening methods vary considerably between countries and depend on incidence,economic resources and healthcare structure.Important aspects of screening include adherence,which can vary signi-ficantly across ethnic and socioeconomic groups.Basic concepts of CRC screening include pre-stratification of patients by identifying risk factors and then using fecal immunochemical test or guaiac-based fecal occult blood test and/or colono-scopy or radiologic imaging techniques.Technological capabilities for CRC scree-ning are rapidly evolving and include stool DNA test,liquid biopsy,virtual colo-nography,and the use of artificial intelligence.A CRC prevention strategy should be comprehensive and include active patient education along with targeted imple-mentation of screening.

Optimizing risk management for post-amputation wound complications in diabetic patients: Focus on glycemic and immunosuppressive control

This study highlights the importance of identifying and addressing risk factors associated with wound complications following transtibial amputation in diabetic patients.These amputations,often necessitated by severe diabetic foot ulcers,carry significant risks of postoperative complications such as infection and delayed wound healing.Elevated hemoglobin A1c levels,indicative of poor glycemic control,and a history of kidney transplantation,due to required immunosuppressive therapy,are key factors influencing these outcomes.This paper emphasizes the need for enhanced glycemic management and personalized postoperative care,particularly for immunocompromised individuals,to minimize complications and improve patient prognosis.Future research should focus on prospective studies to validate targeted interventions and optimize care strategies,ultimately aiming to reduce the healthcare burden associated with diabetic foot complications.

Significant risk factors for intensive care unit-acquired weakness:A processing strategy based on repeated machine learning

BACKGROUND Intensive care unit-acquired weakness(ICU-AW)is a common complication that significantly impacts the patient's recovery process,even leading to adverse outcomes.Currently,there is a lack of effective preventive measures.AIM To identify significant risk factors for ICU-AW through iterative machine learning techniques and offer recommendations for its prevention and treatment.METHODS Patients were categorized into ICU-AW and non-ICU-AW groups on the 14th day post-ICU admission.Relevant data from the initial 14 d of ICU stay,such as age,comorbidities,sedative dosage,vasopressor dosage,duration of mechanical ventilation,length of ICU stay,and rehabilitation therapy,were gathered.The relationships between these variables and ICU-AW were examined.Utilizing iterative machine learning techniques,a multilayer perceptron neural network model was developed,and its predictive performance for ICU-AW was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic curve.RESULTS Within the ICU-AW group,age,duration of mechanical ventilation,lorazepam dosage,adrenaline dosage,and length of ICU stay were significantly higher than in the non-ICU-AW group.Additionally,sepsis,multiple organ dysfunction syndrome,hypoalbuminemia,acute heart failure,respiratory failure,acute kidney injury,anemia,stress-related gastrointestinal bleeding,shock,hypertension,coronary artery disease,malignant tumors,and rehabilitation therapy ratios were significantly higher in the ICU-AW group,demonstrating statistical significance.The most influential factors contributing to ICU-AW were identified as the length of ICU stay(100.0%)and the duration of mechanical ventilation(54.9%).The neural network model predicted ICU-AW with an area under the curve of 0.941,sensitivity of 92.2%,and specificity of 82.7%.CONCLUSION The main factors influencing ICU-AW are the length of ICU stay and the duration of mechanical ventilation.A primary preventive strategy,when feasible,involves minimizing both ICU stay and mechanical ventilation duration.

Climate change drives flooding risk increases in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin(YRB)has experienced severe floods and continuous riverbed elevation throughout history.Global climate change has been suggested to be driving a worldwide increase in flooding risk.However,owing to insufficient evidence,the quantitative correlation between flooding and climate change remains illdefined.We present a long time series of maximum flood discharge in the YRB dating back to 1843 compiled from historical documents and instrument measurements.Variations in yearly maximum flood discharge show distinct periods:a dramatic decreasing period from 1843 to 1950,and an oscillating gentle decreasing from 1950 to 2021,with the latter period also showing increasing more extreme floods.A Mann-Kendall test analysis suggests that the latter period can be further split into two distinct sub-periods:an oscillating gentle decreasing period from 1950 to 2000,and a clear recent increasing period from 2000 to 2021.We further predict that climate change will cause an ongoing remarkable increase in future flooding risk and an∼44.4 billion US dollars loss of floods in the YRB in 2100.

Risk Assessment of Deep-Water Horizontal X-Tree Installation

Due to the high potential risk and many influencing factors of subsea horizontal X-tree installation,to guarantee the successful completion of sea trials of domestic subsea horizontal X-trees,this paper established a modular risk evaluation model based on a fuzzy fault tree.First,through the analysis of the main process oftree down and combining the Offshore&Onshore Reliability Data(OREDA)failure statistics and the operation procedure and the data provided by the job,the fault tree model of risk analysis of the tree down installation was established.Then,by introducing the natural language of expert comprehensive evaluation and combining fuzzy principles,quantitative analysis was carried out,and the fuzzy number was used to calculate the failure probability of a basic event and the occurrence probability of a top event.Finally,through a sensitivity analysis of basic events,the basic events of top events significantly affected were determined,and risk control and prevention measures for the corresponding high-risk factors were proposed for subsea horizontal X-tree down installation.