On the correlation of nonlinear variables containing secular trend variations： numerical experiments

Due to global warming, the general circulation, underlying surfaces characteristics, and geophysical and meteorological elements all show evident secular trends. This paper points out that when calculating the correlation of two variables containing their own obvious secular trends, the interannual correlation characteristics between the two variables may be distorted （overestimated or underestimated）. Numerical experiments in this paper show that if two variables have opposite secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is reduced （the positive correlation is underestimated, or the negative correlation is overestimated）; and if the two variables have the same sign of secular trends, the correlation coefficient between the two variables is increased （the positive correlation is overestimated, or the negative correlation is underestimated）. Numerical experiments also suggest that the effect of secular trends on the interannual correlation of the two variables is interchangeable, that is to say, as long as the values of the two trends are not changed, the two variables interchange their positions, and the effect of the secular trends on the interannual correlation coefficient of the two variables remains the same. If the two variables have the same-（opposite-） sign trends, the effect of secular trends on the interannal correlation coefficient is more （less） distinctive. A meteorological example is given.

A Numerical Experiment Study for Effects of the GrasslandDesertification on Summer Drought in North China

In this paper, the summer climate of 1991 in North China is simulated by using the high-resolution regional climate model (RegCM2) and the effects of the grassland desertification on summer drought in the central and the northern parts of North China as well as Mongolia are studied. It shows that the regional climate model essentially catches the characteristics on distribution and seasonal variation of the precipitation that keep good agreement with the observation. The desertification makes precipitation in the central part of North China during its flood period decrease obviously in July. The border of the precipitation or the soil moisture reduction in the desertification region extends about one latitude southeastward and beyond the southeast edge of the desertification. Thus, vegetation in the border region approaches desertification further. However, there appears evident difference of variation of precipitation over the whole desertification region. The grassland desertification greatly changes the transfers of fluxes between land and atmosphere. The secondary circulation or secondary circulation cells in the desertification region are excited and as a result moisture transport is changed. The variation of flux transfers between land and atmosphere as well as the vertical motion of atmosphere is closely related to that of precipitation.

Preliminary Results from Numerical Experiments of a Heavy Rain Process with PENN STATE / NCAR MM5

PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 is used to simulate precipitation of the heavy rain process during 12-13 July 1994.The effects of different PBL parameterizations,resolvable scale moisture schemes and cumulus parameterization on the process rainfall simulation are investigated.By comparing the results of hydrostatic and nor.hydrostatic experiments,the nonhydrostatic impact upon precipitation is also examined.It is found in this study thai PENN STATE/NCAR MM5 has advantage not only in theory but also in simulating results with real data.In MM5.however,the selection of physical processes,especially water-cycle process,is very important and crucial to precipitation forecast of the case.It is concluded that the model with Grell (1993) scheme for convection and condensation method for resolvable scale precipitation captured the rainstorm during 12-13 July 1994 in Beijing area more successfully

A Preliminary Study on 1D Numerical Experiment of Water Debris Flow in Gully

In order to improve and enhance the numerical modeling methods and its application on debris flow problems,a preliminary study has been proposed in accordance with the corrected water-sediment numerical model on the premise of revised resistance and sediment capacity equations.Firstly,an overview the recent re- search achievements on numerical simulation of debris flow has been conducted,the results shown that a gener- al numerical model for debris flow can not be existed at all because the complex rheol...

Numerical Experiments of the Effects of Initial Desert Moisture on the Climate Change

A numerical model with the p-sigma incorporated coordinate system and primitive equations is used to simulate the effect of initial soil moisture in desert areas on the climate change. The results show that the present deserts have a tendency to expand. When the initial soil moisture in the desert regions increases,the desert areas will shrink but can not disappear. The small deserts may not remain any longer when there are sources of water vapour around. Both the land-sea contrast and the topography are the background conditions of the present desert distribution through the mechanism of the downdrafts and the rare precipitation over the desert regions. The increase of the initial desert soil moisture will weaken the summer monsoon circulation and, consequently, the monsoonal precipitation.

