The spread of online topics,which is a complex socio-psychological and information dissemination process,can significantly influence the online public opinion. The behavior of online topics spreading is explored and i...The spread of online topics,which is a complex socio-psychological and information dissemination process,can significantly influence the online public opinion. The behavior of online topics spreading is explored and its regularity is attempted to analyze. A general model for the spread of online topics is introduced,and the differential equation that describes the velocity of an online topic＇s spreading is derived. The velocity of an online topic＇s spread indicates the level of the topic＇s development and reflects its popularity over time. The proposed model has been theoretically analyzed and empirically studied,respectively. By analyzing the data set from a famous Internet forum,it is shown that the development of spread velocity of online topics has some certain features and our model matches the laws of reality. This method,which is suitable for forecasting the development trend of online topics’ spread velocity in short term,is also critical to the success of online topics’ regularity analysis.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No. 60972012the Beijing Natural Science Foundation under Grant No. 4102047+2 种基金the Major Program for Research on Philosophy & Humanity Social Sciences of the Ministry of Education of China under Grant No. 08WL1101the Academic Discipline and Postgraduate Education Project of Beijing Municipal Commission of Educationthe Service Business of Scientists and Engineers Project under Grant No. 2009GJA00048
文摘The spread of online topics,which is a complex socio-psychological and information dissemination process,can significantly influence the online public opinion. The behavior of online topics spreading is explored and its regularity is attempted to analyze. A general model for the spread of online topics is introduced,and the differential equation that describes the velocity of an online topic＇s spreading is derived. The velocity of an online topic＇s spread indicates the level of the topic＇s development and reflects its popularity over time. The proposed model has been theoretically analyzed and empirically studied,respectively. By analyzing the data set from a famous Internet forum,it is shown that the development of spread velocity of online topics has some certain features and our model matches the laws of reality. This method,which is suitable for forecasting the development trend of online topics’ spread velocity in short term,is also critical to the success of online topics’ regularity analysis.
