Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Variability of South China Sea Summer Monsoon Intensity

The interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the South China Sea summer monsoon(SCSSM)intensity and its mechanism are investigated in this study.The interannual variability of the low-level circulation of the SCSSM has experienced a significant interdecadal enhancement around the end of the 1980s,which may be attributed to the interdecadal changes in the evolution of the tropical Indo-Pacific sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies and their impacts on the SCSSM.From 1961 to 1989,the low-level circulation over the South China Sea is primarily affected by the SST anomalies in the tropical Indian Ocean via the mechanism of Kelvin-wave-induced Ekman divergence.While in 1990 to 2020,the impacts of the summer SST anomalies in the Maritime Continent and the equatorial central to eastern Pacific on the SCSSM are enhanced,via anomalous meridional circulation and Mastuno-Gill type Rossby wave atmospheric response,respectively.The above interdecadal changes are closely associated with the interdecadal changes in the evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)events.The interdecadal variation of the summer SST anomalies in the developing and decaying phases of ENSO events enhances the influence of the tropical Indo-Pacific SST on the SCSSM,resulting in the interdecadal change in the interannual variability of the SCSSM.

Interannual and Interdecadal Variability of Atmospheric Water Vapor Transport in the Haihe River Basin

The seasonal mean atmospheric precipitable water and water vapor transport over the Haihe River Basin （HRB） in North China with a focus on their interannual to interdecadal variability, and then the relationships of the interannual and interdecadal variability of the water cycle over the HRB to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） and E1 Nino-Southern Oscillation （ENSO） phenomena were investigated using the observational and National Centers for Environmental Prediction （NCEP） reanalysis data. There was a strong interdecadal variability for the water cycle （such as precipitation and water vapor transport） over the region, with an abrupt change occurring mostly in the mid 1970s. The intensity of the East Asian summer monsoon largely affected the atmospheric water vapor transport. Generally, the net meridional convergence of the water vapor flux over the region was relatively large before 1965, and it declined gradually from then on with a further notable decrease since mid 1970s. Zonal water vapor transport was similar to meridional, but with a much smaller magnitude and no noteworthy turning in the mid 1970s. Results also suggested that the wind field played an important role in the water vapor transport over the HRB before the mid 1960s, and the interdecadal variability of the water cycle （precipitation, water vapor transport, etc.） in the summer was related to the PDO; however, interannual variation of the water vapor transport could also be related to the ENSO phenomena.

The Relationship between the Interdecadal Variation of Summer Precipitation and Its Interannual Variability over the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley

The intensity of summer precipitation interannual variability is strongest over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Valley(MLYRV). The variability is larger than 1.5 mm d–1 and up to 35%–40% of the climatological mean summer precipitation. The relationship between the interdecadal change in the intensity of summer precipitation and its interannual variability over this area is investigated, by analyzing five gauged and re-constructed precipitation datasets. The relationship is found to be very weak over the MLYRV, with a correlation coefficient of only approximately 0.10. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation influences the western North Pacific subtropical high, which is responsible for the interdecadal change in summer precipitation over the MLYRV. However, the precipitation interannual variability is closely related to the ENSO events in the preceding winter due to its impact on the meridional displacement of the East Asian westerly jet. Different physical mechanisms cause different interdecadal variation in the intensity of summer precipitation and its interannual variability, and thus result in a poor relationship.

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITY OF SURFACE WIND OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC

A global atmospheric general circulation model (L9R15 AGCMs) forced by COADS SST was integrated from 1945 to 1993. Interannual and interdecadal variability of the simulated surface wind over the tropical Pacific was analyzed and shown to agree vey well with observation. Simulation of surface wind over the central-western equatorial Pacific was more successful than that over the eastern Pacific. Zonal propagating feature of interannual variability of the tropical Pacific wind anomalies and its decadal difference were also simulated successfully. The close agreement between simulation and observation on the existence of obvious interdecadal variability of tropical Pacific surface wind attested to the high simulation capability of AGCM.

