Roles of initial ocean states on predicting the 2002/03 central Pacific El Nino

The 2002/03 El Ni？o event, a new type of El Ni？o with maximum warm anomaly occurring in the central equatorial Pacific, is known as central-Pacific（CP） El Ni？o. In this study, on the basis of an El Ni？o prediction system, roles of the initial ocean surface and subsurface states on predicting the 2002/03 CP El Ni？o event are investigated to determine conditions favorable for predicting El Ni？o growth and are isolated in three sets of hindcast experiments. The hindcast is initialized through assimilation of only the sea surface temperature（SST）observations to optimize the initial surface condition（Assim_SST）, only the sea level（SL） data to update the initial subsurface state（Assim_SL）, or both the SST and SL data（Assim_SST＋SL）. Results highlight that the hindcasts with three different initial states all can successfully predict the 2002/03 El Ni？o event one year in advance and that the Assim_SST＋SL hindcast performs best. A comparison between the various sets of hindcast results further demonstrates that successful prediction is significantly affected by both of the initial surface and subsurface conditions, but in different developing phases of the 2002/03 El Ni？o event. The accurate initial surface state can easier trigger the prediction of the 2002/03 El Ni？o, whereas a more reasonable initial subsurface state can contribute to improving the prediction in the growth of the warm event.

The Four Dimensional Connotation Definition of Scientific Understanding of the Ocean and Human Practical Achievements

By analyzing the sustainable development process of strengthening marine environmental protection and global reporting and assessment of marine environmental conditions since the Human Environment Conference, this paper summarizes the scientific connotation of “scientific understanding of the ocean” reflected in the United Nations Global Marine Environmental Assessment Report, proposes the etymological definition and specific coverage, representative global and regional practical experience of scientific understanding of the ocean, and further analyzes and defines the human activities and cognitive evolution process of “scientific understanding of the ocean”. It marks the leap in human cognition in four dimensions: observation and evaluation, intervention and regulation, disciplinary knowledge system, and supporting guarantee system. It condenses the connotation definitions and human practical achievements of each dimension, and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions to strengthen marine environmental protection and sustainable development.

A Note on the Relationship Between Temperature and Water Vapor over Oceans, Including Sea Surface Temperature Effects

An ideal and simple formulation is successfully derived that well represents a quasi-linear relationship found between the domain-averaged water vapor, Q （ram）, and temperature, T （K）, fields for the three tropical oceans （i.e., the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans） based on eleven GEOS-3 [Goddard Earth Observing System （EOS） Version-3] global re-analysis monthly products. A Q - T distribution analysis is also performed for the tropical and extra-tropical regions based on in-situ sounding data and numerical simulations [GEOS-3 and the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble （GCE） model]. A similar positively correlated Q - T distribution is found over the entire oceanic and tropical regions; however, Q increases faster with T for the former region. It is suspected that the tropical oceans may possess a moister boundary layer than the Tropics. The oceanic regime falls within the lower bound of the tropical regime embedded in a global, curvilinear Q - T relationship. A positive correlation is also found between T and sea surface temperature （SST）; however, for one degree of increase in T, SST is found to increase 1.1 degrees for a warmer ocean, which is slightly less than an increase of 1.25 degrees for a colder ocean. This seemingly indicates that more （less） heat is needed for an open ocean to maintain an air mass above it with a same degree of temperature rise during a colder （warmer） season [or in a colder （warmer） region]. Q and SST are also found to be positively correlated. Relative humidity （RH） exhibits similar behaviors for oceanic and tropical regions. RH increases with increasing SST and T over oceans, while it increases with increasing T in the Tropics. RH, however, decreases with increasing temperature in the extratropics. It is suspected that the tropical and oceanic regions may possess a moister local boundary layer than the extratropics so that a faster moisture increase than a saturated moisture increase is favored for the former regions. T, Q, saturated water vapor, RH, and SST are also examined with regard to the warm and cold ＂seasons＂ over individual oceans. The Indian Ocean warm season dominates in each of the five quantities, while the Atlantic Ocean cold season has the lowest values in most categories. The higher values for the Indian Ocean may be due to its relatively high percentage of tropical coverage compared to the other two oceans. However, Q is found to increase faster for colder months from individual oceans, which differs from the general finding in the global Q - T relationship that Q increases slower for a colder climate. The modified relationship may be attributed to a possible seasonal （warm and cold） variability in boundary layer depth over oceans, or to the small sample size used in each individual oceanic group.

