In order to achieve dynamical optimization of mobility load balancing,we analyze the conflict between mobility load balancing and mobility robustness optimization caused by the improper operation of handover parameter...In order to achieve dynamical optimization of mobility load balancing,we analyze the conflict between mobility load balancing and mobility robustness optimization caused by the improper operation of handover parameters.To this end,a method of Handover Parameters Adjustment for Conflict Avoidance(HPACA)is proposed.Considering the movement of users,HPCAC can dynamically adjust handover range to optimize the mobility load balancing.The movement of users is an important factor of handover,which has a dramatic impact on system performance.The numerical evaluation results show the proposed approach outperforms the existing method in terms of throughput,call blocking ratio,load balancing index,radio link failure ratio,ping-pong handover ratio and call dropping ratio.展开更多
A new path planning method for mobile robots in globally unknown environment with moving obstacles is pre- sented. With an autoregressive (AR) model to predict the future positions of moving obstacles, and the predict...A new path planning method for mobile robots in globally unknown environment with moving obstacles is pre- sented. With an autoregressive (AR) model to predict the future positions of moving obstacles, and the predicted position taken as the next position of moving obstacles, a motion path in dynamic uncertain environment is planned by means of an on-line real-time path planning technique based on polar coordinates in which the desirable direction angle is taken into consideration as an optimization index. The effectiveness, feasibility, high stability, perfect performance of obstacle avoidance, real-time and optimization capability are demonstrated by simulation examples.展开更多
Due to the complexity of thickness and shape synthetical adjustment system and the difficulties to build a mathematical model,a thickness and shape synthetical adjustment scheme on DC mill based on dynamic nerve-fuzzy...Due to the complexity of thickness and shape synthetical adjustment system and the difficulties to build a mathematical model,a thickness and shape synthetical adjustment scheme on DC mill based on dynamic nerve-fuzzy control was put forward,and a self-organizing fuzzy control model was established.The structure of the network can be optimized dynamically.In the course of studying,the network can automatically adjust its structure based on the specific questions and make its structure the optimal.The input and output of the network are fuzzy sets,and the trained network can complete the composite relation,the fuzzy inference.For decreasing the off-line training time of BP network,the fuzzy sets are encoded.The simulation results indicate that the self-organizing fuzzy control based on dynamic neural network is better than traditional decoupling PID control.展开更多
Objective To explore the dynamic changes of the cellular immune function in severe infection after liver transplantation,and to guide the individualized immunology adjustment. Methods 378 cases of liver transplantatio...Objective To explore the dynamic changes of the cellular immune function in severe infection after liver transplantation,and to guide the individualized immunology adjustment. Methods 378 cases of liver transplantation were analyzed retrospectively. Seventy - four cases ( infection group) suffered serious infection,including 54 cases cured ( cure group) ,20 cases died (展开更多
The nonlinear least square adjustment is a head object studied in technology fields. The paper studies on the non derivative solution to the nonlinear dynamic least square adjustment and puts forward a new algorithm m...The nonlinear least square adjustment is a head object studied in technology fields. The paper studies on the non derivative solution to the nonlinear dynamic least square adjustment and puts forward a new algorithm model and its solution model. The method has little calculation load and is simple. This opens up a theoretical method to solve the linear dynamic least square adjustment.展开更多
Water markets even though not perfect and require a lot of effort to establish are considered as a robust tool to address water management issues around the world. However, the existing literature does not provide an ...Water markets even though not perfect and require a lot of effort to establish are considered as a robust tool to address water management issues around the world. However, the existing literature does not provide an optimal water resource management policy. To create a perfect water market, the government needs to identify the potential number of suppliers/producers and consumers of water against various extraction/supply/production rates of water, i.e., to identify a supply and a demand curve for number of suppliers/producers of water against each production rate in economy. This article presents a theory which is practically applicable for an optimal dynamical water resource management policy (JEL H20, H23, H27).展开更多
