A teleconnection pattern of upper-tropospheric circulation anomalies over the Eurasian continent associated with the interannual variability of atmospheric convection over the tropical western North Pacific in July

热带西北太平洋大气对流的年际变化对东亚夏季气候有着显著影响,而且受到前冬ENSO的影响.然而,还有相当多的西北太平洋对流年际变化不能由前冬ENSO解释.本文表明,7月西北太平洋对流受到欧亚大陆对流层上层遥相关型的显著影响,且这一影响与前冬ENSO的影响程度相当.该遥相关型表现为位于欧洲的气旋式环流异常,中亚的反气旋式环流异常和东亚带状延伸的气旋式环流异常,并表现为7月对流层上层环流的第一主模态.基于本文的结果并结合前人的研究,作者认为这一遥相关型能通过亚洲急流出口区附近的罗斯贝波破碎引起西北太平洋对流异常.

Recent Enhancement in Co-Variability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon and the Equatorial Zonal Wind

The western North Pacific summer monsoon(WNPSM)is an important subcomponent of the Asian summer monsoon.The equatorial zonal wind(EZW)in the lower troposphere over the western Pacific may play a critical role in the evolution of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).The possible linkage between the EZW over the western Pacific and the offequatorial monsoonal winds associated with the WNPSM and its decadal changes have not yet been fully understood.Here,we find a non-stationary relationship between the WNPSM and the western Pacific EZW,significantly strengthening their correlation around the late 1980s/early 1990s.This observed shift in the WNPSM–EZW relationship could be explained by the changes in the related sea surface temperature(SST)configurations across the tropical oceans.The enhanced influence from the springtime tropical North Atlantic,summertime tropical central Pacific,and maritime continent SST anomalies may be working together in contributing to the recent intensified WNPSM–EZW co-variability.The observed recent strengthening of the WNPSM–EZW relationship may profoundly impact the climate system,including prompting more effective feedback from the WNPSM on subsequent ENSO evolution and bolstering a stronger biennial tendency of the WNPSM–ENSO coupled system.The results obtained herein imply that the WNPSM,EZW,ENSO,and the tropical North Atlantic SST may be closely linked within a unified climate system with a quasi-biennial rhythm occurring during recent decades,accompanied by a reinforcement of the WNPSM–ENSO interplay quite possibly triggered by enhanced tropical Pacific–Atlantic cross-basin interactions.These results highlight the importance of the tropical Atlantic cross-basin influences in shaping the spatial structure of WNPSM-related wind anomalies and the WNPSM–ENSO interaction.

Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Variation of the Western Edge of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High During Early Summer and the Influence of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature

This study reveals that the interannual variability of the western edge of the western North Pacific(WNP)subtropical high(WNPSH)in early summer experienced an interdecadal decrease around 1990.Correspondingly,the zonal movement of the WNPSH and the zonal extension of the high-pressure anomaly over the WNP(WNPHA)in abnormal years possess smaller ranges after 1990.The different influences of the tropical SSTAs are important for this interdecadal change,which exhibit slow El Nino decaying pattern before 1990 while rapid transformation from El Nino to La Nina after 1990.The early summer tropical SSTAs and the relevant atmospheric circulation anomalies present obvious interdecadal differences.Before 1990,the warm SSTAs over the northern Indian Ocean and southern South China Sea favor the WNPHA through eastward-propagating Kelvin wave and meridional-vertical circulation,respectively.Meanwhile,the warm SSTA over the tropical central Pacific induces anomalous ascent to its northwest through the Gill response,which could strengthen the anomalous descent over the WNP through meridional-vertical circulation and further favor the eastward extension of the WNPHA to central Pacific.After 1990,the warm SSTAs over the Maritime Continent and northern Indian Ocean cause the WNPHA through meridional-vertical and zonal-vertical circulation,respectively.Overall,the anomalous warm SSTs and ascent and the resultant anomalous descent over the WNP are located more westward and southward after 1990 than before 1990.Consequently,the WNPHA features narrower zonal range and less eastward extension after 1990,corresponding to the interdecadal decease in the interannual variability of the western edge of the WNPSH.On the other hand,the dominant oscillation period of ENSO experienced an interdecadal reduction around 1990,contributing to the change of the El Nino SSTA associated with the anomalous WNPSH from slow decaying type to rapid transformation type.

