Projecting the proliferation risk of Oncomelania hupensis in China driven by SSPs:A multi-scenario comparison and integrated modeling study

Climate change has been known to cause variations in the geographically suitable areas for the schistosome-transmitting Oncomelania hupensis(O.hupensis).The spread of snails not only depends on the degree of warming but also on the socioeconomic development of the next few decades.Shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)published by CMIP6 consider carbon emission pathways as well as influences of distinct types of social development and land use on the regional climate,providing the possibility to accurately evaluate the impact of socioeconomic development and climate variation on the spread of O.hupensis.This study employed SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585 and the correlative approach to explore the impacts of climate change and socioeconomic development on the potential diffusion areas for O.hupensis in China.The results exhibited strong evidence that O.hupensis will spread in the north of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and disappear from a small part of its current southern habitat,whereas in Sichuan and Yunnan,O.hupensis may spread slightly to the southeast.The projection also demonstrated that fossil fuel-driven development(SSP585)will be more conducive to the spread of O.hupensis breeding sites in the 2030s,whereas the continuous increase in snail breeding habitats under the regional rivalry path(SSP370)may lead to great challenges in snail control in the long term(2020-2080).

Impact of continuous low water stage on the breeding environment of Oncomelania hupensis: a case study of Poyang Lake area in China

Background Oncomelania hupensis is the only intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum and plays a decisive role in its transmission.The variation of water level greatly affects the reproduction and growth of snails.Therefore,in this paper,we analyze the variations of water level in the Poyang Lake region from 1993 to 2016 combined with satellite imagery to elucidate the evolution of the snail breeding environment.Methods By employing remote sensing data from 1993 to 2016(April–June and September–November),the vegetation area of Poyang Lake and the vegetation area at different elevations were extracted and calculated.Moreover,the average daily water level data from the four hydrological stations(Hukou station,Xingzi station,Tangyin station and Kangshan station)which represent the typical state of Poyang Lake were collected from 1993 to 2016.The variance of the monthly mean water level,inundation time and the average area were analyzed by variance to find a significance level ofα=0.05.Results According to hydrological data before and after 2003,the average water level after 2003 is significantly lower than that before 2003 in Poyang Lake.After 2003,the time of inundateing the snail breeding period was later in April to June than that before 2003,while the time of wate-falling stage in September to November moved forward after 2003 than before 2003.Of them,the lowest water level affecting the breeding and growing period of O.hupensis in the northern part of Poyang Lake decreased from 11 m to 9 m.After 2003,the expansion of meadow area in the north part of Poyang Lake was mainly concentrated in the elevation of 9–11 m,and the newly increased infested-meadow in the lake area was mainly concentrated in the north part of Poyang Lake.Conclusions By comparing the change of water level characteristics in different parts of the Poyang Lake area as well as changes in meadow area before and after 2003,it is found that the water level changes mainly affect the snail breeding area in the northern part of Poyang Lake.The results are helpful for improving scientific measures for snail control in Jiangxi Province.This approach could also be applicible to Dongting Lake area and other lake areas affected by water level changes and can bring significant guidance for snail control in lake areas.

银杏外种皮对钉螺的杀灭机理

To study the toxicity of extracts of Ginkgo biloba sarcotesta to Oncomelania hupensis,snails were exposed to 40% and 80% of 24 h LC 50 of the extract of Ginkgo bilba for 24 h,choline esterase(ChE),alanine aminotransferase(ALT),alkaline phosphatase(ALP),lactate dehydrogenase(LDH),succino dehydrogenase(SDH),malic dehydrogenase(MDH)activities in cephalopodium and liver were determined by enzyme kinetic assay.Arecoline and niclosamide were used as reference molluscicides.The results showed that sarcotesta of Ginkgo biloba could inhibit ChE,ALT,ALP and MDH activities both in cephalopodium and liver;arecoline could inhibit ChE,ALP,SDH and MDH activities in cephalopodium and ChE,ALT,ALP,SDH and MDH activities in liver.Niclosamide had inhibitory effects upon ChE,ALT,ALP,SDH and MDH activities in cephalopodium,and ChE,ALT,ALP and SDH activities in liver.All three molluscicides did not inhibite LDH activity in cephalopodium and liver.These results indicate that lethal effects of extracts of sarcotesta of Ginkgo biloba are mediated via inhibition of MDH activitiy,and interference with the NADH respiratory chains.Inhibition of vital enzymic mechanisms causes snails to death.

