Model development to estimate site index values for six major tree species in North Korea

Due to considerable deforestation in North Korea,there is a need to plan forest restoration programs based on scientific forest management.In this study,a methodology was developed for estimating the site index values of six major tree species and the forest productivity potential.The site index values of these tree species were derived in South Korea using the Chapman-Richards equation.These values were used with data from the 6th National Forest Inventory,which included 20 types of edaphic,topographic,and climatic factors,and random forest analysis—a widely used machine learning technique for spatial prediction—to develop a new model for estimating the site index values of these species across South Korea.The prediction accuracy of this model was evaluated using the root mean square error.The results show that the prediction accuracy was high,with a root mean square error of~1m.Moreover,the importance of the variables related to climate and geography was generally high.The proposed site index estimation model for six tree species was applied across North Korea,and its effectiveness tested by comparing the estimated values with those reported in literature from North Korea.The differences between the model outputs and recorded data in the northern alpine regions were presumably due to the lack of data for high-altitude regions in South Korea.This model is based on the determination of the suitability of tree species in restoration efforts.Therefore,it can contribute to the evaluation of forest productivity in North Korea and may help plan efficient forest restoration programs.

Comparative Study on Changes of Croplands Between North Korea and South Korea During 1990–2015

Studies on long-term change of cropland is of great significance to the utilization of land resources and the implementation of scientific agricultural policies. The Korean Peninsula, adjacent to China, plays an important role in the international environment of Northeast Asia. The Korean Peninsula includes South Korea and North Korea—two countries that have a great difference in their institutions and economic developments. Therefore, we aim to quantify the spatiotemporal changes of croplands in these two countries using Landsat Thematic Imager(TM) and Operational Land Imager(OLI) imagery, and to compare the differences of cropland changes between the two countries. This paper take full advantage of ODM approach(object-oriented segmentation and decision-tree classification based on multi-season imageries) to obtain the distribution of croplands in 1990 and 2015. Results showed that the overall classification accuracy of cropland data is 91.10% in 1990 and 92.52% in 2015. The croplands were mainly distributed in areas with slopes that were less than 8° and with elevations that were less than 300 m in the Korean Peninsula. However, in other region(slope > 8° or elevation > 300 m), the area and proportion of North Korea's croplands were significantly higher than that of South Korea. Croplands significantly increased by 15.02% in North Korea from 1990 to 2015. In contrast, croplands in South Korea slightly decreased by 1.32%. During the 25 years, policy shift, economic development, population growth, and urban sprawl played primary roles for cropland changes. Additionally, the regional differences of cropland changes were mainly due to different agriculture policies implemented by different countries. The achievements of this study can provide scientific guidance for the protection and sustainability of land resources.

Trump Administration's North Korea Policy Logic and DPRK Nuclear Issue Prospects

The North Korea nuclear challenge,urgent on the US foreign policy agenda since Donald Trump took office,has prompted unilateral,bilateral and multilateral moves to address rising tension on the peninsula.The underlying logic of US policy,which in November placed the DPRK back on the list of state sponsors of terrorism,promotes negotiation by imposing Maximum Pressure and by enlisting China's support.Possibly,North Korea will return to negotiations with its nuclear and missile development suspended temporarily.Other possibilities are a stalemate with North Korea joining the ranks of countries with credible nuclear deterrent,or an emerging crisis that escalates to military or other conflict.The lingering uncertainty is central to northeast Asia security.

President Trump’s Media Strategy as Was Seen in the Press Conference Following the 2nd 2019 U.S.-North Korea Hanoi Summit

The 2nd U.S.-North Korea Summit between U.S.President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un was held in Hanoi,Vietnam on February 27 and 28,2019.However,no agreement was made despite high expectations before the summit.The author of this paper,who was involved in the press conference following the summit as an interpreter for a Japanese TV program in Tokyo,recognized that Trump,who often criticizes some media outlets,calling them“fake news”,handled the press respectfully.To answer the question why there is a gap between his attitudes toward various media outlets,this paper examines the interactions between the president and all 21 reporters who were allowed to ask him questions during the Hanoi press conference,focusing on their questions,the organizations they belonged to,and some personal details.President Trump’s extremely well-calculated media strategy is then revealed.

