The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relat...The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.展开更多
The decadal variations of the North Pacifi c Tropical Water (NPTW) at 137°E in the western North Pacific Ocean are investigated based on the repeated hydrographic observations along with two global gridded ocean ...The decadal variations of the North Pacifi c Tropical Water (NPTW) at 137°E in the western North Pacific Ocean are investigated based on the repeated hydrographic observations along with two global gridded ocean products. The results indicate that the maximum salinity of NPTW experiences signifi cant quasi-decadal variations, having maxima around 1979, 1987, 1995, 2004, and 2012, while minima around 1974, 1983, 1991, 1999, and 2008 during the period of interest. The NPTW area also shows similar quasidecadal variation, expanding/shrinking as its maximum salinity increases/decreases at the 137°E section. These variations are induced mainly by changes in the mixed layer salinity in the source region and largescale circulation in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean, both of which are related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The underlying processes at work are further confi rmed through conducting the subsurface salinity budget analysis. Besides, short-term processes are also at work through nonlinear interactions, especially after 2000.展开更多
In this study, the dynamic mechanisms of interannual sea surface height （SSH） variability are investigated based on the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave model, with a focus on the effects of different levels of win...In this study, the dynamic mechanisms of interannual sea surface height （SSH） variability are investigated based on the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave model, with a focus on the effects of different levels of wind stress curl （WSC）. Maximum covariance analysis （MCA） of WSC and SSH anomalies displays a mode with significant WSC anomalies located primarily in the mid-latitude eastern North Pacific and central tropical Pacific with corresponding SSH anomalies located to the west. This leading mode can be attributed to Ekman pumping induced by local wind stress and the westward-propagating Rossby wave driven by large- scale wind stress. It is further found that in the middle latitudes, the SSH anomalies are largely determined by WSC variations associated with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation （NPGO）, rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）. The sensitivity of the predictive skill of the linear first-mode baroclinic model to different wind products is also examined.展开更多
Based on monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT),the dry/wet trends and shift of the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from 1951 t...Based on monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT),the dry/wet trends and shift of the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from 1951 to 2005 have been analyzed through calculating surface wetness index (SWI). The results indicate that there was a prominent drying trend and an abrupt change in the analysis period. A per-sistent warming period with less precipitation from the mid and late 1970s to present was found,and a shift process exists from the wet to the dry in the central part of North China during 1951-2005. The transition is located in the mid to late 1970s,which should be related to the shift variation of large-scale climate background. The correlation analysis has brought about a finding of significant correlativity between PDO index (PDOI) and SAT,precipitation and SWI in this region. The correlation exhibits that the positive phase of PDOI (warm PDO phase) matches warming,less precipitation and the drought period,and the negative PDOI phase corresponds to low SAT,more precipitation and the wet period. The duration of various phases is more than 25 years. The decadal variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean is one of the possible causes in forming the decadal dry/wet trend and shift of the central part of North China.展开更多
The climate modulation on the sea surface height （SSH） in China seas is investigated using a China Ocean Reanalysis （CORA） dataset from 1958-2008. The dataset is constructed by assimilating the temperature/salinit...The climate modulation on the sea surface height （SSH） in China seas is investigated using a China Ocean Reanalysis （CORA） dataset from 1958-2008. The dataset is constructed by assimilating the temperature/salinity profiles derived from the satellite altimetry data and historical observational temperature/salinity profiles. Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF）, the CORA sea surface height anomaly （SSHa） is decomposed, and the interannual and decadal variability of the first three leading modes are analyzed. On the interannual timescale, the first principal component （PC1） is significant positively correlated with the E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillation （ENSO）. On the decadal timescale, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation （NPGO） has significant negative correlation with PC 1 whereas Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） is in phase with PC3. Analysis shows that the decadal variability of SSH is mainly modulated by the wind stress curl variability related to the NPGO and PDO. In addition, the effect of net heat flux associated to the NPGO and PDO on SSH is also investigated, with net heat flux variability in the Luzon strait and tropic Pacific found to influence the decadal variability of SSH.展开更多
