Historically,the price of WTI crude oil futures has long been higher than that of Brent by$2/barrel,but the spread between 2011 and 2015 was reversed and expanded to$24/barrel.In order to analyze the difference betwee...Historically,the price of WTI crude oil futures has long been higher than that of Brent by$2/barrel,but the spread between 2011 and 2015 was reversed and expanded to$24/barrel.In order to analyze the difference between two crude oil price variables with the same trend and phase separation using one method of analysis,this paper constructs a dynamic comparative analysis framework using the method of time-point decomposition of fluctuation factors to determine the different reasons and amplitudes for monthly fluctuations in the two price systems in the sample interval.The study found that the sensitive response of Brent futures price indicators to the world’s crude oil supply resulting from the depletion of oil in the North Sea oil field prompted it to rise in 2011–2015.For the WTI price system,due to the increase in the US shale oil production after 2008 and the restrictions in domestic pipeline transportation capacity,the increase in the Cushing crude oil inventory caused downward pressure on the WTI price.With the lifting of the US crude oil export ban in December 2015,arbitrage space disappeared,and the spread between the two gradually narrowed.展开更多
本文利用来自欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF——European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts）的1957年8月—2002年7月逐6 h的ERA-40海表10 m风场资料,统计分析了近45年期间北太平洋海表风场的月变化特征,以及多年平均海表风速...本文利用来自欧洲中期天气预报中心（ECMWF——European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts）的1957年8月—2002年7月逐6 h的ERA-40海表10 m风场资料,统计分析了近45年期间北太平洋海表风场的月变化特征,以及多年平均海表风速的分布特征,为海洋水文保障、海洋工程等提供参考。结果表明：（1）北太平洋的海表风场具有明显的月变化特征,10月至来年2月的风速整体高于其余月份。（2）从年平均风速来看,阿留申群岛附近海域为北太平洋年平均风速的明显大值中心,年平均风速基本在8 m/s以上;中纬度海域的年平均风速在6~7 m/s;15°N-20°N的东部海域存在一相对大值区,年平均风速在7 m/s以上;赤道西部海域的年平均风速较小,基本在4 m/s以内。展开更多
文摘Historically,the price of WTI crude oil futures has long been higher than that of Brent by$2/barrel,but the spread between 2011 and 2015 was reversed and expanded to$24/barrel.In order to analyze the difference between two crude oil price variables with the same trend and phase separation using one method of analysis,this paper constructs a dynamic comparative analysis framework using the method of time-point decomposition of fluctuation factors to determine the different reasons and amplitudes for monthly fluctuations in the two price systems in the sample interval.The study found that the sensitive response of Brent futures price indicators to the world’s crude oil supply resulting from the depletion of oil in the North Sea oil field prompted it to rise in 2011–2015.For the WTI price system,due to the increase in the US shale oil production after 2008 and the restrictions in domestic pipeline transportation capacity,the increase in the Cushing crude oil inventory caused downward pressure on the WTI price.With the lifting of the US crude oil export ban in December 2015,arbitrage space disappeared,and the spread between the two gradually narrowed.