The Interannual Variability of Climate in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model

In this paper, the interannual variability simulated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation modelof the institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP CGCM) in 40 year integrations is analyzed, and compared with that bythe corresponding IAP AGCM which uses the climatic sea surface temperature as the boundary condition in 25 yearintegrations.The mean climatic states of January and July simulated by IAP CGCM are in good agreement with that by IAPAGCM, i.e., no serious 'climate drift' occurs in the CGCM simulation. A comparison of the results from AGCM andCGCM indicates that the standard deviation of the monthly averaged sea level pressure simulated by IAP CGCM ismuch greater than that by IAP AGCM in tropical region. In addition, both Southern Oscillation (SO) and NorthAtlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be found in the CGCM simulation for January, but these two oscillations do not existin the AGCM simulation.The interannual variability of climate may be classified into two typest one is the variation of the annual mean,another is the variation of the annual amplitude. The ocean-atmosphere interaction mainly increases the first type ofvariability. By means of the rotated EOF, the most important patterns corresponding to the two types of interannualvariability are found to have different spatial and temporal characteristics.

Interannual and interdecadal variability of East Asian monsoon and its relation to oceanic processes: a review

A key component of the East Asian climate system is seasonally varying monsoon wind. Its interannual and interdecadal variability, as we1l as underlying oceanic processes, is the subject of a recent project completed by the Chinese Academy of Sciences. A series of research progress in the areas of monsoon winds, ocean responses, upwelling and productivity has been made and reviewed by this paper.

RESEARCH ON THE INTERANNUAL AND INTERDECADAL VARIABILITIES OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THEIR IMPACTS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN

In this paper, we mainly summarize and review the progresses in recent climatological studies(by CMSR,IAP/CAS and some associated domestic and international institutions) on the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of monsoon troughs and their impacts on tropical cyclones and typhoons(TCs) geneses over the western North Pacific Ocean. The climatological characteristics of monsoon troughs and four types of circulation patterns favorable to TCs genesis over the western North Pacific Ocean in summer and autumn are given in this paper. It is also shown in this paper that the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean has obvious interannual and interdecadal variabilities. Especially, it is revealed in this paper that the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the monsoon trough over the western North Pacific Ocean influence the TCs genesis not only through the impact on distributions of the vorticity in the lower troposphere and the divergence in the upper troposphere, the water vapor in the mid-and lower troposphere and the vertical shear of wind fields between the upper and lower troposphere over the western North Pacific Ocean, but also through the dynamical effects of the transition between convectively coupled tropical waves and providing disturbance energy. Besides, some climatological problems associated with TCs activity over the western North Pacific Ocean that need to be studied further are also pointed out in this paper.

Interannual and Interdecadal Variations in Heat Content of the Upper Ocean of the South China Sea

The vertically averaged temperature (TAV) from surface to 100 m depth of the South China Sea for the period 1959-1988 is analyzed. The results indicate that there is a significant long-term variability from interannual to interdecadal scales in the heat content in the upper ocean. The heat content of the upper ocean of the South China Sea increases evidently in the El Nino year. TAV anomaly in the ocean was negative from the end of 1950's to early 1970's, and then changed to positive. The changes of TAV of the ocean are closely related to ENSO events, the Asian winter monsoon and the tropical atmospheric circulation anomalies.

Variability of Northeast China River Break-up Date

This paper investigates the variability of the break-up dates of the rivers in Northeast China from their icebound states for the period of 1957-2005 and explores some potential explanatory mechanisms. Results show that the break-up of the two major rivers （the Heilongjiang River and Songhuajiang River） was about four days earlier, and their freeze-up was about 4-7 days delayed, during 1989 2005 as compared to 1971 1987. This interdecadal variation is evidently associated with the warming trend over the past 50 years. In addition, the break-up and freeze-up dates have large interannual variability, with a standard deviation of about 10-15 days. The break-up date is primarily determined by the January February-March mean surface air temperature over the Siberian-Northeast China region via changes in the melting rate, ice thickness, and snow cover over the ice cover. The interannual variability of the break-up date is also significantly connected with the Northern Annular Mode （NAM）, with a correlation coefficient of 0.35-0.55 based on the data from four stations along the two rivers. This relationship is attributed to the fact that the NAM can modulate the East Asian winter monsoon circulation and Siberian-Northeast China surface air temperature in January February-March.

