Out of concern over nuclear weapons proliferation,the worry over DPRK nuclear testing is overwrought.The author sees the situation from the viewpoint of a geopolitical game in a non-proliferation mask.To attempt a geo...Out of concern over nuclear weapons proliferation,the worry over DPRK nuclear testing is overwrought.The author sees the situation from the viewpoint of a geopolitical game in a non-proliferation mask.To attempt a geopolitical game using non-proliferation is wrongly directed,but this is the main reason the issue fluctuates and deadlocks occasionally.To solve the situation once and for all,the international community needs to recognize its geopolitical nature and cure the problem accordingly.Since DPRK leader Kim Jong-Un crossed the border April 27 to meet South Korean President Moon Jae-in,the destiny of the Korean Peninsula is,as it should be,in the hands of the Koreans,not Chinese or Americans.展开更多
We introduce novel methods to determine optimum detection thresholds for the Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation (PMCC) algorithm used by the International Data Centre (IDC) to perform infrasound and seismic station...We introduce novel methods to determine optimum detection thresholds for the Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation (PMCC) algorithm used by the International Data Centre (IDC) to perform infrasound and seismic station-level nuclear-event detection. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis is used with real ground truth data to determine the trade-off between the probability of detection (PD) and the false alarm rate (FAR) at various detection thresholds. Further, statistical detection theory via maximum a posteriori and Bayes cost approaches is used to determine station-level optimum “family” size thresholds before detections should be considered for network-level processing. These threshold-determining methods are extensible for family-characterizing statistics other than “size,” such as a family’s collective F-statistic or signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Therefore, the reliability of analysts’ decisions as to whether families should be preserved for network-level processing can only benefit from access to multiple, independent, optimum decision thresholds based upon size, F-statistic, SNR, etc.展开更多
While game theoretic tools have been widely applied to nuclear proliferation and disarmament issues, traditional decision analysis assumes that decision makers, options, and preferences are fixed. A drama theoretic ap...While game theoretic tools have been widely applied to nuclear proliferation and disarmament issues, traditional decision analysis assumes that decision makers, options, and preferences are fixed. A drama theoretic approach is used to overcome these limiting assumptions： Drama Theory （DT） II allows global leaders and national security policy makers to engage in a rational-emotional process of re-defining international security negotiations （and their ＂positions＂ in them） Until agreement on a satisfactory nuclear non-proliferation resolution is reached. The 2009 nuclear energy negotiations between Iran and world powers are modeled with DT II and the Confrontation ManagerTM Decision Support System. By adjusting strategy and deriving transformative security policy, it is shown how international security can be achieved by promoting nuclear non-proliferation and resolving strategic conflict.展开更多
基金funded by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of the University of International Relations(project No.3262016T01)
文摘Out of concern over nuclear weapons proliferation,the worry over DPRK nuclear testing is overwrought.The author sees the situation from the viewpoint of a geopolitical game in a non-proliferation mask.To attempt a geopolitical game using non-proliferation is wrongly directed,but this is the main reason the issue fluctuates and deadlocks occasionally.To solve the situation once and for all,the international community needs to recognize its geopolitical nature and cure the problem accordingly.Since DPRK leader Kim Jong-Un crossed the border April 27 to meet South Korean President Moon Jae-in,the destiny of the Korean Peninsula is,as it should be,in the hands of the Koreans,not Chinese or Americans.
文摘We introduce novel methods to determine optimum detection thresholds for the Progressive Multi-Channel Correlation (PMCC) algorithm used by the International Data Centre (IDC) to perform infrasound and seismic station-level nuclear-event detection. Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis is used with real ground truth data to determine the trade-off between the probability of detection (PD) and the false alarm rate (FAR) at various detection thresholds. Further, statistical detection theory via maximum a posteriori and Bayes cost approaches is used to determine station-level optimum “family” size thresholds before detections should be considered for network-level processing. These threshold-determining methods are extensible for family-characterizing statistics other than “size,” such as a family’s collective F-statistic or signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). Therefore, the reliability of analysts’ decisions as to whether families should be preserved for network-level processing can only benefit from access to multiple, independent, optimum decision thresholds based upon size, F-statistic, SNR, etc.
文摘While game theoretic tools have been widely applied to nuclear proliferation and disarmament issues, traditional decision analysis assumes that decision makers, options, and preferences are fixed. A drama theoretic approach is used to overcome these limiting assumptions： Drama Theory （DT） II allows global leaders and national security policy makers to engage in a rational-emotional process of re-defining international security negotiations （and their ＂positions＂ in them） Until agreement on a satisfactory nuclear non-proliferation resolution is reached. The 2009 nuclear energy negotiations between Iran and world powers are modeled with DT II and the Confrontation ManagerTM Decision Support System. By adjusting strategy and deriving transformative security policy, it is shown how international security can be achieved by promoting nuclear non-proliferation and resolving strategic conflict.
