The Coordinated Influence of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperature and Arctic Sea Ice on Anomalous Northeast China Cold Vortex Activities with Different Paths during Late Summer

The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)during late summer(from July to August)is identified and classified into three types in terms of its movement path using machine learning.The relationships of the three types of NCCV intensity with atmospheric circulations in late summer,the sea surface temperature(SST),and Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)in the preceding months,are analyzed.The sensitivity tests by the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3(CAM5.3)are used to verify the statistical results.The results show that the coordination pattern of East Asia-Pacific(EAP)and Lake Baikal high pressure forced by SST anomalies in the North Indian Ocean dipole mode(NIOD)during the preceding April and SIC anomalies in the Nansen Basin during the preceding June results in an intensity anomaly for the first type of NCCV.While the pattern of high pressure over the Urals and Okhotsk Sea and low pressure over Lake Baikal during late summer-which is forced by SST anomalies in the South Indian Ocean dipole mode(SIOD)in the preceding June and SIC anomalies in the Barents Sea in the preceding April-causes the intensity anomaly of the second type.The third type is atypical and is not analyzed in detail.Sensitivity tests,jointly forced by the SST and SIC in the preceding period,can well reproduce the observations.In contrast,the results forced separately by the SST and SIC are poor,indicating that the NCCV during late summer is likely influenced by the coordinated effects of both SST and SIC in the preceding months.

An Extreme Gale Event in East China under the Arctic Potential Vorticity Anomaly through the Northeast China Cold Vortex

Arctic changes influence not only temperature and precipitation in the midlatitudes but also contribute to severe convection.This study investigates an extreme gale event that occurred on 30 April 2021 in East China and was forced by an Arctic potential vorticity(PV)anomaly intrusion.Temperature advection steered by storms contributed to the equatorward propagation of Arctic high PV,forming the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV).At the upper levels,a PV southward intrusion guided the combination of the polar jet and the subtropical jet,providing strong vertical wind shear and downward momentum transportation to the event.The PV anomaly cooled the upper troposphere and the northern part of East China,whereas the lower levels over southern East China were dominated by local warm air,thus establishing strong instability and baroclinicity.In addition,the entrainment of Arctic dry air strengthened the surface pressure gradient by evaporation cooling.Capturing the above mechanism has the potential to improve convective weather forecasts under climate change.This study suggests that the more frequent NCCV-induced gale events in recent years are partly due to high-latitude waviness and storm activities,and this hypothesis needs to be investigated using more cases.

Modulation of the late summer Northeast China cold vortex by previous-winter ENSO

本文利用再分析资料,研究了前冬ENSO对夏末东北冷涡(NCCV)的调制作用.结果表明,前冬ENSO与夏末NCCV强度之间存在显著的相关性,El Nino(La Ni?a)对应于弱(强)的NCCV.印度洋海盆模态(IOBM)在前冬ENSO对夏末东北亚地区大气环流的影响中起着至关重要的作用.作为东部型El Nino的被动响应,IOBM可以从前冬一直持续至夏末,并在夏末激发“中国中部上空气旋—东北亚地区上空反气旋”的经向遥相关模态,从而不利于NCCV增强.反之亦然.此外,印度洋的信号在中部型El Nino和中性年份相对较弱,使得它们对于NCCV的影响不显著.

Classification of Northeast China Cold Vortex Activity Paths in Early Summer Based on K-means Clustering and Their Climate Impact

The classification of the Northeast China Cold Vortex(NCCV)activity paths is an important way to analyze its characteristics in detail.Based on the daily precipitation data of the northeastern China(NEC)region,and the atmospheric circulation field and temperature field data of ERA-Interim for every six hours,the NCCV processes during the early summer(June)seasons from 1979 to 2018 were objectively identified.Then,the NCCV processes were classified using a machine learning method(k-means)according to the characteristic parameters of the activity path information.The rationality of the classification results was verified from two aspects,as follows:(1)the atmospheric circulation configuration of the NCCV on various paths;and(2)its influences on the climate conditions in the NEC.The obtained results showed that the activity paths of the NCCV could be divided into four types according to such characteristics as the generation origin,movement direction,and movement velocity of the NCCV.These included the generation-eastward movement type in the east of the Mongolia Plateau(eastward movement type or type A);generation-southeast longdistance movement type in the upstream of the Lena River(southeast long-distance movement type or type B);generationeastward less-movement type near Lake Baikal(eastward less-movement type or type C);and the generation-southward less-movement type in eastern Siberia(southward less-movement type or type D).There were obvious differences observed in the atmospheric circulation configuration and the climate impact of the NCCV on the four above-mentioned types of paths,which indicated that the classification results were reasonable.