Application of Smart Power Strategy to Construct a More Effective Strategy to Denuclearize North Korea

The use of sanctions to coerce Pyongyang into abandoning its nuclear weapons and related programs is not working. North Korea continues to survive and expands its nuclear and missile capabilities. It is time for the US to construct a more successful North Korea strategy by applying a smart power strategy before the North Koreans can operationalize their nuclear ICBMs within the next several years. If and when that occurs, the US will inevitably consider the use of force to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue, but that will be too costly for the US and its allies. Washington must do all it can to avoid another war on the Asian mainland. The only practical uses of force are as defensive and enhanced deterrence measures to protect the US and its allies against North Korean nuclear and conventional provocations. Instead, the US should call for an immediate freeze of North Korea＇s nuclear and missile programs and demonstrate its willingness to co-exist with Pyongyang, Only by accepting co-existence with Pyongyang, Washington has an opportunity to persuade Beijing and Moscow to join its efforts with Seoul and Tokyo to denuclearize North Korea. It is time to engage North Korea by accepting it as it is and exercising strategic patience of a different kind to achieve US aims.

The Finding and Phylogenetic Evolution Analysis of Bovine Piroplasms in the Rasǒn Area of North Korea

The objective of this study was to investigate the epidemiology of bovine Piroplasms infections in the Rasǒn area of North Korea.The survey was carried out by light microscopic examination of Giemsa-stained blood smears,PCR,and phylogenetic evolution analysis of 128 blood samples collected from the Rasǒn area.The results showed that the infection rates of the small and large parasites were about 2.5 and 1.5% on average,respectively,in all Theileria sergenti and Babesia ovatapositive blood smears by microscopic examination of blood smears.The detection rate of T.sergenti Giemsa-stained smears was 43.75%,while that with PCR was 67.97%.The detection rate of B.ovata Giemsa-stained smears was 49.21%,while that with PCR was 71.88%.The sequence and phylogenetic analysis of DNA showed 98.84% homology between the 18S rRNA gene sequences of T.sergenti isolates from North Korean and that of Yanbian state from China,indicating the closest genetic relationship between both of them.Moreover,100% homology was shown between the 18S rRNA gene sequence of B.ovata isolates from North Korea and the published sequence AY081192 of GenBank,indicating the closest genetic relationship between both of them.This survey confirmed that Ras n is the endemic area of T.sergenti and B.ovata in North Korea.

An enumeration of bryophytes collected from North Korea

Bases on studies of bryophytes collecled by Cao Tong in August 1997 from North Kolea, 81 species belonging to 52 genera, 26 families of mosses and 16 species belonging to 12 genera, 10 families of hepatics are recorded. Among these, 6 rpeciec and 1 form are new to bryoflora of the Korean Peninsula. These are : Campylopus gracilis (Mitt.) Jaeg.,Grimmia leavigata (Brid.) Brid., Okamura hakoniensis f. mutiflagellifera (Okam.) Nog., Orthotrchum erubescens C. Muell.,Scapania verrucosa Heeg., Schistidum strictum (Turn.) Loeske ex O. Maort. and Schistidium subconfertum (Broth.)Deguchi.

North Korea Merges Into East Asia

As North Korea becomes more involved in regional cooperation, East Asian countries adjust to their new parther 0n July 24, North Korea signed the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia (TAC), marking the strengthened relations between

利用区域地震资料监测朝鲜地下核试验的研究进展

根据朝鲜6次地下核试验在中国东北及邻近地区产生的宽频带区域地震资料,中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所地震学学科组发展了一套用于监测地下核试验的地震学方法,主要包括震级测量和当量估计、高精度震中定位以及爆炸与天然地震事件识别等.在全球范围内,存在多个用于震级-当量转换的经验公式,确定何种公式适合于朝鲜半岛地区至关重要.通过搜集一组用于地震测深的化学爆炸的当量和埋深,并以这些已知爆炸源作为量规事件,能够标定朝鲜地下核试验场的震级-当量关系,从而实现对朝鲜地下核爆进行当量估计.在精确定位方面,发展了利用多事件之间波形互相关方法精确测定它们之间的走时差从而完成高精度相对震中定位.通过进一步利用Pn和Pg等多震相数据还实现了对核爆深度的相对定位.在爆炸震源识别方面,利用统计处理方法分析研究了不同类型事件所产生地震波的特征,包括6次地下核试验、4次天然地震和3次化学爆炸,以及一些矿区塌陷等.结果发现P和S类型波的振幅比,例如Pn/Lg、Pg/Lg和Pn/Sn等,在2 Hz以上能够较好区分各类震源.其中爆炸震源产生的振幅比显著高于天然地震的值.特别是,通过计算谱振幅比的台网平均值能够显著提高识别的可靠性.利用中国东北和附近地区地震台网所提供的数据可以准确地将朝鲜地下核试验从周边天然地震事件中识别出来.该方法同时得到化学爆炸的P/S谱振幅比值介于核爆炸和天然地震的群组之间.

