Recent Enhancement in Co-Variability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon and the Equatorial Zonal Wind

The western North Pacific summer monsoon(WNPSM)is an important subcomponent of the Asian summer monsoon.The equatorial zonal wind(EZW)in the lower troposphere over the western Pacific may play a critical role in the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).The possible linkage between the EZW over the western Pacific and the offequatorial monsoonal winds associated with the WNPSM and its decadal changes have not yet been fully understood.Here,we find a non-stationary relationship between the WNPSM and the western Pacific EZW,significantly strengthening their correlation around the late 1980s/early 1990s.This observed shift in the WNPSM–EZW relationship could be explained by the changes in the related sea surface temperature(SST)configurations across the tropical oceans.The enhanced influence from the springtime tropical North Atlantic,summertime tropical central Pacific,and maritime continent SST anomalies may be working together in contributing to the recent intensified WNPSM–EZW co-variability.The observed recent strengthening of the WNPSM–EZW relationship may profoundly impact the climate system,including prompting more effective feedback from the WNPSM on subsequent ENSO evolution and bolstering a stronger biennial tendency of the WNPSM–ENSO coupled system.The results obtained herein imply that the WNPSM,EZW,ENSO,and the tropical North Atlantic SST may be closely linked within a unified climate system with a quasi-biennial rhythm occurring during recent decades,accompanied by a reinforcement of the WNPSM–ENSO interplay quite possibly triggered by enhanced tropical Pacific–Atlantic cross-basin interactions.These results highlight the importance of the tropical Atlantic cross-basin influences in shaping the spatial structure of WNPSM-related wind anomalies and the WNPSM–ENSO interaction.

The Influence of Meridional Variation in North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex

This study examines the dependence of Arctic stratospheric polar vortex(SPV)variations on the meridional positions of the sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies associated with the first leading mode of North Pacific SST.The principal component 1(PC1)of the first leading mode is obtained by empirical orthogonal function decomposition.Reanalysis data,numerical experiments,and CMIP5 model outputs all suggest that the PC1 events(positive-minus-negative PC1 events),located relatively northward(i.e.,North PC1 events),more easily weaken the Arctic SPV compared to the PC1 events located relatively southward(i.e.,South PC1 events).The analysis indicates that the North PC1-related Aleutian low anomaly is located over the northern North Pacific and thus enhances the climatological trough,which strengthens the planetary-scale wave 1 at mid-to-high latitudes and thereby weakens the SPV.The weakened stratospheric circulation further extends into the troposphere and favors negative surface temperature anomalies over Eurasia.By contrast,the South PC1-related Aleutian low anomaly is located relatively southward,and its constructive interference with the climatological trough is less efficient at high latitudes.Thus,the South PC1 events could not induce an evident enhancement of the planetary-scale waves at high latitudes and thereby a weakening of the SPV on average.The Eurasian cooling associated with South PC1 events(positive-minus-negative PC1 events)is also not prominent.The results of this study suggest that the meridional positions of the PC1 events may be useful for predicting the Arctic SPV and Eurasian surface temperature variations.

Interdecadal Enhancement in the Relationship between the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon and Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Central-Western Pacific after the Early 1990s

