Bayesian discriminant analysis for prediction of coal and gas outbursts and application

Based on the principle of Bayesian discriminant analysis, we established a model of Bayesian discriminant analysis for predicting coal and gas outbursts. We selected five major indices which affect outbursts, i.e., initial speed of methane diffusion, a consistent coal coefficient, gas pressure, destructive style of coal and mining depth, as discriminating factors of the model. In our model, we divided the type of coal and gas outbursts into four grades regarded as four normal populations. We then obtained the corresponding discriminant functions through training a set of data from engineering examples as learning samples and evaluated their criteria by a back substitution method to verify the optimal properties of the model. Finally, we applied the model to the prediction of coal and gas outbursts in the Yunnan Enhong Mine. Our results coincided completely with the actual situation. These results show that a model of Bayesian discriminant analysis has excellent recognition performance, high prediction accuracy and a low error rate and is an effective method to predict coal and gas outbursts.

Research on coal structure indices to coal and gas outbursts in Pingdingshan Mine Area,China

According to the feature that coal and gas outbursts is controlled by coal structure in Pingdingshan mine area, based on the study of the distribution law of disturbed coal in Mine Area and the macroscopic characteristics of coal structure, the characteristics and genesis to micro-pore of disturbed coal, the relationship between the type of coal structure and gas parameter, and the structural feature of coal at outbursts sites are mainly explored in this paper. Further, the steps and methods are put forward that coal structure indices applied to forecast coal and gas outbursts.

Catastrophic mechanism of coal and gas outbursts and their prevention and control

Based on the engineering observations of coal and gas outbursts during mining processes and the experimental results,we built a thin plate mechanical model for layered and spalled coal bodies.We studied the mechanical mechanism of outbursts,due to instability,of thin plates of coal rocks under the action of in-plane load and normal load,by using the catastrophe theory.The total potential function is derived for the layered rock system,the cusp catastrophe model for the system is established,the bifurcation set that makes the system unstable is given,the process in which gradual change of action forces leads to catastrophic change of state is analyzed,and the effect of movement path of point(P,q) in the control space on the stability of rock plate is analyzed.The study results show that during the process of coal mining,the stability of the layered coal bodies depends not only on its physical properties and dimensions but also on the magnitudes and changing paths of the in-plane load and the normal load.When the gas in the coal bodies ahead of the mining face is pre-drained,the gas pressure can be reduced and the normal load q can be lowered.Consequently,disasters such as coal and gas outbursts can be effectively prevented.

Research on Geological Structure Mark of Coal and Gas Outbursts in Pingdingshan Mining Area

Based on the study of regional displaying rules of coal and gas outburst controlled by geological structure in Pingdingshan mining area, the geological structure features in outburst sites were investigated emphatically. The combination type, orientation and least seam thickness in outburst sites were put forward. This research provides a geological mark for forecasting gas outbursts in deep mining.

Study of coal and gas outbursts by numerical modeling approach

Abstract During mining or road-way development, the distribution of stress and coal pore pressure in the coal face and rib around the new opening will change, under certain conditions, dynamic failure of coal in the form of an outburst can occur. In the modeling studies presented in this paper, an outburst was considered to consist of three distinct stages： preinitiation, initiation and post-initiation, which takes into account the major processes and mechanisms that can influence both outburst-proneness and post-initiation outburst behavior. The model has been applied to simulate the effects of mechanisms in the coal matrix, coal strength, coal damage, geological structures on outbursts. The model constructed using the FLAC software, which were undertaken to research the effects on outbursts of coal strength pressure gradient, and other factors.

Microseismic Monitoring Data Fusion Algorithm and Coal and Gas Outbursts Prediction

The prediction study on coal and gas outbursts is carried out by monitoring some indices which are sensitive to the initiation of coal and gas outbursts. The values and changing roles of the indices are the foundations of coal and gas outbursts prediction. But now, only the data of ere key monitoring station is used in the coal and gas outbursts prediction practice, and the other data are ignored. In order to overcome the human factor and make full use of the monitoring information, the technique of multi-sensor target tracking is proposed to deal with the microseismic informatiion. With the results of microseismic events, the activities of geological structure, fracure-depth of roof and floor, and the location of gas channel are obtained. These studies indicate that it is considerably possible to predict the coal and gas outbursts using microseismic monitoring with its inherent ability to remotely monitor the progressive failure caused by mining.

