Non-agricultural Population, Employment and Land:An Econometric Study in an Integrated Framework

Abstract： his paper explored the relationships among nonagricultural population, employment and land in an integrated framework, taking account of rural-urban land conversion into Carlino-Mills＇s model on the regional growth. Two-stage-leastsquares and ordinary-least-squares were employed. Recent data for district （grade） cities in China （from 1999 to 2005） were used. Our results showed that： first, urban population influenced non-agricultural employment, and vice versa, but the evidence that non-agricultural employment influenced urban population was stronger than the evidence that urban population influenced non-agricultural employment; second, urban population and non-agricultural employment both influenced ruralurban land conversion, but the evidence that urban population influenced rural urban land conversion was more stronger than the evidence that non-agricultural employment did. We also found that： first, the employment from the secondary industry influenced urban population in a positive way, and vice versa, but the employment from the tertiary industry influenced urban population in a negative way, and vice versa; second, the employment from the secondary industry influenced rural-urban land conversion in a positive way, but the employment from the tertiary industry influenced rural-urban land conversion in a negative way. We can conclude that the key of urbanization is to speed up the process of non-agricultural employment, especially the employment from the tertiary industry, which might promote non-agricultural population, employment and land harmoniously.

Spatial Pattern of Female Non-agricultural Employment and Its Driving Forces in Guangdong Province,China:A Perspective of Individual and Family-level

Promoting women’s employment is not only the need of social and economic development,but also the historical mission of liberating women.This paper uses data from the 1%Population Sample Survey,taken in Guangdong Province in 2015,to explore how women’s marital status,education,and family environment affect the female non-agricultural employment rate(FNAER)on a county scale using a spatial-lag model.The results show that:1)The female non-agricultural employment rate in counties of Guangdong Province is low,with more than three-quarters of counties having female non-agricultural employment rate less than 50%.Moreover,the spatial distribution of FNAER is uneven,with the high-value areas concentrated in the southeast and the low-value areas mainly distributed in the central and western parts of Guangdong Province.2)From the perspective of industry,there are significant spatial differences among women.In the southeast,women are mainly engaged in the secondary industry,while in the central and western regions,women are mainly engaged in the tertiary industry.3)Women having better skills and more effective support from the elderly can improve the FNAER.Women having lower skills,smaller-scale families,a higher fertility rate,and households with two or more elderly members have a negative effect on the FNAER.4)Public policies suggest that improving women’s education and their family environment,building social welfare facilities,and repairing the family environment will increase the FNAER.

Relationship between Farmland Use Right Circulation and Non-agricultural Employment——Based on Survey Data from Eastern and Western China

Relationship between Chinese rural non-agricultural employment and farmland use circulation has always been a hot research topic without final conclusions.This paper uses survey data of"China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study(CHARLS)"covering 1,549 households of 95 villages in Zhejiang and Gansu Province in 2008.According to the data analysis,Zhejiang Province has a higher ratio of rural households leasing out their farmland than Gansu Province has,while the latter has a higher ratio of rural residents going out for earning a living.In both provinces,non-agricultural employment and farmland use circulation show significant positive correlation,but in Gansu,non-agricultural employment of farmers shows no significant positive correlation with rural households leasing out their farmland.The factor shows that for peasants in underdeveloped regions of west China,they rely more on land because of its social security functions,so they are not willing to lease out their land even when they go to cities for earning a living.For local government,it is not appropriate to promote farmland use circulation by depending on the transfer of rural labor forces,fundamental needs of peasants must be taken into consideration.

Impact of livelihood diversification of rural households on their ecological footprint in agro-pastoral areas of northern China

Human-environment relationship is a focus of academic researches and an understanding of the rela- tionship is important for making effective policies and decisions. In this study, based on rural household survey data of Taibus Banner, Duolun county and Zhengxiangbai Banner in the Inner Mongolia autonomous region of China, we identified the impact of livelihood diversification on ecosystems in these agro-pastoral areas by using the ecological footprint theory and methodology together with the one-way analysis of variance （ANOVA） and correlation analysis methods. In 2011, the total ecological footprint of consumption （EFC） was 0.665 g hm2, and the total ecological footprint of production （EFP） was 2.045 g hm2, which was more than three times the EFC. The ecological footprint of arable land consumption （EFAC） accounted for a large proportion of the EFC, and the ecological footprint of grassland production （EFGP） occupied a large proportion of the EFP. Both the ecological footprint of grassland consumption （EFGC） and EFGP had a significant positive correlation with the income, indicating that income was mainly depended on livestock production and the households with higher incomes consumed more livestock prod- ucts. The full-time farming households （FTFHs） had the highest EFP, ecological footprint of arable land production （EFAP）, EFGP and EFGC, followed by the part-time farming households （PTFHs） and non-farming households （NFHs）, which indicated that part-time farming and non-farming employment reduced the occupancy and con- sumption of rural households on local ecosystems and natural resources to some extent. When farming households engaged in livestock rearing, both the EFAP and EFAC became smaller, while the EFP, EFC, EFGC and EFGP increased significantly. The differences in ecological footprints among different household groups should be taken into account when making ecosystem conservation policies. Encouraging the laborers who have the advantages of participating in non-farming employment to move out of the rural areas and increasing the diversification of liveli- hoods of rural households are important in reducing the environmental pressures and improving the welfare of households in the study area. Moreover, grassland should be utilized more effectively in the future.