This study reveals the strengthened interdecadal relationship between the western North Pacific summer monsoon(WNPSM)and tropical central-western Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly(SSTA)in summer after the early 1990s.In the first period(1979–91,P1),the WNPSM-related precipitation anomaly and horizontal wind anomaly present themselves as an analogous Pacific-Japan(PJ)-like pattern,generally considered to be related to the Niño-3 index in the preceding winter.During the subsequent period(1994–2019,P2),the WNPSM-related precipitation anomaly presents a zonal dipole pattern,correlated significantly with the concurrent SSTA in the Niño-4 and tropical western Pacific regions.The negative(positive)SSTA in the tropical western Pacific and positive(negative)SSTA in the Niño-4 region,could work together to influence the WNPSM,noting that the two types of anomalous SSTA configurations enhance(weaken)the WNPSM by the positive(negative)phase PJ-like wave and Gill response,respectively,with an anomalous cyclone(anticyclone)located in the WNPSM,which shows obvious symmetry about the anomalous circulation.Specifically,the SSTA in Niño-4 impacts the WNPSM by an atmospheric Gill response,with a stronger(weaker)WNPSM along with a positive(negative)SSTA in the Niño-4 region.Furthermore,the SSTA in the tropical western Pacific exerts an influence on the WNPSM by a PJ-like wave,with a stronger(weaker)WNPSM along with a negative(positive)SSTA in the tropical western Pacific.In general,SSTAs in the tropical western Pacific and Niño-4 areas could work together to exert influence on the WNPSM,with the effect most likely to occur in the El Niño(La Niña)developing year in P2.However,the SSTAs in the tropical western Pacific worked alone to exert an influence on the WNPSM mainly in 2013,2014,2016,and 2017,and the SSTAs in the Niño-4 region worked alone to exert an influence on the WNPSM mainly in Central Pacific(CP)La Niña developing years.The sensitivity experiments also can reproduce the PJ-like wave/Gill response associated with SSTA in the tropical western Pacific/Niño-4 regions.Therefore,the respective and synergistic impacts from the Niño-4 region and the tropical western Pacific on the WNPSM have been revealed,which helps us to acquire a better understanding of the interdecadal variations of the WNPSM and its associated climate influences.

Response of the North Pacific Storm Track Activity in the Cold Season to Multi-scale Oceanic Variations of Kuroshio Extension System: A Statistical Assessment

In this paper,a statistical method called Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Analysis(GEFA)is used to investigate the responses of the North Pacific Storm Track(NPST)in the cold season to the multi-scale oceanic variations of the Kuroshio Extension(KE)system,including its large-scale variation,oceanic front meridional shift,and mesoscale eddy activity.Results show that in the cold season from the lower to the upper troposphere,the KE large-scale variation significantly weakens the storm track activity over the central North Pacific south of 30°N.The northward shift of the KE front significantly strengthens the storm track activity over the western and central North Pacific south of 40°N,resulting in a southward shift of the NPST.In contrast,the NPST response to KE mesoscale eddy activity is not so significant and relatively shallow,which only shows some significant positive signals near the dateline in the lower and middle troposphere.Furthermore,it is found that baroclinicity and baroclinic energy conversion play an important role in the formation of the NPST response to the KE multi-scale oceanic variations.

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Database Created by the China Meteorological Administration

This paper describes the access to, and the content, characteristics, and potential applications of the tropical cyclone(TC) database that is maintained and actively developed by the China Meteorological Administration, with the aim of facilitating its use in scientific research and operational services. This database records data relating to all TCs that have passed through the western North Pacific(WNP) and South China Sea(SCS) since 1949. TC data collection has expanded over recent decades via continuous TC monitoring using remote sensing and specialized field detection techniques,allowing collation of a multi-source TC database for the WNP and SCS that covers a long period, with wide coverage and many observational elements. This database now comprises a wide variety of information related to TCs, such as historical or real-time locations(i.e., best track and landfall), intensity, dynamic and thermal structures, wind strengths, precipitation amounts, and frequency. This database will support ongoing research into the processes and patterns associated with TC climatic activity and TC forecasting.

Projection of the Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity Affecting East Asia over the Western North Pacific Based on Multi-RegCM4 Simulations

Future changes in tropical cyclone(TC)activity over the western North Pacific(WNP)under the representative concentration pathway RCP4.5 are investigated based on a set of 21 st century climate change simulations over East Asia with the regional climate model RegCM4 driven by five global models.The RegCM4 reproduces the major features of the observed TC activity over the region in the present-day period of 1986-2005,although with the underestimation of the number of TC genesis and intensity.A low number of TCs making landfall over China is also simulated.By the end of the 21st century(2079-98),the annual mean frequency of TC genesis and occurrence is projected to increase over the WNP by16%and 10%,respectively.The increase in frequency of TC occurrence is in good agreement among the simulations,with the largest increase over the ocean surrounding Taiwan Island and to the south of Japan.The TCs tend to be stronger in the future compared to the present-day period of 1986-2005,with a large increase in the frequency of strong TCs.In addition,more TCs landings are projected over most of the China coast,with an increase of~18%over the whole Chinese territory.