Study on the Evolution of a Northeast China Cold Vortex during the Spring of 2010

Based on the final analysis data with horizontal resolution of 1°× 1°(four times a day) from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP), a typical Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) during the spring of 2010 was examined with the quasi-Lagrange- form eddy flux circulation(EFC) budget equation. Results indicated that the mechanisms that account for the development, maintenance, and attenuation of the cyclone varied with levels and stages. Displacement of the cyclone and transports by background environmental circulations dominated the variation of the cyclone in the middle and upper levels, whereas displacement and divergence associated with the cyclone dominated the evolution of the NCCV in the middle and lower levels. Moreover, interactions between the NCCV and other subsynoptic weather systems were important for the development of the cyclone, and the pattern of background environmental circulations was also important for the evolution of the NCCV, since the cyclone enhanced(weakened) as it moved from areas of low(high) vorticity to high(low) ones.

Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006-2021

As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia,the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)substantially influences weather and climate in this region.So far,systematic assessment on the performance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried out.Based on the Beijing Climate Centre(BCC)and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal timescale.The results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the seasonal variations in the intensity,active days,and spatial distribution of NCCVs;however,the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the observations.Diagnostic analysis shows that the differences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S models.Nonetheless,in the deterministic forecasts,BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4-5(5-6)pentads,and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1-2 pentads longer than that of individual members.In the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities,BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days,respectively;both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events,with better performance in winter than in summer.The results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

Mechanisms for the Formation of Northeast China Cold Vortex and Its Activities and Impacts:An Overview

In the mid 20th century, great efforts were made to investigate the formation process of high-latitude cold vortex, which is regarded as a major weather system in the atmospheric circulation. In the late 1970s, Chinese researchers noticed that the Northeast China cold vortex （NECV） is an active and frequently occurring weather system over Northeast Asia, which is generated under specific conditions of topography and land-sea thermal contrast on the local and regional scales. Thereby, the NECV study was broadened to include synoptic situations, mesoscale and dynamic features, the heavy rain process, etc. Since the 21st century, in the context of the global warming, more attention has been paid to studies of the mechanisms that cause the NECV variations during spring and early summer as well as the climatic impacts of the NECV system. Note that the NECV activity, frequent or not, not only affects local temperature and precipitation anomalies, but also regulates the amount of precipitation over northern China, the Huai River basin, and the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. The NECV influence can even reach the Guangdon~ Guangxi region. However, compared to the achievements for the blocking system study, theoretical studies with regard to the NECV system are still insufficient. Research activities regarding the mechanisms for the NECV formation, particularly theoretical studies using linear or weak nonlinear methods need to be strengthened in the future. Meanwhile, great efforts should be made to deepen our understanding of the relations of the NECV system to the oceanic thermal forcing, the low-frequency atmospheric variations over mid-high latitudes, and the global warming.

The extreme Northeast China cold vortex activities in the late spring of 2021 and possible causes involved

Record-breaking numbers of Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)occurred during the late spring(April-May)of 2021,which provided favorable background for more severe convection weather(such as hailstorm and tornado)happened and struck Jiangsu and Hubei provinces,China,causing heavy casualties and property losses.To better understand the possible causes of extremely abnormal NCCV activities,the external forcing and dynamical analysis was conducted.The results show that the extreme NCCV activity is regulated by the preceding sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical Pacific,the snow conditions over the Tibetan Plateau,and the wave-mean flow interaction over the Eurasian continent.During the preceding autumn and winter in 2020,a moderate La Niña event occurred over the tropical Pacific,which triggered the Pacific-North America teleconnection pattern(PNA)like wave train and further dispersed the Rossby wave energy downstream along the mid-latitude westerly jet,forming a zonal wave train over the Eurasian continent.Moreover,the second minimum snow depth was recorded over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau during the boreal winter of 2020/2021,which induced a concurrent local anomalous anticyclone and a cyclone over northeast Asia in the following spring.Finally,the anomalous circulation is capable of achieving energy from the mean state through barotropic energy conversion and strengthening the downstream wave train accordingly.This study highlights the joint impacts of external forcings and internal atmospheric processes on the NCCV activity.

