Trump Administration's North Korea Policy Logic and DPRK Nuclear Issue Prospects

The North Korea nuclear challenge,urgent on the US foreign policy agenda since Donald Trump took office,has prompted unilateral,bilateral and multilateral moves to address rising tension on the peninsula.The underlying logic of US policy,which in November placed the DPRK back on the list of state sponsors of terrorism,promotes negotiation by imposing Maximum Pressure and by enlisting China's support.Possibly,North Korea will return to negotiations with its nuclear and missile development suspended temporarily.Other possibilities are a stalemate with North Korea joining the ranks of countries with credible nuclear deterrent,or an emerging crisis that escalates to military or other conflict.The lingering uncertainty is central to northeast Asia security.

The Prospect of Korean Nuclear Issue:Several Focal Points

For over two decades the international community has been perplexed by the Korean nuclear issue.A clear-eye is needed to see that“no”is the realistic answer to these questions:Will the DPRK give up nuclear capability completely?Will the US resolve the issue with force?Can the DPRK collapse under maximum pressure?On the other hand,what could happen if Six-Party Talks resumed and the international community would“acquiesce”in a nuclear DPRK?Arguing the slippery slope that others in Northeast Asia will become nuclear is delusional:Japan and the ROK are unlikely to join the nuclear arms race.The most plausible next step is that the DPRK holds on to its hard-won nuclear capability,the international community acquiesces,and Six-Party Talks resume.It is an opportunity for China to play a leading role in resolving the nuclear issue and advancing Northeast Asian diplomacy.

EU＇s Policy on Iran Nuclear Issue and Its Impact on China

The EU has always played an important role in solving Iran nuclear issue, and has different policies in different periods of the issue. During the initial period, the EU proposed that the issue be solved in the framework of the International Atomic Energy Agency （IAEA）, with EU itself playing the role of an active mediator between the US and Iran. When the mediation failed, the EU strongly advocated referring the Iran nuclear issue to the United Nations Security Council （UNSC） for discussion, and due to Iran＇s refusing the demands and promoting its nuclear capability continually, actively pushed forward sanctions against Iran by the UNSC, and began to launch its unilateral sanctions in 2010. Later on, EU sanctions became increasingly severe and reached their highest level in severity in 2012. EU＇s unilateral economic sanctions were one of the main factors that helped to bring about the interim deal on Iran nuclear issue reached on November 24, 2013. EU had seriously practiced the interim Iran nuclear deal and for several times frozen its sanction against Iran, which created good conditions for the comprehensive Iran nuclear deal reached in July 14, 2015. The goals of the EU＇s policy toward Iran nuclear issue changed constantly, which was mainly shown by changes in EU＇s perception of Iran＇s nuclear rights. EU＇s policy on Iran nuclear issue has had some impact on China which on the whole is mainly reflected by the fact that the policy of the EU aggravates the discords overt or covert between EU and China over international norms.

A Study of Post-Cold War German Policy Towards the Iranian Nuclear Issue

Germany has been an important participant in the resolution ofthe Iranian nuclear issue, and the evolution of the Iranian nuclearcrisis has become a major event in the international communityat the beginning of the 21st century. The U.S. pursued unilateralismand hegemony, advocating unilateral sanctions and coercivemeans to solve the problem, while the EU, led by Germany,adhered to multilateralism and advocated a peaceful solutionthrough negotiations and other means. After Merkel came topower, she promptly adjusted her policy towards the U.S., madethe U.S. accept the EU proposal, shaped Germany into a role thatis bold to challenge and take responsibility in the face of crises,pushed the UN Security Council to reach multilateral sanctionsand comprehensive EU sanctions against Iran, and finally reachedthe Iran nuclear deal. This journey fully demonstrates Germany’spursuit of foreign policy autonomy in the post-Cold War era, balancingthe two pillars of foreign policy towards Europe and theU.S. in pursuit of its own interests.

Analysis on Obama Administration’s Policy Adjustment of Iranian Nuclear Issue

From the realistic dilemma of US policy on the Iranian nuclear issue and the international debate concerning the policy, we can see that Obama administration is restructuring the Iranian nuclear policy:objectives have a reasoning downward modulation which is possible for the US to approve Iranian limited and supervised nuclear fuel production;some policy instruments will be further strengthened, while others may be more flexible;the US strategically abnegates the idea of overthrowing the Iranian regime and mainly focuses on the nuclear issue to achieve the separation of political power and the nuclear issue;a greater tolerance is demonstrated in building a multilateral mechanism. The Iranian nuclear issue is expected to shift from the current impasse to the stage of substantive negotiations.

