Extensions of nonlinear error propagation analysis for explicit pseudodynamic testing

Two important extensions of a technique to perform a nonlinear error propagation analysis for an explicit pseudodynamic algorithm （Chang, 2003） are presented. One extends the stability study from a given time step to a complete step-by-step integration procedure. It is analytically proven that ensuring stability conditions in each time step leads to a stable computation of the entire step-by-step integration procedure. The other extension shows that the nonlinear error propagation results, which are derived for a nonlinear single degree of freedom （SDOF） system, can be applied to a nonlinear multiple degree of freedom （MDOF） system. This application is dependent upon the determination of the natural frequencies of the system in each time step, since all the numerical properties and error propagation properties in the time step are closely related to these frequencies. The results are derived from the step degree of nonlinearity. An instantaneous degree of nonlinearity is introduced to replace the step degree of nonlinearity and is shown to be easier to use in practice. The extensions can be also applied to the results derived from a SDOF system based on the instantaneous degree of nonlinearity, and hence a time step might be appropriately chosen to perform a pseudodynamic test prior to testing.

A New Class of Nonlinear Error Control Codes Based on Neural Networks

By mcans of stable attractors of discret Hopfield neural network (DHNN) , anew class of nonlinear error control codes is sugsested and some relativetheorems are presented. A kind of single error control codes is also given forillustrating this new approach.

Information theory in nonlinear error growth dynamics and its application to predictability:Taking the Lorenz system as an example

In nonlinear error growth dynamics,the initial error cannot be accurately determined,and the forecast error,which is also uncertain,can be considered to be a random variable.Entropy in information theory is a natural measure of the uncertainty of a random variable associated with a probability distribution.This paper effectively combines statistical information theory and nonlinear error growth dynamics,and introduces some fundamental concepts of entropy in information theory for nonlinear error growth dynamics.Entropy based on nonlinear error can be divided into time entropy and space entropy,which are used to estimate the predictabilities of the whole dynamical system and each of its variables.This is not only applicable for investigating the dependence between any two variables of a multivariable system,but also for measuring the influence of each variable on the predictability of the whole system.Taking the Lorenz system as an example,the entropy of nonlinear error is applied to estimate predictability.The time and space entropies are used to investigate the spatial distribution of predictability of the whole Lorenz system.The results show that when moving around two chaotic attractors or near the edge of system space,a Lorenz system with lower sensitivity to the initial field behaves with higher predictability and a longer predictability limit.The example analysis of predictability of the Lorenz system demonstrates that the predictability estimated by the entropy of nonlinear error is feasible and effective,especially for estimation of predictability of the whole system.This provides a theoretical foundation for further work in estimating real atmospheric multivariable joint predictability.

Estimation of atmospheric predictability for multivariable system using information theory in nonlinear error growth dynamics

To estimate atmospheric predictability for multivariable system, based on information theory in nonlinear error growth dynamics, a quantitative method is introduced in this paper using multivariable joint predictability limit(MJPL) and corresponding single variable predictability limit(SVPL). The predictability limit, obtained from the evolutions of nonlinear error entropy and climatological state entropy, is not only used to measure the predictability of dynamical system with the constant climatological state entropy, but also appropriate to the case of climatological state entropy changed with time. With the help of daily NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data, by using a method of local dynamical analog, the nonlinear error entropy, climatological state entropy, and predictability limit are obtained, and the SVPLs and MJPL of the winter 500-hPa temperature field, zonal wind field and meridional wind field are also investigated. The results show that atmospheric predictability is well associated with the analytical variable. For single variable predictability, there exists a big difference for the three variables, with the higher predictability found for the temperature field and zonal wind field and the lower predictability for the meridional wind field. As seen from their spatial distributions, the SVPLs of the three variables appear to have a property of zonal distribution, especially for the meridional wind field, which has three zonal belts with low predictability and four zonal belts with high predictability. For multivariable joint predictability, the MJPL of multivariable system with the three variables is not a simple mean or linear combination of its SVPLs. It presents an obvious regional difference characteristic. Different regions have different results. In some regions, the MJPL is among its SVPLs. However, in other regions, the MJPL is less than its all SVPLs.

Efficient Statistical Inference for Partially Nonlinear Errors-in-Variables Models

In this paper, we consider the partially nonlinear errors-in-variables models when the non- parametric component is measured with additive error. The profile nonlinear least squares estimator of unknown parameter and the estimator of nonparametric component are constructed, and their asymptotic properties are derived under general assumptions. Finite sample performances of the proposed statistical inference procedures are illustrated by Monte Carlo simulation studies.

