Study on the Promotion of Digital Trade to Northeast Asian Regional Economy

Society is currently transitioning from the era of informatization and digitization to the era of intelligence.Advanced technologies such as artificial intelligence,the Internet of Things,and big data are permeating every aspect of production and life.This penetration presents a rare opportunity for the development of digital trade and catalyzes innovation in traditional trade patterns.This paper first analyzes the inevitability of digital trade development in Northeast Asia.Secondly,it delves into the challenges faced by digital trade development and explores in-depth the promotion strategy for digital trade’s impact on the economic development of the Northeast Asia region,providing insights from various perspectives for reference.

Silent Night Rain Moistens Softly ——Random Thoughts on the 9^(th) Northeast Asian Youth Forum

The 9th Northeast Asian Youth Forum opened on July 22nd , 2012 at the International Youth Center in Seoul, Korea. Over 60 university students from China, Japan and Korea played leading roles on this 6-day forum. With the theme of "Nature and Youth Extra-curricular Activities", the Forum was designed and hosted by MAR/Initiatives

SITUATION CONFUSING BUT WAYOUT CLEAR:CHANGES AND PROSPECT OF NORTHEAST ASIAN SITUATION

Recently,in Northeast Asian situation there have occurred escalation of tension and intensification of antagonism seldom seen before.At the same time,however,there are also explorations and signs of restarting dialogue and cooperation that have stagnated since long ago.Development trends of the situation are confusing to the eye,but reconciliation and cooperation remain the way-out for

Northeast Asian Community Building: What Needs to Be Done?

The aim of the Northeast Asian community building is to create an environment for living together peacefully and for realizing prosperity through cooperation. Economically, a community will integrate regional economies and share great interests for common prosperity. Politically, a community will stabilize the region with trust and cooperation. In terms of security, a community will realize the lasting peace of the region. The three economies of China, Japan, and the ROK account for a vast majority of Northeast Asia＇s regional economy. China and the ROK are two key players in the Northeast Asian community building. China-ROK cooperation will be helpful for China-Japan relations that now appear to be in a difficult situation. Northeast Asian economic cooperation has developed into a multi-layered structure both in institutional and non-institutional ways. In order to build the Northeast Asian community, those three countries must first improve and make three close bilateral relationships. However, Northeast Asian community building should not just include China, Japan, and the ROK. The DPRK, Mongolia, and also Russia should be engaged as early as possible. Northeast Asian community is a vision and also a dream that needs great efforts to be realized by both a good spirit and real actions.

The Impacts of Moisture Transport of East Asian Monsoon on Summer Precipitation in Northeast China

By using the ECMWF reanalysis daily data and daily precipitation data of 80 stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2002, the impacts of moisture transport of East Asian summer monsoon on the summer precipitation anomaly in Northeast China, and the relationship between the variation of moisture budget and the establishment of East Asian summer monsoon in this region are studied. The results demonstrate that the moisture of summer precipitation in Northeast China mainly originates from subtropical, South China Sea, and South Asia monsoon areas. East China and its near coastal area are the convergent region of the monsoonal moisture currents and the transfer station for the currents continually moving northward. The monsoonal moisture transport, as an important link or bridge, connects the interaction between middle and low latitude systems. In summer half year, there is a moisture sink in Northeast China where the moisture influx is greater than outflux. The advance transport and accumulation of moisture are of special importance to pentad time scale summer precipitation. The onset, retreat, and intensity change of the monsoonal rainy season over Northeast China are mainly signified by the moisture input condition along the southern border of this area. The establishment of East Asian summer monsoon in this area ranges from about 10 July to 20 August and the onset in the west is earlier than that in the east. The latitude that the monsoon can reach is gradually northward from west to east, reaching 50°N within longitude 120°-135°E. In summer, the difference of air mass transport between summers with high and low rainfall mainly lies in whether more air masses originating from lower latitudes move northward through East China and its coastal areas, consequently transporting large amounts of hot and humid air into Northeast China.

近十年我国涡旋系统的研究进展

近年我国暴雨和强对流等中小尺度灾害性天气频发,涡旋是产生这些灾害天气的重要天气系统之一。为了不断提高对我国涡旋及其产生的暴雨和强对流天气发生发展机理的认识和预报准确率,本文对容易引发长江流域沿线灾害天气的三类涡旋(高原低涡、西南低涡和大别山涡)及对北方地区暴雨、强对流天气有重要影响的东北冷涡、中亚低涡的主要研究成果进行了梳理。主要回顾了近十年这些涡旋的识别方法、时空分布统计特征、三维结构以及产生的暴雨、强对流天气机理。最后,对与涡旋系统以及相关天气的研究与预报中的问题、未来发展方向进行了简要讨论和展望。