Objective identification research on cold vortex and mid-summer rainy periods in Northeast China

Considering the differences between the Northeast China Cold Vortex （CV） and the Mid-Summer （MS） rainy period and their corresponding atmospheric circulations are comprehensively analyzed, and the objective identification methods of defining the annual beginning and ending dates of Northeast China CV and MS rainy periods are developed respectively. The annual beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period is as follows. In a period from April to August, if daily regional mean precipitation ryi is larger than yearly regional mean precipitation R （or 2R） on a certain day, the station precipitation rs is larger than the station yearly mean precipitation （r/ （or 2（r）） in at least 50% of stations in Northeast China, and this condition is satisfied in the following 2 （7） days, then this date is defined as the beginning date of the CV （MS） rainy period. While the definition of the ending date of the MS rainy period shows the opposite process to its beginning date. With this objective identification method, the multi-year average （1981-2010） beginning date of the CV rainy period is May 3, the beginning date of the MS rainy period is June 27, the ending day of the CV rainy period is defined as the day before the beginning date of the MS rainy period, and the ending date of the MS rainy period is August 29. Meanwhile, corresponding anomaly analysis at a 500-hPa geopotential height, 850-hPa wind, Omega and relative humidity fields all show that the definitions of the average beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have a certain circulation meaning. Furthermore, the daily evolution of the CV index, meridional and zonal wind index, etc. all show that these objectively defined beginning and ending dates of the CV and MS rainy periods have climate significance.

Quadrant-Averaged Structure and Evolution Mechanisms of a Northeast Cold Vortex during Its Mature Stage

A Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) that maintained from 0200 UTC 3 July to 0500 UTC 3 July 2013 and caused several heavy rainfall events was analyzed in detail to reveal its quadrant-averaged structure and main maintaining mechanisms during its mature stage. Results indicated the vortex's intensity, divergence, ascending motions, precipitable water(PW), and thermal structures were all characterized by significant unevenness, and their main pattern changed gradually during the mature stage. Mechanisms accounting for the maintenance of the NCCV were also characterized by remarkable unevenness. Within different quadrants, dominant factors for the vortex's evolution may have differed from each other significantly. The NCCV-averaged vorticity budget revealed that the vertical advection of vorticity, which is closely related to convective activities, was the most favorable factor for maintaining the NCCV, whereas the tilting effect, which is closely related to the vertical shear of the horizontal wind(horizontal vorticity), was the most detrimental factor.

The Short-Duration Heavy Rainfall in Different Quadrants of Northeast China Cold Vortices

The Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)is one of the main synoptic-scale systems causing short-duration heavy rainfall(SDHR)in Northeast China.Environmental conditions(e.g.,water vapor,instability,and vertical wind shear)are known to be distinctly different over the four quadrants of NCCVs,rendering prediction of the SDHR related to NCCVs(NCCV_SDHR)more challenging.Based on 5-yr hourly rainfall observations from 3196 automatic weather stations and ERA5 reanalysis data,10,232 NCCV_SDHR events were identified and divided into four quadrant groups according to their relative position to the center of the NCCV(CVC).The results show that the southeast quadrant features the highest frequency of SDHR,with stronger intensity,longer duration,and wider coverage;and the SDHR in different quadrants presents different formation mechanisms and varied temporal evolution.A new coordinate system is established relative to the CVC that uses the CVC as the origin and the radius of the NCCV(r CV)as the unit distance.In this new coordinate system,all of the NCCV_SDHR events in the 5-yr study period are synthesized.It is found that the occurrence frequency of NCCV_SDHR initially increases and then decreases with increasing distance from the CVC.The highest frequency occurs mainly between 0.8 and 2.5 times r CV from the CVC in the southeast quadrant.This can be attributed to the favorable conditions,such as convergence of the low-level shear line and abundant water vapor,which are concentrated in this region.Furthermore,high-frequency NCCV_SDHR larger than 50 mm(NCCV_SDHR50)is observed to be closer to the CVC.When NCCV_SDHR50occurs,the NCCV is in closer proximity to the subtropical high,resulting in stronger low-level convergence and more abundant water vapor.Additionally,there are lower lifting condensation levels and stronger 0-6-and 0-1-km vertical wind shears in these environments.These findings provide a valuable reference for more accurate prediction of NCCV_SDHR.