Present state,basic theories,methods and progresses of investigation and assessment on marine hazardous geology in China

The achievement progresses of investigation and studies on marine hazardous geology are summarized and presentsd in the late 20 century in China. The importance, research value and present-day studies of marine hazardous geology, a newly developing branch of geoscience, are well expatiated. Several often confused concepts and theories are explained and redefined here. The comment on the means of investigations, assessment of marine hazardous geology, as well as its evolution, innovation, existing questions and future tasks are also introduced and presented. The concepts of 'hazard geology', geohazard', 'map of marine hazard geology', 'integrated evaluaton on seafloor stablity' are respectively discussed, including their definition, research objects, methods and contents. The types and classification of marine hazardous geology, principles and methods of marine hazardous geology map compilation, the assessment methods and models of marine hazardous geology environment and seafloor stability and so on are also discussed.

Optimal Precursors Triggering the Kuroshio Extension State Transition Obtained by the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Approach

In this study, the initial perturbations that are the easiest to trigger the Kuroshio Extension （KE） transition connecting a basic weak jet state and a strong, fairly stable meandering state, are investigated using a reduced-gravity shallow water ocean model and the CNOP （Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation） approach. This kind of initial perturbation is called an optimal precursor （OPR）. The spatial structures and evolutionary processes of the OPRs are analyzed in detail. The results show that most of the OPRs are in the form of negative sea surface height （SSH） anomalies mainly located in a narrow band region south of the KE jet, in basic agreement with altimetric observations. These negative SSH anomalies reduce the merid- ional SSH gradient within the KE, thus weakening the strength of the jet. The KE jet then becomes more convoluted, with a high-frequency and large-amplitude variability corresponding to a high eddy kinetic energy level; this gradually strengthens the KE jet through an inverse energy cascade. Eventually, the KE reaches a high-energy state characterized by two well defined and fairly stable anticyclonic meanders. Moreover, sensitivity experiments indicate that the spatial structures of the OPRs are not sensitive to the model parameters and to the optimization times used in the analysis.

Critical State Sedimentation Line of Soft Marine Clays

The compression behavior responsible for unity sensitivity is very valuable in quantitative assessment of the effects of soil structure on the compression behavior of soft marine sediments. However, the quantitative assessment of such effects is not possible because of unavailability of the formula for the compression curve of marine sediments responsible for unit sensitivity. In this study, the relationship between the remolded state and the conventional critical state line is presented in the deviator stress versus mean effective stress plot. The analysis indicates that the remolded state is on the conventional critical state line obtained at a relatively small strain. Thus, a unique critical state sedimentation line for marine sediments of unit sensitivity is proposed. The comparison between the critical state sedimentation line proposed in this study and the existing normalized consolidation curves obtained from conventional oedometer tests on remolded soils or reconstituted soils explains well the

基于生成式人工智能的涉海翻译:优势、挑战与前景

涉海翻译关涉国家海洋形象的构建和国家海洋话语的全球化传播,是国家对外传播中国海洋文化、中国海洋发展方案,推动“一带一路”倡议的重要手段。ChatGPT作为一种新型生成式人智能,拥有强大的语义解析能力、语境理解能力、知识生成能力和多语言支持能力,因此具有优越的自动翻译性能,应用于涉海翻译具有多方面优势。以ChatGPT为例,研究生成式人工智能在涉海翻译方面的应用,分析其翻译机理、优势、挑战和前景,旨在为国家涉海翻译能力建设提供参考。

国内学界关于美国印度洋政策研究的文献综述

20世纪90年代以来,国内学界关于美国印度洋政策的研究取得了较为丰硕的成果。特别是自2010年起,相关论著数量呈现出快速增长的趋势。就内容而言,国内学界关于美国印度洋政策的研究涉及历史学、经济学和国际关系学等学科领域,其研究方法与目标指向兼具学理性与现实关怀,体现了人文社科领域的学术研究“鉴于往事,有资于治道”的社会价值及使命。但在研究成果质量方面,仍有进一步提升的空间,例如寻找更微观的研究对象,以及借助社会学、心理学、传播学等领域的知识,拓展新的研究领域等。