A coupled DEM and LBM model for simulation of outbursts of coal and gas

An outburst of coal and gas is a major hazard in underground coal mining. It is generally accepted that an outburst occurs when certain conditions of stress, coal gassiness and physical-mechanical properties of coal are met. Outbursting is recognized as a two-step process, i.e., initiation and development. In this paper, we present a fully-coupled solid and fluid code to model the entire process of an outburst. The deformation, failure and fracture of solid （coal） are modeled with the discrete element method, and the flow of fluid （gas and water） such as free flow and Darcy flow are modeled with the lattice Boltzmann method. These two methods are coupled in a two-way process, i.e., the solid part provides a moving boundary condition and transfers momentum to the fluid, while the fluid exerts a dragging force upon the solid. Gas desorption from coal occurs at the solid-fluid boundary, and gas diffusion is implemented in the solid code where particles are assumed to be porous. A simple 2D example to simulate the process of an outburst with the model is also presented in this paper to demonstrate the capability of the coupled model.

Failure modes of coal containing gas and mechanism of gas outbursts

In order to explain the mechanism for gas outburst, the process of evolving fractures in coal seams is described using system dynamics with variable boundaries. We discuss the failure modes of coal containing gas and then established the flow rules after failure. The condition under which states of deformation convert is presented and the manner in which these convert is proposed. In the end, the process of gas outbursts is explained in detail. It shows that a gas outburst is a process in which the boundaries of coal seams are variable because of coal failure. If the fractures are not connected or even closed owing to coal/rock stress, fractured zones will retain a certain level of carrying capacity because of the self-sealing gas pressure. When the accumulation of gas energy reaches its limit, coal seams will become unstable and gas outbursts take place.

ONE-DIMENSIONAL FLOW MODEL FOR COAL-GAS OUTBURSTS AND INITIATION CRITERION

This paper discribes a one-dimensional flow model to explain the basic mechanism of coal-gas outbursts.A break-start criterion of coal,as the elementary outburst criterion,is given approximately.In this ideal model,the tectonic pressure before excavation,as a load on coal body,affects the break-start and then the flow field.The flow field is decoupled with the stress field,so that the gas seepage through unbroken coal body,break-start and consequent two-phase flow,and pure gas flow can be analysed independently of the stress field. The tunnelling,an external disturbance that makes the seepage intensify relatively,is an essential factor for initiating outburst.Under steady tunnelling,seepage ought to tend to be steadily progressive.From its asymptotic solution initiation criterion is obtained.This is described by three conditions,possibility condi- tion—tectonic pressure condition,incubation condition—tunnelling or gas condition and triggering condi- tion—seepage velocity condition.

Research on hydraulic slotting technology controlling coal-gas outbursts

Measured to control serious coal-gas outburst in coal seam were analyzed by theory and experimented in test site.A new technique to distress the coal-bed and drain methane,called hydraulic slotting,was described in detail,and the mechanism of hydrau- lic slotting was put forward and analyzed.The characteristic parameter of hydraulic slotting was given in Jiaozuo mining area and the characteristic of validity,adaptability and secu- rity was evaluated.The results show that the stress surrounding the strata and the gas in coal seam is released efficiently and thoroughly while new techniques are taken,as slot- ting at heading face by high pressure large diameter jet.The resistance to coal and gas outbursts is increased dramatically once the area of slotting is increased to a certain size. In the process of driving 2 000 m tunnel by hydraulic slotting excavation,coal and gas outburst never occurre.The technique could be used to prevent and control potential coal-gas outburst in the proceeding of tunnel driving,and the speed tunneling could be as high as more than 2 times.

Regression analysis of major parameters affecting the intensity of coal and gas outbursts in laboratory

Estimating the intensity of outbursts of coal and gas is important as the intensity and frequency of outbursts of coal and gas tend to increase in deep mining. Fully understanding the major factors contributing to coal and gas outbursts is significant in the evaluation of the intensity of the outburst. In this paper, we discuss the correlation between these major factors and the intensity of the outburst using Analysis of Variance(ANOVA) and Contingency Table Analysis(CTA). Regression analysis is used to evaluate the impact of these major factors on the intensity of outbursts based on physical experiments. Based on the evaluation, two simple models in terms of multiple linear and nonlinear regression were constructed for the prediction of the intensity of the outburst. The results show that the gas pressure and initial moisture in the coal mass could be the most significant factors compared to the weakest factor-porosity. The P values from Fisher's exact test in CTA are: moisture(0.019), geostress(0.290), porosity(0.650), and gas pressure(0.031). P values from ANOVA are moisture(0.094), geostress(0.077), porosity(0.420), and gas pressure(0.051). Furthermore, the multiple nonlinear regression model(RMSE: 3.870) is more accurate than the linear regression model(RMSE: 4.091).

