Drought and flood characteristics in the farmingpastoral ecotone of northern China based on the Standardized Precipitation Index

The farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China(FPENC)provides an important ecological barrier which restrains the invasion of desert into Northwest China.Studying drought and flood characteristics in the FPENC can provide scientific support and practical basis for the protection of the FPENC.Based on monthly precipitation data from 115 meteorological stations,we determined the changes in climate and the temporal and spatial variations of drought and flood occurrence in the FPENC during 1960-2020 using the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI),Morlet wavelet transform,and inverse distance weighted interpolation method.Annual precipitation in the FPENC showed a slightly increasing trend from 1960 to 2020,with an increasing rate of about 1.15 mm/a.The interannual SPI exhibited obvious fluctuations,showing an overall non-significant upward trend(increasing rate of 0.02/a).Therefore,the study area showed a wetting trend in recent years.Drought and flood disasters mainly occurred on an interannual change cycle of 2-6 and 9-17 a,respectively.In the future,a tendency towards drought can be expected in the FPENC.The temporal and spatial distribution of drought and flood differed in the northwestern,northern,and northeastern segments of the FPENC,and most of the drought and flood disasters occurred in local areas.Severe and extreme drought disasters were concentrated in the northwestern and northeastern segments,and severe and extreme flood disasters were mainly in the northeastern segment.Drought was most frequent in the northwestern segment,the central part of the northeastern segment,and the northern part of the northern segment.Flood was most frequent in the western part of the northwestern segment,the eastern part of the northeastern segment,and the eastern and western parts of the northern segment.The accurate evaluation of the degrees of drought and flood disasters in the FPENC will provide scientific basis for the regional climate study and critical information on which to base decisions regarding environmental protection and socio-economic development in this region.

Strategies for Prioritizing Ecological Construction with Consideration of Agricultural Industry Development in Northern China’s Agro- pastoral Ecotone : A Perspective of Opportunity Cost

In northern China’s agro-pastoral ecotone,there are conflicts between agricultural industry and ecological construction resource competition,and also problems urgently to be solved for economic growth and sustainable ecological improvement.Taking the development concept of"lucid waters and lush mountains being mountains of gold and silver"as the guiding principle of prioritizing ecological and green development,this paper studied the strategies for prioritizing ecological construction with consideration of economic development of agricultural industry from the perspective of opportunity cost.Through the analysis of opportunity cost,externality,and Pareto optimal theory,and using the calculation method of the unit equivalent factor value of terrestrial ecological service function,this paper calculated the ecological service value of forest,grassland,and farmland.It found that the ecological value of forest and grassland per unit area was greater than the ecological value of agricultural industry.This indicates that the opportunity cost of farmland for ecological construction was less than that of agricultural industry.Based on the theoretical and quantitative analysis,it came up with recommendations for establishing a comprehensive system for prioritizing ecological construction with consideration of agricultural industry development and establishing and improving the incentive mechanism of ecological construction.

Adaptation to a Warming-Drying Trend Through Cropping System Adjustment over Three Decades:A Case Study in the Northern Agro-Pastural Ecotone of China

Long-term field monitoring data and historical crop data are useful to assess the impacts of climate change and to manage cropping systems. The objectives of this study are to understand the cropping system response to a warming-drying trend in the northern agro-pastural ecotone （NAE） of China and to document how farmers can adapt to the warming-drying trend by changing cropping system structure and adjusting planting date. The results indicate that a significant warming-drying trend existed in the NAE from 1980 to 2009, and this trend significantly decreased crop （spring wheat, naked oat, and potato） yields. Furthermore, the yield decreased by 16.2%-28.4% with a 1℃ increase in maximum temperature and decreased by 6.6%-11.8% with a 10% decrease in precipitation. Considering food security, water use efficiency, and water ecological adaptability in the semi-arid NAE, cropping system structure adjustment （e.g., a shift from wheat to potato as the predominant crop） and planting date adaptation （e.g., a delay in crop planting date） can offset the impact of the warming-drying trend in the NAE. Based on the successful offsetting of the impact of the warming-drying trend in the NAE, we conclude that farmers can reduce the negative effects of climate change and minimize the risk of crop failure by adapting their cropping system structure at the farming level.