2021年11月7—9日辽宁省极端雨雪天气分析

选用常规气象观测资料、人工加密观测资料和NCEP/NCAR格点资料,对2021年11月7—9日辽宁省极端雨雪天气进行诊断分析。结果表明:东北冷涡和地面气旋为此次极端雨雪天气的主要影响系统,对流层中低层辐合、高层辐散以及强的冷暖气流交汇,是产生极端雨雪天气的主要原因;高低空急流耦合和高空辐散抽吸作用,配合东北冷涡动力抬升作用,暖湿低空急流沿冷垫爬升,进一步加强了上升运动。暖湿急流为此次极端雨雪天气提供了充沛的水汽条件,暖湿急流的增强对应水汽辐合作用增强,配合低层冷垫和东北冷涡的动力抬升作用,对降雪有明显增幅作用;地面辐合线沿地形分布,触发了此次极端强降雪天气。地形阻挡导致地面冷空气堆积形成冷垫,是极端降雪天气发生的重要原因。温度层结差异是鞍山、岫岩雨雪相态差异的主要原因。具有冻结层特征的低层冷垫,为鞍山极端暴雪提供了有利的温度层结条件;融化层厚度和地面温度是岫岩出现冻雨的关键因素。

2023年麦收期河南省连阴雨的气候特征和可能成因

2023年麦收期河南省出现了罕见的连阴雨天气,降水和阴雨日数异常偏多,分别为自1961年以来的历史第五位和第二位。分析连阴雨的可能气候成因,主要结论如下:(1)造成连阴雨的环流形势为欧亚中高纬度西高东低,乌拉尔山高压脊持续发展并出现阶段性阻塞,东北冷涡活跃,冷空气能持续南下,西太平洋副热带高压(以下简称副高)偏北、偏强且异常偏西,来自副高西北侧边缘的暖湿气流和冷空气在河南省交汇。(2)副高偏强、偏北、偏西是由偏强、偏北、偏大、偏东的南亚高压和偏强、偏北的东亚副热带西风急流(以下简称西风急流)的引导所致,而东南亚对流层中高层的暖中心偏大、偏北和偏东且呈东西向带状分布,使南亚高压形成了上述的特征。暖中心和东北冷涡的共同作用,使东亚中高层的气温梯度增大,进而加强了西风急流。(3)2023年前期的La Ni1a事件有利于麦收期副高偏北,但不利于副高偏强和明显偏西。麦收期由于台风扰动由泰国湾至菲律宾群岛以东的热带西太平洋对流活跃释放的凝结潜热较多,以及麦收期前期的春季和麦收期伊朗高原至青藏高原的地面感热和潜热较强,使暖中心形成了上述的特征,进而决定了南亚高压和副高的特征。(4)2023年麦收期北大西洋海温偏高,以及北大西洋三极子为负位相,导致了乌拉尔山高压脊持续发展并出现阶段性阻塞,麦收期前期的春季和麦收期伏尔加河至贝加尔湖西北侧地面感热和潜热偏强,而下游贝加尔湖东南侧至鄂霍次克海地面感热和潜热偏弱一定程度上导致上述两区域分别出现了大范围的位势高度正距平和负距平。

