Climate variability and predictability associated with the Indo-Pacific Oceanic Channel Dynamics in the CCSM4 Coupled System Model

An experiment using the Community Climate System Model(CCSM4), a participant of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase-5(CMIP5), is analyzed to assess the skills of this model in simulating and predicting the climate variabilities associated with the oceanic channel dynamics across the Indo-Pacific Oceans. The results of these analyses suggest that the model is able to reproduce the observed lag correlation between the oceanic anomalies in the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean and those in the cold tongue in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean at a time lag of 1 year. This success may be largely attributed to the successful simulation of the interannual variations of the Indonesian Throughflow, which carries the anomalies of the Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) into the western equatorial Pacific Ocean to produce subsurface temperature anomalies, which in turn propagate to the eastern equatorial Pacific to generate ENSO. This connection is termed the "oceanic channel dynamics" and is shown to be consistent with the observational analyses. However, the model simulates a weaker connection between the IOD and the interannual variability of the Indonesian Throughflow transport than found in the observations. In addition, the model overestimates the westerly wind anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific in the year following the IOD, which forces unrealistic upwelling Rossby waves in the western equatorial Pacific and downwelling Kelvin waves in the east. This assessment suggests that the CCSM4 coupled climate system has underestimated the oceanic channel dynamics and overestimated the atmospheric bridge processes.

Progress in the Development and Application of Climate Ocean Models and Ocean-Atmosphere Coupled Models in China

A review is presented about the development and application of climate ocean models and oceanatmosphere coupled models developed in China as well as a review of climate variability and climate change studies performed with these models. While the history of model development is briefly reviewed, emphasis has been put on the achievements made in the last five years. Advances in model development are described along with a summary on scientific issues addressed by using these models. The focus of the review is the climate ocean models and the associated coupled models, including both global and regional models, developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The progress of either coupled model development made by other institutions or climate modeling using internationally developed models also is reviewed.

LICOM3.0海洋模式中太平洋北赤道逆流的模拟偏差分析

本文用CORE-IAF(Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments–Interannual Forcing)外强迫场分别强迫LICOM3(LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model Version 3)和POP2(Parallel Ocean Program version 2)两个海洋模式,并分析了这两个模式中太平洋北赤道逆流(NECC)的模拟结果。我们发现LICOM3和POP2模拟的NECC强度均弱于实测,这和Sun et al.(2019)的研究结果一致,也进一步证明了海洋模式中NECC偏弱是CORE-IAF外强迫场造成的,海表风应力及对应的风应力旋度是海洋模式准确模拟NECC的最主要因子。同时,我们也分析了NECC的模拟在动力机制上的差别,这里的动力强迫项包括风应力项、平流项和余项。我们发现模式的外强迫场虽然相同,但是两个模式中各动力强迫项(风应力项、平流项和余项)对NECC模拟的影响并不完全相同。

On the Annual Cycle Characteristics of the Sea Surface Height in South China Sea

The annual cycle characteristics of the SSH in the South China Sea (SCS) are analyzed based on the Sea Surface Height (SSH) anomaly data from the TOPEX / POSEIDON-ERS altimeter data and the Parallel Ocean Climate Model (POCM) prediction. The results show that the distributions of the SSH anomalies of the SCS in January, March and May, are opposite to those in July, September and November respectively; In January (July) there is the SSH negative (positive) anomaly in the deep water basin and at the Luzon Strait, while there is positive (negative) anomaly on the most of continental shelves in the west and south of South China Sea; In March (September) the SSH anomalies are similar to those in January (July), although their magnitudes have decreased and a small positive (negative) anomaly appears in the center of the South China Sea; The amplitude of the SSH annual cycle reaches its maximum in the Northwest of the Luzon Island; The seasonal variability of the wind stress is dominant in the formation of the SSH seasonal variability.

The development of a new real-time subsurface mooring

Subsurface mooring allows researchers to measure the ocean properties such as water temperature,salinity,and velocity at several depths of the water column for a long period.Traditional subsurface mooring can release data only after recovered,which constrains the usage of the subsurface and deep layer data in the ocean and climate predictions.Recently,we developed a new real-time subsurface mooring(RTSM).Velocity profiles over upper 1000 m depth and layered data from sensors up to 5000 m depth can be realtime transmitted to the small surface buoy through underwater acoustic communication and then to the office through Beidou or Iridium satellite.To verify and refine their design and data transmission process,we deployed more than 30 sets of RTSMs in the western Pacific to do a 1-year continuous run during 2016–2018.The continuous running period of RTSM in a 1-year cycle can reach more than 260 days on average,and more than 95%of observed data can be successfully transmitted back to the office.Compared to the widely-used inductive coupling communication,wireless acoustic communication has been shown more applicable to the underwater sensor network with large depth intervals and long transmission distance to the surface.

