Analysis and forecasts of investment scale and structure in upstream sector for oil companies based on system dynamics

Oil and gas exploration and production is the most important and key segment in the whole business chain of the petroleum industry.Therefore,oil companies always put much emphasis on making scientific and reasonable decisions about investment scale and structure in the upstream sector,so that they can minimise business risks and obtain high returns.According to the system dynamics theories and methods and based on the actual results from an oil company＇s practice in China,a system dynamics model is built in this paper for analyzing and forecasting the upstream investment scale and structure for an oil company.This model was used to analyze the investment effect of a large oil company in China, and the results showed that the total upstream investment scale will decline slowly in a short period and the investment proportion of different parts should be adjusted if some influencing factors are taken into account.This application practice was compared with the actual data and indicated that the system dynamics（SD） model presented in this paper is a useful tool for analyzing and forecasting of upstream investment scale and structure of oil companies in their investment decisions.

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Analysis of the world deepwater oil and gas exploration situation

The global trends in deepwater oil and gas exploration,characteristics of deepwater oil and gas discovery,and layout of deepwater oil and gas exploration business by seven major international oil companies are systematically analyzed using commercial databases(e.g.S&P Global and Rystad)and public information of oil companies.The deepwater area is currently the most important domain for global oil and gas exploration and discovery,with the most discoveries and reserves in passive continental margin basins.The deepwater discoveries have the greatest contribution to the total newly discovered oil and gas reserves in the sea areas,with an increasing number of lithological reservoirs discovered,and oil and gas discoveries mainly distributed in the Mesozoic–Cenozoic.The seven major international oil companies are widely active in various aspects of deepwater oil and gas exploration and development,and play a leading role.Based on years of theoretical understanding of global oil and gas geology and resource evaluation,it is proposed that favorable deepwater exploration areas in the future will mainly focus on three major areas:the Atlantic coast,the Indian Ocean periphery,and the Arctic Ocean periphery.Six suggestions are put forward for expanding overseas deepwater oil and gas exploration business:first,expand the sources for obtaining multi-user seismic data and improve the scientific selection of deepwater exploration areas;second,increase efforts to obtain deepwater exploration projects in key areas;third,adopt various methods to access into/exit from resource licenses flexibly;fourth,acquire licenses with large equity and operate in“dual-exploration”model;fifth,strengthen cooperation with leading international oil companies in deepwater technology;and sixth,improve business operation capabilities and gradually transform from“non-operators”to“operators”.

Global oil and gas development in 2022:Situation,trends and enlightenment

Through analysis of four aspects,including the distribution and production of global oil and gas fields,the distribution and changes of remaining recoverable reserves,the differences in oil and gas production between regions/countries,and the development potential of oil and gas fields with production capacity not built and to be built,this paper presents the situation and trends of global oil and gas development in 2022.It is found that,in 2022,oil and gas fields are widely distributed worldwide,and upstream production activities continue to recover;the oil and gas reserves decrease slightly year on year,and the oil and gas reserves in sea areas increase significantly;the oil and gas production increases continuously,and the key resource countries make a significant contribution in oil and gas production growth;the oil and gas fields with production capacity not built and to be built hold abundant reserves,and their development potential will be gradually released with the economic benefits increase.Further analysis is conducted from the perspectives of global oil and gas resources continuity,geopolitical risks,potential of international cooperation,and upgrade of unconventional oil and gas technology.Finally,in view of core business domains and strategies under the new situation,the Chinese oil companies are recommended to:(1)keep a foothold in onshore conventional oil and gas development by virtue of their comparative advantages and learning from other’s experience in cooperation;(2)carry out pilot tests on development adjustment,and deepen the international cooperation in enhanced oil/gas recovery;(3)improve the oil and gas operation capabilities in sea areas to transform from follower as minority shareholder to joint venture and then to independent operations;and(4)seek appropriate ways for shale oil/gas development to reduce the dependence on foreign oil and gas.

