The concentrations of five metals(Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd and Hg) were measured in sediments obtained before and after the establishment of Techeng Island Special Marine Reserves(TCISMR) in Zhanjiang Bay to evaluate the ecolog...The concentrations of five metals(Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd and Hg) were measured in sediments obtained before and after the establishment of Techeng Island Special Marine Reserves(TCISMR) in Zhanjiang Bay to evaluate the ecological risk of heavy metals. The results showed that average values of potential ecological risk indexes of heavy metals at all stations increased slightly from 32.09 to 30.54 after establishment of TCISMR. Optimal semivariance simulation showed that the contents of five heavy metals have strong spatial correlations in August 2010(before), while this correlations weakened in April 2013(after establishment of TCISMR), suggesting that the main sources of heavy metals changed. The Hakanson Risk Index(HRI) values in Donghai levee, central and southern parts of Zhanjiang harbor were high up to 60.13 and 46.46, respectively. And Zhanjiang Bay Channel, the areas around special marine reserves, the artificial reef areas and mangrove areas at south of Techeng Island are the areas with low ecological risk and high ecological value, which should be treated as the prior ecological protection areas. Our study provided a priority control pattern of heavy metal pollution in TCISMR, which greatly benefits the sustainable development and resource protection in Zhanjiang Bay.展开更多
In this paper we examine the large deviations principle (LDP) for sequences of classic Cramér-Lundberg risk processes under suitable time and scale modifications, and also for a wide class of claim distributions ...In this paper we examine the large deviations principle (LDP) for sequences of classic Cramér-Lundberg risk processes under suitable time and scale modifications, and also for a wide class of claim distributions including (the non-super- exponential) exponential claims. We prove two large deviations principles: first, we obtain the LDP for risk processes on D∈[0,1] with the Skorohod topology. In this case, we provide an explicit form for the rate function, in which the safety loading condition appears naturally. The second theorem allows us to obtain the LDP for Aggregate Claims processes on D∈[0,∞) with a different time-scale modification. As an application of the first result we estimate the ruin probability, and for the second result we work explicit calculations for the case of exponential claims.展开更多
As the core economic variable in the process of the integration of world economy,the change of the exchange rate has an important impact on the import and export,foreign exchange reserves,interest rates,capital flows ...As the core economic variable in the process of the integration of world economy,the change of the exchange rate has an important impact on the import and export,foreign exchange reserves,interest rates,capital flows and other macro and microeconomic factors.This paper first analyzes the status quo of RMB exchange rate risk and the advanced experience of exchange rate management of other countries.Then,the empirical method is used to analyze the characteristics of RMB exchange rate fluctuation based on the day-frequency data of USD/RMB,GBP/RMB,EUR/RMB and JPY/RMB from December 2011 to December 2016.This paper also respectively uses the GARCH,TARCH,EGARCH and PARCH model to fit four representative foreign currencies against RMB,and selects the optimal model to calculate VaR value.Finally,validity of the data is verified through the Chi-square distribution test.The empirical results show that the four sequences are non-normal and first-order monotonic sequences.Besides,there is a significantly high-order ARCH effect,and the GARCH family model has a better fitting effect.JPY/RMB is with lower exchange rate risk,while the fluctuation of EUR/RMB is significantly greater than other currencies.According to the international situation of financial market,the status quo of RMB exchange rate and the conclusion of empirical research,this paper puts forward that the marketization and internationalization of RMB exchange rate should be based on improving the financial system and environment.It is also suggested that the government should properly intervene in the foreign exchange market and make good use of the risk measurement model and commercial banks should further develop the financial derivatives to hedge the foreign exchange risk.展开更多
This paper clarifies the distinctions between loan loss reserves （LLR）, expected loss （EL）, and loan loss provisions （LLP）. The paper also includes information on individual and collective impairment assessment ...This paper clarifies the distinctions between loan loss reserves （LLR）, expected loss （EL）, and loan loss provisions （LLP）. The paper also includes information on individual and collective impairment assessment of local commercial banks in Malaysia collected from their annual reports. Most banks have maintained collective assessment （CA） allowance ratio of lower than 1.2% of gross total loans.展开更多
Using an unbalanced panel data covering 75 countries from 1991 to 2019,the authors explore how the political risk impacts on food reserve ratio.The empirical findings show that an increasing political risk negatively ...Using an unbalanced panel data covering 75 countries from 1991 to 2019,the authors explore how the political risk impacts on food reserve ratio.The empirical findings show that an increasing political risk negatively affects food reserve ratio,and the same effects hold for both internal risk and external risk.Moreover,the authors find that the increasing external or internal risks both negatively affect food production and food exports,but external risk does not significantly impact food imports and it positively impacts food consumption,while internal risk negatively impacts food imports and food consumption.The results suggest that most governments have difficulty raising subsequent food reserve ratios in face of an increasing political risk,no matter if it is an internal risk or an external risk although the mechanisms behind the impacts are different.展开更多
