Nucleation of Supercooled Water by Neutrons: Latitude Dependence and Implications for Cloud Modelling

It has recently been shown that incident particles, neutrons, can initiate the freezing in a supercooled water volume. This new finding may have ramifications for the interpretation of both experimental data on the nucleation of laboratory samples of supercooled water and perhaps more importantly on the interpretation of ice nucleation involved in cloud physics. For example, if some fraction of the cloud nucleation previously attributed to dust, soot, or aerosols has been caused by cosmogenic neutrons, fresh consideration is required in the context of climate models. Moreover, as cosmogenic neutrons, most being muon-induced, have much greater flux at high latitudes, estimates of ice nucleates in these regions may be larger than required to accurately model cloud and condensation properties. This discrepancy has been pointed out in IPCC reports. Our paper discusses the connection between the new concept of neutrons nucleating supercooled water and the need for a new source of nucleation in high latitude clouds, ideally causing others to review current data, or to analyse future data with this idea in mind. .

Climate prediction of the seasonal sea-ice early melt onset in the Bering Sea

基于大尺度环流异常对海冰消融的影响过程,本文采用年际增量预测方法研制了白令海季节性海冰早期消融开始日期(EMO)的统计预测模型.预测模型选取了3个具有明确物理意义的预测因子:1月波弗特高压,前期11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压,以及11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率。1月波弗特高压可以通过海气相互作用影响白令海地区海温异常,该海温异常能够从1月持续到3月,进而影响白令海EMO.11月东西伯利亚地区海平面气压与11月至次年2月北太平洋中纬度东部海温密切相关。伴随着北太平洋中纬度东部冷海温异常的出现,白令海地区会出现暖海温异常,进而导致白令海海冰范围减少,EMO较晚.1月北极偶极子异常是11月东欧平原积雪覆盖率影响次年白令海EMO的桥梁之一.1981-2022年的交叉检验结果表明:统计模型对白令海EMO具有较好的预测能力,预测与观测的EMO之间时间相关系数达到了0.45,超过了99%的置信水平.统计模型对白令海EMO正常年份和异常年份的预测准确率分别为60%和41%.

基于Logistic回归和神经网络的甘肃省道路结冰预警模型研究

为更好地开展公路交通道路结冰预报预警服务工作,利用甘肃省道路结冰高发区路段(甘肃武威以东)的交通气象站逐小时观测资料,分析道路结冰空间分布特征,探讨道路结冰与气象要素的相关性,采用Logistic回归法和神经网络算法构建道路结冰预警模型。结果表明:甘肃省道路结冰主要集中在冬季(12月至次年2月),其中00:00—10:00和22:00—23:00(北京时)出现道路结冰的频率较高。Logistic回归模型和神经网络模型对未发生结冰事件的预测准确率较高,分别为91.9%和96.2%;针对发生结冰事件,Logistic回归模型的预测准确率较低,为31.6%,而神经网络模型的预测准确率可达44.6%,说明2种模型对道路结冰预警有一定指示意义,神经网络模型预测效果优于Logistic回归模型。

一种支持MDD的ICES-Modeling建模语言和建模工具

随着模型驱动体系结构的理论和技术的不断发展,模型已成为软件开发的核心元素。因此,支持模型驱动体系结构的建模语言和建模工具成为研究热点。本文提出一种支持模型驱动的软件开发的ICES-Modeling建模语言,该语言融合了现有的建模方法的一些思想,可以有效地描述领域内的概念,概念与概念之间的关系。还针对该建模语言,设计并开发了建模工具,该建模工具具有支持建模语言的定义,方便模型的理解,支持多角度建模等特点。

Kinetic models of natural gas combustion in an internal combustion engine

In this study, combustion of methane was simulated using four kinetic models of methane in CHEMKIN 4.1.1 for 0-D closed internal combustion （IC） engine reactor. Two detailed （GRIMECH3.0 ＆ UBC MECH2.0） and two reduced （One step ＆ Four steps） models were examined for various IC engine designs. The detailed models （GRIMECH3.0, ＆ UBC MECH2.0） and 4-step models successfully predicted the combustion while global model was unable to predict any combustion reaction. This study illustrated that the detailed model showed good concordances in the prediction of chamber pressure, temperature and major combustion species profiles. The detailed models also exhibited the capabilities to predict the pollutants formation in an IC engine while the reduced schemes showed failure in the prediction of pollutants emissions. Although, there are discrepancies among the profiles of four considered model, the detailed models （GRIMECH3.0 ＆ UBC MECH2.0） produced the acceptable agreement in the species prediction and formation of pollutants.