Near-source characteristics of two-phase gas-solid outbursts in roadways

Coal and gas outbursts compromise two-phase gas-solid mixtures as they propagate as shock waves and flows from their sources.Propagation is influenced by the form of the outburst,proximity to source,the structure and form of the transmitting roadways and the influence of obstacles.The following characterizes the propagation of coal and gas outbursts as two-phase gas-solid flows proximal to source where the coupled effects of pulverized coal and gas flows dominate behavior.The characteristics of shock wave propagation and attenuation were systematically examined for varied roadway geometries using experiments and numerical models.The results demonstrate that the geometry of roadway obstructions is significant and may result in partial compression and sometimes secondary overpressurization in blocked and small comer roadways leading to significant attenuation of outburst shock waves.The shock waves attenuate slowly in both straight and abruptly expanding roadways and more significantly in T-shaped roadways.The most significant attenuation appears in small angle comers and bifurcations in roadways with the largest attenuation occurring in blocked roadways.These results provide basic parameters for simplifying transport in complex roadway networks in the far-field,and guidance for the design of coal and gas outburst prevention facilities and emergency rescue.

Prediction method for risks of coal and gas outbursts based on spatial chaos theory using gas desorption index of drill cuttings

Based on the evolution of geological dynamics and spatial chaos theory, we proposed the advanced prediction an advanced prediction method of a gas desorption index of drill cuttings to predict coal and gas outbursts. We investigated and verified the prediction method by a spatial series data of a gas desorption index of drill cuttings obtained from the 113112 coal roadway at the Shitai Mine. Our experimental results show that the spatial distribution of the gas desorption index of drill cuttings has some chaotic charac- teristics, which implies that the risk of coal and gas outbursts can be predicted by spatial chaos theory. We also found that a proper amount of sample data needs to be chosen in order to ensure the accuracy and practical maneuverability of prediction. The relative prediction error is small when the prediction pace is chosen carefully. In our experiments, it turned out that the optimum number of sample points is 80 and the optimum prediction pace 30. The corresponding advanced prediction pace basically meets the requirements of engineering applications.

A new three-stage evolution model for millimeter to centimeter wavelength outbursts in BL Lacertae

The multi-frequency light curves of BL Lacertae during 1997.5 - 1999.5 have been modeled by four outbursts, each having a 3-stage evolution in the （Sm, vm） plane with distinct rising-plateau-decaying phases. It is shown that the observed light curves can be well fitted for the eight frequencies from 350 GHz to 4.8 GHz. The main characteristics of the model-fitting are; （1） the outbursts are found to have very flat spectra with an optically thin spectral index α （defined as Sv α u^-α） of about 0.15. This is consistent with the results previously obtained by Valtaoja et al. （1992）; （2） it is found that there is no spectral flattening between the rising-plateau phase and the decay phase. In other words, the optically thin spectral index does not change from the rising-plateau phase to the decay phase. These features are in contrast to the 3-stage shocked-in-jet model proposed by Marscher ＆ Gear （1985） for submm- IR-optical flares, in which a spectral flattening of △α = 0.5 is predicted when a transition occurs from the Compton/synchrotron phase （or rising-plateau phase） to the adiabatic phase （or decay phase） with α≥ 0.5 for the shock being non-radiative. We propose a new model to interpret the fitting results, suggesting that the 3-stage evolution of the mm-cm outbursts in BL Lacertae may be related to the process of shock formation and propagation in a highly collimated jet （for example, a ＇parabolic＇ jet）. In particular, during the rising phase, the thickness of the synchrotron-radiating region created by the shock may rapidly increase with time （relative to the jet width） due to the rapid injection of relativistic electrons and a magnetic field, and this leads to the observed behavior that the turnover flux density Sm rapidly increases while the turnover frequency um decreases. In the decay phase, the emitting plasma enters into a free expansion regime without further injection of relativistic electrons and a magnetic field （for example, when a transition from a collimated regime into a conical regime occurs）. The plateau phase is a short period between the two regimes with no distinct features determined.

A Fluid-Structure Interaction Simulation of Coal and Gas Outbursts Based on the Interaction between the Gas Pressure and Deformation of a Coal-Rock Mass

Based on the theories of the gas seepage in coal seams and the deformation of the coal-rock medium,the gas seepage field in coal-rock mass is coupled with the deformation field of the coal-rock mass to establish a fluidstructure interaction model for the interaction between coal gas and coal-rock masses.The outburst process in coal-rock masses under the joint action of gas pressure and crustal stress is simulated using the material point method.The simulation results show the changes in gas pressure,velocity distribution,maximum principal stress distribution,and damage distribution during the process of the coal and gas outburst,as well as themovement and accumulation of coal-rock masses after the occurrence of the outburst.It was found that the gas pressure gradient was greatest at theworking face after the occurrence of the outburst,the gas pressures and pressure gradients at each location within the coal seamgradually decreased with time,and the damage distribution was essentially the same as the minimum principal stress distribution.The simulation further revealed that the outburst first occurred in themiddle of the tunnel excavation face and that the speed at which particles of coal mass were ejected was highest at the center and decreased toward the upper and lower sides.The study provides a scientific basis for enhancing our understanding of the mechanism behind coal and gas outbursts,as well as their prevention and control.