利用EN4(the UK Met Office EN4.2.1 analyses)盐度数据发现北太平洋副热带高盐中心--北太平洋热带水(NPTW)的海表面积与体积在2000-2008年、2014-2017年存在下降趋势,2008-2014年期间存在上升趋势,进一步的研究表明,这些变化与太平洋...利用EN4(the UK Met Office EN4.2.1 analyses)盐度数据发现北太平洋副热带高盐中心--北太平洋热带水(NPTW)的海表面积与体积在2000-2008年、2014-2017年存在下降趋势,2008-2014年期间存在上升趋势,进一步的研究表明,这些变化与太平洋年代际震荡(PDO)的位相转换紧密相关。利用淡水通量数据以及ECCO2(Circulation and Climate of the Ocean,Phase Ⅱ)流场数据计算分析后表明,淡水通量对NPTW的变化贡献较小,而水平输运对NPTW的表面积以及体积变化贡献较大,这与PDO正(负)位相期间北赤道流(NEC)的向北(南)摆动有关。展开更多
During years 1980/1981-2012/2013, inter-annual variations in sea ice and snow thickness in Kemi, in the northern coast of the Gulf of Bothnia, Baltic Sea, depended on the air temperature, snow fall, and rain. Inter-an...During years 1980/1981-2012/2013, inter-annual variations in sea ice and snow thickness in Kemi, in the northern coast of the Gulf of Bothnia, Baltic Sea, depended on the air temperature, snow fall, and rain. Inter-annual variations in the November--April mean air temperature, accumulated total precipitation, snow fall, and rain, as well as ice and snow thickness in Kemi and ice concentration in the Gulf of Bothnia correlated with inter-annual variations of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, Arctic Oscillation （AO）, North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）, Scandinavian Pattern （SCA）, and Polar / Eurasian Pattern （PEU）. The strong role of PDO is a new finding. In general, the relationships with PDO were approximately equally strong as those with AO, but rain and sea ice concentration were better correlated with PDO. The correlations with PDO were, however, not persistent; for a study period since 1950 the correlations were much lower. During 1980/1981--2012/2013, also the Pacific / North American Pattern （PNA） and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） had statistical connections with the conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, revealed by analyzing their effects combined with those of PDO and AO. A reduced autumn sea ice area in the Arctic was related to increased rain and total precipitation in the following winter in Kemi. This correlation was significant for the Pan-Arctic sea ice area in September, October, and November, and for the November sea ice area in the Barents / Kara seas.展开更多
The intensity of the interannual variability(IIV)of the mean tropical cyclone(TC)genesis latitude over the western North Pacific(WNP)has been weakening significantly since the late 1990 s.It is found that the IIV of t...The intensity of the interannual variability(IIV)of the mean tropical cyclone(TC)genesis latitude over the western North Pacific(WNP)has been weakening significantly since the late 1990 s.It is found that the IIV of the mean TC genesis latitude depends largely on the strength of the out-of-phase relationship between TC genesis numbers in the north(north of 15°N)and south(south of 15°N)of the WNP.A weaker(stronger)north–south TC see-saw has led to a smaller(larger)IIV of the mean TC genesis latitude after(before)the late 1990 s.Different configurations of sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies are found to be responsible for the decadal changes in the north–south TC see-saw and dipole structure.Before the late 1990 s,the joint effect of SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific and tropical North Indian Ocean dominated,rendering the obvious north–south TC see-saw and larger IIV of the mean TC genesis latitude.After the late 1990 s,however,the dominant SST anomalies associated with TC genesis shift to the tropical central Pacific(CP)and tropical North Atlantic Ocean,which have weakened the north–south TC seesaw and reduced the IIV of the mean TC genesis latitude.These observed decadal changes in the configuration of SST anomalies are considered to be closely associated with the shift of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)from eastern Pacific(EP)type to the CP type during the recent decades.The results suggest that the increased influences from the tropical Atlantic Ocean have become more important to the variations of TC activity in the WNP during the recent decades.These results may have important implications for assessing the latitudinal distributions of TC-induced hazards.展开更多