Introduction to the Regional Coupled Model WRF4-LICOM: Performance and Model Intercomparison over the Western North Pacific

Regional coupled modeling is one of the frontiers of regional climate modeling,but intercomparison has not been well coordinated.In this study,a community regional climate model,WRF4,with a resolution of 15 km,was coupled with a high-resolution(0.1°)North Pacific Ocean model(LICOM_np).The performance of the regional coupled model,WRF4_LICOM,was compared to that of another regional coupled model,RegCM4_LICOM,which was a coupling of version 4 of the Regional Climate Model(RegCM4)with LICOM_np.The analysis focused on the 2005 western North Pacific summer monsoon rainfall.The results showed that the regional coupled models with either RegCM4 or WRF4 as their atmospheric model component simulated the broad features over the WNP reasonably well.Quantitative intercomparison of the regional coupled simulations exhibited different biases for different climate variables.RegCM4_LICOM exhibited smaller biases in its simulation of the averaged June–July–August SST and rainfall,while WRF4_LICOM better captured the tropical cyclone(TC)intensity,the percentage contributions of rainfall induced by TCs to the total rainfall,and the diurnal cycle of rainfall and stratiform percentages,especially over land areas.The different behaviors in rainfall simulated by the two models were partly ascribed to the behaviors in the simulated western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH).The stronger(weaker)WNPSH in WRF4_LICOM(RegCM4_LICOM)was driven by overestimated(underestimated)diabatic heating,which peaked at approximately 450 hPa over the region around the Philippines in association with different condensation–radiation processes.Coupling of WRF4 with LIOCM is a crucial step towards the development of the next generation of regional earth system models at the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Establishment of an Objective Standard for the Definition of Binary Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific

To develop an objective standard for defining binary tropical cyclones(BTCs)in the western North Pacific(WNP),two best-track datasets,from the China Meteorological Administration and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center,were adopted for statistical analyses on two important characteristics of BTCs-two TCs approaching each other,and counterclockwise spinning.Based on the high consistency between the two datasets,we established an objective standard,which includes a main standard for defining BTCs and a secondary standard for identifying typical/atypical BTCs.The main standard includes two requirements:two coexisting TCs are a pair of BTCs if(i)the separation distance is≤1800 km,and(ii)this separation maintains for at least 12 h.Meanwhile,the secondary standard defines a typical BTC as one for which there is at least one observation when the two TCs approach each other and spin counterclockwise simultaneously.Under the standard,the ratio of typical BTCs increases as the BTC duration increases or the minimum distance between the two TCs decreases.Then,using the JTWC dataset,it was found that there are 505 pairs of BTCs during the period 1951−2014,including 328 typical BTCs and 177 atypical BTCs,accounting for 65.0%and 35.0%of the total,respectively.In addition,a study of two extreme phenomena-the maximum approaching speed and the maximum counterclockwise angular velocity in typical BTCs-shows that the configuration of the circulation conditions and the distribution of the BTCs favor the formation of these extreme phenomena.

Unstable relationship between spring NAO and summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific

The present study reveals the fact that the relationship between the spring(April–May)North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and the following summer(June–September)tropical cyclone(TC)genesis frequency over the western North Pacific(WNP)during the period of 1950–2018 was not stationary.It is shown that the relationship between the two has experienced a pronounced interdecadal shift,being weak and insignificant before yet strong and statistically significant after the early 1980 s.Next we compare the spring NAO associated dynamic and thermodynamic conditions,sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies,and atmospheric circulation processes between the two subperiods of 1954–1976 and 1996–2018,so as to illucidate the possible mechanism for this interdecadal variation in the NAO-TC connection.During the latter epoch,when the spring NAO was positive,enhanced low-level vorticity,reduced vertical zonal wind shear,intensified vertical velocity and increased middle-level relative humidity were present over the WNP in the summer,which is conducive to the genesis of WNP TCs.When the spring NAO is negative,the dynamic and thermodynamic factors are disadvantageous for the summertime TC formation and development over the WNP.The results of further analysis indicate that the persistence of North Atlantic tri-pole SST anomalies from spring to the subsequent summer induced by the spring NAO plays a fundamental role in the linkage between the spring NAO and summer atmospheric circulation.During the period of 1996–2018,a remarkable eastward propagating wave-train occurred across the northern Eurasian continent,forced by the anomalous SST tri-pole in the North Atlantic.The East Asian jet flow became greatly intensified,and the deep convection in the tropics was further enhanced via the changes of the local Hadley circulation,corresponding to a positive spring NAO.During the former epoch,the spring NAO-induced tri-pole SST anomalies in the North Atlantic were non-existent,and the related atmospheric circulation anomalies were extremely weak,thereby leading to the linkage between spring NAO and WNP TC genesis frequency in the following summer being insignificant.

Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific Strengthen the East Asia–Pacific Pattern during Summer

The contribution of tropical cyclones(TCs)to the East Asia–Pacific(EAP)teleconnection pattern during summer was investigated using the best track data of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and NCEP-2 reanalysis datasets from 1979 to2018.The results showed that the TCs over the western North Pacific(WNP)correspond to a strengthened EAP pattern:During the summers of strong convection over the tropical WNP,TC days correspond to a stronger cyclonic circulation anomaly over the WNP in the lower troposphere,an enhanced seesaw pattern of negative and positive geopotential height anomalies over the subtropical WNP and midlatitude East Asia in the middle troposphere,and a more northward shift of the East Asian westerly jet in the upper troposphere.Further analyses indicated that two types of TCs with distinctly different tracks,i.e.,westward-moving TCs and northward-moving TCs,both favor the EAP pattern.The present results imply that TCs over the WNP,as extreme weather,can contribute significantly to summer-mean climate anomalies over the WNP and East Asia.

Decadal Change in the Influence of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High on Summer Rainfall over the Yangtze River Basin in the Late 1970s

It is well known that on the interannual timescale,the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)results in enhanced rainfall over the Yangtze River basin(YRB)in summer,and vice versa.This study identifies that this correspondence experiences a decadal change in the late 1970s.That is,the WNPSH significantly affects YRB precipitation(YRBP)after the late 1970s(P2)but not before the late 1970s(P1).It is found that enhanced interannual variability of the WNPSH favors its effect on YRB rainfall in P2.On the other hand,after removing the strong WNPSH cases in P2 and making the WNPSH variability equivalent to that in P1,the WNPSH can still significantly affect YRB rainfall,suggesting that the WNPSH variability is not the only factor that affects the WNPSH-YRBP relationship.Further results indicate that the change in basic state of thermal conditions in the tropical WNP provides a favorable background for the enhanced WNPSH-YRBP relationship.In P2,the lower-tropospheric atmosphere in the tropical WNP gets warmer and wetter,and thus the meridional gradient of climatological equivalent potential temperature over the YRB is enhanced.As a result,the WNPSH-related circulation anomalies can more effectively induce YRB rainfall anomalies through affecting the meridional gradient of equivalent potential temperature over the YRB.

Unveiling controls of the latitudinal gradient of surface pCO_(2) in the Kuroshio Extension and its recirculation regions(northwestern North Pacific)in late spring