东北亚国家数字经济快速发展背景下中国数字经济发展的挑战和新路径

当前互联网、云计算、大数据、人工智能等新一代信息技术的创新和数字经济与传统产业的深度融合,使商业结构和行业理念发生了全面变化。全球传统产业加速向数字化、网络化、智能化转型升级,数字经济规模持续扩大。为应对全球数字化发展趋势,东北亚各国抓住数字经济快速发展带来的新机遇,聚焦数字经济发展,扩大合作不断向深度和广度延伸。本文从数字经济总体规模、数字基础设施建设、数字化政府建设转型、数字竞争力和ICT产业发展等五个方面详细梳理东北亚国家数字经济发展现状,分析域内各国数字经贸多领域合作中面临的挑战,在此基础上,探索东北亚国家数字经济快速发展背景下中国数字经济发展新路径,聚焦东北亚跨境数字服务贸易平台建设、中国东北—俄罗斯远东数字自贸区建设,释放高端智库论坛发展效能,抢抓数字时代东北亚区域经贸合作新机遇。

河北阳原马鞍山遗址1997-1998年发掘基本材料与初步认识

马鞍山遗址位于泥河湾盆地桑干河北岸二级阶地,是虎头梁遗址群的重要组成部分。1997-1998年发掘获得多层古人类活动面,石制品和动物化石数以万计,编号标本3549件,遗迹包括十余处火塘和一个可能为储藏坑的遗迹。^(14)C测年的贝叶斯模型显示,遗址校正后的年代大致距今1.7-1.5万年。石制品以火山角砾岩为主要原料,以楔形细石核技法为主要特征,石器类型多样;动物化石数量较少,主要为羊、马、牛等大中型偶蹄动物,还有少量鸵鸟蛋皮串珠和1件骨锥。这些发现为认识泥河湾盆地与东北亚地区在更新世末期的人群交流与文化互动提供了重要线索,也是探讨华北北部地区旧石器-新石器过渡阶段历史过程的关键材料。

Impacts of Two Types of Northward Jumps of the East Asian Upper-tropospheric Jet Stream in Midsummer on Rainfall in Eastern China

The East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream （EAJS） typically jumps north of 45~N in midsummer. These annual northward jumps are mostly classified into two dominant types： the first type corresponds to the enhanced westerly to the north of the EAJS＇s axis （type A）, while the second type is related to the weakened westerly within the EAJS＇s axis （type B）. In this study, the impacts of these two types of northward jumps on rainfall in eastern China are investigated. Our results show that rainfall significantly increases in northern Northeast China and decreases in the Yellow River-Huaihe River valleys, as well as in North China, during the type A jump. As a result of the type B jump, rainfall is enhanced in North China and suppressed in the Yangtze River valley. The changes in rainfall in eastern China during these two types of northward jumps are mainly caused by the northward shifts of the ascending air flow that is directly related to the EAJS. Concurrent with the type A （B） jump, the EAJS-related ascending branch moves from the Yangtze-Huai River valley to northern Northeast （North） China when the EAJS＇s axis jumps from 40~N to 55~N （50~N）. Meanwhile, the type A jump also strengthens the Northeast Asian low in the lower troposphere, leading to more moisture transport to northern Northeast China. The type B jump, however, induces a northwestward extension of the lower-tropospheric western North Pacific subtropical high and more moisture transport to North China.

2023年麦收期河南省连阴雨的气候特征和可能成因

2023年麦收期河南省出现了罕见的连阴雨天气,降水和阴雨日数异常偏多,分别为自1961年以来的历史第五位和第二位。分析连阴雨的可能气候成因,主要结论如下:(1)造成连阴雨的环流形势为欧亚中高纬度西高东低,乌拉尔山高压脊持续发展并出现阶段性阻塞,东北冷涡活跃,冷空气能持续南下,西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)偏北、偏强且异常偏西,来自副高西北侧边缘的暖湿气流和冷空气在河南省交汇。(2)副高偏强、偏北、偏西是由偏强、偏北、偏大、偏东的南亚高压和偏强、偏北的东亚副热带西风急流(以下简称西风急流)的引导所致,而东南亚对流层中高层的暖中心偏大、偏北和偏东且呈东西向带状分布,使南亚高压形成了上述的特征。暖中心和东北冷涡的共同作用,使东亚中高层的气温梯度增大,进而加强了西风急流。(3)2023年前期的La Ni1a事件有利于麦收期副高偏北,但不利于副高偏强和明显偏西。麦收期由于台风扰动由泰国湾至菲律宾群岛以东的热带西太平洋对流活跃释放的凝结潜热较多,以及麦收期前期的春季和麦收期伊朗高原至青藏高原的地面感热和潜热较强,使暖中心形成了上述的特征,进而决定了南亚高压和副高的特征。(4)2023年麦收期北大西洋海温偏高,以及北大西洋三极子为负位相,导致了乌拉尔山高压脊持续发展并出现阶段性阻塞,麦收期前期的春季和麦收期伏尔加河至贝加尔湖西北侧地面感热和潜热偏强,而下游贝加尔湖东南侧至鄂霍次克海地面感热和潜热偏弱一定程度上导致上述两区域分别出现了大范围的位势高度正距平和负距平。