Development of quantitative methods for detecting climate contributions to boundary shifts in farming-pastoral ecotone of northern China

The quantitative effect of climate change on fragile regions has been a hot topic in the field of responses to climate change. Previous studies have qualitatively documented the impacts of climate change on boundary shifts in the farming-pastoral ecotone （FPE）; however, the quantitative methods for detecting climate contributions remain relatively limited. Based on long-term data of meteorological stations and interpretations of land use since 1970, climate and land use boundaries of the 1970s, 1980s, 1990s and 2000s were delineated. To detect climate contributions to the FPE boundary shifts, we developed two quantitative methods to explore the spatial-temporal pattern of climate and land use boundary at the east-west （or south-north） （FishNet method） and transect directions （Digital Shoreline Analysis System, DSAS method）. The results indicated that significant differences were exhibited in climate boundaries, land use boundaries, as well as climate contributions in different regions during different periods. The northwest FPE had smaller variations, while the northeast FPE had greater shifts. In the northwest part of the southeast fringe of the Greater Hinggan Mountains and the Inner Mongolian Plateau, the shifts of climate boundaries were significantly related to the land use boundaries. The climate contributions at an east-west direction ranged from 10.7% to 44.4%, and those at a south-north direction varied from 4.7% to 55.9%. The majority of the results from the DSAS were consistent with those from the FishNet. The DSAS method is more accurate and suitable for precise detection at a small scale, whereas the FishNet method is simple to conduct statistical analysis rapidly and directly at a large scale. Our research will be helpful to adapt to climate change, to develop the productive potential, as well as to protect the environment of the FPE in northern China.

Impacts of regional land-use patterns on ecosystem services in the typical agro-pastoral ecotone of northern China

A comprehensive understanding of the spatial-temporal evolution and driving forces on ecosystem services(ES)is essential for the agro-pastoral ecotone’s ecological security in northern China.However,the land-use pattern(LULC)agglomeration with spatial differentiation in the pastoral and agricultural areas has been rarely concerned.Taking distinct LULC(1980-2018)in Chifeng as an example,we compared four crucial categories of ESs with InVEST.Using SEM,we further contrasted the effects of several variables on regional ES variations in pastoral-dominated(North)and agriculture-dominated(South)regions,respectively.Results revealed the conversion between forest and grassland oriented the LULC transformation in the North.In contrast,human-activitiy-oriented land tended to occupy environmentally sensitive places in the South.Similar ES variations were supplied with the North outperforming the South when soil conservation was omitted.As for the impacts of regional ES variations,the natural and LULC policies both showed positive effects,whereas the anthropogenic factors showed positive in the North,which was negative in the South.Therefore,the ecologicallymaintained-dominant and ecologically-restored-dominant strategies should be separately adopted in the North and South.Our study provided appropriate regional ecological management suggestions for balancing the LULC-driven conflicts between ecological protection and regional development.

Canopy structure:An intermediate factor regulating grassland diversity-function relationships under human disturbances

Grasslands are one of the largest coupled human-nature terrestrial ecosystems on Earth,and severe anthropogenic-induced grassland ecosystem function declines have been reported recently.Understanding factors influencing grassland ecosystem functions is critical for making sustainable management policies.Canopy structure is an important factor influencing plant growth through mediating within-canopy microclimate(e.g.,light,water,and wind),and it is found coordinating tightly with plant species diversity to influence forest ecosystem functions.However,the role of canopy structure in regulating grassland ecosystem functions along with plant species diversity has been rarely investigated.Here,we investigated this problem by collecting field data from 170 field plots distributed along an over 2000 km transect across the northern agro-pastoral ecotone of China.Aboveground net primary productivity(ANPP)and resilience,two indicators of grassland ecosystem functions,were measured from field data and satellite remote sensing data.Terrestrial laser scanning data were collected to measure canopy structure(represented by mean height and canopy cover).Our results showed that plant species diversity was positively correlated to canopy structural traits,and negatively correlated to human activity intensity.Canopy structure was a significant indicator for ANPP and resilience,but their correlations were inconsistent under different human activity intensity levels.Compared to plant species diversity,canopy structural traits were better indicators for grassland ecosystem functions,especially for ANPP.Through structure equation modeling analyses,we found that plant species diversity did not have a direct influence on ANPP under human disturbances.Instead,it had a strong indirect effect on ANPP by altering canopy structural traits.As to resilience,plant species diversity had both a direct positive contribution and an indirect contribution through mediating canopy cover.This study highlights that canopy structure is an important intermediate factor regulating grassland diversity-function relationships under human disturbances,which should be included in future grassland monitoring and management.