Interdecadal variability of the tropospheric biennial oscillation in the western North Pacific

The observed tropospheric biennial oscillation （TBO） in the western North Pacific （WNP） monsoon region has an interdecadal variability with a period of 40-50 yr. That suggests a weaker effect of the TBO on the East Asia followed by a stronger one. A simple analytic model was designed to investigate the mechanism of the interdecadal variability of the TBO. The results indicated that a local TBO air-sea system not only supports the TBO variability in the WNP monsoon region but also produces an interdecadal variability of the TBO.

Decadal-to-interdecadal response and adjustment of the North Pacific to prescribed surface forcing in an oceanic general circulation model

The simulation of a higher-resolution oceanic GCM forced with COADS surface conditions during 1945 ～ 1993 was analyzed with insight into how the North Pacific responds to the surface forcing. The decadal-to-interdecadal variabilities in the thermal and dynamical fields especially those associated with the 1976/1977 regime shift in the North Pacific were investigated. The model successfully captures the dominant SST anomaly mode on the decadal-to-interdecadal time scales as well as the major feature of SST anomalies in the 1976/1977 regime shift. The model also successfully reproduces two typical subduction events that link the tropical and extratropical oceanic temperature anomalies during the 1970s and the 1980s. Most importantly, the model simulates the dynamical adjustment of the upper ocean under the surface wind forcing. The typical surface circulation anomaly is characterized by a pattern that is simultaneously related to the wind stress anomalies. The typical anomalous pattern for the entire upper-ocean is characterized by coherent anomalies of two oceanic gyres, i.e. , the subtropical and subpolar gyres. The delayed response and slower adjustment of the gyres, especially of the subpolar gyre, give rise to a persistent SST anomaly in the central North Pacific. The upper-ocean heat budgets in three target regions, i.e. , the central North Pacific, the Californian coastal region and the KOE region, are examined. The cooling in the central North Pacific around 1976/1977 is attributed to the heat flux and mefidional advection anomalies. The associated warming in the Californian coastal region is only due to the heat flux anomaly. A cooling shift in the KOE region which lags that in the central basin by 3 to 4 a is largely due to the meridional advection anomaly and the heat flux acts only as a damping role.

Westward extension of summer atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific after the 1990s

本文研究了20世纪90年代前后夏季北太平洋大气环流(NPcirculation)向西扩展,并探讨了其可能的原因.结果表明,在1961-1983年期间NP中心主要位于东北太平洋,而在1994-2016年期间NP中心发生西移,至北太平洋中部进一步分析指出,90年代以后NP活动中心的西移和春季中纬度北太平洋海温(SST_NP)与NP关系的加强有关.春季SST_NP异常通过引起后期夏季北太平洋中部地表热通量(即感热通量和潜热通量)和垂直运动异常,有利于NP活动中心向西移动,此外,20世纪90年代以后,北太平洋中部海平面气压的年际变率增加,这可能是NP向西扩展的另一原因。

Enhanced correlation between ENSO and western North Pacific monsoon during boreal summer around the 1990s

西北太平洋夏季风指数与同时期夏季的Nino3.4指数的相关系数在90年代初期以后出现显著的增强。两者相关系数的这种年代际变化可能跟中太平洋型ENSO的更频繁发生以及ENSO相关联的其他热带洋盆的海表面温度异常有关。在90年代之后(之前),显著的热带大西洋(印度洋)海表面温度异常倾向伴随夏季Nino3.4海表面温度异常同时出现,并且能够增强(减弱)Nino3.4海表面温度异常所引起的西北太平洋夏季风异常,从而能够增强(减弱)Nino3.4海表面温度与西北太平洋夏季风指数之间的相关系数。另一方面,由春季北大西洋海表面温度异常所引起的前一年冬季El Nino更快的衰减速率,也能够促进夏季Nino3.4指数与西北太平洋夏季风之间村相关系数在90年代之后的增加。这些结果表明来自大西洋海温影响的增强可能导致了夏季Nino3.4指数与西北太平洋夏季风指数之间的相关系数在90年代之后的显著增加。