东北冷涡背景下三类区域性强对流天气过程时空分布和环境特征对比分析

东北冷涡是造成中国暖季强对流的重要天气尺度系统之一。为对比东北冷涡与不同类型强对流过程的时空关系及其环境特征差异,基于欧洲中期天气预报中心第5代大气再分析数据和中国国家气象信息中心提供的逐时大风、降水观测资料,筛选了2017—2021年4—9月东北冷涡背景下9例雷暴大风型、9例强降水型以及8例混合型强对流天气过程,通过动态合成开展了分析研究。结果表明:(1)三类强天气过程相对于冷涡的时空分布差异明显:雷暴大风型过程,超过70%的雷暴大风出现在冷涡中心的西南部或南部;而混合型过程,超过70%的大风出现在冷涡中心的东南部或南部;混合型和强降水型过程中,短时强降水均主要出现在冷涡中心南部或东南部,但后者发生在冷涡东南部的比例更高;雷暴大风型和强降水型过程主要出现在东北冷涡的发展和成熟阶段,而混合型过程主要发生在东北冷涡的成熟阶段。(2)三类强天气过程的环流形势和环境条件差异显著。雷暴大风型过程多出现在5—6月,一般对应的东北冷涡更深厚,等温线更密集,大气环境偏干,存在气温垂直递减率大和强风垂直切变条件,雷暴大风多发生在冷涡南侧的锋区附近,对流层中、高层受干冷空气控制,叠加在低层比较浅薄的暖湿空气之上有利于大气层结条件不稳定的增强,降水粒子蒸发降温形成的下沉气流和地面冷池,叠加锋区辐合更有利于形成区域性地面强风;而强降水型过程多集中在7—8月,对应的东北冷涡强度较弱,等温线较稀疏,强降水一般出现在锋前靠近暖区一侧的强层结不稳定区域内,对应水汽充沛、整层暖湿的环境条件,中低层温差较小,风垂直切变较弱。混合型过程对应的月份和冷涡强度与强降水型过程更接近,水汽、高低层温差以及风垂直切变等环境条件介于上述两类过程之间,但下沉对流有效位能在三类过程中表现为最大。总体来看,相较于中国中、低海拔地区雷暴大风和短时强降水的环境特征而言,东北冷涡背景下的强天气过程对应更强的深层风垂直切变,具有更强的天气尺度动力强迫。

基于主客观环流分型的强降水数值预报MODE检验方法及其在2019年暖季东北地区的应用

本文构建了基于主客观环流分型的强降水数值预报空间检验(MODE)方法框架,并利用该框架对欧洲中期天气预报中心全球模式(ECMWF)和中国气象局区域中尺度数值天气预报模式(CMA_MESO)的2019年暖季东北地区强降水预报进行检验。结果表明,2019年暖季东北地区54个强降水日的环流型可分为:西风槽型(15个)、副热带高压影响型(13个)、急流型(5个)、西部(12个)和东部冷涡型(9个)。其中,西风槽型和急流型以区域性强降水为主,模式对其强降水发生与否的预报能力强,TS评分较高;西部、东部冷涡型强降水的局地性强,模式对其强降水发生与否的预报能力差,TS评分低;副热带高压影响型也以区域性强降水为主,模式对其强降水发生与否的预报能力也比较强,但是对其强降水质心位置、强度、面积等属性预报偏差较大,TS评分也相对较低。另外,从两种模式预报性能对比看,CMA_MESO强降水强度和面积预报较实况普遍偏强,虽然其预报的TS评分一般高于ECMWF,但其对强降水预报的空报率也都比ECMWF大,对强降水的属性预报偏差一致性一般也低于ECMWF,其预报的可订正性整体上不及ECMWF。

1961—2021年黑龙江省春播期东北冷涡气候影响特征

选用1961—2021年黑龙江省62站逐日地面降水、气温资料及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,统计分析黑龙江省春播期间持续时间3 d及以上的东北冷涡活动特征及其对春播期气候要素的影响。结果表明:61 a春播期发生东北冷涡过程233次,共958 d,发生频次及日数均为增大趋势,发生频次与单次冷涡持续时间为显著负相关。东北冷涡的降水贡献率约为43.29%,冷涡过程中出现大雨及暴雨日的频率较大,分别为48.66%和59.46%;东北冷涡对春播期气温影响不显著。500 hPa位势高度场,东北冷涡与贝加尔湖至鄂霍茨克海阻塞高压存在较好的正相关,超30%的冷涡活动与鄂霍茨克海阻塞高压相伴发生。鄂霍茨克海阻塞高压对冷涡降水有显著的增强作用,而对冷涡过程低温的影响不显著。