Gas and coal outbursts in Polish minescauses and assessing methods

The paper presents some information about gas and coal outbursts threat in Polish coal mines.It shows the methodology for threat identification and monitoring for gas and coal outbursts in the Polish coal mines.One of the main methods of assessing threats in the mining industry in Poland and China is desorbometric method.The paper presents some results of estimation of uncertainties of the desorption rate Δp,determined in situ,by use of liquid manometric desorbometer gauge.It was observed that,if there are coal subgrains in desorbometer contaminator,the results of desorption rate may be even up to 60% higher than results obtained for the normative sample.Possibly method of the uncertainty reduction are presented in the paper as well.

OUTBURSTS OF COMET HALE-BOPP

In this paper, we present the observations of Comet Hale-Bopp by means of photoelectric and photographic photometry during the period from September to November of 1996. It is shown that there appears to have been 3 outbursts around 24 Sept., 26 Oct. and 13 Nov.; and it is also possible that an event of outburst has taken place around 9 Oct.

Insight-HXMT Research Progress Since 2023

Since the launch in June 2017,Insight-HXMT has been in service smoothly in orbit and particularly productive in 2023 and 2024.Among a total number of 238 papers published so far based on Insight-HXMT data,63 were published in 2023,and 32 in the early 2024(till 2024 April),accounting for 40%of the total.These studies cover a variety of scientific subjects including the basic properties of black holes and neutron stars,the outburst of accreting black hole and neutron star X-ray binaries,thermal nuclear burst probes,isolated pulsars,quasi periodical oscillations,cyclotron resonant scattering features,fast radio bursts and gamma-ray bursts,etc.This paper introduces the overall progress with focus on some potential breakthroughs.

Debris Fan Produced by Failure of Canyon-Blocking Pyroclastic Flows

Ash-rich pyroclastic flows from the cataclysmic eruption of Mount Mazama (~7700 yr. B. P.), Cascade volcanic arc, Oregon, entered and blocked the narrow, bedrock-lined canyon of the Williamson River approximately 35 to 44 km from the source volcano. The blockage impounded a body of water which then released producing four stratigraphic units in the downstream debris fan. The four stratigraphic units are a boulder core comprised of locally sourced bedrock boulders and three sand-rich units including a fine-grained sand unit, a sandy pumice gravel (±basalt/hydrovolcanic tuff) unit, and a pumice pebble-bearing, crystal-rich sand unit. Hand-drilled auger holes up to ~1.6 m deep were used to obtain samples of the sand-rich units. Units were delimited using surface and down-hole observations, composition and texture, estimated density, statistical parameters of grain size, and vertical and lateral distribution of properties. Overtopping followed by rapid incision into the ash-rich pyroclastic flows progressively cleared the canyon, but a bedrock knickpoint near the head of the canyon limited the volume of debris available for transport to about 0.04 km3 to 0.08 km3. Co-deposition of bedrock boulders and lithic-rich sand was followed by rapid deposition with minimal reworking of remobilized pyroclastics. Continued draining of the impounded lake sent hyperconcentrated flows onto the debris fan depositing pumice-rich gravels that graded upward to crystal-rich sands.

Response characteristics of gas pressure under simultaneous static and dynamic load:Implication for coal and gas outburst mechanism

Coal and gas outbursts are dynamic disasters in which a large mass of gas and coal suddenly emerges in a mining space within a split second.The interaction between the gas pressure and stress environment is one of the key factors that induce coal and gas outbursts.In this study,first,the coupling relationship between the gas pressure in the coal body ahead of the working face and the dynamic load was investigated using experimental observations,numerical simulations,and mine-site investigations.It was observed that the impact rate of the dynamic load on the gas-bearing coal can significantly change the gas pressure.The faster the impact rate,the speedier the increase in gas pressure.Moreover,the gas pressure rise was faster closer to the impact interface.Subsequently,based on engineering background,we proposed three models of stress and gas pressure distribution in the coal body ahead of the working face:static load,stress disturbance,and dynamic load conditions.Finally,the gas pressure distribution and outburst mechanism were investigated.The high concentration of gas pressure appearing at the coal body ahead of the working face was caused by the dynamic load.The gas pressure first increased gradually to a peak value and then decreased with increasing distance from the working face.The increase in gas pressure plays a major role in outburst initiation by resulting in the ability to more easily reach the critical points needed for outburst initiation.Moreover,the stronger the dynamic load,the greater the outburst initiation risk.The results of this study provide practical guidance for the early warning and prevention of coal and gas outbursts.