Response of the North Pacific Oscillation to global warming in the models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report

Based on 22 of the climate models from phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we investigate the ability of the models to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation(NPO), which is the second most important factor determining the wintertime sea level pressure field in simulations of the pre-industrial control climate, and evaluate the NPO response to the future most reasonable global warming scenario(the A1B scenario). We reveal that while most models simulate the geographic distribution and amplitude of the NPO pattern satisfactorily, only 13 models capture both features well. However, the temporal variability of the simulated NPO could not be significantly correlated with the observations. Further analysis indicates the weakened NPO intensity for a scenario of strong global warming is attributable to the reduced lower-tropospheric baroclinicity at mid-latitudes, which is anticipated to disrupt large-scale and low-frequency atmospheric variability, resulting in the diminished transfer of energy to the NPO, together with its northward shift.

The 30–60-day Intraseasonal Oscillations over the Subtropical Western North Pacific during the Summer of 1998

The features of 30-60-day convection oscillations over the subtropical western North Pacific （WNP） were investigated, along with the degree of tropical-subtropical linkage between the oscillations over the WNP during summer 1998. It was found that 30-60-day oscillations were extremely strong in that summer over both the subtropical and tro]~ical WNP, providing a unique opportunity to study the behavior of subtropical oscillations and their relationship to tropical oscillations. Further analyses indicated that 30-60-day oscillations propagate westwards over the subtropical WNP and reach eastern China. In addition, 30-60-day oscillations in the subtropics are affected by those over the South China Sea （SCS） and tropical WNP through two mechanisms： （1） direct propagation from the tropics into the subtropics; and （2） a seesaw pattern between the tropics and subtropics, with the latter being predominant.

On the Weakened Relationship between Spring Arctic Oscillation and Following Summer Tropical Cyclone Frequency over the Western North Pacific:A Comparison between 1968–1986 and 1989–2007

This study documents a weakening of the relationship between the spring Arctic Oscillation （AO） and the following summer tropical cyclone （TC） formation frequency over the eastern part （150°-180°E） of the western North Pacific （WNP）. The relationship is strong and statistically significant during 1968-1986, but becomes weak during 1989-2007. The spring AO- related SST, atmospheric dynamic, and thermodynamic conditions are compared between the two epochs to understand the possible reasons for the change in the relationship. Results indicate that the spring AO leads to an E1 Nifio-like SST anomaly, lower-level anomalous cyclonic circulation, upper-level anomalous anticyclonic circulation, enhanced ascending motion, and a positive midlevel relative humidity anomaly in the tropical western-central Pacific during 1968-1986, whereas the AOrelated anomalies in the above quantities are weak during 1989-2007. Hence, the large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic anomalies are more favorable for TC formation over the eastern WNP during 1968-1986 than during 1989-2007.

The East Asia-Western North Pacific Boreal Summer Intraseasonal Oscillation Simulated in GAMIL 1.1.1

We evaluate the performance of GAMILI.1.1 in a 27-year forced simulation of the summer intraseasonal oscillation （ISO） over East Asia （EA）-western North Pacific （WNP）. The assessment is based on two mea- sures： climatological ISO （CISO） and transient ISO （TISO）. CISO is the ISO component that is phase-locked to the annual cycle and describes seasonal march. TISO is the ISO component that varies year by year. The model reasonably captures many observed features of the ISO, including the stepwise northward advance of the rain belt of CISO, the dominant periodicities of TISO in both the South China Sea-Philippine Sea （SCS-PS） and the Yangtze River Basin （YRB）, the northward propagation of 30-50-day TISO and the westward propagation of the 12-25-day TISO mode over the SCS-PS, and the zonal propagating features of three major TISO modes over the YRB. However, the model has notable deficiencies. These include the early onset of the South China Sea monsoon associated with CISO, too fast northward propagation of CISO from 20°N to 40°N and the absence of the CISO signal south of 10°N, the deficient eastward propagation of the 30-50-day TISO mode and the absence of a southward propagation in the YRB TISO modes. The authors found that the deficiencies in the ISO simulation are closely related to the model＇s biases in the mean states, suggesting that the improvement of the model mean state is crucial for realistic simulation of the intraseasonal variation.