Three Gorges Dam:the changing trend of snail density in the Yangtze River basin between 1990 and 2019

Background The area of Oncomelania hupensis snail remains around 3.6 billion m^(2),with newly emerging and reemergent habitats continuing to appear in recent years.This study aimed to explore the long-term dynamics of snail density before and after the operation of Three Gorges Dam(TGD).Methods Data of snail survey between 1990 and 2019 were collected from electronic databases and national schistosomiasis surveillance.Meta-analysis was conducted to estimate the snail density.Joinpoint model was used to identify the changing trend and inflection point.Inverse distance weighted interpolation(IDW)was used to determine the spatial distribution of recent snail density.Results A total of 3777 snail survey sites with a precise location of village or beach were identified.For the downstream area,snail density peaked in 1998(1.635/0.11 m^(2),95%CI:1.220,2.189)and fluctuated at a relatively high level before 2003,then declined steadily from 2003 to 2012.Snail density maintained lower than 0.150/0.11 m^(2) between 2012 and 2019.Joinpoint model identified the inflection of 2003,and a significant decreasing trend from 2003 to 2012 with an annual percentage change(APC)being−20.56%(95%CI:−24.15,−16.80).For the upstream area,snail density peaked in 2005(0.760/0.11 m^(2),95%CI:0.479,1.207)and was generally greater than 0.300/0.11 m2 before 2005.Snail density was generally lower than 0.150/0.11 m^(2) after 2011.Snail density showed a significant decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019 with an APC being−6.05%(95%CI:−7.97,−7.09),and no inflection was identified.IDW showed the areas with a high snail density existed in Poyang Lake,Dongting Lake,Jianghan Plain,and the Anhui branch of the Yangtze River between 2015 and 2019.Conclusions Snail density exhibited a fluctuating downward trend in the Yangtze River basin.In the downstream area,the operation of TGD accelerated the decline of snail density during the first decade period,then snail density fluctuated at a relatively low level.There still exists local areas with a high snail density.Long-term control and monitoring of snails need to be insisted on and strengthened.

造林模式对抑螺林土壤功能的影响

血吸虫病危害严重,钉螺(Oncomelania hupensis)作为血吸虫唯一中间宿体,钉螺防治是阻断血吸虫病传播的关键。抑螺林营建是当前进行钉螺防治的有效手段,而林分生长与土壤功能密切相关。本试验以5年生不同造林模式林分为研究对象,分析了活螺生长情况与土壤功能的变化。结果表明:造林模式显著影响了钉螺生长情况,在供试的枫香、樟树、木荷纯林及枫香+樟树+木荷混交林(5∶5∶5)4种林分中,以木荷纯林下活螺框出现率及活螺密度最高,而混交林下活螺框出现率和枫香纯林下活螺密度最低。造林模式影响了土壤含水率、密度、孔隙度、pH值及有机质、全氮、硝态氮含量,但对土壤温度及铵态氮、全磷、有效磷、全钾、有效钾含量无显著影响。整体上,以枫香纯林下林地土壤含水率和pH值最低,密度最小,而土壤孔隙度最大,有机质、全氮、硝态氮含量最高。相关性分析表明,活螺生长与土壤含水率、孔隙度及有机质、全磷含量显著相关。研究认为,造林模式不同,土壤功能不同,抑螺效果也不同。相较香樟、木荷,枫香具有优越的抑螺作用。在进行抑螺林营建中,建议选择土壤疏松透气、排水良好的林地,同时在林地施肥中尽量少施磷肥。

Approaches being used in the national schistosomiasis elimination programme in China:a review