Interdecadal and Interannnual Variabilities of the Antarctic Oscillation Simulated by CAM3

Based on four sets of numerical simulations prescribed with atmospheric radiative forcing and sea surface temperature(SST) forcing in the Community Atmospheric Model version 3(CAM3), the interannual and interdecadal variabilities of the Antarctic oscillation(AAO) during austral summer were studied. It was found that the interannual variability is mainly driven by SST forcing. On the other hand, atmospheric radiative forcing plays a major role in the interdecadal variability. A cooling trend was found in the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere(SH) when atmospheric radiative forcing was specified in the model. This cooling trend tended to enhance the temperature gradient between the mid and high latitudes in the SH, inducing a transition of the AAO from a negative to a positive phase on the interdecadal timescale. The cooling trend was also partly weakened by the SST forcing, leading to a better simulation compared with the purely atmospheric radiative forcing run. Therefore, SST forcing cannot be ignored, although it is not as important as atmospheric radiative forcing.

东亚冬季风指数对中国冬季气候变化表征能力的对比分析

利用1951—2022年ERA5再分析大气环流资料和国家气候中心全国站点气温和降水资料,将33个常用的东亚冬季风(EAWM)指数划分为海陆差异类、高压特征类、大槽特征类、低层风场类、中高层风场类和综合类6类,按类别对比分析了它们的线性变化趋势和年际、年代际变化特征,并就各指数对中国冬季气温、降水时空变化的表征能力以及与厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)、北极涛动(AO)等气候系统主要内部变率的关系进行了评估分析。结果显示:(1)在趋势变化方面,中国冬季气候暖湿化特征明显,但仅大槽特征类和综合类指数反映出季风的减弱趋势,其余类型指数则多呈现微弱的增强趋势,表明EAWM各子成员对当前全球变暖的响应存在差异;(2)在年际、年代际变化方面,EAWM指数主要表现为准4 a、准8 a和准16 a的周期振荡,基本都能刻画出20世纪80年代中后期EAWM的年代际减弱,对于21世纪第1个10年中期EAWM的年代际增强,考虑了南北气压差的海陆差异类指数以及高压特征类、大槽特征类和中高层风场类指数能较好表征;(3)在反映中国冬季气温变率的能力方面,除低层风场类指数外,各类指数表现良好,尤其是高压特征类指数的表征能力最佳,而在降水变率方面,高压特征类指数的代表性较差,低层风场类指数的指示意义最好;(4)在与气候系统主要内部变率的关系方面,大多数指数能较好反映ENSO与EAWM之间的关系,其中低层风场类指数的表征能力最好。而在反映AO与EAWM的关系上,则是高压特征类和大槽特征类指数的表现更佳。总体而言,除趋势变化存在较大差异外,各类EAWM指数能够一致地反映中国冬季气候变化的主要特征,但不同类别指数所表征的侧重点存在差异。因此,在分析EAWM相关科学问题时应根据研究的目的选择合适的指数。

1981-2020年河南省近地面风速时空分布特征

利用1981-2020年河南省日平均10 m风速观测资料,对河南省风速的时空分布特征进行了分析评估。结果表明,河南省风速的气候态具有明显的季节循环特征,在冬、春季节地表风速较大,夏、秋季节风速较小,并且呈现出东强西弱的空间分布特征。在年循环中2月到3月风速增幅最大,其余月份间的风速演变较为平缓。在风速变化趋势方面,空间分布主要表现为西升东降的特征,豫西从过去风速最弱的地区一跃成为近10年风速最大的地区,这也与其他地区风速整体变弱有关。风速EOF的第二模态表明,河南省风速同时也具有一定的年代际变化特征。此外,风速2-9年的年际变率弱于年代际的,即风速的短期变化具有平稳性;但在气候变化的大背景下,出现了系统性的变化趋势,且具有明显的区域性差异。

Linear relationship between the interdecadal and interannual variabilities of North China rainfall in rainy season

Interdecadal and interannual timescales are dominant in the North China rainfall in rainy season (July and August). On the interdecadal timescale, the North China rainfall exhibited an abrupt decrease at the end of 1970s. In this study, we examined the effect of this abrupt rainfall decrease on the association between rainfall and circulation on the interannual timescale, and found that the interdecadal variation does not change the physical mechanism responsible for the interannual variation of North China rainfall. There is a linear relationship between the interdecadal and interannual variabilities of North China rainfall in rainy season.