Effects of South China Sea/western North Pacific summer monsoon on tropospheric biennial oscillation （TBO）

Several theories have been developed to explain tropical biennial oscillation （TBO）, as an air-sea interactive system to impact Asian and global weather and climate, and some models have been established to produce a TBO. A simple 5-box model, with almost all the key processes associated with TBO, can produce a TBO by including airsea interactions in the monsoon regions. Despite that, the South China Sea/western North Pacific summer monsoon （SCS/WNPSM）, a very important monsoon subsystem, is neglected. In this paper, based on the dynamical framework of 5-box model, the term of SCS/WNPSM has been added and a 6-box model has been developed. Comparing the difference of TBO sensibilities with several key parameters, air-sea coupling coefficient α, SST-thermocline feedback coefficient γand wind-evaporation feedback coefficient λ, between the modified model and original model, TBO is more sensible to the parameters in the new model. The results imply that the eastern Pacific and local wind-evaporation play more important roles in the TBO when including SCS /WNPSM.

Interdecadal variability of the tropospheric biennial oscillation in the western North Pacific

The observed tropospheric biennial oscillation （TBO） in the western North Pacific （WNP） monsoon region has an interdecadal variability with a period of 40-50 yr. That suggests a weaker effect of the TBO on the East Asia followed by a stronger one. A simple analytic model was designed to investigate the mechanism of the interdecadal variability of the TBO. The results indicated that a local TBO air-sea system not only supports the TBO variability in the WNP monsoon region but also produces an interdecadal variability of the TBO.

Variations in High-frequency Oscillations of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

Variations in the high-frequency oscillations of tropical cyclones （TCs） over the western North Pacific （WNP） are studied in numerical model simulations. Power spectrum analysis of maximum wind speeds at 10 m （MWS10） from an ensemble of 15 simulated TCs shows that oscillations are significant for all TCs. The magnitudes of oscillations in MWS10 are similar in the WNP and South China Sea （SCS）; however, the mean of the averaged significant periods in the SCS （1.93 h） is shorter than that in the open water of the WNP （2.83 h）. The shorter period in the SCS is examined through an ensemble of simulations, and a case simulation as well as a sensitivity experiment in which the continent is replaced by ocean for Typhoon Hagupit （2008）. The analysis of the convergence efficiency within the boundary layer suggests that the shorter periods in the SCS are possibly due to the stronger terrain effect, which intensifies convergence through greater friction. The enhanced convergence strengthens the disturbance of the gradient and thermal wind balances, and then contributes to the shorter oscillation periods in the SCS.

Impact of the Winter North Pacific Oscillation on the Surface Air Temperature over Eurasia and North America: Sensitivity to the Index Definition

This study analyzes the impact of the winter North Pacific Oscillation（NPO） on the surface air temperature（SAT）variations over Eurasia and North America based on six different NPO indices. Results show that the influences of the winter NPO on the SAT over Eurasia and North America are sensitive to the definition of the NPO index. The impact of the winter NPO on the SAT variations over Eurasia（North America） is significant（insignificant） when the anticyclonic anomaly associated with the NPO index over the North Pacific midlatitudes shifts westward and pronounced northerly wind anomalies appear around Lake Baikal. By contrast, the impact of the winter NPO on the SAT variations over Eurasia（North America）is insignificant（significant） when the anticyclonic anomaly over the North Pacific related to the NPO index shifts eastward and the associated northerly wind anomalies to its eastern flank extend to North America. The present study suggests that the NPO definition should be taken into account when analyzing the impact of the winter NPO on Eurasian and North American SAT variations.