The disparity between the postoperative outcomes of rhinoplasty and the expected results frequently necessitates secondary or multiple surgeries as a compensatory measure,greatly diminishing patient satisfaction.Howev...The disparity between the postoperative outcomes of rhinoplasty and the expected results frequently necessitates secondary or multiple surgeries as a compensatory measure,greatly diminishing patient satisfaction.However,there is renewed optimism for addressing these challenges through the innovative realm of Four-Dimensional(4D)printing.This groundbreaking technology enables three-dimensional objects with shape-memory properties to undergo predictable transformations under specific external stimuli.Consequently,implants crafted using 4D printing offer significant potential for dynamic adjustments.Inspired by worms in our research,we harnessed 4D printing to fabricate a Shape-Memory Polyurethane(SMPU)for use as a nasal augmentation prosthesis.The choice of SMPU was guided by its Glass Transition Temperature(Tg),which falls within the acceptable temperature range for the human body.This attribute allowed for temperature-responsive intraoperative self-deformation and postoperative remodeling.Our chosen animal model for experimentation was rabbits.Taking into account the anatomical structure of the rabbit nose,we designed and produced nasal augmentation prostheses with superior biocompatibility.These prostheses were then surgically implanted in a minimally invasive manner into the rabbit noses.Remarkably,they exhibited successful temperature-controlled in-surgery self-deformation according to the predetermined shape and non-invasive remodeling within a mere 9 days post-surgery.Subsequent histological evaluations confirmed the practical viability of these prostheses in a living organism.Our research findings posit that worm-inspired 4D-printed SMPU nasal prostheses hold significant promise for achieving dynamic aesthetic adjustments.展开更多
Pulsed MIG welding is suitable for aluminum alloys welding, because spray transfer and excellent profile can be arrived during whole welding current range, and the energy of droplet can be controlled to overcome losin...Pulsed MIG welding is suitable for aluminum alloys welding, because spray transfer and excellent profile can be arrived during whole welding current range, and the energy of droplet can be controlled to overcome losing of alloy elements with lower melting and steam point by controlling pulse current and pulse time. Because of the special physic properties of aluminum alloys, there are different requirements for pulsed MIG welding between starting arc short circuit and drop transfer short circuit, pulse period and base period. In order to satisfy the need of aluminum alloys MIG welding, self adjusting dynamic characteristics are designed to output different dynamic characteristics in different welding startes. The self adjusting dynamic characteristics of pulsed MIG welding are achieved through a short circuit controller and a dynamic electronic inductor. The welding machine(AL MIG 350) with self adjusting dynamic characteristics has a high rate of successfully starting arc up to 96%, and the short circuit time during transfer is less than 1 ms, in the mean time, the arc is stiffness, spatter is low and weld appearance is good.展开更多
An RF-UCard system is a contactless smartcard system with multiple chip operating systems and multiple applications. A multi-card collision occurs when more than one card within the reader’s read field and thus lower...An RF-UCard system is a contactless smartcard system with multiple chip operating systems and multiple applications. A multi-card collision occurs when more than one card within the reader’s read field and thus lowers the efficiency of the system. This paper presents a novel and enhanced algorithm to solve the multi-card collision problems in an RF-UCard system. The algorithm was originally inspired from framed ALOHA-based anti-collision algorithms applied in RFID systems. To maximize the system efficiency, a synchronous dynamic adjusting (SDA) scheme that adjusts both the frame size in the reader and the response probability in cards is developed and evaluated. Based on some mathematical results derived from the Poisson process and the occupancy problem, the algorithm takes the estimated card quantity and the new arriving cards in the current read cycle into consideration to adjust the frame size for the next read cycle. Also it changes the card response probability according to the request commands sent from the reader. Simulation results show that SDA outperforms other ALOHA-based anti-collision algorithms applied in RFID systems.展开更多
The increasing penetration of wind power presents many technical challenges to power system operations. An important challenge is the need of voltage control to maintain the terminal voltage of a wind plant to make it...The increasing penetration of wind power presents many technical challenges to power system operations. An important challenge is the need of voltage control to maintain the terminal voltage of a wind plant to make it a PV bus like conventional generators with excitation control. In the previous work for controlling wind plant, especially the Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) system, the proportional-integral (PI) controllers are popularly applied. These approaches usually need to tune the PI controllers to obtain control gains as a tradeoff or compromise among various operating conditions. In this paper, a new voltage control approach based on a different philosophy is presented. In the proposed approach, the PI control gains for the DFIG system are dynamically adjusted based on the dynamic, continuous sensitivity which essentially indicates the dynamic relationship between the change of control gains and the desired output voltage. Hence, this control approach does not require any good estimation of fixed control gains because it has the self-learning mechanism via the dynamic sensitivity. This also gives the plug-and-play feature of DFIG controllers to make it promising in utility practices. Simulation results verify that the proposed approach performs as expected under various operating conditions.展开更多