长白山麓东北冷涡天气系统降水云系特征

利用2020年中国气象局吉林云物理野外科学试验基地微波辐射计数据,结合小时降水量数据、ERA5(ECMWF reanalysis version 5)再分析数据等对长白山麓东北冷涡降水云系进行统计分析,将东北冷涡降水划分为强降水、中等强度降水和弱降水3类。结果表明:在长白山麓东北冷涡降水发生前6 h首先出现中高云,水汽、云液态水含量对东北冷涡强降水的发生与维持至关重要。东北冷涡强降水发生前5 h,6 km高度以下水汽出现跃升,1.0 km高度以下水汽密度增加至12~14 g·m^(-3);5~6 km高度温度层结为-5℃至-10℃,云液态水含量为1.0~1.6 g·m^(-3),有助于冰雪晶的形成;在温度层结-6℃至-16℃内存在中高云,云底高度从5.5~7 km陡降至地面,出现干冷空气侵入现象,相对湿度急剧下降,这些特征一直持续至强降水发生;在东北冷涡中等强度降水和弱降水发生前6 h,云系为中云,5~6 km高度的云液态水含量为0.4~0.8 g·m^(-3),但并未出现水汽跃升、相对湿度下降的特征。

Analysis on Causes for "Late Spring Coldness" in Dalian in 2008

The NCEP data were applied to analyze causes of 'late spring coldness' occurring twice in Dalian in late April and mid May of 2008.The results showed that the 500 hPa Baikal ridge of high pressure maintained or strengthened in a stable manner.The delivery of accumulated cold air toward southeast was along the northwest airstream before the ridge.Therefore,the ridge of high pressure over Lake Baikal provided access for the cold air southward so that the cold air could continue to decline,resulting in the appearance of low temperature in late April and formation of 'late spring coldness'.The Northeast cold vortex(NECV) occurred frequently in mid May.There was a high possibility for low temperature and pluvial damages over Dalian.Thus the phenomenon of 'late spring coldness' appeared again.

Influence of the Northeast Cold Vortex on Flooding in Northeast China in Summer 2013

Severe flooding occurred in Northeast China（NEC） in summer 2013. Compared with the rainfall climatology of the region, the rainy season began earlier in 2013 and two main rainy periods occurred from late June to early July and from mid July to early August, respectively. During the summer season of 2013, the western Pacific subtropical high（WPSH） was located farther westward, which strengthened the southerly winds on its west side in the lower troposphere. Under this circulation pattern, more water vapor was transported to North China and NEC. Another moisture transport pathway to NEC was traced to the cross-equatorial flow over the Bay of Bengal. In mid–high latitudes in summer 2013, the Northeast Cold Vortex（NECV） was much stronger and remained stable over NEC. Thus, the cold air flow from its northwest side frequently met with the warm and wet air from the south to form stronger moisture convergence at lower levels in the troposphere, resulting in increased precipitation over the region. Correlation analysis indicated that the NECV played a more direct role than the WPSH. Synoptic analyses of the two heaviest flood cases on 2 and 16 July confirmed this conclusion. The four wettest summers in NEC before 2000 were also analyzed and the results were consistent with the conclusion that both the WPSH and the NECV led to the intense rainfall in NEC, but the NECV had a more direct role.

Simulation of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange process in a typical cold vortex over Northeast China

A mesoscale weather research and forecasting(WRF)model was used to simulate a cold vortex that developed over Northeast China during June 19–23,2010.The simulation used high vertical resolution to reproduce the key features of the cold vortex development.Characteristics of the associated stratosphere-troposphere exchange(STE),specifically the spatiotemporal distribution of the cross-tropopause mass flux(CTF),were investigated using the Wei formula.The simulation results showed that the net mass exchange induced by the cold vortex was controlled by stratosphere-to-troposphere transport(STT)processes.In the pre-formation stage of the cold vortex(i.e.,the development of the trough and ridge),active exchange was evident.Over the lifecycle of the cold vortex,STT processes prevailed at the rear of the trough and moving vortex,whereas troposphere-to-stratosphere transport(TST)processes prevailed at the front end.This spatial pattern was caused by temporal fluctuations of the tropopause.However,because of the cancellation of the upward flux by the downward flux,the contribution of the tropopause fluctuation term to the net mass exchange was only minor.In this case,horizontal motion dominated the net mass exchange.The time evolution of the CTF exhibited three characteristics:(1)the predominance of the STT during the pre-formation stage;(2)the formation and development of the cold vortex,in which the CTF varied in a fluctuating pattern from TST to STT to TST;and(3)the prevalence of the STT during the decay stage.