The Key Oceanic Regions Responsible for the Interannual Variability of the Western North Pacific Subtropical High and Associated Mechanisms

The western North Pacific subtropical high （WNPSH） is an important circulation system that impacts the East Asian summer climate. The interannual variability of the WNPSH is modulated by tropical air-sea interaction. In order to make it clear which oceanic regions are crucial to the interannual variability of the WNPSH, the research progresses in this regard in the past decade are reviewed. Based on the review, it is recognized that five oceanic regions are responsible for the interannual variability of the WNPSH in summer, including the equatorial central-eastern Pacific Ocean, tropical Indian Ocean, subtropical western North Pacific, the vicinity of the maritime continent, and the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The mechanisms how the sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） in these regions affect the WNPSH are elaborated. The formation mechanisms for the SSTAs in these five regions are discussed. Strengths and weaknesses of the climate models in simulating and predicting the WNPSH are also documented. Finally, key scientific problems deserving further studies are proposed.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY OF SURFACE WIND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC

A global atmospheric general circulation model (L9R15 AGCMs) forced by COADS SST was integrated from 1945 to 1993. Interannual and interdecadal variability of the simulated surface wind over the tropical Pacific was analyzed and shown to agree vey well with observation. Simulation of surface wind over the central-western equatorial Pacific was more successful than that over the eastern Pacific. Zonal propagating feature of interannual variability of the tropical Pacific wind anomalies and its decadal difference were also simulated successfully. The close agreement between simulation and observation on the existence of obvious interdecadal variability of tropical Pacific surface wind attested to the high simulation capability of AGCM.

Seasonally evolving dominant interannual variability mode of air-sea CO2 flux over the western North Pacific simulated by CESM1-BGC

We applied a season-reliant empirical orthogonal function(S-EOF) analysis based on the results of the Community Earth System Model, version 1-Biogeochemistry, to seasonal mean air-sea CO_2 flux over the western North Pacific(WNP)(0°–35°N, 110°E–150°E). The first leading mode accounts for 29% of the total interannual variance, corresponding to the evolution of the El Ni-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) from its developing to decaying phases. During the ENSO developing phase in the summer and fall, the contribution of surface seawater CO_2 partial pressure anomalies is greater than that of gas transfer/solubility anomalies, which contribute to increasing oceanic CO_2 uptake over the WNP. During the ENSO mature phase in the winter, the anomalous southwesterly northwest of the western North Pacific anticyclone(WNPAC) reduces the surface wind speed in the China marginal sea and thus decreases oceanic CO_2 uptake by reducing the gas transfer coefficient. In the subsequent spring, the WNPAC maintains with an eastward shift in position. The anomalous southwesterly warms sea surface temperatures in the China marginal sea by reducing evaporation and thus decreases oceanic CO_2 uptake by enhancing surface seawater CO_2 partial pressure. This process, rather than the effect of decreasing gas transfer coefficient, dominates CO_2 flux anomalies in the spring.

Relationships between Interannual and Intraseasonal Variations of the Asian–Western Pacific Summer Monsoon Hindcasted by BCC CSM 1.1(m)

Using hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model, the relationships between interannual variability （IAV） and intraseasonal variability （ISV） of the Asian-western Pacific summer monsoon are diagnosed. Predictions show reasonable skill with respect to some basic characteristics of the ISV and IAV of the western North Pacific summer monsoon （WNPSM） and the Indian summer monsoon （ISM）. However, the links between the seasonally averaged ISV （SAISV） and seasonal mean of ISM are overestimated by the model. This deficiency may be partially attributable to the overestimated frequency of long breaks and underestimated frequency of long active spells of ISV in normal ISM years, although the model is capable of capturing the impact of ISV on the seasonal mean by its shift in the probability of phases. Furthermore, the interannual relationships of seasonal mean, SAISV, and seasonally averaged long-wave variability （SALWV; i.e., the part with periods longer than the intraseasonal scale） of the WNPSM and ISM with SST and low-level circulation are examined. The observed seasonal mean, SAISV, and SALWV show similar correlation patterns with SST and atmospheric circulation, but with different details. However, the model presents these correlation distributions with unrealistically small differences among different scales, and it somewhat overestimates the teleconnection between monsoon and tropical central-eastern Pacific SST for the ISM, but underestimates it for the WNPSM, the latter of which is partially related to the too-rapid decrease in the impact of E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation with forecast time in the model.

