From mandatory icebreaker guiding to a permission regime: changes to the new Russian legislation of the Northern Sea Route

This article focuses on two issues. The first concerns definitions of the Northern Sea Route （NSR） in old and new Russian legislation, and the second relates to Russian rules on icebreaker guiding. Based on a comprehensive comparative analysis of relevant Russian legal provisions enacted in 2013 and previous laws in this area, we offer the following conclusions. （1） Our legal analysis indicates that Russia＇s view of the NSR as a historical national transportation route has not changed. However, the new law redefines the scope and coverage of the NSR, which now comprises the internal waters, territorial sea, adjacent zone, and the exclusive economic zone of the Russian Federation. In fact, the new law resolves previous ambiguity regarding extension of the NSR boundary to the high seas. （2） Based on an analysis of the new rules on icebreaker guiding, the article concludes that NSR is transitioning from a mandatory icebreaker guiding regime into a permit regime. This is particularly evident in its provision of a concrete, practical, and predictable clause on permissible or impermissible conditions relating to independent navigation. According to the new rules, it is possible for foreign ships to undertake independent navigation in the NSR. The Russian NSR policy, therefore, appears to have changed significantly, and has future potential for opening the NSR up to the international community.

Impacts of 1.5℃ global warming on hydrological conditions of navigation along the Northern Sea Route and Northwest Passage

Arctic navigability is crucial to the global economy and landscape,while there is an omission in understanding how Arctic navigability changes as a function of 1.5℃ of the Paris Agreement.This study investigated the impact of 1.5℃ global warming above the preindustrial level on sea ice conditions and accessibility of the Northern Sea Route(NSR)and Northwest Passage(NWP)with the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System and new risk demarcation criteria.The Arctic is colder on the Canadian side than on the European side under 1.5℃ warming.Sea ice is mostly less than three years old,and the younger,thinner and less concentrated ice is mainly in the seas along the NSR.Ships above Polar Class(PC)6 might be unimpeded along two passages all the year.Besides,the NSR and NWP have great potential for PC6 ships in October-December,while it is only the NSR for PC7 ships.Caution is still required when navigating the western East Siberian Sea,its surrounding straits,and the Parry Channel.These changes in hydrological conditions are important for global shipping,and this work is helpful for supporting coordinated international decision-making.

Ice Resistance Assessment for a Large Size Vessel Running in a Narrow Ice Channel Behind an Icebreaker

Large size vessels sailing in continuous level ice and broken ice of high concentration are mostly assisted by icebreakers.This is done in order to provide for fast transportation through the North Sea Route and safe operation in extreme ice conditions.Currently,new large size gas and oil carriers and container ships are being designed and built with beams much greater than the beams of existing icebreakers.At the same time,no mathematical description exists for the breaking mechanism of ice channel edges,when such vessels move under icebreaker escort.This paper suggests a simple method for assessment of the ice resistance in the case of a large ship running in an icebreaker channel;the method is based on modification of well-known semi-empirical methods for calculation of the ice resistance to ships in level and broken ice.The main feature of the proposed calculation scheme consists in that different methods are applied to estimate the ice resistance in broken ice and due to breaking of level ice edges.The combination of these methods gives a deliverable ice resistance of a large size vessel moving under icebreaker assistance in a newly made ice channel.In general,proposed method allows to define the speed of a carrier moving in an ice channel behind a modern linear icebreaker and could be applied at the ship design stage and during development of the marine transportation system.The paper also discusses the ways for further refinement of the assessment procedure suggested.

Navigability of the Northern Sea Route for Arc7 ice-class vessels during winter and spring sea-ice conditions

Sea ice hinders the navigability of the Arctic,especially in winter and spring.However,three Arc7 ice-class Liquefied Natural Gas carrying vessels safely transited the Northern Sea Route(NSR)without icebreaker assistance in January 2021.More and more Arc7 ice-class vessels are putting into the transit services in the NSR.Therefore,it is necessary to analyze sea-ice conditions and their impact on navigation during wintertime,and the future navigability of Arc7 ice-class vessels along the NSR during winter and spring.Based on sea ice datasets from satellite observations and a model using data assimilation,we explored the sea-ice conditions and their impact during the first three successful commercial voyages through the NSR in winter.In addition,we analyzed the sea ice variation and estimated navigability for Arc7 ice-class vessels in the NSR from January to June of the years 2021–2050 using future projections of the sea-ice cover by the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models under two emission scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5).The results reveal lower sea ice thickness and similar sea ice concentration during these three transits relative to the past 42 years(from 1979 to 2020).We found the thickness has a larger impact on the vessels’speeds than sea ice concentration.Very likely sea ice thickness played a larger role than the sea ice concentration for the successful transit of the NSR in winter 2021.Future projections suggest sea ice thickness will decrease further in most regions of the NSR from January to June under all scenarios enabling increased navigability of the NSR for Arc7 ice-class vessels.Such vessels could transit through the NSR from January to June under all scenarios by 2050,while some areas near the coast of East Siberian Sea remain inaccessible for Arc7 ice-class vessels in spring(April and May).These findings can support the strategic planning of shipping along the NSR in winter and spring.

