Bayesian partial pooling to reduce uncertainty in overcoring rock stress estimation

The state of in situ stress is a crucial parameter in subsurface engineering,especially for critical projects like nuclear waste repository.As one of the two ISRM suggested methods,the overcoring(OC)method is widely used to estimate the full stress tensors in rocks by independent regression analysis of the data from each OC test.However,such customary independent analysis of individual OC tests,known as no pooling,is liable to yield unreliable test-specific stress estimates due to various uncertainty sources involved in the OC method.To address this problem,a practical and no-cost solution is considered by incorporating into OC data analysis additional information implied within adjacent OC tests,which are usually available in OC measurement campaigns.Hence,this paper presents a Bayesian partial pooling(hierarchical)model for combined analysis of adjacent OC tests.We performed five case studies using OC test data made at a nuclear waste repository research site of Sweden.The results demonstrate that partial pooling of adjacent OC tests indeed allows borrowing of information across adjacent tests,and yields improved stress tensor estimates with reduced uncertainties simultaneously for all individual tests than they are independently analysed as no pooling,particularly for those unreliable no pooling stress estimates.A further model comparison shows that the partial pooling model also gives better predictive performance,and thus confirms that the information borrowed across adjacent OC tests is relevant and effective.

Effect of temperature on soil-water characteristics and hysteresis of compacted Gaomiaozi bentonite

Laboratory tests under different constraint conditions were carried out to obtain the soil-water retention curves(SWRCs) of highly-compacted confined/unconfined Gaomiaozi(GMZ) bentonite at 20,40 and 80 ℃,respectively. The effect of temperature on the soil-water characteristics of the highly-compacted GMZ bentonite was analyzed. The results show that the water retention capacity of the highly-compacted GMZ bentonite decreases as the temperature increases under unconfined and confined conditions. At a certain temperature,the constraint conditions have little influence on the water retention capacity of the compacted bentonite at high suction,but the water retention capacity of the confined specimen is lower than that of the unconfined specimen at low suction. Under unconfined conditions,the hysteretic behaviour of the compacted bentonite decreases with increasing temperature. At high suction(>4 MPa) ,the hysteretic behaviour of the unconfined bentonite tends to increase with the decrease of the suction. In summary,the hysteretic behaviour of the compacted bentonite is not significant.

Sealing of fractures in claystone

The sealing behavior of fractures in clay rocks for deep disposal of radioactive waste has been comprehensively investigated at the GRS laboratory. Various sealing experiments were performed on strongly cracked samples of different sizes from the Callovo-Oxfordian argillite and the Opalinus clay under rel- evant repository conditions. The fractured samples were compacted and flowed through with gas or synthetic pore-water under confining stresses up to 18 MPa and elevated temperatures from 20 ℃ to 90℃. Sealing of fractures was quantified by measurements of their closure and permeability. Under the applied thermo-hydro-mechanical （THM） conditions, significant fracture closure and permeability decrease to very low levels of 10^-19 to 10^-21 m^2 were observed within time periods of months to years. The properties of the resealed claystones are comparable with those of the intact rock mass. All test results suggest high sealing potentials of the studied claystones.