Schistosomiasis japonica,caused by the human blood fluke Schistosoma japonicum,remains a major public health problem in China,although great success has been achieved.The control efforts during the past half-decade,notably the wide implementation of the new integrated strategy with emphasis on control of the source of S.japonicum infection across the country since 2004,has greatly reduced S.japonicum in humans,livestock,and intermediate host Oncomelania hupensis snails,and transmission control of schistosomiasis was achieved in China in 2015.A two-stage roadmap was therefore proposed for schistosomiasis elimination in 2015,with aims to achieve transmission interruption by 2020 and achieve disease elimination by 2025 in the country.During the last two decades,a variety of approaches,which target the epidemiological factors of schistosomiasis japonica have been developed,in order to block the transmission cycle of the parasite.These approaches have been employed in the national or local schistosomiasis control activities,and facilitated,at least in part,the progress of the schistosomiasis elimination programs.Here,we present an approach to control the source of S.japonicum infection,three new tools for snail control,three approaches for detecting and monitoring S.japonicum infection,and a novel model for health education.These approaches are considered to play a great role in the stage moving towards transmission interruption and elimination of schistosomiasis in China.

The Three Gorges Dam:Does it accelerate or delay the progress towards eliminating transmission of schistosomiasis in China?

The Three Gorges Dam,located in the largest endemic area of schistosomiasis in China,is one of the world’s largest hydroelectric projects to date.Some large-scale hydro projects have resulted in schistosomiasis emergence or re-emergence.Therefore,the dam’s potential impact on the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum has raised concerns from medical researchers worldwide.A systematic literature review,coupled with an analysis of data on the water level and snail density in the Yangtze River was conducted to assess the impact of the dam on schistosomiasis transmission after more than 10 years of operation.The dam has significantly altered the water levels in the Yangtze River according to different seasons.These changes directly impact the ecology of the schistosome snail host.Due to the dam,there has been a reduction in the density of Oncomelania snails and/or changes in the distribution of snails.The prevalence of infection with S.japonicum has decreased in the downstream areas of the dam,including in the Dongting and Poyang Lakes.The prevalence of infection with S.japonicum in humans has decreased from 6.80%in 2002(before the dam began operating)to 0.50%in 2012,and the number of people infected with S.japonicum have decreased from 94208 in 2002 to 59200 in 2011 in the Poyang Lake region.The presence of the dam does not seem to affect snail breeding or the prevalence of schistosomiasis in the Three Gorges Reservoir.Overall,the Three Gorges Dam has significantly contributed to changes in hydrology after more than 10 years of the dam operating.The changes caused by the dam,together with integrated control of schistosomiasis,might be accelerating the progress towards eliminating the transmission of S.japonicum in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River.Despite the positive effect the dam is having in controlling S.japonicum transmission,continued surveillance is required to monitor the future ecological impacts of the dam over the long term.

An integrated environmental improvement of marshlands:impact on control and elimination of schistosomiasis in marshland regions along the Yangtze River,China

Background:Schistosomiasis is a global snail-transmitted infectious disease of poverty.Transmission control had been achieved in China in 2015 after the control efforts for over 60 years.Currently,the remaining core regions endemic for Schistosoma japonicum are mainly located in the marshland and lake regions along the Yangtze River basin.Methods:During the period from 2001 through 2015,an integrated environmental improvement of the marshlands was carried out through the implementation of industrial,agricultural and resources development projects in Yizheng County along the Yangtze River.S.japonicum infection in humans,livestock and snails was estimated by serology,stool examination,hatching technique and microscopy during the 15-year study period to evaluate the effect of the integrated environmental improvement on control and elimination of schistosomiasis.Results:A 0.05%overall rate of S.japonicum infection was observed in snails during the 15-year study period,and no infected snails were detected since 2012.The overall prevalence of S.japonicum infection was 0.09%in humans during the study period,and no human infection was found since 2012.In addition,only 13 bovines were identified with S.japonicum infection in 2003 during the 15-year study period,and since 2004,no infection was found in livestock.Conclusion:The results of the present study demonstrate that the implementation of industrial,agricultural and water resources development projects,not only alters snail habitats in marshland regions,and promotes local economic development,which appears a win-to-win strategy to block the transmission of S.japonicum and accelerate socio-economic development along the Yangtze River.