Numerical Experiment of Combined Infrared and Ultraviolet Radiation Remote Sensing to Determine the Profile and Total Content of Atmospheric Ozone

A new remote sensing method is described to determine the vertical distribution and total content of atmospheric ozone. The method combines surface infrared, satellite infrared and ultraviolet channels. The width of the infrared channels is 0.01 cm-1, less than Lorentz half-width at the earth's surface, rather than the present width, because these channels can obtain information about variations in the ozone profile below the profile main-peak. The numerical experiments show that the method has a satisfactory precision in determining total ozone content, just about I percent error, and vertical distribution from the earth to 65 km space. In addition, some semi-analysis functions lor calculating backscattered ultraviolet and a relaxation equation are described in this paper.

SEVERAL NEW TYPES OF FINITE-DIFFERENCE SCHEMES FOR SHALLOW-WATER EQUATION WITH INITIAL-BOUNDARY VALUE AND THEIR NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT

This paper proposed several new types of finite-difference methods for the shallow water equation in absolute coordinate system and put forward an effective two-step predictor-corrector method, a compact and iterative algorithm for five diagonal matrix. Then the iterative method was used for a multi-grid procedure for shallow water equation. A t last, an initial-boundary value problem was considered, and the numerical results show that the linear sinusoidal wave would successively evolve into conoidal wave.

A Numerical Experiment of Mesolow on the Eastern Side of the Taihang Mountains

A numerical experiment on the formation and decay process of a mesolow on the plain east to the Taihang Mountains has been conducted. The dynamical effect of the special topography of the Taihang Mountains and the Yanshan Mountains on the formation of the mesolow is very important. Namely, the difference of the heating between the Taihang Mountains and the North China plain plays an important role in the formation and decay of the mesolow.

Some numerical experiments of the dynamics of the wintertime circulation in the Northern Huanghai Sea and the Bohai Sea

-Some numerical experiments have been developed to explain dynamically the mechanism of the formation of the wintertime circulation in the Northern Huanghai Sea and the Bohai Sea. From the results of the numerical experiments with Coriolis parameter having positive and negative values respectively, it is found that the current pattern characterized by flowing into the Bohai Sea in the northern part of the Bohai Straits and flowing out of the Bohai Sea in the southern part of the Bohai Straits is controlled basically by the bottom topography with 'the deepness on the northern side and shallowness on the southern side'in the Bohai Straits, and is not related to Coriolis parameter having positive and negative values. It also shows that the Huanghai Warm Current regarded as the inllow condition passing through the in-ports at the water boundary of the numerical experiments only influences the region near the water boundary and the eastern region of the Northern Huanghai Sea. In addition, the mechanism of the formation of several mesoscale eddies and the influence of the bottom topography on the wintertime circulation in the basin have been discussed.

Numerical experiments on the evolution in coronal magnetic configurations including a filament in response to the change in the photosphere

We investigate equilibrium height of a flux rope, and its internal equilib- rium in a realistic plasma environment by carrying out numerical simulations of the evolution of systems including a current-carrying flux rope. We find that the equilib- rium height of a flux rope is approximately described by a power-law function of the relative strength of the background field. Our simulations indicate that the flux rope can escape more easily from a weaker background field. This further confirms that a catastrophe in the magnetic configuration of interest can be triggered by a decrease in strength of the background field. Our results show that it takes some time to reach internal equilibrium depending on the initial state of the flux rope. The plasma flow inside the flux rope due to the adjustment for the internal equilibrium of the flux rope remains small and does not last very long when the initial state of the flux rope com- mences from the stable branch of the theoretical equilibrium curve. This work also confirms the influence of the initial radius of the flux rope in its evolution; the results indicate that a flux rope with a larger initial radius erupts more easily. In addition, by using a realistic plasma environment and a much higher resolution in our simulations, we notice some different characteristics compared to previous studies in Forbes.

NUMERICAL STUDY ON THE EFFECTS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ON TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY-PART I:NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY RELATED TO SST

In the context of a model of tropical cyclone intensity based on an improved meso-scale atmospheric model, numerical simulation is performed of the track and intensity variation of tropical cyclones (TC) arising from sea surface temperature (SST) variation over a specified sea region. Evidence suggests that the model is capable of modeling quite welt the track and intensity of TC: SST variation leads to an abrupt change in the cyclone intensity: the response of the cyclone to the abrupt SST change lasts 8—12 h.