Assessment of and Countermeasures against International Political Risk for Chinese Oil Companies

Considering the circumstances of Chinese oil companies and the latest development of international politics and world oil situation, this paper analyzes the implication and main factors of international political risk for Chinese oil companies, and presents the principles, mode and scoring method for the assessment of international political risk. Strategies and suggestions to manage international political risk in their overseas business are provided for Chinese oil companies.

Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment of Transnational Operation Environment for Chinese Oil Companies

A comprehensive method was developed to assess the transnational operation environment in host countries for Chinese oil companies. This method includes an assessment criterion system of the environment, which is to be scored by the experts. Analytical Hierarchy Process （AHP） and fuzzy mathematical methods were used to make evaluation and get the assessment result and ranking of three host countries.

Progress in Foreign Cooperation of China's Oil Industry

In 2015, China＇s oil companies＇ overseas equity oil has grown steadily to approximately 150 million tonnes. State-owned oil majors have turned from scale-oriented to profit-oriented by adjusting investment speed and optimizing portfolio to improve operating profit of overseas business. The overseas investment of private oil companies mainly focused on two fields： the first is to invest in countries along the Belt and Road （the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st-century Maritime Silk Road）, and the second is to enter the oil industry of the developed countries by M＆A. Limited progress has been made in ＆e foreign cooperation of domestic upstream sector, while new changes emerged in the foreign cooperation of upstream sector. Some planned projects were postponed or delayed due to domestic or international market changes. Private oil companies, however, began to cooperate with foreign companies in the downstream sector after the former got the right to import crude oil.

Chinese Oil Companies＇ Overseas Cooperation in 2016

The paper analyzed the development and features of China's oil companies' overseas business in 2016.Despite the plummeting crude price and a weak global economy,these companies managed to do well in foreign countries.They steadily increased their shares of oil and gas in overseas oil and gas projects with their distinctive and unique ways:the three state-owned oil companies had focused on the countries involved in the One-BeltOne-Road Initiative,and others had been stressed more on international cooperation in a broader sense and areas.The small-and middle-scale companies had been matured and grew during the process.The central and local governments also played indispensable roles by providing need support for the cooperations.

Challenges of Oil Companies' Upstream Business under Low Oil Price Condition

Currently, oil companies face the ＂new normal＂ condition that the profit of their upstream business is shrinking with the plunge of oil price. This problem challenges the operation and management of the upstream business. Therefore, it is essential to find out ＆e new approaches and key points of work, to achieve the goal of realizing a quality and sustainable development. From ten aspects, this paper discusses ＆e challenges facing ＆e upstream business of oil companies and puts forward corresponding roadmaps and strategies.

Chinese Companies Set Sights on Asia-Pacific Oil Assets

Fossil fuels may be out of fashion,but sales of foreignowned resources across Asia are expected to attract a broad mix of bidders.Some of Asia’s biggest foreignowned oil and gas assets,worth more than US$40 billion,are to be sold in 2017,with potential bidders expected to include Chinese energy companies and sovereign funds.Assets to be sold include US-based Chevron’s US$1billion(0.94 billion euros)joint ownership stake with China’s state-owned CNOOC in an offshore oil field.

Influence of Board Mechanisms on Corporate Social Responsibility Disclosures in Nigeria: A Study of Oil and Gas Sector of the Economy

The study examined the influence of board mechanisms on corporate social responsibility disclosure among oil and gas quoted companies in Nigeria for ten(10)years period(2012-2021).Board mechanisms variables of board independence,board size as well as board gender diversity were analyzed to determine their influence on corporate social responsibility disclosures.Data obtained from the financial statement of various sampled companies were suitably analyzed with the help of descriptive statistics,correlation as well as regression analysis by making use of E-view(9.0)econometric packages.Regression result reveals that board independence has significant and negative influence on corporate social responsibility disclosures while board size and board gender diversity have insignificant and negative influence on corporate social responsibility disclosures of various companies.The study therefore arrived at a conclusion that board independence on the board brings about improvement on corporate social responsibility disclosure among quoted oil and gas companies in Nigeria.