A Study on Water Vapor Transport and Budget of Heavy Rain in Northeast China

The characteristics of moisture transport and budget of widespread heavy rain and local heavy rain events in Northeast China are studied using the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis 6-hourly and daily data and daily precipitation data of 200 stations in Northeast China from 1961-2005. The results demonstrate that during periods with widespread heavy rain in Northeast China, the Asian monsoon is very active and the monsoonal northward moisture transport is strengthened significantly. The widespread heavy rainfall obtains enhanced water vapor supply from large regions where the water vapor mainly originates from the Asian monsoon areas, which include the East Asian subtropical monsoon area, the South China Sea, and the southeast and southwest tropical monsoon regions. There are several branches of monsoonal moisture current converging on East China and its coastal areas, where they are strengthened and then continue northward into Northeast China. Thus, the enhanced northward monsoonal moisture transport is the key to the widespread heavy rain in Northeast China. In contrast, local heavy rainfall in Northeast China derives water vapor from limited areas, transported by the westerlies. Local evaporation also plays an important role in the water vapor supply and local recycling process of moisture. In short, the widespread heavy rains of Northeast China are mainly caused by water vapor advection brought by the Asian monsoon, whereas local heavy rainfall is mainly caused by the convergence of the westerly wind field.

中国与东北亚国家北极事务合作可行性探究

中、日、韩、俄四国同为《斯匹次卑尔根群岛条约》以及《联合国海洋法公约》缔约国,且同属“北极利益攸关国”以及北极理事会观察成员国。俄罗斯虽为北极国家,但自乌克兰危机的“外溢”使得俄罗斯与西方国家之间战略互信度大幅降低后,俄罗斯的北极开发迫切需要合作伙伴。中、日、韩、俄四国在北极航道开通、资源开采、科研探索、环境保护上具有广泛的合作空间与共同利益。但受地缘政治的影响,以及中美竞争持续的升温,中国与东北亚国家在北极事务上的合作受到限制和挤压。基于此,中国与东北亚国家在北极事务上的合作路径应予优化:一是以低政治领域为首要合作方向。以环境保护、科学考察等低政治领域为抓手,推动四国迅速打破双边合作壁垒,从双边合作向多边合作转型。二是以“冰上丝绸之路”为主要合作载体。“冰上丝绸之路”中北极航道以及北极资源勘探开发等内容与日韩两国北极政策相契合,属于四国共同国家利益交汇处。三是以优势互补化解同质化竞争。中、日、韩要发挥各自在资金、技术、制造、运输等方面的优势,以预防船舶碰撞以及油污泄漏为三国总体合作目标,携手通过“冰上丝绸之路”构建中国与东北亚国家北极能源与运输命运共同体。

人类命运共同体视域下的东北亚经济共同体构建

从实践来看,东北亚各国经济互补,无论是制度合作还是功能合作,都具备一定基础,但总体而言,东北亚地区共同的整体性合作平台缺失。面对全球变局,东北亚亟待在人类命运共同体视域下增进构建“经济共同体”的区域共识,整合并完善既有合作机制,形成区域合力,共同应对外部不利环境的冲击,同时还应依托数字经济等积极因素,激发地区经济发展活力,共同谋求经济复苏与增长。未来基于人类命运共同体视域构建东北亚经济共同体,应该以凝聚“区域共生”理念为基础,通过制度合作、功能合作、地方合作、应急合作的“四重叠加”,打造面向未来的东北亚经济区,具体包括:基于经济链接,凝聚形成东北亚“区域共生”理念;加强“区域意识”,推动东北亚各国的集体认同;深化多层次合作,夯实东北亚经济区建设根基;强化国家发展战略对接,逐步推进东北亚经济区建设。