Predictable component analysis of a system based on nonlinear error information entropy

Based on the theory of information entropy concerning nonlinear errors, the growth rules for the nonlinear errors of the Lorenz system and its predictable components are studied. The results show that the impact of the uncertainties, both in the initial error and in the system itself, needs to be considered in a quantitative estimation of the system predictability. The nonlinear error growth is related to the magnitude of the initial error, and to the spatial distribution of the initial error vectors. Even if these initial errors have the same magnitude but different directions, there are also differences in the nonlinear error growth. The predictability of nonlinear error growth is related to the error component, but not related to the ratio of these components. The component with the highest/lowest rate of enntribution does not necessarily have the greatest/least predictability. The different components have different predictabilities, and in different time periods, the different predictable components also have different predictabilities.

Extended Range(10–30 Days) Heavy Rain Forecasting Study Based on a Nonlinear Cross-Prediction Error Model

Extended range （10-30 d） heavy rain forecasting is difficult but performs an important function in disaster prevention and mitigation. In this paper, a nonlinear cross prediction error （NCPE） algorithm that combines nonlinear dynamics and statistical methods is proposed. The method is based on phase space reconstruction of chaotic single-variable time series of precipitable water and is tested in 100 global cases of heavy rain. First, nonlinear relative dynamic error for local attractor pairs is calculated at different stages of the heavy rain process, after which the local change characteristics of the attractors are analyzed. Second, the eigen-peak is defined as a prediction indicator based on an error threshold of about 1.5, and is then used to analyze the forecasting validity period. The results reveal that the prediction indicator features regarded as eigenpeaks for heavy rain extreme weather are all reflected consistently, without failure, based on the NCPE model; the prediction validity periods for 1-2 d, 3-9 d and 10-30 d are 4, 22 and 74 cases, respectively, without false alarm or omission. The NCPE model developed allows accurate forecasting of heavy rain over an extended range of 10-30 d and has the potential to be used to explore the mechanisms involved in the development of heavy rain according to a segmentation scale. This novel method provides new insights into extended range forecasting and atmospheric predictability, and also allows the creation of multi-variable chaotic extreme weather prediction models based on high spatiotemporal resolution data.

Real time remaining useful life prediction based on nonlinear Wiener based degradation processes with measurement errors

Real time remaining useful life(RUL) prediction based on condition monitoring is an essential part in condition based maintenance(CBM). In the current methods about the real time RUL prediction of the nonlinear degradation process, the measurement error is not considered and forecasting uncertainty is large. Therefore, an approximate analytical RUL distribution in a closed-form of a nonlinear Wiener based degradation process with measurement errors was proposed. The maximum likelihood estimation approach was used to estimate the unknown fixed parameters in the proposed model. When the newly observed data are available, the random parameter is updated by the Bayesian method to make the estimation adapt to the item's individual characteristic and reduce the uncertainty of the estimation. The simulation results show that considering measurement errors in the degradation process can significantly improve the accuracy of real time RUL prediction.

Analysis and Application of Multiple-Precision Computation and Round-off Error for Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

This research reveals the dependency of floating point computation in nonlinear dynamical systems on machine precision and step-size by applying a multiple-precision approach in the Lorenz nonlinear equations. The paper also demoastrates the procedures for obtaining a real numerical solution in the Lorenz system with long-time integration and a new multiple-precision-based approach used to identify the maximum effective computation time （MECT） and optimal step-size （OS）. In addition, the authors introduce how to analyze round-off error in a long-time integration in some typical cases of nonlinear systems and present its approximate estimate expression.

Nonlinear Attitude Tracking Control of a Spacecraft with Thrusters Based on Error Quaternions

The multi axis coupling attitude control of a spacecraft with thrusters for attitude tracking is investigated. The attitude kinematics and dynamics are both described by error quaternions. The four error quaternion dynamic equations are then transformed into four perturbed double integrators via linear transformations. An on off controller is designed based on the perturbed double integrators. The controller is determined by parabolic switching functions of the scalar error quaternion and the transfor...

Residual lifetime prediction model of nonlinear accelerated degradation data with measurement error

For the product degradation process with random effect (RE), measurement error (ME) and nonlinearity in step-stress accelerated degradation test (SSADT), the nonlinear Wiener based degradation model with RE and ME is built. An analytical approximation to the probability density function (PDF) of the product's lifetime is derived in a closed form. The process and data of SSADT are analyzed to obtain the relation model of the observed data under each accelerated stress. The likelihood function for the population-based observed data is constructed. The population-based model parameters and its random coefficient prior values are estimated. According to the newly observed data of the target product in SSADT, an analytical approximation to the PDF of its residual lifetime (RL) is derived in accordance with its individual degradation characteristics. The parameter updating method based on Bayesian inference is applied to obtain the posterior value of random coefficient of the RL model. A numerical example by simulation is analyzed to verify the accuracy and advantage of the proposed model.