Evolutionary Game on Oil and Gas Companies' Pollution Treatment

This paper presents a dynamic model of pollution treatment strategies,driven by the bargaining relationships between governments,oil and gas companies and local residents.The results show that government plays a dominating role and government environmental policies have significant impact on other two parties' behavior.To achieve better pollution treatment in the future,we put forward the following suggestions.An improvement in the legal system is required,and the legal enforcement needs to be strengthened.In terms of pollution treatment,responsibilities and obligations of these three parties need to be clearly defined.A wellfunctioned reward and penalties system needs to be established for minimizing the environment damage in the future.

The Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Iranian Oil and Gas Industry Planning:A Survey of Business Continuity Challenges

The Covid-19 pandemic has severely affected various aspects of life,and its compounding and cascading impacts have been observed in most industries and firms.The oil and gas(O&G)industry was among the first to experience the impacts as the pandemic began due to the global economic recession and a sharp decline in demand for oil.The pandemic revealed major risk management and business continuity challenges and uncovered some of the vulnerabilities of the O&G industry and its major companies during a prolonged global disaster.Examining and understanding how the Covid-19 pandemic impacted the O&G sector in different countries,considering their unique circumstances,can provide important lessons for managing the current and future similar events.This study investigated various impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic on the O&G industry using Iran's Pars Oil and Gas Company(POGC)as a case study.Data were collected through indepth interviews with key managers of the company.Qualitative methods,specifically thematic analysis,were used to analyze the data.Findings of this study provide further insights into how the pandemic impacted the operations,risks,and business continuity of the POCG.The results show that the pandemic caused significant operational,financial,and legal impacts by disrupting routine maintenance,reducing the availability of human resources under the public health measures and mobility restrictions,increasing processing and delivery times,increasing costs and decreasing revenues,and delaying contractual obligations.

The energy transition of the Chinese national oil companies towards renewables:An opportunity or a bottleneck?

Renewable energy is the fastest growing energy source.China,the world’s biggest energy consumer,is also the largest investor in renewable energy.Although it is expected that oil will continue to dominate the energy mix in China and in the world by 2040,a transition towards a renewable model in the energy sector is unfolding,which has also been acknowledged by international oil companies(IOCs).Then,how the Chinese national oil companies(NOCs)approach such a transition becomes important–to what extent their investment transform and what are the pressures and influences behind the transformation.This paper investigates the positions and decisions taken by the Chinese NOCs,through comparing the similarities and differences between these NOCs and IOCs.A neo-Gramscian theoretical framework that considers environmental governance through dynamics at material,organisational,and discursive levels is used to examine the Chinese NOCs’energy transition.We find that the Chinese NOCs’energy transition is determined by:materially,economic profits;organisationally,the administrative environmental governance structure that copes with the market competition against IOCs and other stateowned companies;and discursively,the political concept of ecological civilisation.

CNPC,CNOOC and SINOPEC in Iraq:Successful Start and Ambitious Cooperation Plan

When China started to look for oil overseas in the 1990s,Iraq was struggling against the economic sanctions after the first Gulf War.At that time,China and Iraq had no chance for oil cooperation until the second half of the 1990s when the United Nations Security Council(UNSC)adopted the program of oil for food in 1996,which was in the signing of the first oil contract on the Al-Ahdab oil field.But this deal faced many problems due to the conflict between the Iraqi government and the UNSC at that time.The real beginning was after American invasion of Iraq in 2003,when the Chinese oil companies participated in the first and second biddings offered by the Iraqi Oil Ministry and the Chinese oil companies.Especially CNPC won very important contracts,when it signed contracts on big oil fields in the southeastern and southern parts of Iraq.In addition,the Chinese importing oil from Iraq started to increase rapidly during the last few years,and it is expected to reach high levels in the near future.