韩国对当代朝鲜情报工作机制的认知研究

[研究目的]朝鲜在与以韩国为主要竞争对手的战略博弈中确立了符合自身国情的情报工作机制,形成了特点鲜明的情报工作传统。朝鲜情报工作问题研究在国内尚属冷门,通过梳理、评析韩国对朝鲜情报工作机制的认知,有助于进一步丰富和完善情报基础理论研究。[研究方法]通过梳理韩国业界和学界及官方相关文献,厘清韩国对当代朝鲜情报工作的一般性认知,从情报政治化视角评析韩国对朝鲜情报工作机制的认知。[研究结论]韩国认为朝鲜情报工作紧紧围绕最高领导人构建直辖体制,工作重心高度聚焦维护国家内部安全和对韩工作,并持续推动情报体制革新。韩国推测未来朝会增设情报管理部门全面统筹情报力量,同时进一步优化对韩及海外情报机构的战略布局,并积极开展网络战谋求非对称作战力量优势。受国家安全威胁认知、意识形态、决策者情报观念等情报政治化因素影响,韩国对朝鲜情报工作认知也呈现出一定的敌对性、非客观性和不稳定性特点。

“兄弟之邦”:现代中国的朝鲜想象

在现代东亚,中朝两国之间关联甚深,并在中国现代文学中多有体现。基于反帝、反殖民的共同需要,中朝兄弟共同体想象得到广泛书写,表现朝鲜兄弟的烈士精神与英雄气质,则是其中最为引人侧目的内容。其实,塑造朝鲜英雄是为召唤中华英雄,想象“兄弟之邦”是为强化中华认同,表征中朝反帝共同体则蕴含着强烈的国际主义精神,现代中国的朝鲜书写构成一个内外纠结、古今交织的文学地缘学图景。当然,兄弟邦国总是在连带性中纠结对抗性,在亲缘性中包含疏离性,中朝两国各自的现代国家主体意识,便生成于这种复杂的地缘政治纠葛中。

恐惧螺旋下的错误知觉:朝美冲突的政治心理学溯因

朝美关系复杂多变,朝美冲突由来已久。朝美两国交织的错误知觉,使两国深陷敌对状态之中。美国的超强国力与敌对意象以及对朝鲜发出的核威胁构成朝鲜恐惧的来源,而朝鲜不断提升的核导力量则成为美国恐惧的来源。在恐惧情绪的影响下,帝国主义与无赖成为朝美之间的错误意象。朝美意象的错误评估源于基本归因错误、诱发定势以及螺旋模式。针对朝美之间恐惧螺旋下的错误知觉,两国需要建立顺畅且稳定的沟通渠道,释放积极信号,减少误判,坚守底线逻辑与理性行动,创建有利于沟通的环境与气氛,降低冲突,保持政策的连贯性和持久力,实现良性互动。

拜登政府的朝核政策:目标与手段的异化

近期,朝鲜频繁试射包括洲际导弹在内的战略武器,甚至会进行新的核试验,韩国“拥核”呼声前所未有地高涨,朝鲜半岛核扩散风险加剧。拜登政府的朝核政策出现了明显的变化,从把无核化作为“目标”,异化为将其作为地缘政治工具,以服务于美国的“印太战略”。拜登政府朝核政策的调整主要表现在不是以解决朝核问题为主,而是以避免矛盾失控为重,同时利用韩国对朝鲜核导的担忧,加大在韩国的军事部署,强化对相关国家的战略威慑与压制。拜登政府朝核政策异化的动因既缘于美国外交政策议程的优先性,也基于维护美韩同盟关系的需要,以及解决朝核问题历史教训所带来的影响。各方应创造有利于对话的条件,加快推进朝核问题政治解决进程。

俄朝构建“全方位”关系:驱动逻辑、外溢效应与结构短板

在乌克兰危机长期化、复杂化的背景下,俄罗斯和朝鲜显著增强战略互动的频次和范围,并提出构建“全方位”关系的目标。俄朝构建“全方位”关系的驱动力包括秩序认同、战略契合和角色定位三重逻辑。在秩序认同方面,两国具有相似的孤立环境和国家安全威胁感知。在战略契合方面,俄罗斯的“东向南下”战略布局与朝鲜的反霸权、反干涉斗争政策轨迹相互交叉。在角色定位方面,俄朝存在互为支点、安全协同与需求互嵌的自我定位。从俄朝构建“全方位”关系的外溢效应来看,两国间更为积极和全面的战略合作,可能强化东北亚地区现有安全困境的复合性,导致域外国家制造的“冷战叙事”加速回归,并进一步增加解决朝核问题的复杂性。需要注意的是,俄朝构建“全方位”关系仍面临互惠关系的脆弱性、利益纽带的单一性以及追求“三角联动”的路径陷阱等结构性短板,导致其在发展韧性和可持续性方面存在不确定性。

