A Time Series Short-Term Prediction Method Based on Multi-Granularity Event Matching and Alignment

Accurate forecasting of time series is crucial across various domains.Many prediction tasks rely on effectively segmenting,matching,and time series data alignment.For instance,regardless of time series with the same granularity,segmenting them into different granularity events can effectively mitigate the impact of varying time scales on prediction accuracy.However,these events of varying granularity frequently intersect with each other,which may possess unequal durations.Even minor differences can result in significant errors when matching time series with future trends.Besides,directly using matched events but unaligned events as state vectors in machine learning-based prediction models can lead to insufficient prediction accuracy.Therefore,this paper proposes a short-term forecasting method for time series based on a multi-granularity event,MGE-SP(multi-granularity event-based short-termprediction).First,amethodological framework for MGE-SP established guides the implementation steps.The framework consists of three key steps,including multi-granularity event matching based on the LTF(latest time first)strategy,multi-granularity event alignment using a piecewise aggregate approximation based on the compression ratio,and a short-term prediction model based on XGBoost.The data from a nationwide online car-hailing service in China ensures the method’s reliability.The average RMSE(root mean square error)and MAE(mean absolute error)of the proposed method are 3.204 and 2.360,lower than the respective values of 4.056 and 3.101 obtained using theARIMA(autoregressive integratedmoving average)method,as well as the values of 4.278 and 2.994 obtained using k-means-SVR(support vector regression)method.The other experiment is conducted on stock data froma public data set.The proposed method achieved an average RMSE and MAE of 0.836 and 0.696,lower than the respective values of 1.019 and 0.844 obtained using the ARIMA method,as well as the values of 1.350 and 1.172 obtained using the k-means-SVR method.

Stratigraphical Time——Correlation and Mass Extinction Event Near Permian——Triassic Boundary in South China

Shaw's method used to correlate 40 sections across the Permo-Triassic boundary in South China is applied in the paper. Two steps are adopted to get an Integral Composite Section (ICS) by synthesizing these data : First , South China is divided into five areas and composite section developed for each area . Then the second step . the Changxing composite section is regarded as a composite standard (CSRS) while the ICS is produced by matching the CSRS with composite sections of the other areas. Three biozones in the Changxingian and two biozones in the Griesbachian can be discerned on the basis of computing Z values in the ICS. These biozones are marked by the Z values which quantitatively represent their time ranges ; therefore , they may increase accuracy of stratigraphic time correlation . The mass extinction at the end of the Permian is an abrupt event that is supported by the relative rate of extinction near the P/T boundary . About 90% of invertebrate species died out by the end of the Permian . The duration of the mass extinction is rather short ,approximately 0.018Ma .

The Relation between the Stabilization Problem for Discrete Event Systems Modeled with Timed Petri Nets via Lyapunov Methods and Max-Plus Algebra

A discrete event system is a dynamical system whose state evolves in time by the occurrence of events at possibly irregular time intervals. Timed Petri nets are a graphical and mathematical modeling tool applicable to discrete event systems in order to represent its states evolution where the timing at which the state changes is taken into consideration. One of the most important performance issues to be considered in a discrete event system is its stability. Lyapunov theory provides the required tools needed to aboard the stability and stabilization problems for discrete event systems modeled with timed Petri nets whose mathematical model is given in terms of difference equations. By proving stability one guarantees a bound on the discrete event systems state dynamics. When the system is unstable, a sufficient condition to stabilize the system is given. It is shown that it is possible to restrict the discrete event systems state space in such a way that boundedness is achieved. However, the restriction is not numerically precisely known. This inconvenience is overcome by considering a specific recurrence equation, in the max-plus algebra, which is assigned to the timed Petri net graphical model.

Adaptive Conditional Hazard Regression Modeling of Multiple Event Times

Recurrent event time data and more general multiple event time data are commonly analyzed using extensions of Cox regression, or proportional hazards regression, as used with single event time data. These methods treat covariates, either time-invariant or time-varying, as having multiplicative effects while general dependence on time is left un-estimated. An adaptive approach is formulated for analyzing multiple event time data. Conditional hazard rates are modeled in terms of dependence on both time and covariates using fractional polynomials restricted so that the conditional hazard rates are positive-valued and so that excess time probability functions (generalizing survival functions for single event times) are decreasing. Maximum likelihood is used to estimate parameters adjusting for right censored event times. Likelihood cross-validation (LCV) scores are used to compare models. Adaptive searches through alternate conditional hazard rate models are controlled by LCV scores combined with tolerance parameters. These searches identify effective models for the underlying multiple event time data. Conditional hazard regression is demonstrated using data on times between tumor recurrence for bladder cancer patients. Analyses of theory-based models for these data using extensions of Cox regression provide conflicting results on effects to treatment group and the initial number of tumors. On the other hand, fractional polynomial analyses of these theory-based models provide consistent results identifying significant effects to treatment group and initial number of tumors using both model-based and robust empirical tests. Adaptive analyses further identify distinct moderation by group of the effect of tumor order and an additive effect to group after controlling for nonlinear effects to initial number of tumors and tumor order. Results of example analyses indicate that adaptive conditional hazard rate modeling can generate useful insights into multiple event time data.