How farmers’non-agricultural employment affects rural land circulation in China?

To clarify the impact of non-agricultural employment on rural land circulation in China,we built logit models using the Chinese Household Income Project 2013 dataset,which includes 18,948 household samples over 15 provinces,126 cities and 234 counties of China in 2013.We use the proportion of non-agricultural income,the proportion of non-agricultural laborers and non-agricultural fixed operating assets to reflect the degree of the households’dependence on agriculture,the degree of the households’laborers committed to non-agricultural employment and the stability of non-agricultural employment,respectively.The results show that the stability of non-agricultural employment is an important reason for farmers to transfer out their land,and an increase in non-agricultural income is the fundamental reason.The proportion of non-agricultural assets has the greatest impact on the decision to transfer land,followed by the proportion of non-agricultural income.Per unit increase in the non-agricultural income ratio has a stronger effect on the transfer-out decision than it does on the transfer-in decision,which is a 0.09 increase of the probability of transfer-out the land and a 0.07 decrease of the probability of transfer-in the land.In terms of regional differences,when considering the impact of non-agricultural employment on the land transfer-out decision,the impacts of non-agricultural income and labor force are the greatest in the Central region.The impact of non-agricultural assets is the greatest in the Eastern region.For the Eastern region,the decision to transfer out land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets and the non-agricultural labor force,and the decision to transfer in land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets.In the Central and Western regions,the decision to transfer out land is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets,non-agricultural income and the non-agricultural labor force,in that order.The decision to transfer in land in the Central region is not significantly affected by non-agricultural employment.The decision to transfer in land in the Western region is mainly affected by non-agricultural assets,non-agricultural labor force and non-agricultural income,in that order.We note that non-agricultural assets have a prominent impact on land transfer,which shows that the stability of non-agricultural employment has an important impact on land transfer decision-making.Vocational training for rural labor forces may be an effective means to promote stable non-agricultural employment and simultaneously facilitate rural land circulation,especially in Central and Western China.

田园综合体建设与大学生返乡关系研究

乡村振兴战略是我国应对国际竞争的压舱石,而人才支撑是乡村振兴的核心要素。大学生作为高素质人才的“主力军”,多数不愿返乡就业与创业。其原因在于农村收入低、环境差、缺少社会保障、发展机会少、缺少人际吸引力等。为解决上述问题,研究了田园综合体与大学生返乡的关系。研究发现田园综合体可以提供良好的基础设施、高质量的工作机会以及人际吸引力,是大学生返乡的理想载体。最后提出了田园综合体发展的基本策略。

青海农牧院校大学生就业意向调查分析

文章通过对青海大学农牧学院在校大学生就业意向进行调查、统计、分析与研究,提出要加强大学生就业和创业指导,使学生树立正确的就业观,而学校则要主动适应经济社会发展要求和就业市场需求,加强专业和学科建设、深化教育教学改革、提高人才培养质量。

Analysis on Factors Influencing Supply of Rapeseed in Provinces of China

From the perspective of micro-subjects of rapeseed planting,namely,the rape seed planting farmers,this paper made an analysis on factors influencing supply of rapeseed in provinces of China on the basis of panel data of 14 provinces producing rapeseed. Analysis indicates that decision of rapeseed planting area is influenced by planting area of the previous year and comparative benefits of rapeseed and the substitute crop wheat,while the local non-agricultural employment level exerts little influence on decision of rapeseed planting area. Finally,it came up with pertinent policy recommendations: since lagging influence of previous planting decisions and selection of planting decisions are a long period,formulation and implementation of any policy should consider long-term subsequent effect,instead of excessively focusing on policy objectives; strengthening new technological researches of new rapeseed varieties relying on scientific and technological innovation,enhancing construction of rapeseed production infrastructure,and improving integrated rapeseed production capacity,so as to increase relative income of rapeseed planting.

