To assess the elasticity of crude oil price to global factors related to supply of crude oil and the US dollar exchange rate, the authors employed nonlinear models including flexible least squares, and maximum likelih...To assess the elasticity of crude oil price to global factors related to supply of crude oil and the US dollar exchange rate, the authors employed nonlinear models including flexible least squares, and maximum likelihood estimator, in addition to OLS regression mode;using yearly data from 1965 to 2021. The findings indicate change in oil prices due to 1% change in any of the explanatory variables, as follows: the effect of the US dollar depreciation rate, raise crude oil price/barrel by 71 US cents;and increase in OPEC production, decrease crude oil price by 82 US cents;a decrease in non-OPEC production, raise oil price by 4.78 US$. These results imply that, if a ban imposed on Russian crude oil export, and no increase in OPEC production to compensate Russian oil loss in the international markets, global crude oil price expected to rise by 88 US$ above its level before Russian-Ukraine crisis, meaning that crude oil price expected to rise at 160 US$ pbab. However, if OPEC members increase their output level by 10 million barrels per day to compensate the Russian oil loss, then global crude oil price is expected to stay at 102 US$ pb.展开更多
In this article, the author will analyze the phenomena of soaring oil price today, how it happened, and find the reasons for the creation of OPEC, how it conducted its affairs in the market, and the economic factors t...In this article, the author will analyze the phenomena of soaring oil price today, how it happened, and find the reasons for the creation of OPEC, how it conducted its affairs in the market, and the economic factors that influenced Dr. Yamani in managing the organization effectively for a fairly long period of time to attain by the goals set out by him. I will apply the economic theories of market models, substitutability of products, the concept of price leadership etc. to explain the situation in the oil market and OPEC＇s function, which also illustrates current market behavior in the business world.展开更多
文摘To assess the elasticity of crude oil price to global factors related to supply of crude oil and the US dollar exchange rate, the authors employed nonlinear models including flexible least squares, and maximum likelihood estimator, in addition to OLS regression mode;using yearly data from 1965 to 2021. The findings indicate change in oil prices due to 1% change in any of the explanatory variables, as follows: the effect of the US dollar depreciation rate, raise crude oil price/barrel by 71 US cents;and increase in OPEC production, decrease crude oil price by 82 US cents;a decrease in non-OPEC production, raise oil price by 4.78 US$. These results imply that, if a ban imposed on Russian crude oil export, and no increase in OPEC production to compensate Russian oil loss in the international markets, global crude oil price expected to rise by 88 US$ above its level before Russian-Ukraine crisis, meaning that crude oil price expected to rise at 160 US$ pbab. However, if OPEC members increase their output level by 10 million barrels per day to compensate the Russian oil loss, then global crude oil price is expected to stay at 102 US$ pb.
文摘In this article, the author will analyze the phenomena of soaring oil price today, how it happened, and find the reasons for the creation of OPEC, how it conducted its affairs in the market, and the economic factors that influenced Dr. Yamani in managing the organization effectively for a fairly long period of time to attain by the goals set out by him. I will apply the economic theories of market models, substitutability of products, the concept of price leadership etc. to explain the situation in the oil market and OPEC＇s function, which also illustrates current market behavior in the business world.