A coupled ice-ocean model for the Bohai SeaⅡ.Case study

The coupled ice- ocean model for the Bohai Sea is used for simulating the freezing, melting, and variation of ice cover and the heat bal- ance at the sea- ice, air- ice, and air- sea interfaces of the Bohai Sea during the entire winter in 1998￣1999 and 2000￣2001. The cou- pled model is forced by real time numerical weather prediction fields. The results show that the thermodynamic effects of atmosphere and ocean are very important for the evolvement of ice in the Bohai Sea, especially in the period of ice freezing and melting. Ocean heat flux plays a key role in the thermodynamic coupling. The simulation also presents the different thermodynamic features in the ice covered region and the marginal ice zone. Ice thickness, heat budget at the interface, and surface sea temperature, etc. between the two representative points are discussed.

Modeling of Arctic Sea Ice Variability During 1948–2009: Validation of Two Versions of the Los Alamos Sea Ice Model(CICE)

The Los Alamos sea ice model(CICE) is used to simulate the Arctic sea ice variability from 1948 to 2009. Two versions of CICE are validated through comparison with Hadley Centre Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature(Had ISST) observations. Version 5.0 of CICE with elastic-viscous-plastic(EVP) dynamics simulates a September Arctic sea ice concentration(SASIC) trend of –0.619 × 1012 m2 per decade from 1969 to 2009, which is very close to the observed trend(-0.585 × 1012 m2 per decade). Version 4.0 of CICE with EVP dynamics underestimates the SASIC trend(-0.470 × 1012 m2 per decade). Version 5.0 has a higher correlation(0.742) with observation than version 4.0(0.653). Both versions of CICE simulate the seasonal cycle of the Arctic sea ice, but version 5.0 outperforms version 4.0 in both phase and amplitude. The timing of the minimum and maximum sea ice coverage occurs a little earlier(phase advancing) in both versions. Simulations also show that the September Arctic sea ice volume(SASIV) has a faster decreasing trend than SASIC.

Greenland Ice Sheet Contribution to Future Global Sea Level Rise based on CMIP5 Models

Sea level rise （SLR） is one of the major socioeconomic risks associated with global warming. Mass losses from the Greenland ice sheet （GrIS） will be partially responsible for future SLR, although there are large uncertainties in modeled climate and ice sheet behavior. We used the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS （Simulation COde for POLythermal Ice Sheets） driven by climate projections from 20 models in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP5） to estimate the GrlS contribution to global SLR. Based on the outputs of the 20 models, it is estimated that the GrIS will contribute 0-16 （0-27） cm to global SLR by 2100 under the Representative Concentration Pathways （RCP） 4.5 （RCP 8.5） scenarios. The projected SLR increases further to 7-22 （7-33） cm with 2~basal sliding included. In response to the results of the multimodel ensemble mean, the ice sheet model projects a global SLR of 3 cm and 7 cm （10 cm and 13 cm with 2~basal sliding） under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively. In addition, our results suggest that the uncertainty in future sea level projection caused by the large spread in climate projections could be reduced with model-evaluation and the selective use of model outputs.

