Using Contrasts in One-Way Analysis of Variance with Control Groups and an Application

In this study, it was shown that, same comparisons can be made by using contrast coefficients instead of Dunnett＇s test in the experiments with control groups. It was also shown that, in situations with an ordinal scale and equal spacing quantitative grouping, a trend investigation could be done by contrast coefficients. For this purpose, a small part of the data from a TUBITAK project in the Soil Science Department, Agriculture Faculty, Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam University, was used with permission. The soils were absorbed to natural zeolite in concentration of 0, 2.5, 5 and 10 mg/kg, and after two years, the available Zinc （Zn） amounts in the soil were analyzed. As a result, in both Dunnett＇s test and contrast methods, the Zn amounts in control and 2.5 mg/kg concentration groups were found similar （P 〉 0.01）; but were different （P 〈 0.01） between control and 5 mg/kg concentration groups, and control and 10 mg/kg concentration groups. Furthermore, when orthogonal polynomial contrast coefficients were investigated, linear effects were found significant （P 〈 0.01） and cubic effects were obtained significant （P 〈 0.05）, but quadratic effect was obtained insignificant （P 〉 0.05）.

ONE-WAY MULTIVARIATE REPEATED MEASUREMENTS ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE MODEL

The one-way multivariate repeated measurements analysis of variance (1-way MRM ANOVA) model for complete data and the sphericity test are studied.

Analysis on Chinese Regional Differences in International Tourism Foreign Exchange Earnings with Method of One-way Variance Analysis

Based on data over 31 provinces and cities in China from2006 to 2013,this thesis first divides those 31 provinces and cities into four economic regions including northeastern region,central region,eastern region and western region.Based on data over 31 provinces and cities in China from 2006 to 2013,those 31 provinces and cities were devided into four economic regions in this thesis,including northeastern region,central region,eastern region and western region.Then,it takes international tourism foreign exchange earnings as the dependent variable,the four economic regions as the factor to measure the difference of international tourism foreign exchange earnings in different regions,and finds out the main reasons of it.Through the one-way variance analysis on international tourism foreign exchange earnings,we can know that international tourism foreign exchange earnings have differences in different regions apparently.Besides,significant differences can be found between northeastern and central regions as well as eastern and western regions,while it is not the same case between the central and western regions.

Comparison of performance between rescaled range analysis and rescaled variance analysis in detecting abrupt dynamic change

In the present paper, a comparison of the performance between moving cutting data-rescaled range analysis （MC- R/S） and moving cutting data-rescaled variance analysis （MC-V/S） is made. The results clearly indicate that the operating efficiency of the MC-R/S algorithm is higher than that of the MC-V/S algorithm. In our numerical test, the computer time consumed by MC-V/S is approximately 25 times that by MC-R/S for an identical window size in artificial data. Except for the difference in operating efficiency, there are no significant differences in performance between MC-R/S and MC-V/S for the abrupt dynamic change detection. Mc-R/s and MC-V/S both display some degree of anti-noise ability. However, it is important to consider the influences of strong noise on the detection results of MC-R/S and MC-V/S in practical application

Mold Wear During Die Forging Based on Variance Analysis and Prediction of Die Life

A process parameter optimization method for mold wear during die forging process is proposed and a mold life prediction method based on polynomial fitting is presented,by combining the variance analysis method in the orthogonal test with the finite element simulation test in the forging process.The process parameters with the greatest influence on the mold wear during the die forging process and the optimal solution of the process parameters to minimize the wear depth of the mold are derived.The hot die forging process is taken as an example,and a mold wear correction model for hot forging processes is derived based on the Archard wear model.Finite element simulation analysis of die wear process in hot die forging based on deform software is performed to study the relationship between the wear depth of the mold working surface and the die forging process parameters during hot forging process.The optimized process parameters suitable for hot forging are derived by orthogonal experimental design and analysis of variance.The average wear amount of the mold during the die forging process is derived by calculating the wear depth of a plurality of key nodes on the mold surface.Mold life for the entire production process is predicted based on average mold wear depth and polynomial fitting.

Did the Revision of the Japanese Medical Payment System Work Properly?—An Analysis of Averages and Variances of Length of Hospital Stay for Type 2 Diabetes Patients by Individual Hospital

We evaluated the effects of the 2010 revision of the medical payment system on the length of stay (LOS). In this analysis, we assessed not only the average length of stay (ALOS), but also variance of LOS at individual hospitals. We used a dataset of 18,641 type 2 diabetes patients collected from 51 general hospitals. The variables found to affect LOS were age, comorbidities, complications, acute hospitalization, introduced by other hospitals, winter, one-week hospitalization, specific hospitalization period, and principal diseases coded E11.5, E11.6 and E11.7. Although the effect was marginal, the 2010 revision did reduce ALOS, and the reduction was larger as ALOS became longer. On the other hand, we did not find that the variance of LOS within hospitals became smaller. The results of the study suggest that new incentives and assistance to hospitals to help them make efficient use of medical information are needed.