Effects of error feedback on a nonlinear bistable system with stochastic resonance

In this paper, we discuss the effects of error feedback on the output of a nonlinear bistable system with stochastic resonance. The bit error rate is employed to quantify the performance of the system. The theoretical analysis and the numerical simulation are presented. By investigating the performances of the nonlinear systems with different strengths of error feedback, we argue that the presented system may provide guidance for practical nonlinear signal processing.

TESTING OF CORRELATION AND HETEROSCEDASTICITY IN NONLINEAR REGRESSION MODELS WITH DBL(p,q,1) RANDOM ERRORS

Chaos theory has taught us that a system which has both nonlinearity and random input will most likely produce irregular data. If random errors are irregular data, then random error process will raise nonlinearity （Kantz and Schreiber （1997））. Tsai （1986） introduced a composite test for autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity in linear models with AR（1） errors. Liu （2003） introduced a composite test for correlation and heteroscedasticity in nonlinear models with DBL（p, 0, 1） errors. Therefore, the important problems in regression model axe detections of bilinearity, correlation and heteroscedasticity. In this article, the authors discuss more general case of nonlinear models with DBL（p, q, 1） random errors by score test. Several statistics for the test of bilinearity, correlation, and heteroscedasticity are obtained, and expressed in simple matrix formulas. The results of regression models with linear errors are extended to those with bilinear errors. The simulation study is carried out to investigate the powers of the test statistics. All results of this article extend and develop results of Tsai （1986）, Wei, et al （1995）, and Liu, et al （2003）.

PROXIMAL POINT ALGORITHM WITH ERRORS FOR GENERALIZED STRONGLY NONLINEARQUASIVARIATIONAL INCLUSIONS

In this paper, a class of generalized strongly nonlinear quasivariational inclusions are studied. By using the properties of the resolvent operator associated with a maximal monotone; mapping in Hilbert space, an existence theorem of solutions for generalized strongly nonlinear quasivariational inclusion is established and a new proximal point algorithm with errors is suggested for finding approximate solutions which strongly converge to the exact solution of the generalized strongly, nonlinear quasivariational inclusion. As special cases, some known results in this field are also discussed.

Fully Discrete Nonlinear Galerkin Methods for Kuramoto-Sivashinsky Equation and Their Error Estimates

In this paper,the uniform error estimates with respect to t∈[0, ∞ ) of the nonlinear Galerkin method are given for the long time integration of the Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation. The nonlinear Galerkin method is used to study the asymptotic behaviour of Kuramoto-Sivashinsky equation and to construct the bifurcation diagrams.

A NONLINEAR GALERKIN MIXED ELEMENT METHOD AND A POSTERIORI ERROR ESTIMATOR FOR THE STATIONARY NAVIER-STOKES EQUATIONS

A nonlinear Galerkin mixed element (NGME) method and a posteriori error exstimator based on the method are established for the stationary Navier-Stokes equations. The existence and error estimates of the NGME solution are first discussed, and then a posteriori error estimator based on the NGME method is derived.

APPROXIMATE POWER OF HETEROSCEDASTICITY TEST IN NONLINEAR MODELS WITH ARIMA（0,1,0） ERRORS

This paper presents an approach for estimating power of the score test, based on an asymptotic approximation to the power of the score test under contiguous alternatives. The method is applied to the problem of power calculations for the score test of heteroscedasticity in European rabbit data （Ratkowsky, 1983）. Simulation studies are presented which indicate that the asymptotic approximation to the finite-sample situation is good over a wide range of parameter configurations.

Computation of Error in Estimation of Nonlinearity in ADC Using Histogram Technique

Computation of error in estimation of nonlinearity in ADC using histogram test are reported in this paper. Error determination in estimation of Differential Nonlinearity (DNL) and Integral Nonlinearity (INL) of an ADC is done by taking deviation of estimated value from actual value. Error in estimated INL and DNL is determined to check the usefulness of basic histogram test algorithm. Arbitrary error is introduced in ideal simulated ADC transfer characteristics and full scale simulated sine wave is applied to ADC for computation of error in estimation of transition levels and nonlinearity. Simulation results for 5 and 8 bit ADC are pre-sented which show effectiveness of the proposed method.

NONLINEAR WAVELET SMOOTHING OF ERROR DENSITY IN A SEMIPARAM ETRIC REGRESSION MODEL

In this paper,a sem iparam etric regression m odel in w hich errors are i.i.d random variables from an unknow n density f(·) is considered.Based on Hallet al.(1995),a nonlinear w avelet estim ation of f(·) withoutrestrictions ofcontinuity everyw here on f(·) is given,and the convergence rate ofthe estim ators in L2 is obtained.