Currently,the operational performance assessment system in the power market primarily focuses on power generation and electricity retail companies,lacking a system tailored to the operational characteristics of power ...Currently,the operational performance assessment system in the power market primarily focuses on power generation and electricity retail companies,lacking a system tailored to the operational characteristics of power generation/selling integrated companies.Therefore,this article proposes an assessment index system for assessing the operational performance of a power generation/selling integrated company,encompassing three dimensions:basic capacity,development potential,and external environment.A dynamic proportional adjustment coefficient is designed,along with a subjective and objective weighting model for assessment indexes based on a combined weightingmethod.Subsequently,the operational performance of an integrated company is assessed using extension theory.The results in the case study demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed dynamic proportional adjustment coefficient.展开更多
The reliability factors of a dragline stripping system were analyzed using system reliability theory to improve its reliability and ensure the stability of surface coal mine production.The relationship between the dra...The reliability factors of a dragline stripping system were analyzed using system reliability theory to improve its reliability and ensure the stability of surface coal mine production.The relationship between the dragline scheduled stripping volume with both the weighted average thickness of the coal seam and the height of the blast casting bench was derived.The results show that the reliability of the dragline stripping system decreases with the weighted average thickness of the coal seam and increases with a reduced casting blast bench height and monthly raw coal production capacity.Furthermore,the dynamic monthly advance distance of the dragline stripping system was found,a new concept of the dragline stripping system reliability and measurement methodology were proposed,and a prediction model for the dragline production capacity was established using a generalized regression neural network.In addition,the steps and processes of the reliability were improved.The study on the Heidaigou surface mine shows that the height of the casting blast bench should be reduced to 10.5 m when its raw coal production capacity is improved from 20 to 30 Mt/a.During the normal production of surface coal,the system reliability can be improved by dynamically determining the weighted average coal seam thickness,accurately predicting the dragline production capacity,and taking other corresponding measures.展开更多
In the strip rolling process, shape control system possesses the characteristics of nonlinearity, strong coupling, time delay and time variation. Based on self adapting Elman dynamic recursion network prediction model...In the strip rolling process, shape control system possesses the characteristics of nonlinearity, strong coupling, time delay and time variation. Based on self adapting Elman dynamic recursion network prediction model, the fuzzy control method was used to control the shape on four-high cold mill. The simulation results showed that the system can be applied to real time on line control of the shape.展开更多
In this paper, we present a power adjustment scheme to dynamically enlarge and shrink power coverage to speed up tag identification in an RFID system. By dividing a TDMA frame into time slots, the proposed power adjus...In this paper, we present a power adjustment scheme to dynamically enlarge and shrink power coverage to speed up tag identification in an RFID system. By dividing a TDMA frame into time slots, the proposed power adjustment scheme can adaptively increase or decrease the transmission power of a reader. Specifically, due to the contention for a TDMA slot from numerous tags, three states of a slot could exist;they are respectively referred to as successful, collided, and idle states. An adjustment factor based on the three states is designed to dynamically adjust the transmission power of a reader. The design of the adjustment factor considers two different aspects. When the number of idle state far exceeds the number of collided state, the first aspect will enlarge the power such that more tags within the coverage can be concurrently identified. On the other hand, when the number of idle state is much smaller than the number of collided state, the second aspect will shrink the power such that the number of tags within the coverage is significantly reduced. The proposed power adjustment scheme is simulated using NS-3. In the simulation, we design three different topologies which place tags in three distributions, uniform, random, and hotspot. From the simulation results, we demonstrate that the proposed power adjustment scheme can speed up the tag identification and save energy consumption, particularly when a large number of tags are placed in hotspot distribution.展开更多