Variance analysis for passive neutron multiplicity counting

Passive neutron multiplicity counting is widely used as a nondestructive assay technique to quantify mass of plutonium material. One goal of this technique is to achieve good precision in a short measurement time. In this paper, we describe a procedure to derive mass assay variance for multiplicity counting based on the threeparameter model, and analytical equations are established using the measured neutron multiplicity distribution.Monte Carlo simulations are performed to evaluate precision versus plutonium mass under a fixed measurement time with the equations. Experimental data of seven weapons-grade plutonium samples are presented to test the expected performance. This variance analysis has been used for the counter design and optimal gate-width setting at Institute of Nuclear Physics and Chemistry.

Application of Improved Analysis of Variance to Ionospheric TEC Short-Term Forecast

An improved superposition analysis of periodical wave variance is used for short-term forecast of the ionosphere TEC in this study. Using the ionospheric TEC data provided by IGS as the real value, the forecasting precision of this me-thod at different locations in China with 40 days data is evaluated. The result shows that the improved method has a better forecasting precision which could reach 1.1 TECU. But the forecasting precision still relates to geographical position, it is proportional to longitude and inversely proportional to latitude. Compared with the current-used methods, the improved method has many advantages as higher precision, using fewer parameters and easier to calculate. So, it applied to ionosphere short-term prediction in China very well.

Authorized variance analysis with consumption rate

On the base of budget or plan information, comparing with actual results, making variance analysis, finding real reasons behind variance, this is important way of control and also important function of budget. However, without consideration of changes of environment, there are some limitations for static variance analysis with benchmark of plan data. Adjusting for benchmark according to actual condition, then doing variance analysis, these will improve utilization of variance analysis. Adjusted benchmark is often known as authorized cost/profit. For different understanding for authority concept, with RCA＇s （the abbreviation for Resource Consumption Accounting） view and numerical examples, this paper brings out the concept of consumption rate variance to promoting deeper understanding and analyzing reasons behind variance.

应用Open Meta-Analysis软件实现诊断准确性试验的Meta分析

Open Meta-Analysis软件是用于二分类数据、连续型数据以及诊断数据Meta分析的开放软件,该软件提供了四种模型来执行诊断准确性试验的Meta分析,即诊断随机效应模型、倒方差混合效应模型、双变量模型和分层综合受试者工作特征曲线法,其中前两者为单变量模型,只能执行单个指标合并,而后两者为双变量模型,能够对灵敏度和特异度之间的负相关性进行综合分析。本文以实例就Open Meta-Analysis软件实现诊断准确性试验Meta分析做相关简述。

Detailed Statistic Analysis Method of Split-split Plot Design in Agricultural Research

Based on a practical research test, the statistic analysis method for the experimental data in the split-split plot design was introduced in detail, especially in- troduced the significant test method of three-factor interaction and the calculation of test value, which solved the problem of how to make statistical analysis on the data in split-split plot design.

Spatial analysis increases efficiency of progeny testing of Chinese fir

We used spatial, global trend and post-blocking analysis to examine the effectiveness of a progeny trial in a tree breeding program for Chinese fir （Cunninghamia lanceolata （Lamb.） Hook） on a hilly site with an environmental gradient from hill top to bottom. Diameter at breast height （DBH） and tree height data had significant spatial auto-correlations among rows and columns. Adding a firstorder separable autoregressive term more effectively modelled the spatial variation than did the incomplete block （IB） model used for the experimental design. The spatial model also accounted for effects of experimental design factors and greatly reduced residual variances. The spatial analysis rel- ative to the IB analysis improved estimation of genetic parameters with the residual variance reduced 13 and 19% for DBH and tree height, respectively; heritability increased 35 and 51% for DBH and tree height, respectively; and genetic gain improved 3-5%. Fitting global trend and postblocking did not improve the analyses under IB model. The use of a spatial model or combined with a design model is recommended for forest genetic trials, particularly with global trend and local spatial variation of hilly sites.