Impacts of climatic and marine environmental variations on the spatial distribution of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

Ommastrephes bartramii is an ecologically dependent species and has great commercial values among the AsiaPacific countries. This squid widely inhabits the North Pacific, one of the most dynamic marine environments in the world, subjecting to multi-scale climatic events such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation（PDO）. Commercial fishery data from the Chinese squid-jigging fleets during 1995-2011 are used to evaluate the influences of climatic and oceanic environmental variations on the spatial distribution of O. bartramii. Significant interannual and seasonal variability are observed in the longitudinal and latitudinal gravity centers（LONG and LATG） of fishing ground of O. bartramii. The LATG mainly occurred in the waters with the suitable ranges of environmental variables estimated by the generalized additive model. The apparent north-south spatial shift in the annual LATG appeares to be associated with the PDO phenomenon and is closely related to the sea surface temperature（SST）and sea surface height（SSH） on the fishing ground, whereas the mixed layer depth（MLD） might contribute limited impacts to the distribution pattern of O. bartramii. The warm PDO regimes tend to yield cold SST and low SSH, resulting in a southward shift of LATG, while the cold PDO phases provid warm SST and elevated SSH,resulting in a northward shift of LATG. A regression model is developed to help understand and predict the fishing ground distributions of O. bartramii and improve the fishery management.

Progress in satellite gravity recovery from implemented CHAMP,GRACE and GOCE and future GRACE Follow-On missions

Firstly, the Earth＇s gravitational field from the past Challenging Minisatellite Payload （CHAMP） mission is determined using the energy conservation principle, the combined error model of the cumulative geoid height influenced by three instrument errors from the current Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment （GRACE） and future GRACE Follow-On missions is established based on the semi-analytical method, and the Earth＇s gravitational field from the executed Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer （GOCE） mission is recovered by the space-time-wise approach. Secondly, the cumulative geoid height errors are 1.727 × 10^-1 m, 1.839 × 10^-1 m and 9.025 × 10^ -2 m at degrees 70,120 and 250 from the implemented three-stage satellite gravity missions consisting of CHAMP, GRACE and GOCE, which preferably accord with those from the existing earth gravity field models involving EIGEN-CHAMP03S, EICEN-GRACE02S and GO_CONS GCF 2 DIR R1. The cumulative geoid height error is 6.847 × 10 ^-2 m at degree 250 from the future GRACE Follow-On mission. Finally, the complementarity among the four-stage satellite gravity missions including CHAMP, GRACE, GOCE and GRACE Follow-On is demonstrated contrastively.

Examination of seasonal variation of the equatorial undercurrent termination in the Eastern Pacifi c diagnosed by ECCO2

Seasonal variations of the equatorial undercurrent(EUC) termination in the Eastern Pacific,and their mechanism were examined using the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean,PhaseⅡ(ECCO2).The ECCO2 reproduced a weak and shallow eastward EUC east of the Galapagos Islands,with annual mean transport of half of EUC to the west of the Islands.The diagnosis of zonal momentum equation suggests that the zonal advection(nonlinear terms) drives the EUC beyond the Islands rather than the pressure gradient force.The EUC in the Far Eastern Pacific has the large st core velocity in boreal spring and the smallest one in boreal summer,and its volume transport exhibits two maxima in boreal spring and autumn.The seasonal variability of the EUC in the Eastern Pacific is dominated by the Kelvin and Rossby waves excited by the zonal winds anomalies in the central and Eastern Pacific that are associated with the seasonal relaxation or intensification of the trade wind.In the Far Eastern Pacific to the east of 120°W,the eastward propagation Kelvin waves play a dominate role in the seasonal cycle of the EUC,results in a semiannual fluctuation with double peaks in boreal spring and autumn.A construction of water mass budget suggests that approximately 24.1% of the EUC water east of 100°W has upwelled to the mixed layer by0.35 m/d.The estimated upwelling is stronge st during boreal autumn and weake st during boreal winter.It is also found that approximately 42.6% of the EUC turns westward to feed the south equatorial current(SEC),13.2% flows north of the equator,and 20.1% flows south of the equator,mainly contributing to Peru-Chile undercurrent.