The paper intends to analyze economic factors that influence electricity consumption in the OECD economies. A special interest in this context is given to spillover effects of trade on electricity consumption. For thi...The paper intends to analyze economic factors that influence electricity consumption in the OECD economies. A special interest in this context is given to spillover effects of trade on electricity consumption. For this purpose, a model is constructed that using a dynamic panel study approach. The model is estimated in a GMM framework in which a dynamic procedure is conducted along the balanced growth path for electricity consumption in each economy. In advance, the long run dynamic behavior of prices, GDP, and trade induced spillover variables is determined. In a further step, the short run dynamic mechanism is pursued by estimating the partial adjustment dynamic coefficient on the target level of electricity consumption. The analysis is conducted for industrial, as well as residential electricity consumption. Alternatively, the same procedure is estimated by the application of a fixed period model. The model provides a benchmark tool for electricity policy decisions and for electricity consumption projections.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No.61071118the National Basic Research Program of China(973 Program)under Grant No.2012CB316004+1 种基金Special Fund of Chongqing Key Laboratory(CSTC)Chongqing Municipal Education Commission’s Science and Technology Research Project under Grant No.KJ111506
文摘In order to achieve dynamical optimization of mobility load balancing,we analyze the conflict between mobility load balancing and mobility robustness optimization caused by the improper operation of handover parameters.To this end,a method of Handover Parameters Adjustment for Conflict Avoidance(HPACA)is proposed.Considering the movement of users,HPCAC can dynamically adjust handover range to optimize the mobility load balancing.The movement of users is an important factor of handover,which has a dramatic impact on system performance.The numerical evaluation results show the proposed approach outperforms the existing method in terms of throughput,call blocking ratio,load balancing index,radio link failure ratio,ping-pong handover ratio and call dropping ratio.
文摘A new path planning method for mobile robots in globally unknown environment with moving obstacles is pre- sented. With an autoregressive (AR) model to predict the future positions of moving obstacles, and the predicted position taken as the next position of moving obstacles, a motion path in dynamic uncertain environment is planned by means of an on-line real-time path planning technique based on polar coordinates in which the desirable direction angle is taken into consideration as an optimization index. The effectiveness, feasibility, high stability, perfect performance of obstacle avoidance, real-time and optimization capability are demonstrated by simulation examples.
文摘Due to the complexity of thickness and shape synthetical adjustment system and the difficulties to build a mathematical model,a thickness and shape synthetical adjustment scheme on DC mill based on dynamic nerve-fuzzy control was put forward,and a self-organizing fuzzy control model was established.The structure of the network can be optimized dynamically.In the course of studying,the network can automatically adjust its structure based on the specific questions and make its structure the optimal.The input and output of the network are fuzzy sets,and the trained network can complete the composite relation,the fuzzy inference.For decreasing the off-line training time of BP network,the fuzzy sets are encoded.The simulation results indicate that the self-organizing fuzzy control based on dynamic neural network is better than traditional decoupling PID control.
文摘Objective To explore the dynamic changes of the cellular immune function in severe infection after liver transplantation,and to guide the individualized immunology adjustment. Methods 378 cases of liver transplantation were analyzed retrospectively. Seventy - four cases ( infection group) suffered serious infection,including 54 cases cured ( cure group) ,20 cases died (
文摘The nonlinear least square adjustment is a head object studied in technology fields. The paper studies on the non derivative solution to the nonlinear dynamic least square adjustment and puts forward a new algorithm model and its solution model. The method has little calculation load and is simple. This opens up a theoretical method to solve the linear dynamic least square adjustment.
文摘Water markets even though not perfect and require a lot of effort to establish are considered as a robust tool to address water management issues around the world. However, the existing literature does not provide an optimal water resource management policy. To create a perfect water market, the government needs to identify the potential number of suppliers/producers and consumers of water against various extraction/supply/production rates of water, i.e., to identify a supply and a demand curve for number of suppliers/producers of water against each production rate in economy. This article presents a theory which is practically applicable for an optimal dynamical water resource management policy (JEL H20, H23, H27).
基金financially supported by the talent reserve program of the first hospital of Jilin University(Grant Nos.JDYY-TRP-2024002)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.82372391,82001971,82102358 and 82202698)+4 种基金Scientific Development Program of Jilin Province(Grant Nos.20200403088SF,20220204117YY,YDZJ202201ZYTS086,20200404202YY and 20200802008GH)Program of Jilin Provincial Health Department(Grant No.2020SC2T064 and 2020SC2T065)Project of"Medical+X"Interdisciplinary Innovation Team of Norman Bethune Health Science Center of Jilin University(Grant No.2022JBGS06)China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2021M701384)Bethune Plan of Jilin University(Grant No.2022B27,2022B03).