Analysis of Heat Transfer Performance of Oscillating Heat Pipes Based on a Central Composite Design

Oscillating heat pipes (OHPs) are very promising cooling devices. Their heat transfer performance is af- fected by many factors, and the form of the relationship between the performance and the factors is complex and non-linear. In this paper, the effects of charging ratio, inclination angle, and heat input and their interaction effects on heat transfer performance of a looped copper-water OHP are analyzed. First, suppose that the relationship between the response and the variables approximates a second-order model. And use the central composite design to arrange the ex- periment. Then, the method of least squares is used to estimate the parameters in the second-order model. Finally, multi- variate variance analysis is used to analyze the model. The results show that the assumption is right, that is to say, the re- lationship is well modeled by a second-order function. Among the three main effect variables, the effect of inclination angle is the most significant, but their interaction effects are not significant. In the range of the considered factors, both the optimum charging ratio and the optimum inclination angle increase as the heating water flow rate increases.

GENETIC MODELS AND ANALYSIS METHODS FOR SEX-LINKED AND MATERNAL GENE EFFECTS

Genetic models are proposed for analyzing sex-linked and maternal effects as well as autosomal gene effects.For the model with no genotype×environment interaction,the total genetic effect is partitioned into direct additive （A）,direct dominance （D）,sexlinked （L）,maternal additive （Am） and maternal dominance （Dm） genetic components.For the model including genotype×environment interaction （GE）,GE can also be partitioned into components of direct additive by environment interaction （AE）,direct dominance by environment interaction （DE）,sex-linked by environment interaction （LE）,maternal additive by environment interaction （AmE ）,and maternal dominance by environment interaction （DmE）.Linear functions of genetic components are listed for parent,F1,and F2.A set of parents,their reciprocal F1’s and F2’s is applicable for efficient analysis.Variance and covariance components can be well mated by MINQUE（O/l） with the jackknife procedure.The t-test conducted by the jackknife procedure is applicable for detecting significance of variation.Adjusted Unbiased Prediction （AUP） method is suggested for predicting genetic effects.

Optimizing SUS 304 wire drawing process by grey relational analysis utilizing Taguchi method

In the stainless steel 304 （SUS 304） wire drawing process, optimizing the die life and wire tensile strength, which are the larger-the-better quality characteristics （QCH） types, is of main interest. Three control factors, involving reduction ratio, lubricant temperature, and drawing speed, were investigated utilizing L9（34） orthogonal array （OA）. The grey relational analysis was conducted for the normalized signal-to-noise （S/N） ratios. The ordinal value of the grey grade was then used to decide optimal factor levels. The anticipated improvements in die life and wire tensile strength were estimated 25.31 h and 22.50 kg/mm2, respectively. To decide the significant factor which had effect on each QCH and predict the average value of each QCH, analysis of variance （ANOVA） was performed for S/N ratio and QCH. Confirmation experiments were then conducted, where a good overlap was noticed between the predicted and confirnation intervals for each QCH. The Hotelling T2 and the sample generalized variance control charts were finally utilized in controlling and monitoring future production. In conclusion, the grey relational analysis utilizing Taguchi method is an effective approach for optimizing the die life and wire tensile strength for SUS wire drawing process. 2008 University of Science and Technology Beijing. All rights reserved.

An Empirical Bayes Approach to Robust Variance Estimation: A Statistical Proposal for Quantitative Medical Image Testing

The current standard for measuring tumor response using X-ray, CT and MRI is based on the response evaluation criterion in solid tumors (RECIST) which, while providing simplifications over previous (WHO) 2-D methods, stipulate four response categories: CR (complete response), PR (partial response), PD (progressive disease), SD (stable disease) based purely on percentage changes without consideration of any measurement uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a statistical procedure for tumor response assessment based on uncertainty measures of radiologist’s measurement data. We present several variance estimation methods using time series methods and empirical Bayes methods when a small number of serial observations are available on each member of a group of subjects. We use a publically available database which contains a set of over 100 CT scan images on 23 patients with annotated RECIST measurements by two radiologist readers. We show that despite of bias in each individual reader’s measurements, statistical decisions on tumor change can be made on each individual subject. The consistency of the two readers can be established based on the intra-reader change assessments. Our proposal compares favorably with the RECIST standard protocol, raising the hope that, statistically sound decision on change analysis can be made in future based on careful variability and measurement uncertainty analysis.

