A Statistical Model with Non-Linear Effects and Non-Proportional Hazards for Breast Cancer Survival Analysis

The Cox proportional hazard model is being used extensively in oncology in studying the relationship between survival times and prognostic factors. The main question that needs to be addressed with respect to the applicability of the Cox PH model is whether the proportional hazard assumption is met. Failure to justify the subject assumption will lead to misleading results. In addition, identifying the correct functional form of the continuous covariates is an important aspect in the development of a Cox proportional hazard model. The purpose of this study is to develop an extended Cox regression model for breast cancer survival data which takes non-proportional hazards and non-linear effects that exist in prognostic factors into consideration. Non-proportional hazards and non-linear effects are detected using methods based on residuals. An extended Cox model with non-linear effects and time-varying effects is proposed to adjust the Cox proportional hazard model. Age and tumor size were found to have nonlinear effects. Progesterone receptor assay status and age violated the proportional hazard assumption in the Cox model. Quadratic effect of age and progesterone receptor assay status had hazard ratio that changes with time. We have introduced a statistical model to overcome the presence of the proportional hazard assumption violation for the Cox proportional hazard model for breast cancer data. The proposed extended model considers the time varying nature of the hazard ratio and non-linear effects of the covariates. Our improved Cox model gives a better insight on the hazard rates associated with the breast cancer risk factors.

Enhancing landslide hazards survey and management to reduce the loss of human lives and properties

Landslides are pervasive geohazards that pose a serious threat to human lives,property,and crucial engineering constructions.Annually,landslides lead to tens of thousands of fatalities(see the paper of"List of typical catastrophic landslides from March 2004 to February 2024"in this issue,doi:10.31035/cg2024079)and cause economic damages amounting to billions of dollars around the world,as well as disrupting crucial infrastructures such as railways,highways。

Assessment of Radiological Hazards of Sedimentary, Igneous and Sediments Natural Rocks

Gamma-ray spectroscopy based on a 100% efficiency hyper-pure germanium detector was used to evaluate the activity concentrations of 226Ra, 232Th, and 40K natural radionuclides in sedimentary, conglomerate, igneous and sedi-ments rock samples collected from four different locations in Eastern desert in Egypt. The obtained activity concentrations are used to evaluate the radi-ological hazards indices, absorbed dose rate, annual effective dose equivalent in air, radium equivalent, external and internal hazard index, radiation level index, annual gonadal dose equivalent, excess lifetime cancer risk and expo-sure rate. The results show that 1) the absorbed dose rate depends on the rock type, 2) the annual effective dose equivalent in air in 71% of sample below 20 mSvy-1 (permissible limit for workers), 3) the conglomerate rocks show low radioactivity level, 4) sedimentary rocks are rich in radium while igneous rocks are rich in thorium and the sediments rocks are rich in both radium and thorium.

Investigation of Maxima Assumptions in Modelling Tropical Cyclone- Induced Hazards in the South China Sea

The present study aims to examine the suitability of two commonly used assumptions that simplify modelling metoceanconditions for designing offshore wind turbines in the South China Sea (SCS). The first assumption assumes thatjoint N-year extreme wind and wave events can be independently estimated and subsequently combined. The secondone assumes peak wind and waves can be modelled as occurring simultaneously during a tropical cyclone (TC) event.To better understand the potential TC activity, a set of 10000 years synthetic TC events are generated. The wind fieldmodel and the Mike 21 spectral wave model are employed to model the TC-induced hazards. Subsequently, theeffect of the assumptions is evaluated by analyzing the peak structural response of both monopile and semisubmersibleoffshore wind turbines during TC events. The results demonstrate that the examined assumptions are generally accurate.By assessing the implications of these assumptions, valuable insights are obtained, which can inform andimprove the modelling of TC-induced hazards in the SCS region.