Under the background of global warming, summer （JJA） low temperature events in Northeast China had not occurred for about 15 yr since 1994, but one such event took place in 2009. By using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis da...Under the background of global warming, summer （JJA） low temperature events in Northeast China had not occurred for about 15 yr since 1994, but one such event took place in 2009. By using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the 100-yr station temperature data at Harbin and Changchun, and the Hadley Center sea surface temperature （SST） data, this paper intends to reveal the cause, circulation background, and influencing factors of this event. Analysis of both horizontal and vertical circulations of a low-value system over Northeast China in summer 2009 during the low temperature event shows that anomalous activities of the Northeast China cold vortex （NECV） played the most direct role. A decadal cooling trend of - 0.8℃ （10 yr）-1 over 1999-2008 at Changchun and Harbin was found, which is obviously out-of-phase with the linear warming trend （0.2℃ （10 yr）-1） over 1961-2000 for Northeast China in response to the global warming. The previous winter North Pacific polar vortex （NPPV） area index, significantly positively related to the observed summer temperatures of Harbin and Changchun, was also in a significantly declining tendency. These provide favorable decadal backgrounds for the 2009 low temperature event. Different from the average anomaly field of 500-hPa height for summer 1994-2008 in Northeast China, in the summer of 2009, the Arctic Oscillation （AO） showed a strong negative phase distribution, and significant negative height anomalies dominated Northeast Asia, Aleutian Islands, and North Atlantic. Furthermore, the negative phase of North Pacific Oscillation （NPO） in the winter of 2008 was obviously strong, and it maintained in the spring of 2009. Meanwhile, the SSTA in the equatorial eastern-central Pacific Ocean in the winter of 2008 showed a La Nina phase, but the strength of the La Nina weakened obviously in the spring of 2009. The abnormally strong activities of NECV in June and July of 2009 were related to the disturbances of stationary waves that replaced the original ultra-long waves over the North Pacific region in April and May 2009. The singular value decomposition （SVD） and harmonic analysis results suggest that the anomalous phase of NPO is an important precursor for summer temperature variations over Northeast China, and also a stable planetary-scale component that can be extracted from the atmospheric circulation in addition to the chaotic components on the synoptic scale.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.41976027)。
文摘The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41506008,41606107,41476002,41776012)ZHAI F.G.is also supported by the Shandong Provincial Natural Science Foundation(No.ZR2015DQ006)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(No.2015M570609)
文摘The decadal variations of the North Pacifi c Tropical Water (NPTW) at 137°E in the western North Pacific Ocean are investigated based on the repeated hydrographic observations along with two global gridded ocean products. The results indicate that the maximum salinity of NPTW experiences signifi cant quasi-decadal variations, having maxima around 1979, 1987, 1995, 2004, and 2012, while minima around 1974, 1983, 1991, 1999, and 2008 during the period of interest. The NPTW area also shows similar quasidecadal variation, expanding/shrinking as its maximum salinity increases/decreases at the 137°E section. These variations are induced mainly by changes in the mixed layer salinity in the source region and largescale circulation in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean, both of which are related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The underlying processes at work are further confi rmed through conducting the subsurface salinity budget analysis. Besides, short-term processes are also at work through nonlinear interactions, especially after 2000.
基金funded by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No 2007CB411800)
文摘In this study, the dynamic mechanisms of interannual sea surface height （SSH） variability are investigated based on the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave model, with a focus on the effects of different levels of wind stress curl （WSC）. Maximum covariance analysis （MCA） of WSC and SSH anomalies displays a mode with significant WSC anomalies located primarily in the mid-latitude eastern North Pacific and central tropical Pacific with corresponding SSH anomalies located to the west. This leading mode can be attributed to Ekman pumping induced by local wind stress and the westward-propagating Rossby wave driven by large- scale wind stress. It is further found that in the middle latitudes, the SSH anomalies are largely determined by WSC variations associated with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation （NPGO）, rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）. The sensitivity of the predictive skill of the linear first-mode baroclinic model to different wind products is also examined.