Increased hazards threatening the United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)-designated sites and endangering cultural heritage and community well-being require attention and action.Con-si...Increased hazards threatening the United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)-designated sites and endangering cultural heritage and community well-being require attention and action.Con-sidering the pivotal role of UNESCO sites in conservation and development,this study assessed their levels of disaster preparedness.The absence of studies assessing disaster awareness,risk perception,and preparedness among UNESCO site actors,as well as the pivotal place of preparedness within the Disaster Risk Management(DRM)cycle justifies this research.Applying the tenets of the Person-Relative-to-Event framework,we hypothe-sized that a strong positive correlation exists between perceived risks,resources,and disaster preparedness.To collect pertinent data,we employed an embedded mixed-method design and conducted an online questionnaire survey yielding 141 responses from 59 countries.From the results of relevant analyses,wildfires,floods,and droughts are top hazards occurring frequently in UNESCO sites,with significant concerns about pollution and habitat loss during future events.Smartphones emerged as the most available crucial DRM resource,with higher availability of DRM resources correlating positively and significantly with sites’preparedness.Our findings con-tribute valuable insights to address missing links for disaster-ready and resilient UNESCO sites,promoting their preservation for future generations.展开更多
The Automated Actuarial Pricing and Underwriting Model has been enhanced and expanded through the implementation of Artificial Intelligence to automate three distinct actuarial functions: loss reserving, pricing, and ...The Automated Actuarial Pricing and Underwriting Model has been enhanced and expanded through the implementation of Artificial Intelligence to automate three distinct actuarial functions: loss reserving, pricing, and underwriting. This model utilizes data analytics based on Artificial Intelligence to merge microfinance and car insurance services. Introducing and applying a no-claims bonus rate system, comprising base rates, variable rates, and final rates, to three key policyholder categories significantly reduces the occurrence and impact of claims while encouraging increased premium payments. We have enhanced frequency-severity models with eight machine learning algorithms and adjusted the Automated Actuarial Pricing and Underwriting Model for inflation, resulting in outstanding performance. Among the machine learning models utilized, the Random Forest (RANGER) achieved the highest Total Aggregate Comprehensive Automated Actuarial Loss Reserve Risk Pricing Balance (ACAALRRPB), establishing itself as the preferred model for developing Automated Actuarial Underwriting models tailored to specific policyholder categories.展开更多
基金jointly funded by the Research Fund Program of Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Environmental Pollution Control and Remediation Technology (No.2013K0011)the State Oceanic Administration Key Laboratory of Sea area Management Technology Fund (No.201711)+2 种基金the Guangdong MEPP Fund (No.GDOE [2019]A46)the GDNRC (No.[2020]067)the South China Sea Branch Secretary fund (No.1673)。
文摘The concentrations of five metals(Cu, Pb, Zn, Cd and Hg) were measured in sediments obtained before and after the establishment of Techeng Island Special Marine Reserves(TCISMR) in Zhanjiang Bay to evaluate the ecological risk of heavy metals. The results showed that average values of potential ecological risk indexes of heavy metals at all stations increased slightly from 32.09 to 30.54 after establishment of TCISMR. Optimal semivariance simulation showed that the contents of five heavy metals have strong spatial correlations in August 2010(before), while this correlations weakened in April 2013(after establishment of TCISMR), suggesting that the main sources of heavy metals changed. The Hakanson Risk Index(HRI) values in Donghai levee, central and southern parts of Zhanjiang harbor were high up to 60.13 and 46.46, respectively. And Zhanjiang Bay Channel, the areas around special marine reserves, the artificial reef areas and mangrove areas at south of Techeng Island are the areas with low ecological risk and high ecological value, which should be treated as the prior ecological protection areas. Our study provided a priority control pattern of heavy metal pollution in TCISMR, which greatly benefits the sustainable development and resource protection in Zhanjiang Bay.
文摘In this paper we examine the large deviations principle (LDP) for sequences of classic Cramér-Lundberg risk processes under suitable time and scale modifications, and also for a wide class of claim distributions including (the non-super- exponential) exponential claims. We prove two large deviations principles: first, we obtain the LDP for risk processes on D∈[0,1] with the Skorohod topology. In this case, we provide an explicit form for the rate function, in which the safety loading condition appears naturally. The second theorem allows us to obtain the LDP for Aggregate Claims processes on D∈[0,∞) with a different time-scale modification. As an application of the first result we estimate the ruin probability, and for the second result we work explicit calculations for the case of exponential claims.