第一次朝核危机的历史考察——基于美国新近解密档案的实证分析

朝鲜半岛当前的核危机是由第一次朝核危机升级而来。危机爆发后,美朝双方展开了首次公开双边谈判,并发表联合声明:朝鲜同意暂缓退出《不扩散核武器条约》,支持南北联合宣言中提出的朝鲜半岛无核化目标;美国郑重承诺不对朝鲜使用核武器和其他武力,不干涉朝鲜内政。然而,在第二轮会谈结束后,由于美朝在国际原子能机构核查、南北对话与特使交流方面无法达成一致,双边关系趋向紧张。朝鲜从反应堆拆除燃料棒,并拒绝国际检查员采集测试样本的举动使危机达到顶峰。由于担心朝鲜可能在被迫情况下采取极端行动,美国在不放弃外交和加强军事准备的前提下策划对朝空袭。此时,美国前总统卡特访朝传递出了朝鲜愿意重返外交谈判的信号,美朝借此契机回到谈判桌上,并达成了解决朝核问题的框架协议。但协议存在诸多隐忧,主要表现为:美国将对朝政策与整体外交战略挂钩,影响了解决朝核问题的一贯性;美国对朝政策需要兼顾韩国立场;美国对朝政策受到官僚政治制约。框架协议存在的问题也孕育着美朝关系和朝鲜半岛局势重趋紧张的可能性,为朝核问题的再次浮现埋下伏笔。

抛投式自动站在东北沿朝边境地区γ剂量率监测中的应用

为掌握抛投式自动站在东北沿朝边境地区的本底监测数据,通过在吉林省白山市和延边州布放抛投式自动站,获取了长白山周边地区的γ吸收剂量率监测数据。经过对监测数据的分析与评价,目前,白山市和延边州的抛投式自动站监测数据在本底范围内,未见异常值。部分地区γ空气吸收剂量率偏高,可能由于基建、采矿等人类活动造成。监测结果可为在后续应对周边国家核活动中抛投式自动站的应用提供应急决策研判的数据基础。

21世纪以来中国对朝鲜救灾援助探析

朝鲜是一个灾害多发频发的国家,来自美日韩的援助在一定程度上缓解了灾难危机,但三国的救灾援助具有时断时续且力度有限、政治目的明显、捆绑附加条件、重“物援”轻合作、过分依赖多边渠道的特点,救援的整体效果有限。围绕动植物检疫与病虫害防治等领域,中国向朝鲜提供了大量的救灾援助,强调维护朝鲜民众的根本利益,侧重气象援助和气象合作,多以“双边”途径实施,得到受援国人民的赞许和认可,成为中国援助朝鲜有效性的生动例证。针对朝鲜因灾求援出现的新“诉求”,中国的救灾援助可适当向发展与民生领域倾斜,并立足以气象为主的优势领域,聚焦人力资源开发与合作项目,加强造血力度,帮助朝鲜进一步提升独立应对灾害的能力。

核不扩散视阈下的利比亚弃核模式——兼谈对朝核问题的参考意义

自核不扩散成为全球治理和国际话语规范以来,部分国家仍然选择私自进行核武器研发试验并试图拥核。其中,利比亚即采取了外部寻求技术渠道和援助,内部自主研发核武器的双轨思路。经历了数十年的博弈与国际介入,利比亚最终实现了“弃核”。而近几年来,关于朝鲜发展核武器的讨论甚嚣尘上,东北亚局势处于波诡云谲之中,朝核问题成为影响东亚地区稳定的关键议题。应该如何评估利比亚弃核模式对朝核问题的参考意义,需要进行更多考察。影响国家拥核及弃核的因素可从内源因素、外部力量及特殊性三分法分析,但结合学界核不扩散理论模型以及不同国家的弃核案例进行比较研究可能诱发惯性思维,需要警惕在理论和方法论上的路径依赖。

试述朝鲜陶瓷文房用具的发展与流变

朝鲜陶瓷在高丽王朝时代开始得到发展,此时期的青瓷只在贵族阶层使用,是一种贵族文化现象。高丽王朝时期在与我国宋代文化交流的影响下巧妙地结合本民族的审美和习性创造了高丽青瓷所具有的艺术水平与魅力。王朝贵族以“巧”和“美”作为考量文化的尺度。李朝时期在高丽陶瓷的基础之上经历了由青瓷向白瓷的飞跃,其中陶瓷文房也产生了设计审美的变化。本文试从朝鲜地区青瓷发展后的艺术文化背景之下辨析陶瓷文房用具设计的发展趋势。