LICOM Model Datasets for the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project

The datasets of two Ocean Model Intercomparison Project(OMIP)simulation experiments from the LASG/IAP Climate Ocean Model,version 3(LICOM3),forced by two different sets of atmospheric surface data,are described in this paper.The experiment forced by CORE-II(Co-ordinated Ocean–Ice Reference Experiments,Phase II)data(1948–2009)is called OMIP1,and that forced by JRA55-do(surface dataset for driving ocean–sea-ice models based on Japanese 55-year atmospheric reanalysis)data(1958–2018)is called OMIP2.First,the improvement of LICOM from CMIP5 to CMIP6 and the configurations of the two experiments are described.Second,the basic performances of the two experiments are validated using the climatological-mean and interannual time scales from observation.We find that the mean states,interannual variabilities,and long-term linear trends can be reproduced well by the two experiments.The differences between the two datasets are also discussed.Finally,the usage of these data is described.These datasets are helpful toward understanding the origin system bias of the fully coupled model.

The in situ observation of modelled sea ice drift characteristics in the Bohai Sea

Sea ice drift is mainly controlled by ocean currents, local wind, and internal ice stress. Information on sea ice motion, especially in situ synchronous observation of an ice velocity, a current velocity, and a wind speed, is of great significance to identify ice drift characteristics. A sea ice substitute, the so-called "modelled ice", which is made by polypropylene material with a density similar to Bohai Sea ice, is used to complete a free drift experiment in the open sea. The trajectories of isolated modelled ice, currents and wind in the Bohai Sea during non-frozen and frozen periods are obtained. The results show that the currents play a major role while the wind plays a minor role in the free drift of isolated modelled ice when the wind is mild in the Bohai Sea. The modelled ice drift is significantly affected by the ocean current and wind based on the ice–current–wind relationship established by a multiple linear regression. The modelled ice velocity calculated by the multiple linear regression is close to that of the in situ observation, the magnitude of the error between the calculated and observed ice velocities is less than12.05%, and the velocity direction error is less than 6.21°. Thus, the ice velocity can be estimated based on the observed current velocity and wind speed when the in situ observed ice velocity is missing. And the modelled ice of same thickness with a smaller density is more sensitive to the current velocity and the wind speed changes. In addition, the modelled ice drift characteristics are shown to be close to those of the real sea ice, which indicates that the modelled ice can be used as a good substitute of real ice for in situ observation of the free ice drift in the open sea, which helps solve time availability, safety and logistics problems related to in situ observation on real ice.

Light-absorbing Particles in Snow and Ice: Measurement and Modeling of Climatic and Hydrological impact

Light absorbing particles（LAP, e.g., black carbon, brown carbon, and dust） influence water and energy budgets of the atmosphere and snowpack in multiple ways. In addition to their effects associated with atmospheric heating by absorption of solar radiation and interactions with clouds, LAP in snow on land and ice can reduce the surface reflectance（a.k.a., surface darkening）, which is likely to accelerate the snow aging process and further reduces snow albedo and increases the speed of snowpack melt. LAP in snow and ice（LAPSI） has been identified as one of major forcings affecting climate change, e.g.in the fourth and fifth assessment reports of IPCC. However, the uncertainty level in quantifying this effect remains very high. In this review paper, we document various technical methods of measuring LAPSI and review the progress made in measuring the LAPSI in Arctic, Tibetan Plateau and other mid-latitude regions. We also report the progress in modeling the mass concentrations, albedo reduction, radiative forcing, and climatic and hydrological impact of LAPSI at global and regional scales. Finally we identify some research needs for reducing the uncertainties in the impact of LAPSI on global and regional climate and the hydrological cycle.

Mean Climatic Characteristics in High Northern Latitudes in an Ocean-Sea Ice-Atmosphere Coupled Model

Emphasizing the model's ability in mean climate reproduction in high northern latitudes, results from an ocean-sea ice-atmosphere coupled model are analyzed. It is shown that the coupled model can simulate the main characteristics of annual mean global sea surface temperature and sea level pressure well, but the extent of ice coverage produced in the Southern Hemisphere is not large enough. The main distribution characteristics of simulated sea level pressure and temperature at 850 hPa in high northern latitudes agree well with their counterparts in the NCEP reanalysis dataset, and the model can reproduce the Arctic Oscillation (AO) mode successfully. The simulated seasonal variation of sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere is rational and its main distribution features in winter agree well with those from observations. But the ice concentration in the sea ice edge area close to the Eurasian continent in the inner Arctic Ocean is much larger than the observation. There are significant interannual variation signals in the simulated sea ice concentration in winter in high northern latitudes and the most significant area lies in the Greenland Sea, followed by the Barents Sea. All of these features agree well with the results from observations.