The Relationship between the Aleutian Low and the Australian Summer Monsoon at Interannual Time Scales

The relationship between the boreal winter （December, January, February） Aleutian Low （AL） and the simultaneous Australian summer monsoon （ASM） is explored in this study. A significant correlation is found between the North Pacific index （NPI） and ASM index, the bulk of which is attributed to the significant correlation after late 1970s. Significant differences in precipitation and outgoing long-wave radiation between typical negative and positive NPI years appear over the ASM area. A regression analysis of the circulation pattern against the NPI during the three months is performed separately. We propose that the NPI is related with the ASM circulation possibly through the changes in the upper level westerly jet. In a typical negative NPI （strong Aleutian Low） year, the jet is greatly reinforced and the anomalous anticyclonic circulation to the south is thus excited, from which the easterly wind anomalies flowing into the ASM region emanate. Further, strong sinking motion over the northern entrance region of the jet is enhanced, and the local Hadley circulation anomaly between the ASM region and the coast of East Asia is strengthened. In this way, anomalous upward motion over the ASM area can thus be strengthened, and the convective activity intensified. Then the monsoon rainfall over ASM area is increased. An ＂asymmetric＂ connection between AL and the monsoon is found in this study.

Linear relationship between the interdecadal and interannual variabilities of North China rainfall in rainy season

Interdecadal and interannual timescales are dominant in the North China rainfall in rainy season (July and August). On the interdecadal timescale, the North China rainfall exhibited an abrupt decrease at the end of 1970s. In this study, we examined the effect of this abrupt rainfall decrease on the association between rainfall and circulation on the interannual timescale, and found that the interdecadal variation does not change the physical mechanism responsible for the interannual variation of North China rainfall. There is a linear relationship between the interdecadal and interannual variabilities of North China rainfall in rainy season.

Interannual variation of North China rainfall in rainy season and SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific

The rainfall in North China during rainy sea-son (July and August (JA)) exhibits a strong interannual variability. In this study, the atmospheric circulation and SST anomalies associated with the interannual variation of JA North China rainfall are examined. It is found that on the interannual timescale, the JA North China rainfall is associ-ated with significant SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific, and the North China rainfall and SST anomaly in the equatorial eastern Pacific correspond to the similar variation of the upper-level westerly jet stream over East Asia. A pos-sible mechanism is proposed for the influence of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific on the North China rainfall.

Variation in concentration of dissolved silicate in the Eastern Philippine deep sea

Upper Circumpolar Deep Water(UCDW)and North Pacifi c Deep Water(NPDW)coexist in the upper deep layer(i.e.,with a 1.2-2.0-℃potential temperature range and a 2000-4100-dbar pressure range)of the Eastern Philippine Sea.They have similar properties in potential temperature and salinity,while have a signifi cant diff erence in dissolved silicate.Based on the repeated observations along a 137°E transect from the World Ocean Database(WOD18),this study revealed the interannual variability of dissolved silicate in the upper deep layer of the Eastern Philippine Sea.Dissolved silicate increased in 1995,1996,2005,2006,and 2007,and decreased in 1997,2000,2001,2002,and 2004.Composition analysis showed that the large diff erence between positive and negative dissolved silicate anomalies occurred mainly at~15°N and north of 25°N,with the concentration reaching 4.25μmol/g.Further analysis indicated that the interannual dissolved silicate variability was related to the zonal current variation in the upper deep layer.The relatively strong(weak)westward current transport increased(decreased)NPDW to the Eastern Philippine Sea,thereby resulting in increased(decreased)dissolved silicate.