Sino-Iranian Asymmetrical Interdependence in Light of the Iran Nuclear Issue

This article studies how the asymmetrically interdependent Sino-Iranian relationship evolved in light of two major events that both introduced a new phase of the Iran Nuclear Issue:the implementation of the US,EU and UN sanctions on Iran(2010),and the implementation of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action(2016).Specifically,it answers the research question:How did the asymmetrically interdependent relationship between Iran and China developed during the three phases of the Iran Nuclear Issue:the pre-sanctions period(2004–2010),the sanctions period(2010 to January 2016),and the period after the implementation of the JCPOA(2016 and 2017)?It provides Keohane and Nye’s definition of asymmetrical interdependence,and uses this definition of asymmetrical interdependence as an analytical tool to select three major areas of connectivity in the Sino-Iranian relationship.These are[1]Commercial Ties,consisting of[1a]Energy Ties,[1b];Military Cooperation(i.e.,arms trade),and,[1c]EU-Iranian Trade as a percentage of Sino-Iranian trade,[2]Technological Comparative Advantage,Assistance,and Cooperation consisting of[2a]Infrastructure,and[2b]Technology,and[3]Additional Strategic Value,which consists of subsections[3a]Additional Strategic Assets,and[3b]Ideological Value.By means of analysis of these categories,this article concludes that,overall,in the period after the 2010 United States,European Union and United Nations Security Council sanctions on Iran came into effect(2011–2015),Iran was more asymmetrically dependent on China than it had been before this event(2004–2010).Nevertheless,this surplus of asymmetrical dependence on China has decreased significantly because of the implementation of the JCPOA(2016–2017).

Mosque and Its Impact on the Khomeini Revolution:The Iranian Nuclear Issue Revisited

This article probes the Islamic Revolution of Iran from Khomeini’s ideas on the mosque,including his perception,adherence and upholding of Islam,so as to disclose the relevance of the mosque’s channel and Iran’s domestic and foreign policy,and then highlights the impact of the spiritual leader in Iran.Particularly,the international community should address the Four Kinds of Discourse that formed during the Iranian nuclear issue,which have hindered the communication and dialogue.Therefore,the international community must expand the space and means to take effective countermeasures to create an atmosphere of communication and dialogue,and then strive to resolve the issue.

Fruitless Nuclear Talks Both Iran and the United States choose to play hardball on the nuclear issue

The most recent negotiations on the Iranian nuclear issue ended without agreement on January 22 in Istanbul. Iran was on one side of the negotiating

Can the United States and the DPRK Achieve Normalization in the Case of Trump Phenomenon？

The relation between the United States and the Democratic People＇s Republic of Korea （DPRK） is of substantial strategic prominence in the security landscape of Northeast Asia. The longstanding incompatibility between the two countries can be illuminated by drawing on three factors： the conflict of interest in the DPRK-ROK unification; the strategic interests of the nuclearization and the denuclearization-normalization dilemma; the Sino-U.S. dual power structure in Northeast Asia. In addressing these issues, this paper discusses the possibility of achieving diplomatic normalization between the U.S. and DPRK by examining in a comparative framework the feasibility of existing mechanisms. The paper concludes that unconventional mechanism is required to establish the initial momentum for a necessary political breakthrough, especially in light of the Trump phenomenon. Specifically, the author proposes a stepwise model to assist the diplomatic reconciliation and to further promote the restoration of peace, security and stability in Northeast Asia.

The New Development of China-Middle East Relations since the Arab Upheaval

Since the upheaval,the Middle East region has been suffering from persisting conflicts and rising tension.China is facing a changing situation in the Middle East,along with increasingly mutual strategic reliance between China and the Middle East countries:on the one hand,the presence of Chinese interests in the Middle East is continuing to expand;on the other hand,since the 9/11,Middle Eastern countries have been generally in discord with the United States.As a result,Israel,Saudi Arabia and other countries are becoming increasingly willing to enhance relations with China,and significantly level up their expectation towards China accordingly.Within this context,China has actively promoted relations with Middle Eastern countries,with an image of a responsible,positive,and fair-minded actor in Middle East affairs.Accordingly,China’s interaction with the Middle East countries has stepped into a new stage.