西南地区秋冬雾日年际与年代际变化的对比研究

利用1958~2007年503个中国地面观测站点的雾日数资料,分析了全国秋冬雾日数的时空特征。结果表明,西南地区在秋冬发生雾日频率较高,达到了18 d以上,是中国东部地区同期雾日数的2倍以上。西南地区秋冬雾日存在显著的年际和年代际尺度气候变率。在两个时间尺度上,发生雾日的气象条件存在显著差异。在年际尺度上,西南地区中高层北风异常较为显著,因而将北方的冷空气带到西南地区,使得西南地区中高层出现了显著的冷空气异常。由于该地区处于雨带的北侧,存在一定的温湿空气,上空伴随着异常下沉运动,将高层的冷空气带到低层,而此时低层大气的温度、湿度异常偏高,冷暖空气汇合,容易过饱和,所以雾日偏多。在年代际尺度上,西南地区低层异常北风相比于年际尺度更为显著,因而低层北方冷空气的南下,使西南地区出现显著的降温降湿,但是温度下降速率快于湿度下降速率,所以温度露点差为负,空气容易达到饱和,伴随大气较为稳定,导致雾日偏多。

冬季Hadley环流与热带海表面温度的关系及其对中国气候的影响

利用1979-2021年全球海表面温度(SST)、气象再分析资料等数据,探讨冬季Hadley环流(HC)的变率及其与热带SST异常的关系,研究其对中国同期降水量和气温的影响.结果表明,HC的EOF_(1)模态(46.2%)是上升支在10°S左右的主体位于北半球的非对称模态,包含年代际和年际变率.年代际变率与印度洋(20°S~20°N,50°~90°E)SST南北不均匀增暖趋势有关(南半球大于北半球);年际变率与El Ni?o事件下印度洋(10°S~10°N,50°~90°E)异常SST经向梯度沿正方向为0的位置出现在南半球有关.EOF_(2)模态(16.7%)是关于赤道对称模态,仅体现年际变率,与El Ni?o事件下热带东太平洋(180°E~90°W)异常对称的经向热力结构有关.两个主模态与中国同期降水量和气温均呈正相关.在EOF_(1)(EOF_(2))模态影响下,中国东南沿海地区(南方地区东南部)降水偏多,与110°~120°E异常反环流有关.EOF_(1)模态下,中国西北-中部地区存在气温正距平,与下沉运动的绝热加热效应关系密切.EOF_(2)模态下,中国气温也为正距平,但温度异常不显著.

Vertical structure of variabilities in the tropical easterly jet and associated factors

热带东风急流为热带上对流层-下平流层内夏季出现的一支强东风带,其垂直范围为300-70hPa,目前其垂直结构的变化特征有待研究.本文利用经验正交函数分解研究了热带东风急流纬向垂直剖面的主要模态。第一模态表现为垂直方向上急流强度的一致变化.ENSO对第一模态的年际分量具有主导贡献,而大西洋年代际振荡和太平洋年代际振荡可能调制其年代际分量第二模态表现为热带东风急流垂直位移的年际变化.热带平流层准两年振荡不同位相的相继下传既可以直接影响对流层顶的纬向风异常,也可以通过改变海洋性大陆附近的对流异常影响热带东风急流的垂直位置.

