Arctic warming played a dominant role in recent occurrences of extreme events over the Northern Hemisphere,but climate models cannot accurately simulate the relationship.Here a significant positive correlation(0.33-0....Arctic warming played a dominant role in recent occurrences of extreme events over the Northern Hemisphere,but climate models cannot accurately simulate the relationship.Here a significant positive correlation(0.33-0.95)between extreme precipitation and Arctic amplification(AA)is found using observations and CMIP5/6 multi-model ensembles.However,CMIP6 models are superior to CMIP5 models in simulating the temporal evolution of extreme precipitation and AA.According to 14 optimal CMIP6 models,the maximum latitude of planetary waves and the strength of Northern Hemisphere annular mode(NAM)will increase with increasing AA,contributing to increased extreme precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere.Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5,AA is expected to increase by 0.85℃ per decade while the maximum latitude of planetary waves will increase by 2.82°per decade.Additionally,the amplitude of the NAM will increase by 0.21 hPa per decade,contributing to a rise in extreme precipitation of 1.17% per decade for R95pTOT and 0.86% per decade for R99pTOT by 2100.展开更多
Large-scale ocean‒atmosphere circulations(LOACs)have a pronounced effect on the near-surface wind speed(NSWS).In this study,we discussed the contributions of zonal and meridional flows to NSWS changes and identify the...Large-scale ocean‒atmosphere circulations(LOACs)have a pronounced effect on the near-surface wind speed(NSWS).In this study,we discussed the contributions of zonal and meridional flows to NSWS changes and identify the possible association between the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode(NAM)and the NSWS changes over eastern China from 1979 to 2017.Results show that the reduction in NSWS over eastern China was mainly dominated by the weakening of the zonal wind component.NAM has a considerable effect on the NSWS over eastern China.When the NAM exhibits positive phases,the zonal-mean westerly weakens at low-to-mid-latitudes(10°-40°N).Meanwhile,descending flows prevail near 40°N,and ascending flows persist near 65°N in the troposphere.In the lower troposphere,there are northerly anomalies at low-to-mid-latitudes and southerly anomalies at mid-to-high latitudes(40°-70°N).The anomalous meridional flows transport heat from low to high latitudes and weaken the north‒south air temperature gradient.The decreased air temperature gradient over East Asia reduces the pressure gradient near the surface,decreasing NSWS in eastern China.NAM variations could dominate(32.0±15.8)%of the changes in the annual mean NSWS.Nevertheless,the contribution of NAM to the interannual changes of the zonal component in NSWS could reach(45.0±12.9)%.展开更多
We analyze the decadal variation of the stratosphere troposphere coupled system around the year 2000 by using the NCEP reanalysis-2 data.Specifically,the relationship between the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode（NAM...We analyze the decadal variation of the stratosphere troposphere coupled system around the year 2000 by using the NCEP reanalysis-2 data.Specifically,the relationship between the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode（NAM） and the tropospheric East Asian trough is investigated in order to find the effective stratospheric signals during cold air outbreaks in China.Statistical analyses and dynamic diagnoses both indicate that after 2000,increased stratospheric polar vortex disturbances occur and the NAM is mainly in negative phase.The tropospheric polar areas are directly affected by the polar vortex,and in the midlatitudes,the Ural blocking high and East Asian trough are more active,which lead to enhanced cold air activities in eastern and northern China.Further investigation reveals that under this circulation pattern,downward propagations of negative NAM index are closely related to the intensity variation of the East Asian trough.When negative NAM anomalies propagate down to the upper troposphere and reach a certain intensity（standardized NAM index less than 1）,they result in apparent reinforcement of the East Asian trough,which reaches its maximum intensity about one week later.The northerly wind behind the trough transports cold air southward and eastward,and the range of influence and the intensity are closely associated with the trough location.Therefore,the NAM index can be used as a measure of the signals from the disturbed stratosphere to give some indication of cold air activities in China.展开更多
The Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode(NAM) represents the zonally symmetric planetary-scale atmospheric mass fluctuations between middle and high latitudes, whose variations have shown a large impact on other component...The Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode(NAM) represents the zonally symmetric planetary-scale atmospheric mass fluctuations between middle and high latitudes, whose variations have shown a large impact on other components of the climate system. Previous studies have indicated that the NAM is correlated with the Ferrel cell in their monthly or longer timescale variability.However, there have been few studies investigating their connections at daily timescale, though daily variability of NAM has been suggested to be an important component and has significant implication for weather forecast. The results from this study demonstrate that variability of the Ferrel cell leads that of the NAM by about 1–2 days. This statistically identified temporal phase difference between NAM and Ferrel cell variability can be elucidated by meridional mass redistribution. Intensified(weakened)Ferrel cell causes anomalously smaller(larger) poleward mass transport from the middle to the high latitudes,resulting in an increase(a decrease) in mass in the middle latitudes and a decrease(an increase) in the high latitudes.As a consequence, anomalously higher(lower) poleward pressure gradient forms and the NAM subsequently shifts to a positive(negative) phase at a time lag of 1–2 days. The findings here would augment the existing knowledge for better understanding the connection between the Ferrel Cell and the NAM, and may provide skillful information for improving NAM as well as daily scale weather prediction.展开更多
As leading modes of the planetary-scale atmospheric circulation in the extratropics, the Northern Hemisphere(NH)annular mode(NAM) and Southern Hemisphere(SH) annular mode(SAM) are important components of global circul...As leading modes of the planetary-scale atmospheric circulation in the extratropics, the Northern Hemisphere(NH)annular mode(NAM) and Southern Hemisphere(SH) annular mode(SAM) are important components of global circulation, and their variabilities substantially impact the climate in mid-high latitudes. A 35-yr(1979-2013) simulation by the climate system model developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM) was carried out based on observed sea surface temperature and sea ice data. The ability of CAMS-CSM in simulating horizontal and vertical structures of the NAM and SAM, relation of the NAM to the East Asian climate, and temporal variability of the SAM is examined and validated against the observational data. The results show that CAMS-CSM captures the zonally symmetric and out-of-phase variations of sea level pressure anomaly between the midlatitudes and polar zones in the extratropics of the NH and SH. The model has also captured the equivalent barotropic structure in tropospheric geopotential height and the meridional shifts of the NH and SH jet systems associated with the NAM and SAM anomalies. Furthermore, the model is able to reflect the variability of northern and southern Ferrel cells corresponding to the NAM and SAM anomalies. The model reproduces the observed relationship of the boreal winter NAM with the East Asian trough and air temperature over East Asia. It also captures the upward trend of the austral summer SAM index during recent decades. However, compared with the observation, the model shows biases in both the intensity and center locations of the NAM's and SAM's horizontal and vertical structures. Specifically, it overestimates their intensities.展开更多
The Southern Hemisphere （SH） annular mode （SAM） is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the SH extratropics. The SAM regulates climate in many regions due to its large spatial scale. Exploration of the ...The Southern Hemisphere （SH） annular mode （SAM） is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the SH extratropics. The SAM regulates climate in many regions due to its large spatial scale. Exploration of the climatic impacts of the SAM is a new research field that has developed rapidly in recent years. This paper reviews studies of the climatic impact of the SAM on the SH and the Northern Hemisphere （NH）, emphasizing linkages between the SAM and climate in China. Studies relating the SAM to climate change are also discussed. A general survey of these studies have been systematically investigated. On interannual shows that signals of the SAM in the SH climate scales, the SAM can influence the position of storm tracks and the vertical circulation, and modulate the dynamic and thermodynamic driving effects of the surface wind on the underlying surface, thus influencing the SH air-sea-ice coupled system. These influences generally show zonally symmetrical characteristics, but with local features. On climate change scales, the impacts of the SAM on SH climate change show a similar spatial distribution to those on interannual scales. There are also meaningful results on the relationship between the SAM and the NH climate. The SAM is known to affect the East Asian, West African, and North American summer monsoons, as well as the winter monsoon in China. Air-sea interaction plays an important role in these connections in terms of the storage of the SAM signal and its propagation from the SH to the NH. However, compared with the considerable knowledge of the impact of the SAM on the SH climate, the response of the NH climate to the SAM deserves further study, including both a deep understanding of the propagation mechanism of the SAM signal from the SH to the NH and the establishment of a seasonal prediction model based on the SAM.展开更多
基金This work was supported by the National Science Fund for Distinguished Young Scholars(42025102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975157)+1 种基金the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(2021M701522)Gansu Provincial Natural Science Foundation(21ZDKA0017).