In the northwestern North Pacific,annual net air-sea CO_(2) flux is greatest in the Kuroshio Extension(KE)zone,owing to its low annual mean partial pressure of CO_(2)(pCO_(2)),and it decreases southward across the basin.To quantify the influences of factors controlling the latitudinal gradient in CO_(2) uptake,sea surface pCO_(2) and related parameters were investigated in late spring of 2018 in a study spanning the KE,Kuroshio Recirculation(KR),and subtropical zones.We found that the sea-to-air pCO_(2) difference(ΔpCO_(2))was negative and at its lowest in the KE zone.ΔpCO_(2) gradually increased southward across the KR zone,and the sea surface was nearly in air-equilibrium with atmospheric CO_(2) in the subtropical zone.We found that northward cooling and vertical mixing were the two major processes governing the latitudinal gradient in surface pCO_(2) and ΔpCO_(2),while biological influences were relatively minor.In the KE zone affected by upwelling,the vertical-mixing-induced increase in surface pCO_(2) likely canceled out approximately 61%of the decrease in surface pCO_(2) caused by cooling and biological activities.Moreover,the prolonged air-sea equilibration for CO_(2) and relatively short hydraulic retention time jointly led to the low surface pCO_(2) in the KE zone in spring.Ultimately,the cooling KE current flows out of the region before it can be re-equilibrated with atmospheric CO_(2).

Different Configurations of Interannual Variability of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High and East Asian Westerly Jet in Summer

This study investigates the circulation and precipitation anomalies associated with different configurations of the western North Pacific subtropical high(WNPSH)and the East Asian westerly jet(EAJ)in summer on interannual timescales.The in-phase configuration of the WNPSH and EAJ is characterized by the westward(eastward)extension of the WNPSH and the southward(northward)shift of the EAJ,which is consistent with the general correspondence between their variations.The out-of-phase configuration includes the residual cases.We find that the in-phase configuration manifests itself as a typical meridional teleconnection.For instance,there is an anticyclonic(cyclonic)anomaly over the tropical western North Pacific and a cyclonic(anticyclonic)anomaly over the mid-latitudes of East Asia in the lower troposphere.These circulation anomalies are more conducive to rainfall anomalies over the Yangtze River basin and south Japan than are the individual WNPSH or EAJ.By contrast,for the out-of-phase configuration,the mid-latitude cyclonic(anticyclonic)anomaly is absent,and the lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies feature an anticyclonic(cyclonic)anomaly with a large meridional extension.Correspondingly,significant rainfall anomalies move northward to North China and the northern Korean Peninsula.Further results indicate that the out-of-phase configuration is associated with the developing phase of ENSO,with strong and significant sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical central and eastern Pacific which occur simultaneously during summer and persist into the following winter.This is sharply different from the in-phase configuration,for which the tropical SSTs are not a necessity.

N2 fixation rate and diazotroph community structure in the western tropical North Pacific Ocean

In the present study, we report N2 fixation rate(15N isotope tracer assay) and the diazotroph community structure(using the molecular method) in the western tropical North Pacific Ocean(WTNP)(13°–20°N, 120°–160°E). Our independent evidence on the basis of both in situ N2 fixation activity and diazotroph community structure showed the dominance of unicellular N2 fixation over majority of the WTNP surface waters during the sampling periods.Moreover, a shift in the diazotrophic composition from unicellular cyanobacteria group B-dominated to Trichodesmium spp.-dominated toward the western boundary current(Kuroshio) was also observed in 2013. We hypothesize that nutrient availability may have played a major role in regulating the biogeography of N2 fixation.In surface waters, volumetric N2 fixation rate(calculated by nitrogen) ranged between 0.6 and 2.6 nmol/(L·d) and averaged(1.2±0.5) nmol/(L·d), with <10 μm size fraction contributed predominantly(88%±6%) to the total rate between 135°E and 160°E. Depth-integrated N2 fixation rate over the upper 200 m ranged between 150 μmol/(m^2·d)and 480 μmol/(m^2·d)average(225±105) μmol/(m^2·d). N2 fixation can account for 6.2%±3.7% of the depthintegrated primary production, suggesting that N2 fixation is a significant N source sustaining new and export production in the WTNP. The role of N2 fixation in biogeochemical cycling in this climate change-vulnerable region calls for further investigations.