The Baseline Evaluation of LASG/IAP Climate System Ocean Model (LICOM) Version 2

The baseline performance of the latest version （version 2） of an intermediate resolution, stand-alone climate oceanic general circulation model, called LASG/IAP （State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics/Institute of Atmospheric Physics） Climate system Ocean Model （LICOM）, has been evaluated against the observation by using the main metrics from Griffies et al. in 2009. In general, the errors of LICOM2 in the water properties and in the circulation are comparable with the models of Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments （COREs）. Some common biases are still evident in the present version, such as the cold bias in the eastern Facific cold tongue, the warm biases off the east coast of the basins~ the weak poleward heat transport in the Atlantic, and the relatively large biases in the Arctic Ocean. A unique systematic bias occurs in LICOM2 over the Southern Ocean, compared with CORE models. It seems that this bias may be related to the sea ice process around the Antarctic continent.

Nonstationary fuzzy forecasting of wind and wave climate in very long-term scales

Global climate change may have serious impact on human activities in coastal and other areas.Climate change may affect the degree of storminess and,hence,change the wind-driven ocean wave climate.This may affect the risks associated with maritime activities such as shipping and offshore oil and gas.So,there is a recognized need to understand better how climate change will affect such processes.Typically,such understanding comes from future projections of the wind and wave climate from numerical climate models and from the stochastic modelling of such projections.This work investigates the applicability of a recently proposed nonstationary fuzzy modelling to wind and wave climatic simulations.According to this,fuzzy inference models(FIS)are coupled with nonstationary time series modelling,providing us with less biased climatic estimates.Two long-term datasets for an area in the North Atlantic Ocean are used in the present study,namely NORA10(57 years)and ExWaCli(30 years in the present and 30 years in the future).Two distinct experiments have been performed to simulate future values of the time series in a climatic scale.The assessment of the simulations by means of the actual values kept for comparison purposes gives very good results.

The influence of calculation error of hourly marine meteorological parameter on building energy consumption calculation

The ocean is a crucial area for future economic development.The marine environment has high energy-efficient and ecological requirements for building construction.Meteorological parameters are the key basis for the analysis and design of building energy efficiency.The lack of meteorological parameters for energy efficiency,particularly hourly data,under oceanic climatic conditions is a universal problem.The appropriate calculation methods of hourly meteorological parameters under oceanic climatic conditions are explored in this study.The impact of the calculation errors of the hourly meteorological parameters on building energy consumption is also analyzed.Three key meteorological parameters are selected:temperature,humidity,and wind speed.Five hourly calculations methods,including linear interpolation,cubic spline interpolation,pieceated three-Hermite interpolation,Akima interpolation,and radial basis function interpolation,are selected to calculate the error of the difference method,with Xiamen,Haikou,and Sanya as the locations of meteorological research.Appropriate interpolation methods are selected for the three parameters,and the seasonal and regional characteristics of the errors of each parameter are compared.Different interpolation methods should be selected for different meteorological parameters in different seasons.The error data of the three parameters of different magnitudes are constructed.A quantitative relationship between the sum of squares due to error of the three meteorological parameters and the rate of change of cooling energy consumption is established.The hourly calculation errors of meteorological parameters have an important impact on the calculation of dynamic energy consumption.The energy consumption differences caused by the errors of different parameters are significant.Obvious regional and seasonal differences also exist.This research strengthens the research foundation of building energy consumption calculation under oceanic climate conditions.

Processes of coastal ecosystem carbon sequestration and approaches for increasing carbon sink

The oceans are the largest carbon pools on Earth, and play the role of a "buffer" in climate change. Blue carbon, the carbon(mainly organic carbon) captured by marine ecosystems, is one of the important mechanisms of marine carbon storage.Blue carbon was initially recognized only in the form of visible coastal plant carbon sequestration. In fact, microorganisms(phytoplankton, bacteria, archaea, viruses, and protozoa), which did not receive much attention in the past, account for more than 90% of the total marine biomass and are the main contributors to blue carbon. Chinese coastal seas, equivalent to 1/3 of China's total land area, have a huge carbon sink potential needing urgently research and development. In this paper, we focus on the processes and mechanisms of coastal ocean's carbon sequestration and the approaches for increasing that sequestration. We discuss the structures of coastal ecosystems, the processes of carbon cycle, and the mechanisms of carbon sequestration. Using the evolution of coastal ocean's carbon sinks in sedimentary records over geologic times, we also discuss the possible effects of natural processes and anthropogenic activities on marine carbon sinks. Finally, we discuss the prospect of using carbon sequestration engineering for increasing coastal ocean's carbon storage capacity.