文摘As the core economic variable in the process of the integration of world economy,the change of the exchange rate has an important impact on the import and export,foreign exchange reserves,interest rates,capital flows and other macro and microeconomic factors.This paper first analyzes the status quo of RMB exchange rate risk and the advanced experience of exchange rate management of other countries.Then,the empirical method is used to analyze the characteristics of RMB exchange rate fluctuation based on the day-frequency data of USD/RMB,GBP/RMB,EUR/RMB and JPY/RMB from December 2011 to December 2016.This paper also respectively uses the GARCH,TARCH,EGARCH and PARCH model to fit four representative foreign currencies against RMB,and selects the optimal model to calculate VaR value.Finally,validity of the data is verified through the Chi-square distribution test.The empirical results show that the four sequences are non-normal and first-order monotonic sequences.Besides,there is a significantly high-order ARCH effect,and the GARCH family model has a better fitting effect.JPY/RMB is with lower exchange rate risk,while the fluctuation of EUR/RMB is significantly greater than other currencies.According to the international situation of financial market,the status quo of RMB exchange rate and the conclusion of empirical research,this paper puts forward that the marketization and internationalization of RMB exchange rate should be based on improving the financial system and environment.It is also suggested that the government should properly intervene in the foreign exchange market and make good use of the risk measurement model and commercial banks should further develop the financial derivatives to hedge the foreign exchange risk.
文摘This paper clarifies the distinctions between loan loss reserves （LLR）, expected loss （EL）, and loan loss provisions （LLP）. The paper also includes information on individual and collective impairment assessment of local commercial banks in Malaysia collected from their annual reports. Most banks have maintained collective assessment （CA） allowance ratio of lower than 1.2% of gross total loans.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71972010 and 72201120the Natural Science Foundation of Jiangxi under Grant No.20232BAB201027the Program of Graduate Education and Teaching Reform of Jiangxi Province under Grant No.JXYJG-2023-008。
文摘Using an unbalanced panel data covering 75 countries from 1991 to 2019,the authors explore how the political risk impacts on food reserve ratio.The empirical findings show that an increasing political risk negatively affects food reserve ratio,and the same effects hold for both internal risk and external risk.Moreover,the authors find that the increasing external or internal risks both negatively affect food production and food exports,but external risk does not significantly impact food imports and it positively impacts food consumption,while internal risk negatively impacts food imports and food consumption.The results suggest that most governments have difficulty raising subsequent food reserve ratios in face of an increasing political risk,no matter if it is an internal risk or an external risk although the mechanisms behind the impacts are different.
文摘Increased hazards threatening the United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO)-designated sites and endangering cultural heritage and community well-being require attention and action.Con-sidering the pivotal role of UNESCO sites in conservation and development,this study assessed their levels of disaster preparedness.The absence of studies assessing disaster awareness,risk perception,and preparedness among UNESCO site actors,as well as the pivotal place of preparedness within the Disaster Risk Management(DRM)cycle justifies this research.Applying the tenets of the Person-Relative-to-Event framework,we hypothe-sized that a strong positive correlation exists between perceived risks,resources,and disaster preparedness.To collect pertinent data,we employed an embedded mixed-method design and conducted an online questionnaire survey yielding 141 responses from 59 countries.From the results of relevant analyses,wildfires,floods,and droughts are top hazards occurring frequently in UNESCO sites,with significant concerns about pollution and habitat loss during future events.Smartphones emerged as the most available crucial DRM resource,with higher availability of DRM resources correlating positively and significantly with sites’preparedness.Our findings con-tribute valuable insights to address missing links for disaster-ready and resilient UNESCO sites,promoting their preservation for future generations.
文摘The Automated Actuarial Pricing and Underwriting Model has been enhanced and expanded through the implementation of Artificial Intelligence to automate three distinct actuarial functions: loss reserving, pricing, and underwriting. This model utilizes data analytics based on Artificial Intelligence to merge microfinance and car insurance services. Introducing and applying a no-claims bonus rate system, comprising base rates, variable rates, and final rates, to three key policyholder categories significantly reduces the occurrence and impact of claims while encouraging increased premium payments. We have enhanced frequency-severity models with eight machine learning algorithms and adjusted the Automated Actuarial Pricing and Underwriting Model for inflation, resulting in outstanding performance. Among the machine learning models utilized, the Random Forest (RANGER) achieved the highest Total Aggregate Comprehensive Automated Actuarial Loss Reserve Risk Pricing Balance (ACAALRRPB), establishing itself as the preferred model for developing Automated Actuarial Underwriting models tailored to specific policyholder categories.