A Study on the Implementation Path of the Blended Teaching Model in Geological Hazards Investigation and Evaluation

Geological Hazards Investigation and Evaluation is the core course of Environmental Geological Engineering,aiming to cultivate skilled talents with solid theoretical knowledge and excellent practical skills.At present,the course faces several issues,including a teaching environment disconnected from real-world work scenarios,course content that deviates from job-related tasks,a lack of digital teaching resources,and reliance on a single teaching method,leading to students’poor feedback from employers.Based on the concept of outcome-based education,the course team of Geological Hazards Investigation and Evaluation establishes a“five-step double-rotation”blended teaching model with the help of a Small Private Online Course platform.The program is designed to improve the teaching environment and expand the digitalized teaching resources in order to improve students’learning motivation,enhance learning effectiveness,and cultivate skillful talents who meet employers’satisfaction.

Investigation on the Situation of Biological Hazards of Ancient Architecture in Tianshui City

Based on inspecting and investigating the situation of biological hazards of ancient architecture such as north-south building,Fuxi temple and Yuquan Temple,the disease kinds,their damaging ranges and hazard degrees were recorded.The results showed that timber structures had some problems such as colored drawing of purlin post,Fang,bucket arches had fallen off;rot,infesting,color spot,sediments on the surface,rupture,warp,breeding plant etc.

Study on the Price Design and Contract Stability of "Company + Farmer" Model with Time Preference under Double Moral Hazards

The double moral hazard of ＂company ＋ farmer＂ and the time preference cost of company and farmer was analyzed. According to static game model, it re-vealed that the reason for low compliance rate of ＂company ＋ farmer＂ model was the existence of market risk, namely, the fluctuation of market price, and the stable market price in contracts was actualy a kind of interval, instead of a specific value. Furthermore, the effect of default penalty, market transaction cost and time prefer-ence cost on the stability of contract was studied. The results showed that default penalty, market transaction cost and time preference cost had positive influence on the price interval range of a contract.

Assessment of Secondary Mountain Hazards along a Section of the Dujiangyan Wenchuan Highway

Conducting a hazard assessment for secondary mountain hazards is the technical basis for reconstructing destroyed highways and for disaster prevention.It is necessary to consider the role and influence of structural engineering measures as an important assessment factor.In this study,based on six substantial field investigations conducted between July 2008 and July 2012,a 2 km wide zone along both sides of the Dujiangyan Wenchuan(Du Wen) Highway was selected as the study area.Microgeomorphic units and small watersheds in the study area were extracted with GIS software and used as basic assessment units.Through field investigations,remote sensing surveys and experimental analysis,a structural engineering effectiveness assessment was conducted using the technique of principal component analysis.The results showed the following:1) A total of 491 collapses,12 landslides,32 slope debris flows and 17 gully debris flows were scatted across the study area.The total overall areal density of all mountain hazards was 25.7%.The distribution of secondary hazards was influenced mainly by seismic intensity,active fault zones,lithology,slope and altitude.More than 70% of secondary hazards occurred in zones with a seismic intensity of XI,a distance to the fault zone of between 0 and 25 km,a slope between 25° and 50°,and an altitude of between 1,000 m and 1,800 m.2) Different structural engineering measures play different roles and effects in controlling different types and scales of secondary mountain hazards.3) With a secondary mountain hazard area of 128.1 km2and an areal density of 34.9%,medium,high and very high hazard zones accounted for 74% of the study area and were located on the high,steep slopes along both sides of the highway.The low hazard zone was located mainly in the valley floor,on gentle slope platforms and at locations 1.5 km away from the highway the hazard area was 45 km2and the areal density was 3.3%.4) The methodology for hazard assessment of secondary mountain hazards,which is based on five factors,solves such key technical problems as the selection of assessment units,multi-source data fusion,and the weight calculation for each assessment index.This study provides a new and more effective method for assessing secondary mountain hazards along highways,and the proposed models fit well with validation data and field observations.The findings were applied to reconstruction and disaster mitigation in the case of the Du Wen Highway and proved to be feasible.

