A NUMERICAL DIAGNOSIS OF LEADING SIGNALS FACILITATING A “NORTH-RIDGE SOUTH-TROUGH” DIPOLE FOR THE EARLY-2008 SOUTH-CHINA FREEZING-RAIN EVENTS

Previous studies emphasize the important role of a "north-ridge versus south-trough" dipole (affecting the latitudes from 20° to 75° N around the Tibetan Plateau) of anomalous geopotential height ( Z ) in the early-2008 abnormal cryogenic freezing-rain-and-snow events in the southern part of China. The present study intends to extract the leading signal facilitating the dipole based on the numerical outputs of a full Z-linear model for diagnosing the global Z . Using this model built on full primitive equations in spherical-isobaric coordinates, we can further split the anomaly of Z-Zfζ-uβ (representing the Z component not explicitly associated with the Coriolis parameter f and its meridional derivative β ) into 15 components. With the model-output Zfζ-uβ (mainly accounting for the dipole under the geostrophic balance) and Z-Zfζ-uβ matrices as the left and right singular vectors respectively, a maximum covariance analysis (MCA) is performed to extract the significant 2-4-day leading signal carried by the MCA Z-Zfζ-uβ mode in the upstream area of the dipole. This leading signal is mainly attributed to 1) the abnormally strong westerlies centered around the exit region of the Atlantic jet-stream and 2) the corresponding anomalous 950-300 hPa anticyclone to the south of the abnormally strong center of westerlies. The energy of the positive wave center around this jet exit region favors the downstream north-ridge while the energy of the negative wave center associated with the anomalous anticyclone favors the downstream south-trough.

On the Forced Tangentially-Averaged Radial-Vertical Circulation within Vortices. Part II: The Transformationof Tropical Storm Haima (2004)

A real case study for the transformation of Tropical Storm （TS） Haima （2004） into an extratropical cyclone （EC） is carried out numerically since,after landfall,Haima （2004） （as an EC） brought severe weather to a large area （from the south to the north） in China during 13-16 September 2004.With the linear diagnostic model （derived in a previous study） for the tangentially-averaged radial-vertical circulation within vortices moving on the spherical Earth,Haima＇s （2004） life cycle is reconstructed noticeably well.Therefore,the major contributor could be identified confidently for Haima＇s （2004） extratropical transition based on the diagnostic model outputs.The quantitative comparison shows that up to a 90% contribution to the innerregion updraft and a 55% contribution to the upper-layer outflow come from latent heating during Haima＇s （2004） TS stage.Up to a 90% contribution to the inner-region updraft and nearly a 100% contribution to the upper-layer outflow come from the upper-layer eddy angular momentum advection （EAMA） during Haima＇s （2004） EC stage.Representing the asymmetric structure of the storm,the predominantly positive contribution of the upper-layer EAMA to Haima＇s （2004） transformation is closely associated with the Sshaped westerlies in the upper layer with two jets.One jet in the cyclonic-curvature area carries cyclonic angular momentum into the storm,and the other jet in the anticyclonic-curvature area carries anticyclonic angular momentum out of the storm.Consequently,the newly-increased cyclonic tangential wind is deflected by the Coriolis force to the right to form the upper-layer outflow accompanied by the central-area rising motion,leading to Haima＇s （2004） extratropical transition after its landfall.

A Linear Diagnostic Equation for the Nonhydrostatic Vertical Motion W in Severe Storms

A linear diagnostic equation for the nonhydrostatic vertical motion W in severe storms is derived in the Cartesian-earth-spherical coordinates. This W diagnostic equation reveals explicitly how forcing factors work together to exert influence on the nonhydrostatic vertical motion in severe storms. If high-resolution global data are available in Cartesian coordinates with guaranteed quality, the Lax-Crank-Nicolson scheme and the Thomas algorithm might provide a promising numerical solution of this diagnostic equation. As a result, quantitative analyses are expected for the evolution mechanisms of severe storms.