对锡林郭勒地区农村牧区劳动力转移情况及就业培训问题的探讨

农村牧区劳动力转移就业是劳动力资源和人力资本配置的主要内容,是缩小城乡差距的重要途径,也是解决"三农三牧"问题的基本思路和重要措施之一。文章就内蒙古锡林郭勒(以下简称锡盟)地区农村牧区劳动力转移情况及就业培训问题进行了探讨,首先总结该盟农村牧区劳动力转移现状并与全区水平进行了对比,接下来从五个方面对农村牧区剩余劳动力转移过程存在的主要问题进行了分析,最后针对上述问题提出了五点解决措施,对今后农村牧区劳动力转移问题研究提供一定的理论参考。

劳动力非农就业的减畜效应研究——来自牧区的经验证据

本文基于甘、藏、青、新及内蒙古五省份牧户调查数据,分析2007—2018年中国牧区劳动力向非农产业转移的趋势,并揭示非农就业的减畜效应。结果表明,牧区劳动力非农就业水平逐渐提升,但其远低于农区的平均水平。牧区劳动力非农就业以本地非农就业为主。同时,男性非农就业的参与率要明显高于女性。实证结果表明,非农就业显著降低了牧民养殖规模,并且主要减少了价格波动风险更小畜种的养殖量。异质性分析结果表明,外地非农就业对牧民养殖规模的影响要高于本地非农就业,女性非农就业对牧民养殖规模的影响比男性非农就业更突出。本研究能够为中国牧区劳动力就业、生态保护以及畜产品供给的相关政策制定提供一定的决策参考。

非牧就业、草地流转促进牧户减畜吗?——以青海省典型牧区为例

关注劳动力转移市场和草地流转市场是激励牧户主动减畜的重要途径之一。运用青海省河南蒙古族自治县6个乡镇393户的调研数据,采用OLS回归模型,实证研究了非牧就业、草地流转对牧户采取减畜行为的影响,并进一步分析该影响的异质性。结果发现:(1)外出非牧就业和转出草地均具有显著的减畜效应,同时对于更年轻、文化程度更高的牧户家庭来说,二者的减畜效果更明显。(2)当牧区劳动力非牧就业收入越高,牧户越倾向于采取减畜行为,因此提高牧户非牧就业收入是促进牧户减畜的重要途径。(3)草地流转作为牧户自发性选择行为,当草地自由地在不同牧户间流转交易后,将实现载畜量在牧户群体中的合理分配,达到真正的草畜平衡。

农牧交错区农户生态足迹及其影响因素

利用农牧交错区典型区域农户调查数据,从生产和消费两个方面分析了农户生态足迹及其影响因素。研究结果表明:1)农户生产足迹远远高于消费足迹,草地生产足迹和草地消费足迹分别对农户总生产足迹和总消费足迹具有决定作用;2)农户生态足迹,尤其是草地生产足迹和草地消费足迹与收入水平具有显著正相关关系,农户从事非农就业一定程度上降低了对当地自然资源的占用和消耗;3)少数民族户、畜牧业收入占比大、人均牧草地多的农户,虽然耕地生产足迹和耕地消费足迹较小,但总生产足迹和总消费足迹、草地生产足迹和草地消费足迹均较大。基于农牧交错区脆弱生态系统,建议通过完善生态补偿机制、改变农户粗放化的畜牧业生产方式、促进农户非农就业,降低农户对本区域生态系统的压力。

草原生态补奖政策对农牧户减畜行为的影响——基于非农牧就业调解效应的分析

本文阐释了草原生态补奖政策影响农牧户减畜行为的机理,并引入非农牧就业变量,基于内蒙古与宁夏自2010年以来持续从事牧业生产的281份农牧户调查数据,实证分析了草原生态补奖政策对农牧户减畜行为的影响以及非农牧就业对草原生态补奖政策影响农牧户减畜行为的调节效应。研究结果表明:(1)自草原生态补奖政策实施以来,样本农牧户户均养羊数量不降反升,减畜发生率与减畜率均较低,减畜形势依然严峻;(2)补奖金额与农牧户是否减畜以及减畜率之间均存在稳健的"U型"关系,且正处在"U型"关系的左侧,即当前草原生态补奖政策对农牧户减畜具有不利影响,且由于补奖收入过低,不利影响仍将继续加深;(3)非农牧就业对农牧户是否减畜以及减畜率均具有显著的正向促进作用,且在草原生态补奖政策影响农牧户是否减畜中具有正向调节作用,但在政策影响农牧户减畜率中的调节作用并不明显,表明通过提高农牧户的非农牧就业收入占比能够缓解草原生态补奖政策对农牧户是否减畜的不利影响,但对缓解政策对减畜率的不利影响作用不明显。