Ambient nanoparticles/nanominerals and hazardous elements from coal combustion activity:Implications on energy challenges and health hazards

Coal is the most abundant fossil fuel in the world. Because of the growth of coal mining, coal-fired power plants and coal-burning industries, the increase of the emission of particulates(coarse, fine or ultrafine)is of great concern. There is a relationship between increasing human morbidity and mortality and progressive environmental air pollution caused by these types of particles. Thus, the knowledge of the physico-chemical composition and ambient concentrations of coal-derived nanoparticles will improve pollution control strategy. Given the current importance of this area of research, the advanced characterization of this coal combustion-derived nanoparticles/nanominerals as well as hazardous elements is likely to be one of the hottest research fields in coming days. In this review, we try to compile the existing knowledge on coal-derived nanoparticles/nanominerals and discuss the advanced level of characterization techniques for future research. This review also provides some of aspects of health risks associated with exposure to ambient nanoparticles. In addition, the presence of some of the hazardous elements in coal and coal combustion activities is also reviewed.

CIS-Based Mapping and Zonation of Landslide Hazards in Xiaojiang Valley of Southwestern China

Through the field survey, previous researches and interpretation of aerial photos, a landslide information database of Xiaojiang Valley, Yunnan Province was set up based on the remote sensing (RS) and geographic information system (GIS) technologies. In the paper, a quantitative model for the landslide hazard assessment and zoning was presented, in which the potential energy could be obtained on basis of thorough analysis of the potential sliding volume, distance and direction of the landslide body. Taking landslide potential energy as the index of the hazard severity zonation, the study area was divided into severe, heavy, medium and light hazard zones.

Co-seismic Faults and Geological Hazards and Incidence of Active Fault of Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake,Sichuan,China

There are two co-seismic faults which developed when the Wenchuan earthquake happened. One occurred along the active fault zone in the central Longmen Mts. and the other in the front of Longmen Mts. The length of which is more than 270 kin and about 80 km respectively. The co-seismic fault shows a reverse flexure belt with strike of N45°-60°E in the ground, which caused uplift at its northwest side and subsidence at the southeast. The fault face dips to the northwest with a dip angle ranging from 50° to 60°. The vertical offset of the co-seismic fault ranges 2.5-3.0 m along the Yingxiu- Beichuan co-seismic fault, and 1.5-1.1 m along the Doujiangyan-Hanwang fault. Movement of the coseismic fault presents obvious segmented features along the active fault zone in central Longmen Mts. For instance, in the section from Yingxiu to Leigu town, thrust without evident slip occurred; while from Beichuan to Qingchuan, thrust and dextral strike-slip take place. Main movement along the front Longmen Mts. shows thrust without slip and segmented features. The area of earthquake intensity more than IX degree and the distribution of secondary geological hazards occurred along the hanging wall of co-seismic faults, and were consistent with the area of aftershock, and its width is less than 40km from co-seismic faults in the hanging wall. The secondary geological hazards, collapses, landslides, debris flows et al., concentrated in the hanging wall of co-seismic fault within 0-20 km from co-seismic fault.

Distribution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Geological Hazards in Tibet

Tibet is one of the areas with most serious geological hazards in China, and the distribution of disasters has obvious local charac teristics. Tibet can be classified as three parts through zoning the danger degree, the mountain canyon high danger zone of east and southeast Tibet, the plateau mountain lake basin and valley middle danger zone of south Tibet, and the Plateau Mountain lake basin low danger zone of south Tibet. This paper takes the debris flow, collapse, landslide as the key points to analyze the distribution characteristics of geological hazards, and analyze the factors which influence the distribution of geological hazards, such as terrain landform, formation lithology, geologic structure pattern, precipitation, earthquake, human activity and so on. finally, as a conclusion., in whole Tibet, the geological hazards are more in southeast than in northwest, more in mountainous area which in the edge of plateau and river valley than in the interior of plateau and lake basin. And most hazards distribute in the regions where human activity is stronger than in other regions, for example towns or strips along the highway.