文摘Arctic warming played a dominant role in recent occurrences of extreme events over the Northern Hemisphere,but climate models cannot accurately simulate the relationship.Here a significant positive correlation(0.33-0.95)between extreme precipitation and Arctic amplification(AA)is found using observations and CMIP5/6 multi-model ensembles.However,CMIP6 models are superior to CMIP5 models in simulating the temporal evolution of extreme precipitation and AA.According to 14 optimal CMIP6 models,the maximum latitude of planetary waves and the strength of Northern Hemisphere annular mode(NAM)will increase with increasing AA,contributing to increased extreme precipitation over the Northern Hemisphere.Under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP5-8.5,AA is expected to increase by 0.85℃ per decade while the maximum latitude of planetary waves will increase by 2.82°per decade.Additionally,the amplitude of the NAM will increase by 0.21 hPa per decade,contributing to a rise in extreme precipitation of 1.17% per decade for R95pTOT and 0.86% per decade for R99pTOT by 2100.
基金National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0606004)Natural Science Foundation of China(42005023,41875178,41865001)+1 种基金Swedish Formas(2019-00509 and 2017-01408)VR(2021-02163 and 2019-03954).
文摘Large-scale ocean‒atmosphere circulations(LOACs)have a pronounced effect on the near-surface wind speed(NSWS).In this study,we discussed the contributions of zonal and meridional flows to NSWS changes and identify the possible association between the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode(NAM)and the NSWS changes over eastern China from 1979 to 2017.Results show that the reduction in NSWS over eastern China was mainly dominated by the weakening of the zonal wind component.NAM has a considerable effect on the NSWS over eastern China.When the NAM exhibits positive phases,the zonal-mean westerly weakens at low-to-mid-latitudes(10°-40°N).Meanwhile,descending flows prevail near 40°N,and ascending flows persist near 65°N in the troposphere.In the lower troposphere,there are northerly anomalies at low-to-mid-latitudes and southerly anomalies at mid-to-high latitudes(40°-70°N).The anomalous meridional flows transport heat from low to high latitudes and weaken the north‒south air temperature gradient.The decreased air temperature gradient over East Asia reduces the pressure gradient near the surface,decreasing NSWS in eastern China.NAM variations could dominate(32.0±15.8)%of the changes in the annual mean NSWS.Nevertheless,the contribution of NAM to the interannual changes of the zonal component in NSWS could reach(45.0±12.9)%.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41275078 and 41205041)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFA0600701)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201306026)
文摘We analyze the decadal variation of the stratosphere troposphere coupled system around the year 2000 by using the NCEP reanalysis-2 data.Specifically,the relationship between the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode（NAM） and the tropospheric East Asian trough is investigated in order to find the effective stratospheric signals during cold air outbreaks in China.Statistical analyses and dynamic diagnoses both indicate that after 2000,increased stratospheric polar vortex disturbances occur and the NAM is mainly in negative phase.The tropospheric polar areas are directly affected by the polar vortex,and in the midlatitudes,the Ural blocking high and East Asian trough are more active,which lead to enhanced cold air activities in eastern and northern China.Further investigation reveals that under this circulation pattern,downward propagations of negative NAM index are closely related to the intensity variation of the East Asian trough.When negative NAM anomalies propagate down to the upper troposphere and reach a certain intensity（standardized NAM index less than 1）,they result in apparent reinforcement of the East Asian trough,which reaches its maximum intensity about one week later.The northerly wind behind the trough transports cold air southward and eastward,and the range of influence and the intensity are closely associated with the trough location.Therefore,the NAM index can be used as a measure of the signals from the disturbed stratosphere to give some indication of cold air activities in China.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40905040 and 41030961)the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB950400)the R&D Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry of China (meteorology) (GYHY201306031)