The Linkage between the Pacific-North American Teleconnection Pattern and the North Atlantic Oscillation

In this study, using the ECMWF reanalysis data, the possible linkage between the Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern （PNA） and the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO） during boreal winter （December- February） is investigated. The PNA and the NAO pattern are obtained by performing Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Function （REOF） analysis on an anomalous daily mean 300-hPa geopotential height field. The composite daily NAO indices show that the NAO indices are prone to be negative （positive） when the contemporary PNA indices are extremely positive （negative）. The correlation coefficients between the daily PNA and NAO indices also confirm that, indeed, there is a significant anti-correlation between the PNA and NAO indices. The correlation peaks at a lag of 0 days （meaning contemporary correlation）, and its value is 0.202. Analyses of a newly defined Rossby wave breaking index and diagnostics of the stream function tendency equation indicate that the anti-correlation between PNA and NAO may be caused by the anomalous Rossby wave breaking events associated with the PNA pattern.

The combined effects of North Atlantic Oscillation and Western Pacific teleconnection on winter temperature in Eastern Asia during 1980−2021

As important atmospheric circulation patterns in Northern Hemisphere(NH),the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and the Western Pacific teleconnection(WP)affect the winter climate in Eurasia.In order to explore the combined effects of NAO and WP on East Asian(EA)temperature,the NAO and WP indices are divided into four phases from 1980−2021:the positive NAO and WP phase(NAO+/WP+),the negative NAO and WP phase(NAO−/WP−),the positive NAO and negative WP phase(NAO+/WP−),the negative NAO and positive WP phase(NAO−/WP+).In the phase of NAO+/WP+,the low geopotential height(GH)stays in north of EA at 50°−80°N;the surface air temperature anomaly(SATA)is 0.8−1℃lower than Southern Asian.In the phase of NAO−/WP−,the center of high temperature and GH locate in the northeast of EA;the cold air spreads to Southern Asia,causing the SATA decreases 1−1.5℃.In the phase of NAO+/WP−,the high GH belt is formed at 55°−80°N.Meanwhile,the center of high SATA locates in the north of Asia that increases 0.8−1.1℃.The cold airflow causes temperature dropping 0.5−1℃in the south of EA.The SATA improves 0.5−1.5℃in south of EA in the phase of NAO−/WP+.The belt of high GH is formed at 25°−50°N,and blocks the cold air which from Siberia.The NAO and WP generate two warped plate pressure structures in NH,and affect the temperature by different pressure configurations.NAO and WP form different GH,and GH acts to block and push airflow by affecting the air pressure,then causes the temperature to be different from the north and south of EA.Finally,the multiple linear regression result shows that NAO and WP are weakened by each other such as the phase of NAO+/WP+and NAO−/WP−.

Intraseasonal oscillation intensity over the western North Pacific:Projected changes under global warming

The 30-60-day intraseasonal oscillation(ISO) and 10-20-day ISO are two dominant oscillation modes over the western North Pacific during boreal summer.With daily data derived from eight CMIP5 models,changes of the ISO intensities are projected under the 1.5 and 2.0℃ global warming levels under the Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios.Most of the models agree that the ISO intensities increase along a belt region from the south Indochina Peninsula(ICP) to the east to the Philippines.The variation pattern shows little difference between different warming levels or scenarios.Results indicate that the spatial distribution of ISO anomalies is related with the variation of background fields.Enriched lower-level humidity and moist static energy favor the intensity increases of ISOs,which are projected to be larger over the whole western North Pacific,with the most conspicuous changes located over the east to the Philippines for humidity but over the south of the ICP for moist static energy.In contrast,the ISOs over the west to Indonesia and northeast to the Philippines decrease,which is consistent with the local descending motions.

Interdecadal Modulation of AMO on the Winter North Pacific Oscillation-Following Winter ENSO Relationship

It is known that the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is an important extratropical forcing for the occurrence of an El Ni-o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event in the subsequent winter via the “seasonal footprinting mechanism ”(SFM). This study reveals that the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can notably modulate the relationship between the winter NPO and the following winter ENSO. During the negative AMO phase, the winter NPO has significant impacts on the following winter ENSO via the SFM. In contrast, the influence of the winter NPO on ENSO is not robust at all during the positive AMO phase. Winter NPO-generated westerly wind anomalies over the equatorial western Pacific during the following spring are much stronger during negative than positive AMO phases. It is suggested that the AMO impacts the winter NPO-induced equatorial westerly winds over the western Pacific via modulating the precipitation climatology over the tropical central Pacific and via modulating the connection of the winter NPO with spring sea surface temperature in the tropical North Atlantic.

