基于OMR方法的城市化进程对辽宁省气温变化的影响分析

利用1961—2018年辽宁省61个国家级气象站逐日平均、最高、最低气温观测资料以及NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,定量分析了城市化对辽宁省气温变化的影响。结果表明:辽宁省气温呈显著增加趋势,观测资料的增温趋势较再分析资料明显;逐日平均、最高、最低气温均表现出冬季增温速率最快,春季、秋季次之,夏季增温速率最慢;在城市化影响贡献率上,秋季最大,夏季和春季次之,冬季相对较小;空间分布上,辽宁省绝大部分地区城市化影响呈上升趋势,呈现出中部大于外围,东部大于西部,南部大于北部的分布形势,城镇化发展水平越高的地区,观测与再分析方法的差值增加趋势越明显;平均气温、最高、最低气温的城市化影响分别是0.13℃/10 a、0.045℃/10 a、0.216℃/10 a,城市化影响贡献率分别为38.5%、19.5%、43.4%,说明快速的城市化进程是导致辽宁省气温增暖的重要因素。

植被覆盖状况影响中国地表气温变化的观测事实

利用NOAA/AVHRR归一化植被指数(NDVI)及观测气温与再分析地表气温的差值(Observation MinusReanalysis,OMR)分析了植被覆盖状况对中国地表气温变化的影响.结果表明,地表气温OMR趋势值与NDVI在空间上呈现出显著的负相关关系,植被覆盖状况差(NDVI小于0.1)的区域地表升温较为显著,气温OMR趋势值超过0.2℃/10a,而植被覆盖度高(NDVI大于0.5)的区域气温OMR趋势值则变化不大,甚至出现降温.气温OMR趋势值对植被的季节变化还有着敏感的响应.不同区域植被覆盖状况的差异可能导致中国地表气温变化对全球变暖的响应不同,预测中国未来气候变化需要考虑植被覆盖状况及其动态变化的影响.

城市化进程对重庆夏季高温炎热天气的影响

利用重庆17站观测资料和NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,研究了城市化进程对重庆夏季高温炎热天气的影响。结果表明:随着城市化进程的加快,城区代表站沙坪坝高温和炎热日数呈减少趋势,与邻近的郊区呈现出明显差异。进一步分析其可能原因,沙坪坝日最高气温升温较郊区缓慢,相对湿度增加,均呈现较为显著的城市化效应,说明沙坪坝夏季高温和炎热日数与邻近郊区明显趋势不同的主要原因是由于城郊最高气温的变化差异。相关分析表明,随着城市化进程的加快,主城区炎热日数的变化与郊区的差异逐渐增大,也说明沙坪坝炎热日数的减少不是大尺度的区域气候变化造成的,而是城市化进程加快导致的。利用OMR方法分析了重庆都市圈观测气温与NNR气温的差异,城市化进程加快对平均气温和最低气温是增温影响,且以最低气温的影响较为明显,同时对最高气温的影响则为降温效果。

中国东部地区城市化及土地用途改变对区域温度的影响

基于经过非均一性检验及订正前后1979-2003年中国东部地区130个气象台站的日平均、最高和最低温度常规观测资料,利用研究区域内气象台站常规观测资料和NCEP/NCAR(The NationalCenters for Atmospheric Prediction and the National Center for Atmosphetic Research)再分析资料温度变化趋势的差值,本文定量考察了研究区域内城市化及土地利用类型改变对区域温度气候趋势的贡献.研究结果显示,经过订正后的台站观测数据具有一定的可信度,比订正前更具合理性.城市化及土地利用类型的改变造成了研究区域内城镇气象站点日平均、最高和最低温度的上升,其中日最低温度的上升程度大于日最高温度,从而导致了日较差温度的下降.进一步研究表明,从1980年代后期开始,城镇气象站点的日平均和最低温度明显上升.从不同季节来看,冬季是区域温度变化趋势最为明显的季节,但却是城市化及土地利用类型改变对区域温度气候趋势贡献最小的季节,对研究区域温度气候趋势贡献最大的季节为夏季.

城市化进程对珠江三角洲地区气温变化的影响

根据1979—2010年珠江三角洲24个气象站的气温观测数据以及NCEP/NCAR R1地表气温再分析月资料,运用OMR(observation minus reanalysis)方法分析了珠三角地区平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温的年、季变化趋势。研究结果表明,过去32年珠三角大部分地区呈增温趋势,年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温的OMR趋势分别为0.22/10a、0.19℃/10a、0.23℃/10a,对珠三角地区观测气温增暖的贡献率分别为55.7%、41.7%、57.2%;四季OMR增温趋势冬季最大,夏秋季较小。城市化对区域平均最低气温的影响比对平均最高气温的影响更大。

Effects of land use and cover change on surface wind speed in China

The surface wind speed(SWS)is affected by both large-scale circulation and land use and cover change(LUCC).In China,most studies have considered the effect of large-scale circulation rather than LUCC on SWS.In this study,we evaluated the effects of LUCC on the SWS decrease during 1979-2015 over China using the observation minus reanalysis(OMR)method.There were two key findings:(1)Observed wind speed declined significantly at a rate of 0.0112 m/(s·a),whereas ERA-Interim,which can only capture the inter-annual variation of observed data,indicated a gentle downward trend.The effects of LUCC on SWS were distinct and caused a decrease of 0.0124 m/(s·a)in SWS;(2)Due to variations in the characteristics of land use types across different regions,the influence of LUCC on SWS also varied.The observed wind speed showed a rapid decline over cultivated land in Northwest China,as well as a decrease in China’s northeastern and eastern plain regions due to the urbanization.However,in the Tibetan Plateau,the impact of LUCC on wind speed was only slight and can thus be ignored.

Sensitivity of surface air temperature change to land use/cover types in China

Using CRU high resolution grid observational temperature and ERA40 reanalysis surface air temperature data during 1960–1999, we investigated the sensitivity of surface air temperature change to land use/cover types in China by subtracting the reanalysis from the observed surface air temperature (observation minus reanalysis, OMR). The results show that there is a stable and systemic impact of land use/cover types on surface air temperature. The surface warming of each land use/cover type reacted differently to global warming. The OMR trends of unused land (?0.17 °C/decade), mainly comprised by sandy land, Gobi and bare rock gravel land, are obviously larger than those of the other land use/cover types. The OMR over grassland, farmland and construction land shows a moderate decadal warmingabout 0.12°C/decade, 0.10°C/decade, 0.12°C/decade, respectively. Woodland areas do not show a significant warming trend (0.06°C/decade). The overall assessment indicates that the surface warming is larger for areas that are barren and anthropogenically developed. The better the vegetation cover, the smaller the OMR warming trend. Responses of surface air temperature to land use/cover types with similar physical and chemical properties and biological processes have no significant difference. The surface air temperature would not react significantly until the intensity of land cover changes reach a certain degree. Within the same land use/cover type, areas in eastern China with intensive human activities exhibit larger warming trend. The results provide observational evidence for modeling research on the impact of land use/cover change on regional climate. Thus, projecting further surface climate of China in regional scale should not only take greenhouse gas increase into account, but also consider the impact of land use/cover types and land cover change.