Hazards Assessment of Regional Debris Flows Based on Geographic Information Science

Supported by the spatial analysis feature of geographic information science and assessment model of regional debris flows, hazards degrees of the debris flows in the Upper Yangtze River Watershed （UYRW） are divided into five grades based on grid cell. The area of no danger, light danger, medium danger, severe danger and extreme severe danger regions respectively are 278 000, 288 000, 217 000, 127 000, 15 000 km^2. Furthermore, the counties in the UYRW are classified into four classes based on the hazards degrees in each county. The number of severe danger, medium danger, light danger and no danger counties respectively are 49, 82, 77 and 105. The assessment results will be provided for the hazards forecasting and mitigation in the UYRW and ongoing regionalization of Main Function Regions in China as data and technique framework.

A comprehensive geomechanical method for the assessment of rockburst hazards in underground mining

Rockburst hazard in mining industry all over the world is one of the most severe hazards. It is becoming increasingly common because of the ever-growing depths of mining operations accompanied by the increasing strength of rocks. One of the most difficult issues is to predict this hazard before the mining operations, whether geophysical investigations have been conducted or not. Polish experience in this field shows that in such cases an effective solution can be the geomechanical method. Therefore, extensive studies on rockburst hazard should focus on three main aspects:(1) rock mass and rock(and coal)predisposition to rockburst–laboratory tests and empirical analyses based on lithology,(2) identification of the potential places with stress and elastic energy concentration in the rock mass within the area planned for exploitation, and(3) the assessment of the impact of mining tremors on the surface. This preliminary geomechanical analysis assesses the propensity of the rock mass to dynamic breakage and provides quantitatively the level of rockburst hazard. The paper presents Polish experience in rockburst hazard assessment with the use of geomechanical method, as well as some solutions and examples of such analyses.

Characteristics and hazards of different snow avalanche types in a continental snow climate region in the Central Tianshan Mountains

Snow avalanches are a common natural hazard in many countries with seasonally snow-covered mountains.The avalanche hazard varies with snow avalanche type in different snow climate regions and at different times.The ability to understand the characteristics of avalanche activity and hazards of different snow avalanche types is a prerequisite for improving avalanche disaster management in the mid-altitude region of the Central Tianshan Mountains.In this study,we collected data related to avalanche,snowpack,and meteorology during four snow seasons(from 2015 to 2019),and analysed the characteristics and hazards of different types of avalanches.The snow climate of the mid-altitude region of the Central Tianshan Mountains was examined using a snow climate classification scheme,and the results showed that the mountain range has a continental snow climate.To quantify the hazards of different types of avalanches and describe their situation over time in the continental snow climate region,this study used the avalanche hazard degree to assess the hazards of four types of avalanches,i.e.,full-depth dry snow avalanches,full-depth wet snow avalanches,surface-layer dry snow avalanches,and surface-layer wet snow avalanches.The results indicated that surface-layer dry snow avalanches were characterized by large sizes and high release frequencies,which made them having the highest avalanche hazard degree in the Central Tianshan Mountains with a continental snow climate.The overall avalanche hazard showed a single peak pattern over time during the snow season,and the greatest hazard occurred in the second half of February when the snowpack was deep and the temperature increased.This study can help the disaster and emergency management departments rationally arrange avalanche relief resources and develop avalanche prevention strategies.

Disaster reduction stick equipment: A method for monitoring and early warning of pipeline-landslide hazards

Oil and gas pipelines are of great importance in China,and pipeline security problems pose a serious threat to society and the environment.Pipeline safety has therefore become an integral part of the entire national economy.Landslides are the most harmful type of pipeline accident,and have directed increasing public attention to safety issues.Although some useful results have been obtained in the investigation and prevention of pipeline-landslide hazards,there remains a need for effective monitoring and early warning methods,especially when the complexity of pipeline-landslides is considered.Because oil and gas pipeline-landslides typically occur in the superficial soil layers,monitoring instruments must be easy to install and must cause minimal disturbance to the surrounding soil and pipeline.To address the particular characteristics of pipelinelandslides,we developed a multi-parameter integrated monitoring system called disaster reduction stick equipment.In this paper,we detail this monitoring and early warning system for pipeline-landslide hazards based on an on-site monitoring network and early warning algorithms.The functionality of our system was verified by its successful application to the Chongqing Loujiazhuang pipeline-landslide in China.The results presented here provide guidelines for the monitoring,early warning,and prevention of pipeline geological hazards.