东北地区打造对外开放新前沿的重要意义与主要举措

我们要深入学习贯彻党的二十大精神,在新的高度上认识东北地区打造对外开放新前沿的重要意义,制定有效的对策推进相关工作。首先,党的二十大报告全面阐述了中国式现代化的理论内涵和实践方向,提出积极构建双循环的新发展格局,为东北地区打造对外开放新前沿指明了方向。其次,要充分认识在构建新发展格局背景下东北打造对外开放新前沿的意义。东北振兴关系到自主发展和国家安全;打造对外开放新前沿是以高水平对外开放为核心;助力国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展模式。再次,在基本方向与具体举措方面,一是深化东北与东北亚主要国家的经济合作,推进新时期的“深耕日韩”和强化对俄合作;二是更加深度参与合作共建“一带一路”,实现东北地区全方位对外开放;三是借力RCEP等区域合作和国内的自贸试验区等机制,推动制度性开放和创新发展。

美韩同盟70年:走向“全球全面战略同盟”的态势

2023年是美韩缔结同盟70周年。两国关系朝全球、全面、战略同盟方向演进,同盟对美、韩两国的战略重要性上升。美韩同盟合作地理范围超越朝鲜半岛,向亚太地区和全球扩展;同盟合作领域不断延伸,从冷战时期军事同盟扩展到经济同盟、技术同盟、价值观同盟。尹锡悦政府提出构建“全球全面战略同盟”,取得一定进展:美国重申对韩核保护,“延伸威慑”升级。美韩协调推进“印太战略”、全球性合作,进一步加强经济、科技、价值观合作。展望未来,“全球全面战略同盟”构建仍面临多重制约。

中日东北亚海域大风浪预警信息对比分析

为保障东北亚海域船舶航行安全,分析了中日两国发布的大风浪预警信息的特点,提出了应用方面的注意事项。介绍了一种新型海事气象安全保障服务软件,并给出了应用实例,为船舶驾驶员和航运企业安全管理人员提供确保大风浪中航行安全的新思路。

美国新版“印太战略”下的韩日关系

韩日关系是东北亚地区一组重要的双边关系,且韩国、日本通过“共享”美国这一盟友使两国在战略与安全领域形成了一种特殊联系。冷战后,韩日关系因贸易、历史等原因龃龉不断。双边关系在2018年之后不断螺旋式下降,摩擦与冲突程度远超以往,其走向备受国际社会关注。2022年初,美国拜登政府出台了新版“印太战略”,将盟友视为遏制中国、维护霸权的战略资产,明确将日本与韩国置于构筑美国同盟网络的关键位置,突出美日同盟与美韩同盟在美国新版“印太战略”中的支撑地位,为韩日关系发展注入了新动力。近一年来,韩日关系在美国因素影响下呈现不断向好的新趋势。韩日政权先后更替,客观上为两国关系发展提供了适宜的内部“土壤”。双方相互的战略需求为韩日关系转圜提供了关键前提,但两国间结构性、内生性矛盾仍存。未来,韩日关系战术性缓和概率较大,但战略性和解空间有限。

低温经济与东北亚经济发展:优势、现实困境及路径选择

气候变暖正对全球自然、社会及经济系统带来持续性损害,但温度与区域人口增长、农业及工业等行业的发展以及经济增长之间存在非线性关系,全球经济发展最适宜区域正逐渐向高纬度地区转移,这或将改变未来全球经济发展模式。在低温经济下,低温地区将凭借丰富的农业资源、渔业资源、能源资源、劳动力资源及广阔的经济发展前景获得新活力。抓住新机遇,应对新挑战,是东北亚地区国家经济发展的必然选择。东北亚地区在地理位置、气候环境及产业上均具有明显优势,但也在经济发展与环境保护平衡、绿色低碳转型、减缓与适应气候变化的技术发展等方面面临巨大挑战,可通过携手应对气候变化提高区域适应性、构建低温经济下东北亚经济发展命运共同体及高质量自由贸易区网络等方式,为未来低温经济下东北亚经济发展提供帮助。

东北亚安全与发展环境的再塑造——以人类安全共同体为视角

构建人类安全共同体需要处理几对关系即聚焦安全与发展的“可持续安全观”、统筹自身安全与共同安全的“合作安全观”、树立相对安全与绝对安全的“辩证安全观”、提倡传统安全与非传统安全的“综合安全观”。但目前东北亚的安全形势存在着四个短板,即东北亚安全结构的不对称性——安全短板与经济长板的失衡;安全形势的不稳定性——绝对安全与相对安全的错位;东北亚安全的脆弱性——传统安全与非传统安全综合安全的缺乏;东北亚安全意识的竞争性——自身安全与共同安全的对立。为此,针对短板,以合作安全为引领解决东北亚安全结构的不平衡性、以共同安全为核心解决东北亚安全的脆弱性、以持续安全为动力化解矛盾消除不安全不稳定的土壤,以综合安全为保障综合施策协调推动东北亚的安全治理。通过打造人类安全命运共同体,塑造有利于东北亚和平与发展的战略安全环境。