文摘The disparity between the postoperative outcomes of rhinoplasty and the expected results frequently necessitates secondary or multiple surgeries as a compensatory measure,greatly diminishing patient satisfaction.However,there is renewed optimism for addressing these challenges through the innovative realm of Four-Dimensional(4D)printing.This groundbreaking technology enables three-dimensional objects with shape-memory properties to undergo predictable transformations under specific external stimuli.Consequently,implants crafted using 4D printing offer significant potential for dynamic adjustments.Inspired by worms in our research,we harnessed 4D printing to fabricate a Shape-Memory Polyurethane(SMPU)for use as a nasal augmentation prosthesis.The choice of SMPU was guided by its Glass Transition Temperature(Tg),which falls within the acceptable temperature range for the human body.This attribute allowed for temperature-responsive intraoperative self-deformation and postoperative remodeling.Our chosen animal model for experimentation was rabbits.Taking into account the anatomical structure of the rabbit nose,we designed and produced nasal augmentation prostheses with superior biocompatibility.These prostheses were then surgically implanted in a minimally invasive manner into the rabbit noses.Remarkably,they exhibited successful temperature-controlled in-surgery self-deformation according to the predetermined shape and non-invasive remodeling within a mere 9 days post-surgery.Subsequent histological evaluations confirmed the practical viability of these prostheses in a living organism.Our research findings posit that worm-inspired 4D-printed SMPU nasal prostheses hold significant promise for achieving dynamic aesthetic adjustments.
文摘Pulsed MIG welding is suitable for aluminum alloys welding, because spray transfer and excellent profile can be arrived during whole welding current range, and the energy of droplet can be controlled to overcome losing of alloy elements with lower melting and steam point by controlling pulse current and pulse time. Because of the special physic properties of aluminum alloys, there are different requirements for pulsed MIG welding between starting arc short circuit and drop transfer short circuit, pulse period and base period. In order to satisfy the need of aluminum alloys MIG welding, self adjusting dynamic characteristics are designed to output different dynamic characteristics in different welding startes. The self adjusting dynamic characteristics of pulsed MIG welding are achieved through a short circuit controller and a dynamic electronic inductor. The welding machine(AL MIG 350) with self adjusting dynamic characteristics has a high rate of successfully starting arc up to 96%, and the short circuit time during transfer is less than 1 ms, in the mean time, the arc is stiffness, spatter is low and weld appearance is good.
文摘An RF-UCard system is a contactless smartcard system with multiple chip operating systems and multiple applications. A multi-card collision occurs when more than one card within the reader’s read field and thus lowers the efficiency of the system. This paper presents a novel and enhanced algorithm to solve the multi-card collision problems in an RF-UCard system. The algorithm was originally inspired from framed ALOHA-based anti-collision algorithms applied in RFID systems. To maximize the system efficiency, a synchronous dynamic adjusting (SDA) scheme that adjusts both the frame size in the reader and the response probability in cards is developed and evaluated. Based on some mathematical results derived from the Poisson process and the occupancy problem, the algorithm takes the estimated card quantity and the new arriving cards in the current read cycle into consideration to adjust the frame size for the next read cycle. Also it changes the card response probability according to the request commands sent from the reader. Simulation results show that SDA outperforms other ALOHA-based anti-collision algorithms applied in RFID systems.
文摘The increasing penetration of wind power presents many technical challenges to power system operations. An important challenge is the need of voltage control to maintain the terminal voltage of a wind plant to make it a PV bus like conventional generators with excitation control. In the previous work for controlling wind plant, especially the Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) system, the proportional-integral (PI) controllers are popularly applied. These approaches usually need to tune the PI controllers to obtain control gains as a tradeoff or compromise among various operating conditions. In this paper, a new voltage control approach based on a different philosophy is presented. In the proposed approach, the PI control gains for the DFIG system are dynamically adjusted based on the dynamic, continuous sensitivity which essentially indicates the dynamic relationship between the change of control gains and the desired output voltage. Hence, this control approach does not require any good estimation of fixed control gains because it has the self-learning mechanism via the dynamic sensitivity. This also gives the plug-and-play feature of DFIG controllers to make it promising in utility practices. Simulation results verify that the proposed approach performs as expected under various operating conditions.