Adaptive Conditional Hazard Regression Modeling of Multiple Event Times

Recurrent event time data and more general multiple event time data are commonly analyzed using extensions of Cox regression, or proportional hazards regression, as used with single event time data. These methods treat covariates, either time-invariant or time-varying, as having multiplicative effects while general dependence on time is left un-estimated. An adaptive approach is formulated for analyzing multiple event time data. Conditional hazard rates are modeled in terms of dependence on both time and covariates using fractional polynomials restricted so that the conditional hazard rates are positive-valued and so that excess time probability functions (generalizing survival functions for single event times) are decreasing. Maximum likelihood is used to estimate parameters adjusting for right censored event times. Likelihood cross-validation (LCV) scores are used to compare models. Adaptive searches through alternate conditional hazard rate models are controlled by LCV scores combined with tolerance parameters. These searches identify effective models for the underlying multiple event time data. Conditional hazard regression is demonstrated using data on times between tumor recurrence for bladder cancer patients. Analyses of theory-based models for these data using extensions of Cox regression provide conflicting results on effects to treatment group and the initial number of tumors. On the other hand, fractional polynomial analyses of these theory-based models provide consistent results identifying significant effects to treatment group and initial number of tumors using both model-based and robust empirical tests. Adaptive analyses further identify distinct moderation by group of the effect of tumor order and an additive effect to group after controlling for nonlinear effects to initial number of tumors and tumor order. Results of example analyses indicate that adaptive conditional hazard rate modeling can generate useful insights into multiple event time data.

A discrete-event model to simulate the effect of truck bunching due to payload variance on cycle time, hauled mine materials and fuel consumption

Data collected from truck payload management systems at various surface mines shows that the payload variance is significant and must be considered in analysing the mine productivity,energy consumption,greenhouse gas emissions and associated cost.Payload variance causes significant differences in gross vehicle weights.Heavily loaded trucks travel slower up ramps than lightly loaded trucks.Faster trucks are slowed by the presence of slower trucks,resulting in‘bunching’,production losses and increasing fuel consumptions.This paper simulates the truck bunching phenomena in large surface mines to improve truck and shovel systems’efficiency and minimise fuel consumption.The study concentrated on completing a practical simulation model based on a discrete event method which is most commonly used in this field of research in other industries.The simulation model has been validated by a dataset collected from a large surface mine in Arizona state,USA.The results have shown that there is a good agreement between the actual and estimated values of investigated parameters.

Event-Triggered Finite-Time H∞ Filtering for Discrete-Time Nonlinear Stochastic Systems

This paper addresses the problem of event-triggered finite-time H∞ filter design for a class of discrete-time nonlinear stochastic systems with exogenous disturbances. The stochastic Lyapunov-Krasoviskii functional method is adopted to design a filter such that the filtering error system is stochastic finite-time stable (SFTS) and preserves a prescribed performance level according to the pre-defined event-triggered criteria. Based on stochastic differential equations theory, some sufficient conditions for the existence of H∞ filter are obtained for the suggested system by employing linear matrix inequality technique. Finally, the desired H∞ filter gain matrices can be expressed in an explicit form.

Key Dolerite Dyke Swarms of Amazonia:U-Pb Constraints on Supercontinent Cycles and Geodynamic Connections with Global LIP Events Through Time

High-resolution U–Pb(ID-TIMS,baddeleyite)ages are presented for mafic dykes from selected swarms in two important Amazonian regions:the Carajás Province in the east,and the Rio Apa block in the southwest–areas

A Study of Visual Event-Related Potential and Reaction Time in Elderly People: Comparative Analysis of the Scores of Intelligence Test in 30 Subjects

The results of visual event-related potential(ERP)examinations and reactiontime(RT)tests were reported in 30 elders and compared with their performanceintellegence quotient(PIQ)scores.The subjects consisted of 18 males and 12 femalesaged 50-71(mean 61.4)years old.No history of central nervous system disease wasfound.The visual stimuli were randomly presented to the subject,including three sym-bols:E as target stimulus with 0.15 probability,and H and E as nontarget stimuliwith 0.15 and 0.70 probability respectively.The recording electrodes were placed on Fzand Pz.The duration from the subject seeing the target to touching a button immediatelywas considered as reaction time(RT).It was shown that the P3 latency at Pz was longer than that at Fz and the P3amplitude at Pz was larger than that at Fz,and that the RT was longer than P3 latencywith obvious effect of distribution(P【0.05 at Fz and P】0.05 at Pz)as well .The higherthe PIQ scores,the longer the RT and the P3 latency.It is suggested that the ERPmight reflect the differences of PIQ scores,and the P3 is an objective index.We considerthat the research of ERP is of great interest in the neuropsychological and neurological sci-ences.