大国对小岛屿国家气候援助的实践及影响:以“澳图条约”为视角

气候变化已经成为小岛屿国家最关切的议题之一,但多数小岛屿国家受限于其发展程度,只能依赖他国援助和支持以应对气候变化产生的影响。近年以来,这种需求正在变得愈发迫切。在2023年11月签订的“澳—图睦邻联盟条约(Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union Treaty)”(以下简称“澳图条约”)中,图瓦卢以包括允许澳大利亚介入其外交和安全事务在内的高昂代价,换取澳大利亚的气候援助承诺。气候变化对小岛屿国家国际法人格和海洋权利的潜在影响,是理解双方合意缔结该条约真实动因的重要切入点。更为值得关注的是,“澳图条约”反映着部分大国以气候援助为支点,愈发深入地介入小岛屿国家内外事务的实践趋向。倘若类似“气候合作”由个例演变成固定的范式,大国将不断扩张在小岛屿国家的势力范围,其他小岛屿国家也将不得不为自身的生存而寻找大国的庇护,小岛屿国家为对抗大国控制而建立的区域组织也将被瓦解,进而彻底改变目前太平洋地区的地缘政治格局。大国与小岛屿国家应对气候变化的博弈,将对我国与小岛屿国家的深度合作产生潜在影响。有鉴于此,中国应从尊重国家主权和独立自主的基本立场出发,坚决抵制以气候合作为名干涉小岛屿国家内外事务的做法,并积极为小岛屿国家提供针对性的气候变化应对方案,推动前瞻性的“气候外交”布局。

影响北极地区迅速变化的一些关键过程研究

最近研究证明 ,近半个世纪来 ,北极地区正在发生迅速变化。部分地区温度上升了 2— 3°C ,北冰洋海冰退缩 5 %,中心地区海冰厚度变薄 ,海面压力降低 ,中上层水淡化和变暖 ,吸收CO2 能力增加 ,臭氧耗损和紫外线辐射增强。中国于 1 999年开展了“中国首次北极科学考察” ,在楚科奇海、加拿大海盆、白令海以及临近海域开展了海冰气相互作用的多学科综合考察 ,对北极的区域特征及其在全球变化中的作用研究获得一些新的认识。观测到加拿大海盆中层水持续增暖的现象 ,揭示了西北冰洋与白令海水体交换的途径和次表层暖水结构 ,发现了加拿大海盆是北冰洋河水的主要储存区。利用联合冰站观测数据 ,模拟了北冰洋夏季大气边界层结构和下垫面能量平衡的变化特征 ,定量给出了北冰洋夏季海 /气和冰 /气之间湍流通量和边界层参数的差异。海 /气CO2 的通量观测表明 ,考察区的大部分海域均为大气CO2 汇区 ;西北冰洋海冰区具有较高的生物泵运转效率 ,楚科奇海陆架是一个高效的有机碳“汇”区 ,寒冷水体中微生物活动并未受到明显抑制。沉积物的地球化学过程研究表明 ,海底表层沉积物中碘含量存在着由低纬度到高纬度增加趋势 ,北极地区可能是碘的汇区 ,碘可作为极区古海洋中的地球化学元素变化的重要指标。楚科奇海、白令海?

潜射导弹水下运动过程仿真分析

为保证潜射导弹在不确定的海洋环境中能顺利出水,建立了潜射导弹水下及出水运动数学模型,对冷、热2种发射形式的导弹在无控、PID全程控制、模糊PID分段控制3种状态下的水下运动情况进行了仿真分析.结果表明,低海况下的海浪对导弹的出水姿态影响较小,高海况则不适宜进行导弹发射任务;在不确定的海况影响下,模糊PID分段控制较PID全程控制更适合对导弹的出水姿态进行控制.

利用GPS反射信号遥感全球海态

最近几年 ,迅速发展一种新的空基海洋遥感技术。它在低轨卫星上接收经海面或地面反射的GPS信号 ,通过分析C/A或P码的相关函数波形及其后沿 ,获得全球海面平均高度、浪高、海面风场以及土壤湿度等 ,提供海洋中尺度涡旋发展、演变信息 ,监测和分析高纬地区冰层厚度。它采用无源探测方法 ,具有成本低、获取数据量多和快速等突出特点 ,是传统卫星高度计探测的重要补充和发展。该文讨论了这项技术发展现状、反射信号的时间延迟以及海态参数计算等关键技术 ;也给出作者利用掩星观测资料分析得到的海面反射回波一些重要结果。

随机海浪过程模拟的随机函数方法

在平稳随机过程模拟的谱表示与正交展开两种经典方法中,通过引入标准正交随机变量的随机函数表达形式,均可实现用一个基本随机变量模拟原随机过程。在此两种模拟方法中,通过选择基本随机变量的离散代表点集来生成随机过程的样本函数集合,进而实现从样本函数集合的角度研究随机过程。应用谱表示-随机函数与正交展开-随机函数对海浪过程模拟分析,均获得较理想结果,并对此两种模拟方法的优缺点进行对比分析。