FIXED-POINT CONTINUATION APPLIED TO COMPRESSED SENSING:IMPLEMENTATION AND NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS

Fixed-point continuation （FPC） is an approach, based on operator-splitting and continuation, for solving minimization problems with l1-regularization：min ｜｜x｜｜1＋uf（x）.We investigate the application of this algorithm to compressed sensing signal recovery, in which f（x） = 1/2｜｜Ax-b｜｜2M,A∈m×n and m≤n. In particular, we extend the original algorithm to obtain better practical results, derive appropriate choices for M and u under a given measurement model, and present numerical results for a variety of compressed sensing problems. The numerical results show that the performance of our algorithm compares favorably with that of several recently proposed algorithms.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT WITH PROCESSES FOR EFFECT OF AUSTRALIAN COLD AIR ACTIVITY ON EAST-ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON

Based on diagnostic results,a numerical study is made of the processes of Australian cold air activity affecting East Asian summer monsoon by using Kuo-Qian P-σ incorporated coordinate five-layer primitive equation spherical band model.Analysis is done of the response to the Southern Hemisphere circulation with and without cold air activity in Australia of the flow,rainfall and diabatic heating fields in the monsoon area of Asia,especially,East Asia,with special attention to the intensification and northward march of the monsoon due to the activity.It is found that the processes for the effect transmission are very analogous to the meridional propagation of quasi-40-day oscillation,together with the meridional wind disturbance showing south-north travel and the flow/rainfall fields exhibitirg corresponding movement in this direction,only with a 12-day lag.

Numerical Experiment Research of a Marine Fog Event in the Pearl River Estuary Region

A marine fog event that occurred near the Pearl River Estuary region on 26March 2002 was investigated with the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University/National Centerfor Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5). The results of numerical experiment are veryconsistent with the surface observations, especially in the processes of marine fog formation andevolution. Besides, a series of sensitivity numerical experiments were performed by varying thedistribution of landuse type and the turbulence exchange process. It is shown that the marine fogforms along the coastal line. Tests have indicated that when the distribution of landuse type ismodified, the regions where the marine fog can intrude into are obviously different. The turbulenceprocess in the model is important for fog formation and evolution. If the influence of turbulenceprocess is ignored in numerical simulation experiment, the simulated maximum of the cloud liquidwater content and the height of fog top will be decreased greatly.

3D MODEL STUDY ON FOG OVER COMPLEX TERRAIN—PART Ⅱ:NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT

A series of numerical sensitivity experiments on Chongqing fog are made using the 3D fog model over complex terrain.Some factors affecting Chongqing fog are studied.

Interaction Between Typhoon and Western Pacific Subtropical Anticyclone:Data Analyses and Numerical Experiments

Three kinds of typhoons with distinct tracks are sorted based on a set of typhoon data from 1958 to 1998. The results of composite analyses confirm that different typhoon tracks correspond to different patterns of the subtropical anticyclone over the western Pacific （SAWP）. When the tracks are westward, the SAWP is strong, with a zonal form, and stretches westward; when the tracks are recurving, the main body of the SAWP shifts eastward and breaks near 160~E; and when the tracks are northward, the SAWP is located far east of its normal position. Based on the above result, two different initial fields are configured, one has a zonal and strong SAWP, and the other has a meridional and weak SAWP. By using the GOALS R42L9 climate model, a temperature disturbance is added into these two different initial fields to force the formation of a typhoon. Westward and northward tracked typhoons are well simulated, thus verifying that different patterns of the SAWP have different effects on typhoon tracks. Results also show that typhoons can induce barotropic Rossby waves propagating to the mid and high latitudes. Under different background zonal flows, the wave trains triggered by the typhoons of westward and northward tracks are also different, and their effects on the mid and high latitude circulations and the SAWP are different. Compared to a n.orthward tracked typhoon, a westward tracked typhoon is able to induce positive geopotential height anomaly to its north and northwest, resulting in the SAWP strengthening and developing westward.