The Time Events and the Poetics of Care for the Oceans

The images of the oceans often inspire us to take a poetic lift of the spirit for an escape from the daily boredom or troubles related to the social restriction based on the ideological hierarchy.On the other hand,however,the collective human desires have no good ethics to discipline the insatiable enjoyment that has obviously damaged the environment and polluted the oceans.In this short paper,I focus on the concepts of the time event,Aion and Chronos,with the three poems related to the images of the oceans written by a Taiwan Residents poet,Hui Tong;I also try to understand how the origin of the water on our Earth comes from.In fact,our Earth has the“liquid”oceans on the surface and also the hidden“solid”oceans,the blue crystal rocks called ringwoodite,within Earth’s mantle.The oceans absorb heat and the tiny ocean plants called phytoplankton drifting with the oceanic currents produce oxygen through photosynthesis for the human health as well.But the contemporary environmental problem is that the chronic damages of the biodiversity by the human collective desires have affected the oceans to become seriously polluted.Therefore,we have the feelings of ambivalence toward the images of the oceans:tranquility,transience,creativity,oblivion or corruption and hostility for the human bad habits.

Real Time Monitoring of Extreme Rainfall Events with Simple X-Band Mini Weather Radar

Real time rainfall events monitoring is very important for a large number of reasons: Civil Protection, hydrogeological risk management, hydroelectric power purposes, road and traffic regulation, and tourism. Efficient monitoring operations need continuous, high-resolution and large-coverage data. To monitor and observe extreme rainfall events, often much localized over small basins of interest, and that could frequently causing flash floods, an unrealistic extremely dense rain gauge network should be needed. On the other hand, common large C-band or S-band long range radars do not provide the necessary spatial and temporal resolution. Simple short-range X-band mini weather radar can be a valid compromise solution. The present work shows how a single polarization, non-Doppler and non-coherent, simple and low cost X-band radar allowed monitoring three very intense rainfall events occurred near Turin during July 2014. The events, which caused damages and floods, are detected and monitored in real time with a sample rate of 1 minute and a radial spatial resolution of 60 m, thus allowing to describe the intensity of the precipitation on each small portion of territory. This information could be very useful if used by authorities in charge of Civil Protection in order to avoid inconvenience to people and to monitor dangerous situations.

Cyclic Reconfigurable Flow Shop under Different Configurations Modeling and Optimization Based on Timed Event Graph

Based on the idea that modules are independent of machines, different combinations of modules and machines result in different configurations and the system performances differ under different configurations, a kind of cyclic reconfigurable flow shops are proposed for the new manufacturing paradigm-reconfigurable manufacturing system. The cyclic reconfigurable flow shop is modeled as a timed event graph. The optimal configuration is defined as the one under which the cyclic reconfigurable flow shop functions with the minimum cycle time and the minimum number of pallets. The optimal configuration, the minimum cycle time and the minimum number of pallets can be obtained in two steps.

Modified <i>f(R)</i>Gravity and Thermodynamics of Time-Dependent Wormholes at Event Horizon

In the context of modified gravity theory, we study time-dependent wormhole spacetimes in the radiation background. In this framework, we attempt to generalize the thermodynamic properties of time-dependent wormholes in gravity. Finally, at event horizon, the rate of change of total entropy has been discussed.

Event-Triggered Zero-Gradient-Sum Distributed Algorithm for Convex Optimization with Time-Varying Communication Delays and Switching Directed Topologies

Nowadays, distributed optimization algorithms are widely used in various complex networks. In order to expand the theory of distributed optimization algorithms in the direction of directed graph, the distributed convex optimization problem with time-varying delays and switching topologies in the case of directed graph topology is studied. The event-triggered communication mechanism is adopted, that is, the communication between agents is determined by the trigger conditions, and the information exchange is carried out only when the conditions are met. Compared with continuous communication, this greatly saves network resources and reduces communication cost. Using Lyapunov-Krasovskii function method and inequality analysis, a new sufficient condition is proposed to ensure that the agent state finally reaches the optimal state. The upper bound of the maximum allowable delay is given. In addition, Zeno behavior will be proved not to exist during the operation of the algorithm. Finally, a simulation example is given to illustrate the correctness of the results in this paper.