基金supported in part by the Science and Technology Innovation Program of Hunan Province under Grants 2023JJ40046 and 2023JJ30049.
文摘Currently,the operational performance assessment system in the power market primarily focuses on power generation and electricity retail companies,lacking a system tailored to the operational characteristics of power generation/selling integrated companies.Therefore,this article proposes an assessment index system for assessing the operational performance of a power generation/selling integrated company,encompassing three dimensions:basic capacity,development potential,and external environment.A dynamic proportional adjustment coefficient is designed,along with a subjective and objective weighting model for assessment indexes based on a combined weightingmethod.Subsequently,the operational performance of an integrated company is assessed using extension theory.The results in the case study demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed dynamic proportional adjustment coefficient.
基金This work was supported by the Scientific Research Program Funded by Shaanxi Provincial Education Department(Program No.18JS067)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Program No.51974231).
文摘The reliability factors of a dragline stripping system were analyzed using system reliability theory to improve its reliability and ensure the stability of surface coal mine production.The relationship between the dragline scheduled stripping volume with both the weighted average thickness of the coal seam and the height of the blast casting bench was derived.The results show that the reliability of the dragline stripping system decreases with the weighted average thickness of the coal seam and increases with a reduced casting blast bench height and monthly raw coal production capacity.Furthermore,the dynamic monthly advance distance of the dragline stripping system was found,a new concept of the dragline stripping system reliability and measurement methodology were proposed,and a prediction model for the dragline production capacity was established using a generalized regression neural network.In addition,the steps and processes of the reliability were improved.The study on the Heidaigou surface mine shows that the height of the casting blast bench should be reduced to 10.5 m when its raw coal production capacity is improved from 20 to 30 Mt/a.During the normal production of surface coal,the system reliability can be improved by dynamically determining the weighted average coal seam thickness,accurately predicting the dragline production capacity,and taking other corresponding measures.
基金ItemSponsored by Provincial Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province of China (E2004000206)
文摘In the strip rolling process, shape control system possesses the characteristics of nonlinearity, strong coupling, time delay and time variation. Based on self adapting Elman dynamic recursion network prediction model, the fuzzy control method was used to control the shape on four-high cold mill. The simulation results showed that the system can be applied to real time on line control of the shape.
文摘In this paper, we present a power adjustment scheme to dynamically enlarge and shrink power coverage to speed up tag identification in an RFID system. By dividing a TDMA frame into time slots, the proposed power adjustment scheme can adaptively increase or decrease the transmission power of a reader. Specifically, due to the contention for a TDMA slot from numerous tags, three states of a slot could exist;they are respectively referred to as successful, collided, and idle states. An adjustment factor based on the three states is designed to dynamically adjust the transmission power of a reader. The design of the adjustment factor considers two different aspects. When the number of idle state far exceeds the number of collided state, the first aspect will enlarge the power such that more tags within the coverage can be concurrently identified. On the other hand, when the number of idle state is much smaller than the number of collided state, the second aspect will shrink the power such that the number of tags within the coverage is significantly reduced. The proposed power adjustment scheme is simulated using NS-3. In the simulation, we design three different topologies which place tags in three distributions, uniform, random, and hotspot. From the simulation results, we demonstrate that the proposed power adjustment scheme can speed up the tag identification and save energy consumption, particularly when a large number of tags are placed in hotspot distribution.
文摘The paper intends to analyze economic factors that influence electricity consumption in the OECD economies. A special interest in this context is given to spillover effects of trade on electricity consumption. For this purpose, a model is constructed that using a dynamic panel study approach. The model is estimated in a GMM framework in which a dynamic procedure is conducted along the balanced growth path for electricity consumption in each economy. In advance, the long run dynamic behavior of prices, GDP, and trade induced spillover variables is determined. In a further step, the short run dynamic mechanism is pursued by estimating the partial adjustment dynamic coefficient on the target level of electricity consumption. The analysis is conducted for industrial, as well as residential electricity consumption. Alternatively, the same procedure is estimated by the application of a fixed period model. The model provides a benchmark tool for electricity policy decisions and for electricity consumption projections.