基金the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB400504)the Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX3-SW-229)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40375028)
文摘Based on monthly precipitation and monthly mean surface air temperature (SAT),the dry/wet trends and shift of the central part of North China and their relationship to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from 1951 to 2005 have been analyzed through calculating surface wetness index (SWI). The results indicate that there was a prominent drying trend and an abrupt change in the analysis period. A per-sistent warming period with less precipitation from the mid and late 1970s to present was found,and a shift process exists from the wet to the dry in the central part of North China during 1951-2005. The transition is located in the mid to late 1970s,which should be related to the shift variation of large-scale climate background. The correlation analysis has brought about a finding of significant correlativity between PDO index (PDOI) and SAT,precipitation and SWI in this region. The correlation exhibits that the positive phase of PDOI (warm PDO phase) matches warming,less precipitation and the drought period,and the negative PDOI phase corresponds to low SAT,more precipitation and the wet period. The duration of various phases is more than 25 years. The decadal variation of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific Ocean is one of the possible causes in forming the decadal dry/wet trend and shift of the central part of North China.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)(No.2013CB430304)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Nos.41176003,41206178,41376013,41376015,41306006)+1 种基金the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(No.2013AA09A505)the Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction of China(No.GASI-01-01-12)
文摘The climate modulation on the sea surface height （SSH） in China seas is investigated using a China Ocean Reanalysis （CORA） dataset from 1958-2008. The dataset is constructed by assimilating the temperature/salinity profiles derived from the satellite altimetry data and historical observational temperature/salinity profiles. Based on the Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF）, the CORA sea surface height anomaly （SSHa） is decomposed, and the interannual and decadal variability of the first three leading modes are analyzed. On the interannual timescale, the first principal component （PC1） is significant positively correlated with the E1 Nifio/Southern Oscillation （ENSO）. On the decadal timescale, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation （NPGO） has significant negative correlation with PC 1 whereas Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） is in phase with PC3. Analysis shows that the decadal variability of SSH is mainly modulated by the wind stress curl variability related to the NPGO and PDO. In addition, the effect of net heat flux associated to the NPGO and PDO on SSH is also investigated, with net heat flux variability in the Luzon strait and tropic Pacific found to influence the decadal variability of SSH.
文摘利用EN4(the UK Met Office EN4.2.1 analyses)盐度数据发现北太平洋副热带高盐中心--北太平洋热带水(NPTW)的海表面积与体积在2000-2008年、2014-2017年存在下降趋势,2008-2014年期间存在上升趋势,进一步的研究表明,这些变化与太平洋年代际震荡(PDO)的位相转换紧密相关。利用淡水通量数据以及ECCO2(Circulation and Climate of the Ocean,Phase Ⅱ)流场数据计算分析后表明,淡水通量对NPTW的变化贡献较小,而水平输运对NPTW的表面积以及体积变化贡献较大,这与PDO正(负)位相期间北赤道流(NEC)的向北(南)摆动有关。
基金supported by the Academy of Finland (Grant no.259537)The Young Scientists Fund of National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant no.41206186) is acknowledged
文摘During years 1980/1981-2012/2013, inter-annual variations in sea ice and snow thickness in Kemi, in the northern coast of the Gulf of Bothnia, Baltic Sea, depended on the air temperature, snow fall, and rain. Inter-annual variations in the November--April mean air temperature, accumulated total precipitation, snow fall, and rain, as well as ice and snow thickness in Kemi and ice concentration in the Gulf of Bothnia correlated with inter-annual variations of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）, Arctic Oscillation （AO）, North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）, Scandinavian Pattern （SCA）, and Polar / Eurasian Pattern （PEU）. The strong role of PDO is a new finding. In general, the relationships with PDO were approximately equally strong as those with AO, but rain and sea ice concentration were better correlated with PDO. The correlations with PDO were, however, not persistent; for a study period since 1950 the correlations were much lower. During 1980/1981--2012/2013, also the Pacific / North American Pattern （PNA） and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） had statistical connections with the conditions in the Gulf of Bothnia, revealed by analyzing their effects combined with those of PDO and AO. A reduced autumn sea ice area in the Arctic was related to increased rain and total precipitation in the following winter in Kemi. This correlation was significant for the Pan-Arctic sea ice area in September, October, and November, and for the November sea ice area in the Barents / Kara seas.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41776031)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1506903)+2 种基金Guangdong Natural Science Foundation(2015A030313796)Program for Scientific Research Start-Up Funds of Guangdong Ocean UniversityFoundation for Returned Scholars of the Ministry of Education of China。