生存资料的二次研究系列之二:R软件重建time-to-event结局的单个患者数据

在原始研究中,对time-to-event结局的报道往往仅限于中位time to event和风险比。本文介绍一种使用R软件利用文献报道的Kaplan-Meier曲线、特定时间点无事件患者数(numbers at risk)和总事件数重建单个患者数据(IPD)的方法。

Intrusion Detection System for PS-Poll DoS Attack in 802.11 Networks Using Real Time Discrete Event System

Wi-Fi devices have limited battery life because of which conserving battery life is imperative. The 802.11 Wi-Fi standard provides power management feature that allows stations(STAs) to enter into sleep state to preserve energy without any frame losses. After the STA wakes up, it sends a null data or PS-Poll frame to retrieve frame(s) buffered by the access point(AP), if any during its sleep period. An attacker can launch a power save denial of service(PS-DoS) attack on the sleeping STA(s) by transmitting a spoofed null data or PS-Poll frame(s) to retrieve the buffered frame(s) of the sleeping STA(s) from the AP causing frame losses for the targeted STA(s). Current approaches to prevent or detect the PS-DoS attack require encryption,change in protocol or installation of proprietary hardware. These solutions suffer from expensive setup, maintenance, scalability and deployment issues. The PS-DoS attack does not differ in semantics or statistics under normal and attack circumstances.So signature and anomaly based intrusion detection system(IDS) are unfit to detect the PS-DoS attack. In this paper we propose a timed IDS based on real time discrete event system(RTDES) for detecting PS-DoS attack. The proposed DES based IDS overcomes the drawbacks of existing systems and detects the PS-DoS attack with high accuracy and detection rate. The correctness of the RTDES based IDS is proved by experimenting all possible attack scenarios.

RFID Complex Event Processing: Applications in Real-Time Locating System

Complex event processing (CEP) can extract meaningful events for real-time locating system (RTLS) applications. To identify complex event accurately in RTLS, we propose a new RFID complex event processing method GEEP, which is based on the timed automata (TA) theory. By devising RFID locating application into complex events, we model the timing diagram of RFID data streams based on the TA. We optimize the constraint of the event streams and propose a novel method to derive the constraint between objects, as well as the constraint between object and location. Experiments prove the proposed method reduces the cost of RFID complex event processing, and improves the efficiency of the RTLS.

Environment-dependent continuous time random walk

A generalized continuous time random walk model which is dependent on environmental damping is proposed in which the two key parameters of the usual random walk theory： the jumping distance and the waiting time, are replaced by two new ones： the pulse velocity and the flight time. The anomalous diffusion of a free particle which is characterized by the asymptotical mean square displacement （x^2（t）） - t^a is realized numerically and analysed theoretically, where the value of the power index a is in a region of 0 〈 a 〈 2. Particularly, the damping leads to a sub-diffusion when the impact velocities are drawn from a Gaussian density function and the super-diffusive effect is related to statistical extremes, which are called rare-though-dominant events.

Combined Adaptive Multiple Subtraction Based on Optimized Event Tracing and Extended Wiener Filtering

The surface-related multiple elimination(SRME) method is based on feedback formulation and has become one of the most preferred multiple suppression methods used. However, some differences are apparent between the predicted multiples and those in the source seismic records, which may result in conventional adaptive multiple subtraction methods being barely able to effectively suppress multiples in actual production. This paper introduces a combined adaptive multiple attenuation method based on the optimized event tracing technique and extended Wiener filtering. The method firstly uses multiple records predicted by SRME to generate a multiple velocity spectrum, then separates the original record to an approximate primary record and an approximate multiple record by applying the optimized event tracing method and short-time window FK filtering method. After applying the extended Wiener filtering method, residual multiples in the approximate primary record can then be eliminated and the damaged primary can be restored from the approximate multiple record. This method combines the advantages of multiple elimination based on the optimized event tracing method and the extended Wiener filtering technique. It is an ideal method for suppressing typical hyperbolic and other types of multiples, with the advantage of minimizing damage of the primary. Synthetic and field data tests show that this method produces better multiple elimination results than the traditional multi-channel Wiener filter method and is more suitable for multiple elimination in complicated geological areas.

Higher-order differential variational principle and differential equations of motion for mechanical systems in event space

In this paper we study the higher-order differential variational principle and differential equations of motion for mechanical systems in event space. Based on the higher-order d＇Alembert principle of the system, the higher-order velocity energy and the higher-order acceleration energy of the system in event space are defined, the higher-order d＇Alembert- Lagrange principle of the system in event space is established, and the parametric forms of Euler-Lagrange, Nielsen and Appell for this principle are given. Finally, the higher-order differential equations of motion for holonomic systems in event space are obtained.