CMIP 6 models simulation of the connection between North/South Pacific Meridional Mode and ENSO

The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.

Influence of the Asian-Pacific Oscillation on Spring Precipitation over Central Eastern China

The linkage between the Asian-Pacific oscillation （APO） and the precipitation over central eastern China in spring is preliminarily addressed by use of the observed data. Results show that they correlate very well, with the positive （negative） phase of APO tending to increase （decrease） the precipitation over central eastern China. Such a relationship can be explained by the atmospheric circulation changes over Asia and the North Pacific in association with the anomalous APO. A positive phase of APO, characterized by a positive anomaly over Asia and a negative anomaly over the North Pacific in the upper-tropospheric temperature, corresponds to decreased low-level geopotential height （H） and increased high-level H over Asia, and these effects are concurrent with increased low-level H and decreased high-level H over the North Pacific. Meanwhile, an anticyclonic circulation anomaly in the upper troposphere and a cyclonic circulation anomaly in the lower troposphere are introduced in East Asia, and the low-level southerly wind is strengthened over central eastern China. These changes provide advantageous conditions for enhanced precipitation over central eastern China. The situation is reversed in the negative phase of APO, leading to reduced precipitation in this region.

Dynamic Mechanism of Interannual Sea Surface Height Variability in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre

In this study, the dynamic mechanisms of interannual sea surface height （SSH） variability are investigated based on the first-mode baroclinic Rossby wave model, with a focus on the effects of different levels of wind stress curl （WSC）. Maximum covariance analysis （MCA） of WSC and SSH anomalies displays a mode with significant WSC anomalies located primarily in the mid-latitude eastern North Pacific and central tropical Pacific with corresponding SSH anomalies located to the west. This leading mode can be attributed to Ekman pumping induced by local wind stress and the westward-propagating Rossby wave driven by large- scale wind stress. It is further found that in the middle latitudes, the SSH anomalies are largely determined by WSC variations associated with the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation （NPGO）, rather than the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO）. The sensitivity of the predictive skill of the linear first-mode baroclinic model to different wind products is also examined.

A Robustness Analysis of CMIP5 Models over the East Asia-Western North Pacific Domain

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project （CMIP） is an international community-based infrastructure that supports climate model intercomparison, climate variability, climate prediction, and climate projection. Improving the performance of climate models over East Asia and the western North Pacific has been a challenge for the climate-modeling community. In this paper, we provide a synthesis robustness analysis of the climate models participating in CMIP-Phase 5 （CMIP5）. The strengths and weaknesses of the CMIP5 models are assessed from the perspective of climate mean state, interannual variability, past climate change during the mid-Pliocene （MP） and the last millennium, and climate projection. The added values of regional climate models relative to the driving global climate models are also assessed. Although an encouraging increase in credibility and an improvement in the simulation of mean states, interannual variability, and past climate changes are visible in the progression from CMIP3 to CMIPS, some previously noticed biases such as the ridge position of the western North Pacific subtropical high and the associated rainfall bias are still evident in CMIP5 models. Weaknesses are also evident in simulations of the interannual amplitude, such as El Nino- Southern Oscillation （ENSO）-monsoon relationships. Coupled models generally show better results than standalone atmospheric models in simulating both mean states and interannual variability. Multi-model intercomparison indicates significant uncertainties in the future projection of climate change, although precipitation increases consistently across models constrained by the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Regional ocean-atmosphere coupled models are recommended for the dynamical downscaling of climate change oroiections over the East Asia-western North Pacific domain.