文摘The intensity of the interannual variability(IIV)of the mean tropical cyclone(TC)genesis latitude over the western North Pacific(WNP)has been weakening significantly since the late 1990 s.It is found that the IIV of the mean TC genesis latitude depends largely on the strength of the out-of-phase relationship between TC genesis numbers in the north(north of 15°N)and south(south of 15°N)of the WNP.A weaker(stronger)north–south TC see-saw has led to a smaller(larger)IIV of the mean TC genesis latitude after(before)the late 1990 s.Different configurations of sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies are found to be responsible for the decadal changes in the north–south TC see-saw and dipole structure.Before the late 1990 s,the joint effect of SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific and tropical North Indian Ocean dominated,rendering the obvious north–south TC see-saw and larger IIV of the mean TC genesis latitude.After the late 1990 s,however,the dominant SST anomalies associated with TC genesis shift to the tropical central Pacific(CP)and tropical North Atlantic Ocean,which have weakened the north–south TC seesaw and reduced the IIV of the mean TC genesis latitude.These observed decadal changes in the configuration of SST anomalies are considered to be closely associated with the shift of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)from eastern Pacific(EP)type to the CP type during the recent decades.The results suggest that the increased influences from the tropical Atlantic Ocean have become more important to the variations of TC activity in the WNP during the recent decades.These results may have important implications for assessing the latitudinal distributions of TC-induced hazards.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41175083,41275096,and40705036)National Science and Technology Support Program of China(2009BAC51B04 and 2007BAC29B01)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY 20106020 and 201106016)
文摘Under the background of global warming, summer （JJA） low temperature events in Northeast China had not occurred for about 15 yr since 1994, but one such event took place in 2009. By using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data, the 100-yr station temperature data at Harbin and Changchun, and the Hadley Center sea surface temperature （SST） data, this paper intends to reveal the cause, circulation background, and influencing factors of this event. Analysis of both horizontal and vertical circulations of a low-value system over Northeast China in summer 2009 during the low temperature event shows that anomalous activities of the Northeast China cold vortex （NECV） played the most direct role. A decadal cooling trend of - 0.8℃ （10 yr）-1 over 1999-2008 at Changchun and Harbin was found, which is obviously out-of-phase with the linear warming trend （0.2℃ （10 yr）-1） over 1961-2000 for Northeast China in response to the global warming. The previous winter North Pacific polar vortex （NPPV） area index, significantly positively related to the observed summer temperatures of Harbin and Changchun, was also in a significantly declining tendency. These provide favorable decadal backgrounds for the 2009 low temperature event. Different from the average anomaly field of 500-hPa height for summer 1994-2008 in Northeast China, in the summer of 2009, the Arctic Oscillation （AO） showed a strong negative phase distribution, and significant negative height anomalies dominated Northeast Asia, Aleutian Islands, and North Atlantic. Furthermore, the negative phase of North Pacific Oscillation （NPO） in the winter of 2008 was obviously strong, and it maintained in the spring of 2009. Meanwhile, the SSTA in the equatorial eastern-central Pacific Ocean in the winter of 2008 showed a La Nina phase, but the strength of the La Nina weakened obviously in the spring of 2009. The abnormally strong activities of NECV in June and July of 2009 were related to the disturbances of stationary waves that replaced the original ultra-long waves over the North Pacific region in April and May 2009. The singular value decomposition （SVD） and harmonic analysis results suggest that the anomalous phase of NPO is an important precursor for summer temperature variations over Northeast China, and also a stable planetary-scale component that can be extracted from the atmospheric circulation in addition to the chaotic components on the synoptic scale.