热带气旋潜在生成指数的对比分析及其在西北太平洋的改进

本研究评估了现有热带气旋(Tropical Cyclone,TC)潜在生成指数(Genesis Potential Indice,GPI)对北大西洋和西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数(TC Genesis Frequency,TCGF)时空特征的表征能力。结果表明,现阶段使用的GPIs能较好地再现两个海盆TCGF的空间分布和季节循环特征,以及北大西洋TCGF的年际变化,但几乎不能模拟西太平洋TCGF年际时间尺度上的变化。利用美国联合飓风警报中心(Joint Typhoon Warming Center,JTWC)提供的1979—2017年热带气旋最佳路径数据集和ERA-Interim再分析数据,对西北太平洋GPI进行了改进。考虑到相对涡度在西北太平洋对热带气旋生成的重要作用,将绝对涡度分离为相对涡度和地转涡度(f),移除相对湿度,使用多元线性回归的方法构建了GPI WNP。与现有GPIs相比,改进后的GPI WNP不仅对西北太平洋TCGF的空间分布和季节循环有较好的模拟能力,并且可以再现其年际变化特征。

近年来关于西北太平洋热带气旋和台风活动的气候学研究进展

本文主要综述和回顾了近年来季风系统研究中心关于西北太平洋热带气旋和台风(TCs)活动的气候学研究进展及有关的国内外研究。文中不仅回顾了最近关于夏、秋季西北太平洋利于TCs生成的大尺度环流型及其与涡旋的正压能量交换、西北太平洋TCs活动的年际和年代际及季节内的变化特征、以及今后全球变暖背景下西北太平洋TCs活动的变化趋势的气候学研究进展,而且综述了西北太平洋季风槽及热带对流耦合波动对西北太平洋上TCs生成的动力作用的研究。此外,文中还指出今后有关西北太平洋TCs活动一些亟需进一步研究的气候学问题。

关于西太平洋台风气候变异和预测的若干研究进展

在概述近几十年来关于大气环流和海温等条件与台风活动关系方面以中国学者为主的研究之后,重点介绍了最近关于西太平洋台风气候年际变异和预测研究的若干新的进展。主要包括:西太平洋台风活动频次和登陆中国台风的气候年际变化特征,以及从动力数值模式和动力统计方法两个方面如何进行台风气候的预测。关于台风气候的年际变异,重点介绍了有关台风气候年际变异和南极涛动、北太平洋涛动、北太平洋海冰覆盖面积指数以及西太平洋暖池热状态之间的联系。关于台风气候的动力数值预测,介绍了基于中国科学院大气物理研究所的气候模式所进行的第一个针对西太平洋台风气候的预测试验结果。本文还介绍了一个动力统计预测模型及其回报情况。

赤道太平洋次表层海温异常年际和年代际变率特征与ENSO循环

用美国马里兰大学提供的海洋同化(SODA)月平均资料,分析了赤道太平洋次表层海温异常年际和年代际变率的演化特征,讨论了它们对ENSO循环的影响.结果指出,赤道太平洋次表层海温异常年际和年代际变率具相似的ENSO模分布和演变过程,二者均以赤道西太平洋暖池次表层海温显著的异常中心与赤道东太平洋表层海温异常中心显著反号为主要分布特征,其演变过程通过赤道西太平洋暖池次表层海温异常中心沿海洋气候温跃层向东向上传播来完成.赤道西太平洋暖池次表层海温异常年际变率决定了ENSO循环,年代际变率对ENSO循环也有重要影响,其影响主要在中太平洋, 造成ENSO模的年代际变化.当年代际变率处于正常状态时,ENSO循环基本上是东部型冷暖事件之间的转换;当年际和年代际变率位相相同时,ENSO事件强度将会加强和持续,并出现中部型ENSO事件;当二者位相相反时, ENSO事件强度将会减弱.

西北太平洋生成热带气旋的年代际变化

为了分析热带气旋年代际变化的特征和造成这种变化的原因，利用西北太平洋编号台风资料对1949～2003年55a的西北太平洋热带气旋特点进行分析，发现西北太平洋生成的热带气旋不管是频数还是生成位置都存在明显的年代际变化，根据热带气旋频数的年代际变化，把研究的55a分成低频时期（LFP）和高频时期（HFP）分别加以考察。结果发现：热带气旋生成的高低频时期海气条件存在明显的差异，HFP的海温、对流、涡散度和切变条件都有利于西北太平洋热带气旋的生成，而LFP则明显存在物理量场的相反异常。这表示HFP的海气环境相比LFP更有利于热带气旋生成，说明了变化的海气条件是引起热带气旋频数和生成位置年代际变化的主要原因。