A viscoelastic-plastic constitutive model with Mohr-Coulomb yielding criterion for sea ice dynamics

A new viscoelastic-plastic （VEP） constitutive model for sea ice dynamics was developed based on continuum mechanics. This model consists of four components： Kelvin-Vogit viscoelastic model, Mohr-Coulomb yielding criterion, associated normality flow rule for plastic rehololgy, and hydrostatic pressure. The numerical simulations for ice motion in an idealized rectangular basin were made using smoothed particle hydrodynamics （SPH） method, and compared with the analytical solution as well as those based on the modified viscous plastic（VP） model and static ice jam theory. These simulations show that the new VEP model can simulate ice dynamics accurately. The new constitutive model was further applied to simulate ice dynamics of the Bohai Sea and compared with the traditional VP, and modified VP models. The results of the VEP model are compared better with the satellite remote images, and the simulated ice conditions in the JZ20-2 oil platform area were more reasonable.

A coupled ice-ocean model for the Bohai Sea Ⅰ. Study on model and parameter

According to the earlier international studies on the coupled iceocean model and the hydrology, meteorology, and icefeatures in the Bohai Sea, a coupled iceocean model is developed based on the National Marine EnvironmentForecast Centers (NMEFC) numerical forecasting ice model of the Bohai Sea and the Princeton ocean model (POM).In the coupled model, the transfer of momentum and heat between ocean and ice is two-way, and the change of icethickness and concentration depends on heat budget not only at the surface and bottom of ice, but also at the surfaceof open water between ices. The dynamic and thermodynamic coupling process is expatiated emphatically. Somethermodynamic parameters are discussed as well.

Design and Numerical Simulation of an Arctic Ocean Circulation and Thermodynamic Sea－Ice Model

In this paper, the first version of a new Arctic Ocean circulation and thermodynamic sea-ice model is presentedby the authors based on the framework of a twenty-layer World Oceanic general circulation model developed byZhang et al. in 1994. The model's domain covers the Arctic Ocean and Greenland-Norwegian Seas with the horizontal resolution of 200 km×200 km on a stereographic projection plane. In vertical, the model uses the Eta-coordinate(Sigma modified to have quasi-horizontal coordinate surfaces) and has ten unevenly-spaced layers to cover the deepest water column of 3000 m. Two 150-year integrations of coupling the ocean circulation model with the sea-icemodel have been performed with seasonally cyclic surface boundary conditions. The only difference between the tWoexperiments is in the model's geography. Some preliminary analyses of the experimental results have been done focused on the following aspects: (1) surface layer temperature, salinity and current; (2) the' Atlantic Layer'; (3)sea-ice cover and its seasonal variation. In comparison with the available observational data, these results are acceptable with reasonable accuracy.

A hybrid Lagrangian-Eulerian numerical model for sea-ice dynamics

A hybrid Lagrangian - Eulerian （HLE） method is developed for sea ice dynamics, which combines the high computational efficiency of finite difference method （FDM） with the high numerical accuracy of smoothed particle hydrodynamics （SPH）. In this HLE model, the sea ice cover is represented by a group of Lagrangian ice particles with their own thicknesses and concentrations. These ice variables are interpolated to the Eularian gird nodes using the Gaussian interpolation function. The FDM is used to determine the ice velocities at Eulerian grid nodes, and the velocities of Lagrangian ice particles are interpolated from these grid velocities with the Gaussian function also. The thicknesses and concentrations of ice particles are determined based on their new locations. With the HLE numerical model, the ice ridging process in a rectangular basin is simulated, and the simulated results are validated with the analytical solution. This method is also applied to the simulation of sea ice dynamics in a vortex wind field. At last, this HLE model is applied to the Bohai Sea, and the simulated concentration, thickness and velocity match the satellite images and the field observed data well.