Evaluation of Karst Hazards for Civil and Industrial Buildings

The European part of Russia exhibits highly developed sulphate and carbonate karst. It mostly occurs within river valleys with relatively thin covering deposits. These conditions may induce karst collapses, which appear to be the main danger for civil and industrial buildings. Evolution of karst rocks includes several epochs of karst development, which causes complicated distribution of karst caves in karst rocks and, as the result, irregular distribution of karst caves on the surface. Karst hazards prediction is mostly reliable within the geotechnical system “Karst-Construction”, using probability methods. This approach allows creating 3 types of antikarst protection (alternative design of construction arrangement on a plan, structural protection of a construction and plugging of karst caves beneath construction foundation) and selecting the optimum or the most effective version or their rational combination.

Experimental Study on Non-proportional Multiaxial Strain Cyclic Characteristics and Ratcheting of U71Mn Rail Steel

An experimental study was carried out on the strain cyclic characteristics and ratcheting of U71Mn rail steel subjected to non-proportional multiaxial cyclic loading. The strain cyclic characteristics were researched under the strain-controlled circular load path. The ratcheting was investigated for the stress-controlled multiaxial circular, elliptical and rhombic load paths with different mean stresses, stress amplitudes and their histories. The experiment shows that U71Mn rail steel features the cyclic non-hardening/softening, and its strain cyclic characteristics depend greatly on the strain amplitude but slightly on its history. However, the ratcheting of U71Mn rail steel depends greatly not only on the values of mean stress and stress amplitude, but also on their histories. In the meantime, the shape of load path and its history also apparently influence the ratcheting. The ratcheting changes with the different loading paths.

Predicting geological hazards during tunnel construction

The complicated geological conditions and geological hazards are challenging problems during tunnel construction,which will cause great losses of life and property.Therefore,reliable prediction of geological defective features,such as faults,karst caves and groundwater,has important practical significances and theoretical values.In this paper,we presented the criteria for detecting typical geological anomalies using the tunnel seismic prediction（TSP） method.The ground penetrating radar（GPR） signal response to water-bearing structures was used for theoretical derivations.And the 3D tomography of the transient electromagnetic method（TEM） was used to develop an equivalent conductance method.Based on the improvement of a single prediction technique,we developed a technical system for reliable prediction of geological defective features by analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of all prediction methods.The procedure of the application of this system was introduced in detail.For prediction,the selection of prediction methods is an important and challenging work.The analytic hierarchy process（AHP） was developed for prediction optimization.We applied the newly developed prediction system to several important projects in China,including Hurongxi highway,Jinping II hydropower station,and Kiaochow Bay subsea tunnel.The case studies show that the geological defective features can be successfully detected with good precision and efficiency,and the prediction system is proved to be an effective means to minimize the risks of geological hazards during tunnel construction.

Risk assessment: an approach to control hazards in mines

Accidents and injuries related to work are major occupational health problems in most of the industrialized countries.Traditional approaches to manage workplace safety in mines have mainly focused on job redesign and technical aspects of engineering systems.It is being realized that compliance to rules and regulations of mines is a prerequisite;however,it is not sufficient to achieve further reduction in accident and injury rates in mines.Proactive approaches are necessary to further improve the safety standards in mines.Unsafe conditions and practices in mines lead to a number of accidents,which in turn may cause loss and injury to human lives,damages to property,and loss of production.Hazard identification and risk assessment is an important task for the mining industry which needs to consider all the risk factors at workplaces.Applications of risk management approaches in mines are necessary to identify and quantify potential hazards and to suggest effective solutions.In this paper,the following risk estimation techniques were discussed:(i)DGMS(Directorate General of Mines Safety,India)risk rating criterion,and(ii)a matrix based approach.The proposed tools were demonstrated through an application in an opencast coal mine in India.It was inferred that the risk assessment approach can be used as an effective tool to indentify and control hazards in mines.