Roles of Multi-Scale Disturbances over the Tropical North Pacific in the Turnabout of 1997-98 El Nino

The space-time features of major vorticity disturbances over the western North Pacific during the 1997-98 El Nino ranked as one of the strongest events on record was investigated in this study. We distinguished the different roles that these disturbances had on different timescales in causing the reversal or turnabout of the El Nino event. Remarkable differences in the various disturbances of synoptic, intraseasonal, and interannual timescales were found in the time evolution, propagation, and in their contributions to the changes in nearequatorial zonal flow, which was crucial to the demise of the warm sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific. It is hypothesized that the westward-traveling synoptic and intraseasonal oscillations in the western North Pacific might be considered as a self-provided negative feedback from the El Nino and played an additional role in its reversal in comparison with other interannual internal and external forcings. In this case, the off-equatorial synoptic and intraseaonal fluctuations served as a stochastic forcing for the tropical ocean and gave rise to the aperiodicity or irregularity of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

Unstable relationship between spring NAO and summer tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the western North Pacific

The present study reveals the fact that the relationship between the spring(April–May)North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO)and the following summer(June–September)tropical cyclone(TC)genesis frequency over the western North Pacific(WNP)during the period of 1950–2018 was not stationary.It is shown that the relationship between the two has experienced a pronounced interdecadal shift,being weak and insignificant before yet strong and statistically significant after the early 1980 s.Next we compare the spring NAO associated dynamic and thermodynamic conditions,sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies,and atmospheric circulation processes between the two subperiods of 1954–1976 and 1996–2018,so as to illucidate the possible mechanism for this interdecadal variation in the NAO-TC connection.During the latter epoch,when the spring NAO was positive,enhanced low-level vorticity,reduced vertical zonal wind shear,intensified vertical velocity and increased middle-level relative humidity were present over the WNP in the summer,which is conducive to the genesis of WNP TCs.When the spring NAO is negative,the dynamic and thermodynamic factors are disadvantageous for the summertime TC formation and development over the WNP.The results of further analysis indicate that the persistence of North Atlantic tri-pole SST anomalies from spring to the subsequent summer induced by the spring NAO plays a fundamental role in the linkage between the spring NAO and summer atmospheric circulation.During the period of 1996–2018,a remarkable eastward propagating wave-train occurred across the northern Eurasian continent,forced by the anomalous SST tri-pole in the North Atlantic.The East Asian jet flow became greatly intensified,and the deep convection in the tropics was further enhanced via the changes of the local Hadley circulation,corresponding to a positive spring NAO.During the former epoch,the spring NAO-induced tri-pole SST anomalies in the North Atlantic were non-existent,and the related atmospheric circulation anomalies were extremely weak,thereby leading to the linkage between spring NAO and WNP TC genesis frequency in the following summer being insignificant.

Decadal variations of the North Pacific Tropical Water at 137°E

The decadal variations of the North Pacifi c Tropical Water (NPTW) at 137°E in the western North Pacific Ocean are investigated based on the repeated hydrographic observations along with two global gridded ocean products. The results indicate that the maximum salinity of NPTW experiences signifi cant quasi-decadal variations, having maxima around 1979, 1987, 1995, 2004, and 2012, while minima around 1974, 1983, 1991, 1999, and 2008 during the period of interest. The NPTW area also shows similar quasidecadal variation, expanding/shrinking as its maximum salinity increases/decreases at the 137°E section. These variations are induced mainly by changes in the mixed layer salinity in the source region and largescale circulation in the northwestern tropical Pacific Ocean, both of which are related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. The underlying processes at work are further confi rmed through conducting the subsurface salinity budget analysis. Besides, short-term processes are also at work through nonlinear interactions, especially after 2000.

Interannual Fluctuations of Surface Air Temperature over North America and Its Relationship to the North Pacific SST Anomaly

The characteristics of interannual fluctuations of the surface air temperature over North America are investigated by using the surface air temperature data of 130 stations during 1941 through 1980. It is found that the surface air temperature bears about ten-year time scale oscillation over the southeastern and northwestern North America and along the west coast of the United States, and it has the characteristics of quasibiennial oscillation over the eastern North America. The ten-year scale oscillation of the surface air temperature is related to that of the sea surface temperature (SST) of North Pacific through the PNA pattern atmospheric circulation anomaly over North Pacific through North America. It is shown that the North Pacific SST has a closer association with the surface air temperature over North America than the central and eastern equatorial Pacific SST. The characteristics of the seasonal variations of the relationship between the North Pacific SST and the surface air temperature over North America are also analyzed.