Double North Pacific High in Summer

An example of sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature (SST) is displayed for a summer month based on historical monthly mean data for the North Pacific. A double North Pacific High (NPH) co-occurred with a double large-scale SST maximum along 40 N. Centers of the two NPHs had very nearly the same longitudes as did the SST maxima. Seven similar coincidences happened within the 30-year records. These particular associations between extrema of SLPs and SSTs enhance a previously published conjecture that single and double NPHs are caused by heat transfer from the sea surface to the atmosphere. The eastern SST maximum is the signature of a permanent wide warm surface current flowing northeast off California. To the west of it in the summer is a transient wide warm surge of surface water flowing north as it crosses mid-latitudes. These are the heat sources that generate the single and double NPHs.

Structure and Evolution of Decadal Spiciness Variability in the North Pacific during 2004-20,Revealed from Argo Observations

Ocean spiciness is referred to as density-compensated temperature and salinity variations with warm(cool)and salty(fresh)waters having high(low)spiciness,respectively.The structure and evolution of density-compensated(warm/salty or cool/fresh)spiciness anomalies are investigated in the North Pacific thermocline using Argo observations during the period 2004-20.Two well-organized decadal spiciness events are identified through isopycnal surface analyses.One warm/salty spiciness anomaly of about 0.15°C and 0.05 g kg^(−1)temperature and salinity perturbations on the 25 kg m^(−1)isopycnal surface appeared in the eastern subtropical North Pacific at(18°-30°N,120°-150°W)in 2007,which then migrated southwestward along the mean circulation and arrived in the western tropics at(~15°N,145°E-175°W)in 2012-13,with the reduced salinity perturbation of about 0.043 g kg^(−1).Another cool/fresh spiciness anomaly of about−0.2°C and−0.07 g kg^(−1)temperature and salinity perturbations originated from the eastern subtropics at(120°-150°W,~30°N)in 2014 and followed a similar advective pathway during the period from 2014-15 to 2019-20.The subduction pathway can be adequately determined by the mean Montgomery stream function on the isopycnal surface;the propagation direction and speed are in good agreement with the expectation for the role played by advection due to the mean geostrophic current.Moreover,the subducted decadal spiciness anomalies can have negative feedback on sea surface temperature(SST)variability in the western tropical Pacific through the diapycnal processes.The identifications of these density-compensated spiciness anomalies and their propagation pathways provide a clear illustration of the oceanic extratropics-tropics interactions in the North Pacific Ocean.

Circulation and Heat Flux along the Western Boundary of the North Pacific

On the basis of the conductivity temperature depth(CTD)observation data off the coast of the Philippines(7.5°–18°N,130°E–the east coast of the Philippines)in the fall of 2005,the water mass distribution,geostrophic flow field,and heat budget are examined.Four water masses are present:the North Pacific Tropical Surface Water,the North Pacific Sub-surface Water,the North Pacific Intermediate Water,and the Antarctic Intermediate Water(AAIW).The previous three corresponded with the North Equatorial Current(NEC),the Kuroshio Current(KC),and the Mindanao Current(MC),respectively.AAIW is the source of the Mindanao Undercurrent.The mass transport of NEC,KC,and MC is 58.7,15,and 27.95Sv,respectively(relative to 1500db).NEC can be balanced by the transport across the whole transect 18°N(31.81 Sv)and 7.5°N(26.11 Sv)but not simply by KC and MC.Direct calculation is used to study the heat flux.In sum,1.45PW heat is transported outwards the observed region,which is much more than that released from the ocean to the air at the surface(0.05PW).The net heat lost decreased the water temperature by 0.75℃each month on average,and the trend agreed well with the SST change.Vertically,the heat transported by the currents is mainly completed in the upper 500 m.