直升机自动过渡悬停控制系统设计

针对近海飞行的直升机高度测量信号中海浪噪声的干扰,利用有理谱法建立了海浪模型,设计了卡尔曼滤波器估计噪声信号,以获取精确的高度信号;根据自动过渡模态的基本要求,开发设计了反潜直升机自动过渡悬停的飞行控制系统;通过引入速度比较器和限幅器,保证当直升机高度接近悬停高度时,地速同步趋近于零,实现了高度和速度两通道之间协调控制,使直升机平滑过渡至悬停状态;对工程应用中可能出现的特殊情况及相应的处理方法进行了分析;仿真结果表明,设计的仿真系统能很好的反应真实情况,控制结构具有良好的抗风干扰能力和鲁棒性,参数摄动10%以及海浪加剧时仍保证直升机按预期轨迹运动,工程应用性强。

随机海浪模型的建立及仿真分析

给出两种简便、有效的建立随机海浪模型的方法 ,即能量等分法和有理谱法 ,并对其进行了仿真与对比分析。它对于进一步研究海上舰船航行控制和直升机海面无线电高度悬停控制有重要意义。

日本海洋软实力的发展及其对我国的借鉴意义

海洋软实力的建设是日本建设其国家软实力的重要内容,实质上是日本结合其内在需要、刻意对外打造"国家形象"的过程。这一过程共分五个阶段:"脱亚入欧"时期对海洋软实力的无意识建设、"低调收敛"时期海事社会发展模式的初步形成、"经济大国"时期海事社会发展模式的逐步成熟、"经济文化大国"时期综合性海洋政策的统筹规划、"大众文化大国"时期的全民海洋软实力建设。在这个过程中形成了两项阶段性成果和一项目标:海事社会的发展模式、综合性海洋政策下的海洋事业统筹发展模式、"国家—社会"的全民海洋事业发展模式。日本海洋软实力的建设经验为我国海洋强国的建设之路提供了重要启示。

我国业务化海洋观测发展研究——借鉴美国综合海洋观测系统

业务化的海洋观测系统可满足国家在海洋防灾减灾、海洋资源开发和海洋权益维护等方面的实际需求,是我国实施"建设海洋强国"战略的重要保障。我国业务化运行的海洋观测仍是以近岸观测为主,近海及中远海的海洋观测结果远不能达到国家的业务需求目标。学习借鉴海洋发达国家业务化观测的经验,对发展我国业务化的海洋观测系统具有重要的指导意义。文章对目前美国业务化海洋观测的布局、数据管理与通讯、教育与知识传播的状况进行了介绍和分析,并从中得到我国业务化海洋观测系统发展的方向和措施。

中美海洋管理机构的比较分析——以重组国家海洋局方案为视角

从分散模式向综合模式转变是我国海洋管理的必然之路。重组国家海洋局是整合海上执法机构的重要的第一步。依据重组方案的设计,将形成议事、决策、执行的三级管理体系,这与美国现行海洋管理架构极为相似。国家海洋局以中国海警局的名义执法,表明二者并非同一机构,相分离相区别是未来发展趋势。中国海警局与海事机构共同执法是阶段性产物,建立中国海岸警卫队、形成统一单一的海上执法机构应是我国海洋执法机构改革的终极目标。

世界地缘政治体系中心区域的大国政治——兼论印度与中国安全合作的战略互补意义

本文提出如下观点:1.资源是地缘政治及其制权理论演绎的逻辑原点;2.地缘政治与资源政治的统一,是现代地缘政治学说的本质特征;3.现代世界地缘政治是一个体系,而"一个中心、两个基本点"则是这个体系的基本特征;4."中亚是世界地缘政治的中枢,也是世界霸权的坟墓"。本文认为:位于世界地缘政治体系中心的特殊地理位置对印度的国家安全产生了更大压力,因此,印度未来安全依赖于中国的发展,而印度扩大在印度洋的作用也有利于中国的发展。

大洋锰结核中钴的赋存状态及提取实验研究

为合理有效地提取和利用大洋金属资源,在对大洋锰结核化学成分及矿物组成进行测定的基础上,采用分布溶解法对钴的赋存状态进行了分析。选择还原氨浸法对大洋锰结核中的多金属进行了浸取实验,并用铵黄铁矾法对浸取液进行了除铁及用硫化沉淀法对钴进行分离提取等实验。结果表明:大洋锰结核中钴的质量分数可达0.30%,且主要以硅酸钴、氧化钴和硫化钴的形式存在。氨浸提取可以有效地使金属离子从结核中溶出,其中钴的浸出率最高可达93.25%;铵黄铁矾法可将浸出液中的铁全部去除。提取的硫化钴中除含有少量铬外未见其它杂质元素。