Numerical Simulation and Analysis of Storm Surges Under Different Extreme Weather Event and Typhoon Experiments in the South Yellow Sea

In this study,a coupled tide-surge-wave model was developed and applied to the South Yellow Sea.The coupled model simulated the evolution of storm surges and waves caused by extreme weather events,such as tropical cyclones,cold waves,extratropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave,and tropical cyclones coupled with a cold wave.The modeled surge level and significant wave height matched the measured data well.Simulation results of the typhoon with different intensities revealed that the radius to the maximum wind speed of a typhoon with 1.5 times wind speed decreased,and its influence range was farther away from the Jiangsu coastal region;moreover,the impact on surge levels was weakened.Thereafter,eight hypothetical typhoons based on Typhoon Chan-hom were designed to investigate the effects of varying typhoon tracks on the extreme value and spatial distribution of storm surges in the offshore area of Jiangsu Province.The typhoon along path 2 mainly affected the Rudong coast,and the topography of the Rudong coast was conducive to the increase in surge level.Therefore,the typhoon along path 2 induced the largest surge level,which reached up to 2.91 m in the radial sand ridge area.The maximum surge levels in the Haizhou Bay area and the middle straight coastline area reached up to 2.37 and 2.08 m,respectively.In terms of typhoons active in offshore areas,the radial sand ridge area was most likely to be threatened by typhoon-induced storm surges.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENT OF THE INFLUENCES OF HEAT AND WIND STRESS ON THE EQUATORIAL OCEAN CIRCULATION

A time-dependent linear model on the equatorial beta plane is developed in this paper.Its vertical structure consists of two active layers with equal density and temperature above the thermocline and a quasi-stationary layer with constant density below the thermocline. The results of numerical experiments show that the direct influence of heat on the equatorial ocean is much smaller than that of wind stress.Nevertheless,through the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the change of wind stress resulting from the thermal forcing may set a determinant effect on the equilibrium and anomalous development of the ocean-atmosphere circulation.

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS FOR THE INFLUENCES OF SST ANOMALIES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA-EASTERN TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN ON THE SOUTH CHINA SEA SUMMER MONSOON ONSET

Numerical experiments with a low resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) were conducted to investigate the influences of SST anomalies (SSTA) over the South China Sea- tropical eastern indian Ocean (SCS-TEIO) on the onset of the South China Sea summer Monsoon (SCSM).With positive SSTA over the SCS-TEIO,the anomalous cyclones appear over both sides of the equator at low layer,which weakens the Somali and Australian cross-equatorial SW flow. The anomalous anticyclone in the east of Phillips strengthens the subtropical high with its ridge southwestward shifted.The anomalous anticyclones over both sides of equator at high layer strengthen the South Asia high,thus weaken the SCSM and delay its onset.With negative SSTA over the SCS-ETIO,the anomalous anticyclones appear over both sides of the equator at low layer,which strengthen the Australian but weaken the Somali cross-equatorial SW flow.The anomalous cyclone in northeast of Phillips will weaken the subtropical high.The stronger monsoon meridional circulation over the tropical western Pacific will strengthen the cross-equatorial southerly flow,and the anomalous cyclones over both sides of equator at high layer will weaken the South Asia high,hence strengthen the SCSM and advance its onset.

THE IMPACT OF RADIATIVE PROCESSES ON THE ONSET OF SUMMER MONSOON——NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS

Two numerical experiments were performed by using ECMWF limited area model in order to assess the impact of radiative processes on the onset of summer monsoon.The control experiment includes all model physics and the other experiment is exclusive of radiative processes.The simulated results show that the radiative processes enhanced the monsoon circulation and the associated vertical circulation over South Asia.Especially over the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau,the build-up of the plateau monsoon depression and the beginning of the plat- eau rainy season are highly dependent upon the radiative processes. Through the radiation-cloud interaction,the “moist processes” were enhanced over land.More latent heat was released.The feedback of the physical processes caused the strengthening of the monsoon circulation over southern Asia.