Reviews and Expectations on the Maiden Voyage of a Chinese Merchant Ship in the Arctic Northeast Route

This paper introduces the preparatory work and conducts an integrated review on the maiden voyage of a Chinese commercial ship on the Arctic Northeast Route. It puts forth expectations on the exploitation and utilization of the Arctic Northeast Route in the aspects of safety, fastness, low costs, low consumption of energy and less pollution, knowledge of maritime law and navigation practice, building seaworthiness ships and making studies on the methods of sailing and maneuvering for navigation in polar waters, training qualified seafarers with navigation experiences in ice waters and establishing a safeguard system for the navigation in this route through the analysis on the weather, temperature, ice condition, route and hydrology encountered in the practice of a Chinese merchant ship in its maiden voyage in the route, and studies on the ice pilotage, convoy by icebreaker, practical condition of communication and navigation equipment in sea areas of high latitude and the economic benefit of the navigation in the Arctic Northeast Route.

China’s policies on Polar Silk Road and impacts on trade and energy use in Arctic region

China has recently established a new policy for the energy use of the Arctic region.Even though it is not a part of the Arctic Council,China has started a series of partnerships with public and private entities of countries that are geographically and politically members of the Arctic polar Circle.The project has to be carried out within the“Belt and Road Initiative”,by establishing new trade routes between China and the rest of the world.The study aims at assessing the fuel consumption for the Arctic shipping routes and comparing them to the traditional ones,in terms of cost reduction and time efficiency.Moreover,a brief consideration on oil&gas arctic fields has been carried out,in order to understand how the energy policy of China is changing the resource utilization.

Lessons and prospects of Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation

The strategic partnership between China and Russia is creating solid ground for the cooperative development of the Arctic. These two states＇ joint development of the Northern Sea Route will not only provide additional impulse to the export- oriented economy of China and allow further diversification of supply routes to China, but will also promote investment into the infrastructure and economic growth of Russian northern territories. Climate change in the Arctic has forced China and Russia to acknowledge the sustainable use of the Arctic. On the one hand, exploration of the region should not harm indigenous people＇s rights and should help this population improve their standard of living by providing qualified healthcare and opportunities for commercial fulfillment of traditional crafts. On the other hand, this exploration should also include elimination of harmful anthropogenic impact and provide support for environment self-restoration. Sino-Russian Arctic cooperation will help humans discover eco-friendly approaches to use Arctic resources, promote rational use of the Arctic and inspire sustainable development of the region.

An analysis on Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic in the BRI era

Over the past decade Sino-Russian cooperation in the Arctic has emerged as one of the major topics of the Russia-China negotiations on how to expand their comprehensive strategic partnership and to bring it to a new level. China considers the Arctic region important for its economic interests and desires to be included in the development of the region and its economic potential. For Russia, the Arctic is a future strategic resource base that would replace the old depleting fields and assure Russia’s status as a major worldwide energy supplier. Despite many joint statements on deepening of the Sino-Russian cooperation in the development of the Arctic energy resources, the concrete results of these ambitious plans are few. Some joint projects were dropped, as China and Russia could not agree on the conditions of the deal, others are progressing very slowly and have an uncertain future. In 2017, China has expanded its "Belt and Road Initiative"(BRI) to the Arctic thus elevating the Sino-Russian cooperation in the Artcic to a higher level. How did the relationship between Russia and China evolve in the Arctic and how do Russia and China view and respond to the new Arctic dimension of the BRI? What factors limit the strategic rapprochement between China and Russia in the Arctic?

Light from space illuminating the polar silk road

The rapid decline of Arctic sea ice has been reminding us the significant impacts caused by global warming.However,the other side of the coin is that this opens a window to utilize the Arctic sea routes in the summer seasons,bringing remarkable economic benefits for ocean transportation between Asia and Europe.However,commercial vessels with low ice classes must tackle substantial environmental challenges in the Arctic sea routes,particularly those caused by variable sea ice,even in the melting seasons.Therefore,the science-based support for shipping safety in the Arctic sea routes is being given more prominence.Emerging satellite remote sensing technology plays a critical role in environmental monitoring in the Arctic.This paper reviews state-of-the-art satellite observations on monitoring sea ice and potential applications on supporting shipping activities in the Arctic Ocean.Moreover,we introduced a recently developed system based on satellite observations to support the safe transportation of Chinese cargo vessels in the Arctic northern sea route,demonstrating the efforts by both the science and business communities to promote the development of the polar silk road.