Nutrient distributions and nitrogen-anomaly(N^(*))in the tropical North Pacific Ocean

Based upon cruise observations broadly covering the tropical North Pacific during July-November 2017,together with data obtained from the World Ocean Circulation Experiment Hydrographic Program,this study examined the distribution of dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN,nitrate(NO_(3)^(-))+nitrite(NO_(2)^(-))),dissolved inorganic phosphorus(DIP)and related N^(*)(nitrogen-anomaly,N^(*)=N-16P+2.9,where N and P are the concentrations of DIN(>1.0μmol/L)and DIP(>0.1μmol/L)),used as an index of N2fixation,in the upper 1000 m of the water column.Nutrient concentrations displayed distinct spatial variability in the upper ocean but became relatively constant at a depth of 1000 m:they were high at low latitudes and in the eastern region,with an obvious nutricline at~150 m(DIN,~32.0μmol/L;DIP,~2.4μmol/L)and then generally increased with depth;they decreased markedly(DIN,~1.2μmol/L;DIP,~0.1μmol/L;at~150 m)at high latitudes and in the western region,where a nutricline was not apparent.The N^(*)index showed significant meridional and zonal variation,with the most negative values located at low latitudes and in the eastern region(~10°N,~150°-170°E),while becoming positive towards the northwest(the north of~18°N,~160°E westward).A N^(*)concentration larger than 2.0μmol/L which often used as an indicator of N2fixation,was observed between 155°E and 165°E;N^(*)values were 2.0μmol/L to6.0μmol/L at~15°-28°N,i.e.,much higher than those in the southern sector(0-2.0μmol/L at~5°-10°N).Zonally,N^(*)decreased gradually from west(-2.0μmol/L to 4.0μmol/L,~145°-165°E)to east(-2.0μmol/L to-8.0μmol/L,~155°W)along~10°N,which was consistent with the distribution of Trichodesmium abundance and N2fixation rates.Furthermore,since such region was also supplied with aeolian deposition,high N^(*)was probably not only induced by N2fixation but also influenced by iron and/or nitrogen deposition.

DECADAL CHANGES IN WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONES ASSOCIATED WITH MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION

This study focuses on the decadal variability of tropical cyclones(TC) over the Western North Pacific(WNP)and how these changes are related to the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO).It was done with the help of the Real-time Multivariate MJO index from the Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology of the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research,TC data from the Joint Typhoon Warming Center best track datasets,and daily and monthly datasets from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis center.The results show that the TC frequency in the WNP exhibited a statistically significant decrease during 1998-2010 compared to during 1979-1997.The decrease in TC frequency in the WNP mainly occurred during MJO active phases(i.e.,phases 4,5,6,and 7).Further investigation of the climate background and the propagation differences of the MJO between 1979-1997 and 1998-2010 was performed.The La Nina-like tropical sea surface temperature cooling caused stronger Walker circulation and thus induced unfavorable atmosphere conditions for WNP TC genesis including a low-level easterly anomaly,a negative relative vorticity anomaly,an increase in sea-level pressure,and stronger vertical wind shear.Moreover,shortening of the MJO cycle,decline in the duration of the active phases in the WNP,and easterly anomaly and shrinkage of the convection area during MJO active phases may also partly explain the decadal variation of TC.

A Logistic-growth-equation-based Intensity Prediction Scheme for Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Accurate prediction of tropical cyclone(TC)intensity remains a challenge due to the complex physical processes involved in TC intensity changes.A seven-day TC intensity prediction scheme based on the logistic growth equation(LGE)for the western North Pacific(WNP)has been developed using the observed and reanalysis data.In the LGE,TC intensity change is determined by a growth term and a decay term.These two terms are comprised of four free parameters which include a time-dependent growth rate,a maximum potential intensity(MPI),and two constants.Using 33 years of training samples,optimal predictors are selected first,and then the two constants are determined based on the least square method,forcing the regressed growth rate from the optimal predictors to be as close to the observed as possible.The estimation of the growth rate is further refined based on a step-wise regression(SWR)method and a machine learning(ML)method for the period 1982−2014.Using the LGE-based scheme,a total of 80 TCs during 2015−17 are used to make independent forecasts.Results show that the root mean square errors of the LGE-based scheme are much smaller than those of the official intensity forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration(CMA),especially for TCs in the coastal regions of East Asia.Moreover,the scheme based on ML demonstrates better forecast skill than that based on SWR.The new prediction scheme offers strong potential for both improving the forecasts for rapid intensification and weakening of TCs as well as for extending the 5-day forecasts currently issued by the CMA to 7-day forecasts.