1873～2000年东亚夏季风变化的研究

根据英国的海平面气压 (SLP)资料计算了 1 873～ 1 95 0年东亚夏季风指数 (ISM)与用NCEP的SLP资料计算的 1 95 1～ 2 0 0 0年ISM衔接 ,构成 1 2 8年的ISM 序列。用功率谱及子波变换方法分析了ISM 的变化 ,指出 80年周期最突出 ,其次尚有 40年周期 ,8～ 1 0年周期及准 2年周期。分析表明 ,夏季风弱时中国东部夏季气温低 ,降水自北向南为负、正、负分布。夏季风强时 ,气温偏高 ,降水异常为正、负、正分布。对年际变化而言 ,降水与夏季风的关系要复杂一些 。

我国极端降水过程频数时空变化的季节差异

利用我国586个气象测站的逐日降水资料,在对每个站点极端降水过程阈值进行科学界定的基础上,揭示了近45年我国年和各季极端降水过程频数的线性变化趋势及其年际、年代际变化特征.结果表明:我国年和季节极端降水过程频数主要为趋势性变化,不同地区不同季节趋势性变化差异显著,极端降水量在降水总量的趋势变化中占主导地位;长江中下游、西北地区北部和西南地区西部年极端降水过程频数呈现趋势性增加,而我国华北等地区呈现趋势性减少,并且主要反映的是夏季的特征;年和季节极端降水过程频数具有明显不同的年际和年代际变化特征;我国各季极端降水过程时空变化异常型明显不同,但与极端日降水的时空变化是一致的.

ENSO与中国夏季年际气候异常关系的年代际变化

利用热带太平洋海表温度和中国降水和气温站点观测资料,通过滑动相关分析,揭示了ENSO与中国夏季年际气候异常关系的年代际变化事实。结果表明:ENSO与中国夏季年际气候异常的关系既有稳定的方面,又存在年代际变化特征。稳定的关系表现在:处于发展阶段的ENSO事件往往造成华北夏季降水偏少;处于衰减阶段的ENSO事件则易引起长江流域及江南地区夏季降水偏多。而二者关系的年代际变化表现在:1970年代中后期,处于发展阶段的ENSO事件引起的夏季降水异常在华南地区由偏少变为偏多,东北地区则由偏多变为偏少,而江淮地区偏多的现象不再明显,华北和东北夏季气温异常也由偏冷转变为偏暖,而华南则有偏冷趋势;处于衰减阶段的ENSO事件引起的夏季降水异常在华北地区由偏多变为偏少,江淮地区降水由偏少变为正常甚至偏多,华北夏季气温异常则由偏冷变为偏暖,长江流域和华南也有偏暖趋势。利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料合成分析表明,在不同的年代际背景下ENSO引起的东亚中高纬度大气环流异常型发生了明显改变是ENSO和降水气温关系发生年代际变化的原因。

年际和年代际气候变化的全球时空特征比较

利用 195 0 - 1998年全球海洋同化分析资料和全球大气再分析资料 ,分析比较了全球海气系统年际和年代际变化的主要时空特征 .结果表明 :1)全球上层海洋年际变化主要为位于热带太平洋的ENSO模态 ,年代际变化最显著区域在中纬度海洋、赤道外热带东太平洋和大西洋及南半球高纬度区域 ;2 )全球大气年际和年代际变化均主要位于中高纬地区尤其是两极地区 ,在年际时间尺度上 ,气温异常和气压异常没有明显的对应关系 ,但在年代际时间尺度上 ,气温增暖 (变冷 )常常伴随着气压的降低 (升高 ) ;3)在年际时间尺度上 ,发生在中高纬度陆地地区的大气年际变化和主要发生在热带海洋的上层海洋年际变化没有一致性的内在联系 ,前者主要表现为大气内部 (浑沌 )变化 ,而后者主要为热带海气相互作用产生的ENSO变化 ;4 )在年代际时间尺度上 ,全球海洋大气系统大约在 2 0世纪 70年代均一致性地经历了一次跃变 ,其结果导致 80年代以来 ,全球大范围地区 (尤其是两极和西伯利亚地区 )气温明显偏暖 ,赤道两侧的热带东太平洋、北美和南美西海岸及非洲西海岸等海域海表温度偏高 ,伴随着这种全球大范围背景增暖现象 ,青藏高原北部地区和格陵兰岛气温具有变冷趋势 。