A modified discrete element model for sea ice dynamics

Considering the discontinuous characteristics of sea ice on various scales,a modified discrete element model（DEM） for sea ice dynamics is developed based on the granular material rheology.In this modified DEM,a soft sea ice particle element is introduced as a self-adjustive particle size function.Each ice particle can be treated as an assembly of ice floes,with its concentration and thickness changing to variable sizes under the conservation of mass.In this model,the contact forces among ice particles are calculated using a viscous-elastic-plastic model,while the maximum shear forces are described with the Mohr-Coulomb friction law.With this modified DEM,the ice flow dynamics is simulated under the drags of wind and current in a channel of various widths.The thicknesses,concentrations and velocities of ice particles are obtained,and then reasonable dynamic process is analyzed.The sea ice dynamic process is also simulated in a vortex wind field.Taking the influence of thermodynamics into account,this modified DEM will be improved in the future work.

Observations and modeling of the ice-ocean conditions in the coastal Chukchi and Beaufort Seas

The Chukchi and Beaufort Seas include several important hydrological features： inflow of the Pacific water, Alaska coast current （ ACC ）, the seasonal to perennial sea ice cover, and landfast ice ＇along the Alaskan coast. The dynamics of this coupled ice-ocean system is important for both regional scale oceanography and large-scale global climate change research. A mumber of moorings were deployed in the area by JAMSTEC since 1992, and the data revealed highly variable characteristics of the hydrological environment. A regional high-resolution coupled ice-ocean model of the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas was established to simulate the ice-ocean environment and unique seasonal landfast ice in the coastal Beaufort Sea. The model results reproduced the Beaufort gyre and the ACC. The depthaveraged annual mean ocean currents along the Beaufort Sea coast and shelf hreak compared well with data from four moored ADCPs, but the simulated velocity had smaller standard deviations, which indicate small-scale eddies were frequent in the region. The model resuits captured the sea,real variations of sea ice area as compared with remote sensing data, and the simulated sea ice velocity showed an ahnost stationary area along the Beaufort Sea coast that was similar to the observed landfast ice extent. It is the combined effects of the weak oceanic current near the coast, a prevailing wind with an onshore component, the opposite direction of the ocean current, and the blocking hy the coastline that make the Beaufort Sea coastal areas prone to the formation of landfast ice.

Practical Model of Sea Ice Thickness of Bohai Sea Based on MODIS Data

Sea ice thickness is one of the most important input parameters in the studies on sea ice disaster prevention and mitigation. It is also the most important content in remote sensing monitoring of sea ice. In this study, a practical model of sea ice thickness(PMSIT) was proposed based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) data. In the proposed model, the MODIS data of the first band were used to estimate sea ice thickness and the difference between the second-band reflectance and the fifth-band reflectance in the MODIS data was calculated to obtain the difference attenuation index(DAI) of each pixel. The obtained DAI was used to estimate the integrated attenuation coefficient of the first band of the MODIS at the pixel level. Then the model was used to estimate sea ice thickness in the Bohai Sea with the MODIS data and then validated with the actual sea ice survey data. The validation results showed that the proposed model and corresponding parameterization scheme could largely avoid the estimation error of sea ice thickness caused by the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of sea ice extinction and allowed the error of 18.7% compared with the measured sea ice thickness.

Inter-comparisons of thermodynamic sea-ice modeling results using various parameterizations of radiative flux

Radiative fluxes are of primary importance in the energy and mass balance of the sea-ice cover. Various parameterizations of the radiative fluxes are studied in a thermodynamic sea-ice model. Model outputs of the surface radiative and heat fluxes and mass balance are compared with observations. The contribution of short-wave radiation is limited to a long part of winter. Therefore, simple schemes are often sufficient. Errors in estimations of the short-wave radiation are due mainly to cloud effects and occasionally to multi-reflection between surface and ice crystals in the air. The long-wave radiation plays an important role in the ice surface heat and mass balance during most part of a winter. The effect of clouds on the accuracy of the simple radiative schemes is critical, which needs further attention. In general, the accuracy of an ice model depends on that of the radiative fluxes.