Analysis of Wind Power Assessment Based on the WRF Model

Assessing wind energy is a key step in selecting a site for a wind farm. The accuracy of the assessment is essential for the future operation of the wind farm. There are two main methods for assessing wind power: one is based on observational data and the other relies on mesoscale numerical weather prediction(NWP). In this study, the wind power of the Liaoning coastal wind farm was evaluated using observations from an anemometer tower and simulations by the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model, to see whether the WRF model can produce a valid assessment of the wind power and whether the downscaling process can provide a better evaluation. The paper presents long-term wind data analysis in terms of annual, seasonal, and diurnal variations at the wind farm, which is located on the east coast of Liaoning Province. The results showed that, in spring and summer, the wind speed, wind direction, wind power density, and other main indicators were consistent between the two methods. However, the values of these parameters from the WRF model were significantly higher than the observations from the anemometer tower. Therefore, the causes of the differences between the two methods were further analyzed. There was much more deviation in the original material, National Centers for Environmental Prediction(NCEP) final(FNL) Operational Global Analysis data, in autumn and winter than in spring and summer. As the region is vulnerable to cold-air outbreaks and windy weather in autumn and winter, and the model usually forecasted stronger high or low systems with a longer duration, the predicted wind speed from the WRF model was too large.

Property analysis of bistatic forward-looking SAR with arbitrary geometry

Bistatic forward-looking synthetic aperture radar（SAR） has many advantages and applications owing to its twodimensional imaging capability.There could be various imaging configurations because of the geometric flexibility of bistatic platforms,resulting in kinds of models built independently among which there could be some similar even the same motion features.Comprehensive research on such systems in a more comprehensive and general point of view is required to address their difference and consistency.Property analysis of bistatic forwardlooking SAR with arbitrary geometry is achieved including stripmap and spotlight modes on airborne platform,missile-borne platform,and hybrid platform of both.Emphasis is placed on azimuth space variance of some key parameters significantly affecting the subsequent imaging processing,based on which the frequency spectra are further described and compared considering respective features of different platforms for frequency imaging algorithm developing.Simulation results confirm the effectiveness and correctness of our analysis.

Third Order Adjoint Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of an OECD/NEA Reactor Physics Benchmark: III. Response Moments

The (180)3 third-order mixed sensitivities of the leakage response of a polyethylene-reflected plutonium (PERP) experimental benchmark with respect to the benchmark’s 180 microscopic total cross sections have been computed in accompanying works [1] [2]. This work quantifies the contributions of these (180)3 third-order mixed sensitivities to the PERP benchmark’s leakage response distribution moments (expected value, variance and skewness) and compares these contributions to those stemming from the corresponding first- and second-order sensitivities of the PERP benchmark’s leakage response with respect to the total cross sections. The numerical results obtained in this work reveal that the importance of the 3rd-order sensitivities can surpass the importance of the 1st- and 2nd-order sensitivities when the parameters’ uncertainties increase. In particular, for a uniform standard deviation of 10% of the microscopic total cross sections, the 3rd-order sensitivities contribute 80% to the response variance, whereas the contribution stemming from the 1st- and 2nd-order sensitivities amount only to 2% and 18%, respectively. Consequently, neglecting the 3rd-order sensitivities could cause a very large non-conservative error by under-reporting the response variance by a factor of 506%. The results obtained in this work also indicate that the effects of the 3rd-order sensitivities are to reduce the response’s skewness in parameter space, rendering the distribution of the leakage response more symmetric about its expected value. The results obtained in this work are the first such results ever published in reactor physics. Since correlations among the group-averaged microscopic total cross sections are not available, only the effects of typical standard deviations for these cross sections could be considered. Due to this lack of correlations among the cross sections, the effects of the mixed 3rd-order sensitivities could not be quantified exactly at this time. These effects could be quantified only when correlations among the group-averaged microscopic total cross sections would be obtained experimentally by the nuclear physics community.

AFLP and MSAP Analysis of ‘Lane Late’ Navel Orange and Its Bud Sport Pumpkin-like Navel Orange

[Objectives]The paper was to analyze the differences of genes and genome methylation between‘lane late’navel orange and it’s bud sport pumpkin-like navel orange,and to reveal the causes of bud sport.[Methods]Amplification fragment length polymorphism(AFLP)and methylation sensitive amplification polymorphism(MSAP)were used to analyze the differences in genes and genome methylation of‘lane late’navel orange and its bud sport pumpkin-like navel orange.[Results]Gene mutation occurred between the‘lane late’navel orange and its bud sport pumpkin-like navel orange.A total of 15 differential bands were obtained by AFLP markers,and the percentage of polymorphic bands was 6.0000%.Meantime,10 differential bands were obtained by MSAP markers,and the percentage of polymorphic bands was 5.4645%.The semimethylation rate and permethylation rate of‘lane late’navel orange were higher than that of pumpkin-like navel orange,that is,pumpkin-like navel orange had demethylation(demethylation ratio was 1.6393%).[Conclusions]It is proved at the DNA level that the emergence of bud sport pumpkin-like navel orange is due to gene mutation,and the DNA methylation level of the bud sport material has also changed.This study lays a foundation for further exploring the mechanism of bud sport.