文摘The Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode(NAM) represents the zonally symmetric planetary-scale atmospheric mass fluctuations between middle and high latitudes, whose variations have shown a large impact on other components of the climate system. Previous studies have indicated that the NAM is correlated with the Ferrel cell in their monthly or longer timescale variability.However, there have been few studies investigating their connections at daily timescale, though daily variability of NAM has been suggested to be an important component and has significant implication for weather forecast. The results from this study demonstrate that variability of the Ferrel cell leads that of the NAM by about 1–2 days. This statistically identified temporal phase difference between NAM and Ferrel cell variability can be elucidated by meridional mass redistribution. Intensified(weakened)Ferrel cell causes anomalously smaller(larger) poleward mass transport from the middle to the high latitudes,resulting in an increase(a decrease) in mass in the middle latitudes and a decrease(an increase) in the high latitudes.As a consequence, anomalously higher(lower) poleward pressure gradient forms and the NAM subsequently shifts to a positive(negative) phase at a time lag of 1–2 days. The findings here would augment the existing knowledge for better understanding the connection between the Ferrel Cell and the NAM, and may provide skillful information for improving NAM as well as daily scale weather prediction.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41775084 and 41405102)National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFC1505706)Basic Research Special Project of Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2019Z008)
文摘As leading modes of the planetary-scale atmospheric circulation in the extratropics, the Northern Hemisphere(NH)annular mode(NAM) and Southern Hemisphere(SH) annular mode(SAM) are important components of global circulation, and their variabilities substantially impact the climate in mid-high latitudes. A 35-yr(1979-2013) simulation by the climate system model developed at the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(CAMS-CSM) was carried out based on observed sea surface temperature and sea ice data. The ability of CAMS-CSM in simulating horizontal and vertical structures of the NAM and SAM, relation of the NAM to the East Asian climate, and temporal variability of the SAM is examined and validated against the observational data. The results show that CAMS-CSM captures the zonally symmetric and out-of-phase variations of sea level pressure anomaly between the midlatitudes and polar zones in the extratropics of the NH and SH. The model has also captured the equivalent barotropic structure in tropospheric geopotential height and the meridional shifts of the NH and SH jet systems associated with the NAM and SAM anomalies. Furthermore, the model is able to reflect the variability of northern and southern Ferrel cells corresponding to the NAM and SAM anomalies. The model reproduces the observed relationship of the boreal winter NAM with the East Asian trough and air temperature over East Asia. It also captures the upward trend of the austral summer SAM index during recent decades. However, compared with the observation, the model shows biases in both the intensity and center locations of the NAM's and SAM's horizontal and vertical structures. Specifically, it overestimates their intensities.
基金Supported by the National Basic Research and Development(973)Program of China(2013CB430200)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41030961)China Meteorological Administration Special Public Welfare Research Fund(GYHY201306031)
文摘The Southern Hemisphere （SH） annular mode （SAM） is the dominant mode of atmospheric circulation in the SH extratropics. The SAM regulates climate in many regions due to its large spatial scale. Exploration of the climatic impacts of the SAM is a new research field that has developed rapidly in recent years. This paper reviews studies of the climatic impact of the SAM on the SH and the Northern Hemisphere （NH）, emphasizing linkages between the SAM and climate in China. Studies relating the SAM to climate change are also discussed. A general survey of these studies have been systematically investigated. On interannual shows that signals of the SAM in the SH climate scales, the SAM can influence the position of storm tracks and the vertical circulation, and modulate the dynamic and thermodynamic driving effects of the surface wind on the underlying surface, thus influencing the SH air-sea-ice coupled system. These influences generally show zonally symmetrical characteristics, but with local features. On climate change scales, the impacts of the SAM on SH climate change show a similar spatial distribution to those on interannual scales. There are also meaningful results on the relationship between the SAM and the NH climate. The SAM is known to affect the East Asian, West African, and North American summer monsoons, as well as the winter monsoon in China. Air-sea interaction plays an important role in these connections in terms of the storage of the SAM signal and its propagation from the SH to the NH. However, compared with the considerable knowledge of the impact of the SAM on the SH climate, the response of the NH climate to the SAM deserves further study, including both a deep understanding of the propagation mechanism of the SAM signal from the SH to the NH and the establishment of a seasonal prediction model based on the SAM.