Infestation risk of the intermediate snail host of Schistosomajaponicum in the Yangtze River Basin: improved results by spatial reassessment and a random forest approach

Background:Oncomelania hupensis is only intermediate snail host of Schistosomajaponicum,and distribution of 0.hupensis is an important indicator for the surveillance of schistosomiasis.This study explored the feasibility of a random forest algorithm weighted by spatial distance for risk prediction of schistosomiasis distribution in the Yangtze River Basin in China,with the aim to produce an improved precision reference for the national schistosomiasis control programme by reducing the number of snail survey sites without losing predictive accuracy.Methods:The snail presence and absence records were collected from Anhui,Hunan,Hubei,Jiangxi and Jiangsu provinces in 2018.A machine learning of random forest algorithm based on a set of environmental and climatic variables was developed to predict the breeding sites of the 0.hupensis intermediated snail host of S.japonicum.Different spatial sizes of a hexagonal grid system were compared to estimate the need for required snail sampling sites.The predictive accuracy related to geographic distances between snail sampling sites was estimated by calculating Kappa and the area under the curve(AUC).Results:The highest accuracy(AUC=0.889 and Kappa=0.618)was achieved at the 5 km distance weight.The five factors with the strongest correlation to 0.hupensis infestation probability were:(1)distance to lake(48.9%),(2)distance to river(36.6%),(3)isothermality(29.5%),(4)mean daily difference in temperature(28.1%),and(5)altitude(26.0%).The risk map showed that areas characterized by snail infestation were mainly located along the Yangtze River,with the highest probability in the dividing,slow-flowing river arms in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River in Anhui,followed by areas near the shores of China's two main lakes,the Dongting Lake in Hunan and Hubei and the Poyang Lake in Jiangxi.Conelusions:Applying the machine learning of random forest algorithm made it feasible to precisely predict snail infestation probability,an approach that could improve the sensitivity of the Chinese schistosome surveillance.system.Redesign of the snail surveillance system by spatial bias correction of 0.hupensis infestation in the Yangtze River Basin to reduce the number of sites required to investigate from 2369 to 1747.

Apropos:critical analysis of molluscicide application in schistosomiasis control programs in Brazil

Schistosomiasis is a snail-transmitted infectious disease affecting over 200 million people worldwide.Snail control has been recognized as an effective approach to interrupt the transmission of schistosomiasis,since the geographic distribution of this neglected tropical disease is determined by the presence of the intermediate host snails.In a recent Scoping Review published in Infectious Diseases of Poverty,Coelho and Caldeira performed a critical review of using molluscicides in the national schistosomiasis control programs in Brazil.They also described some chemical and plant-derived molluscicides used in China.In addition to the molluscicides described by Coelho and Caldeira,a large number of chemicals,plant extracts and microorganisms have been screened and tested for molluscicidal actions against Oncomelania hupensis,the intermediate host of Schistosoma japonicum in China.Here,we presented the currently commercial molluscicides available in China,including 26%suspension concentrate of metaldehyde and niclosamide(MNSC),25%suspension concentrate of niclosamide ethanolamine salt(SCNE),50%niclosamide ethanolamine salt wettable powder(WPN),4%niclosamide ethanolamine salt dustable powder(NESP),5%niclosamide ethanolamine salt granule(NESG)and the plant-derived molluscicide“Luowei”.These molluscicides have been proved to be active against O.hupensis in both laboratory and endemic fields,playing an important role in the national schistosomiasis control program of China.Currently,China is transferring its successful experiences on schistosomiasis control to African countries.The introduction of Chinese commercial molluscicides to Africa,with adaptation to local conditions,may facilitate the progress towards the elimination of schisosomiasis in Africa.