The paper forms the second part of an introduction to possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes in the Province of Ontario, Canada. Daily streamflow simulation models developed in the compani...The paper forms the second part of an introduction to possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes in the Province of Ontario, Canada. Daily streamflow simulation models developed in the companion paper (Part I) were used to project changes in frequency of future daily streamflow events. To achieve this goal, future climate information (including rainfall) at a local scale is needed. A regression-based downscaling method was employed to downscale eight global climate model (GCM) simulations (scenarios A2 and B1) to selected weather stations for various meteorological variables (except rainfall). Future daily rainfall quantities were projected using daily rainfall simulation models with downscaled future climate information. Following these projections, future daily streamflow volumes can be projected by applying daily streamflow simulation models. The frequency of future daily high-streamflow events in the warm season (May–November) was projected to increase by about 45%-55% late this century from the current condition, on average of eight-GCM A2 projections and four selected river basins. The corresponding increases for future daily low-streamflow events and future daily mean streamflow volume could be about 25%-90% and 10%-20%, respectively. In addition, the return values of annual one-day maximum streamflow volume for various return periods were projected to increase by 20%-40%, 20%-50%, and 30%-80%, respectively for the periods 2001-50, 2026-75, and 2051-2100. Inter-GCM and interscenario uncertainties of future streamflow projections were quantitatively assessed. On average, the projected percentage increases in frequency of future daily high-streamflow events are about 1.4-2.2 times greater than inter-GCM and interscenario uncertainties.展开更多
The paper forms the first part of an introduction to possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes in the Province of Ontario, Canada. In this study, both conceptual and statistical streamflow si...The paper forms the first part of an introduction to possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes in the Province of Ontario, Canada. In this study, both conceptual and statistical streamflow simulation modeling theories were collectively applied to simulate daily streamflow volumes. Based on conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling principle, the predictors were selected to take into account several physical factors that affect streamflow, such as (1) current and previous quantities of rainfall over the watershed, (2) an index of pre-storm moisture conditions, (3) an index of pre-storm evapotranspiration capacities, and (4) a seasonal factor representing seasonal variation of streamflow volume. These rainfall-runoff conceptual factors were applied to an autocorrelation correction regression procedure to develop a daily streamflow simulation model for each of the four selected river basins. The streamflow simulation models were validated using a leave-one-year-out cross-validation scheme. The simulation models identified that the explanatory predictors are consistent with the physical processes typically associated with high-streamflow events. Daily streamflow simulation models show that there are significant correlations between daily streamflow observations and model validations, with model R2s of 0.68-0.71, 0.61-0.62, 0.71-0.74, and 0.95 for Grand, Humber, Upper Thames, and Rideau River Basins, respectively. The major reason for the model performance varying across the basins might be that rainfall-runoff response time and physical characteristics differ significantly among the selected river basins. The results suggest that streamflow simulation models can be used to assess possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes at a local scale, which is major objective of a companion paper (Part II).展开更多
This paper presents a hydro-geophysical investigation into the landfill leachate distribution and subsurface geology at a closed site in southwestern Ontario, Canada, using geophysical mapping and hydrological modelin...This paper presents a hydro-geophysical investigation into the landfill leachate distribution and subsurface geology at a closed site in southwestern Ontario, Canada, using geophysical mapping and hydrological modeling approaches. Conductivity mapping was first conducted over the study site using a frequency-domain EM terrain conductivity meter, revealing an anomalous high-con- ductivity zone of about 200 m (S-N) × 80 m (W-E) at the western half of the site. The DC resistivity survey was then carried out at this anomalous zone with eight S-N profiles and three W-E profiles measuring 200m in length using a Wenner-α configuration. Our resistivity survey results indicate that the landfill leachate travels mainly south-east wards over the upper aquifer, with a minor vertical component into the upper weathered portion of the silt/sand aquitard at some locations. No contamination seems to exist in the lower sand aquifer. The geophysical results were later used to develop two conceptualized models for hydrological modeling. Our numerical results predict the leachate distribution at the study site in the future, confirming that the contaminant will occupy the entire upper aquifer and the most of the aquitard in a time of 1000 years, and that the barrier of the aquitard will protect the lower sand aquifer from the leachate pollution. These findings are critical in evaluating the current leachate conditions and the existing compliance monitoring plan for potential implementation at this study site and other sites in elsewhere.展开更多
The abundance and size composition of stream isopods Lirceusfontinalis were investigated from April 2001 to August 2002 in 3 streams in southem Ontario, Canada. Effects of current speed was released from the analysis ...The abundance and size composition of stream isopods Lirceusfontinalis were investigated from April 2001 to August 2002 in 3 streams in southem Ontario, Canada. Effects of current speed was released from the analysis by choosing slow flowing water. The effects of substrate, season and water depth on the abundance, distribution and size composition of the isopods were analyzed. It was found that substrate and season influence isopods the most. The rocky substrate with attached filamentous macro-algae contains an isopod abundance 7.05 times that of bare rock substrate and 14.6 times that of free-sand and mud substrate. There was a large variation with respect to seasonali .ty in both abundance and size composition of the isopods, with the highest abundance occumng in summer and the lowest in winter and spring; individual isopods also tend to be larger in the winter and spring. In all substrates, shallow areas tend to support higher densities of isopods than deeper areas.展开更多
The objective of this paper was to project possible impacts of climate change on heavy rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses for four selected cites (Kitchener-Waterloo, London, Ottawa, an...The objective of this paper was to project possible impacts of climate change on heavy rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses for four selected cites (Kitchener-Waterloo, London, Ottawa, and Toronto) located at Ontario, Canada. To achieve this goal, the future climate change scenarios and rainfall simulations, at local scale, were needed. A statistical downscaling method was used to downscale five global climate model (GCM) scenarios to selected weather stations. The downscaled meteorological variables included surface and upper-air hourly temperature, dew point, west-east and south-north winds, air pressure, and total cloud cover. These variables are necessary to project future daily rainfall quantities using within-weather-type rainfall simulation models. A model result verification process has been built into the whole exercise, including rainfall simulation modeling and the development of downscaling transfer functions. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables simulated by the models, showed a very good agreement. To effectively evaluate heavy rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses, a rainfall index was developed considering rainfall intensity and duration. The index was evaluated to link with insurance data as to determination of a critical threshold of the rainfall index for triggering high numbers of rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses. The relationship between rainfall index and insurance data was used with future rainfall simulations to project changes in future heavy rainfall-related sewer flood risks in terms of water damage insurance claims and incurred losses. The modeled results showed that, averaged over the five GCM scenarios and across the study area, both the monthly total number of rainfall-related water damage claims and incurred losses could increase by about 13%, 20% and 30% for the periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100, respectively (from the four-city seasonal average of 12 ± 1.7 thousand claims and $88 ± $21 million during April-September 1992-2002). Within the context of this study, increases in the future number of insurance claims and incurred losses in the study area are driven by only increases in future heavy rainfall events.展开更多
Due to the record-breaking wildfires that occurred in Canada in 2023,unprecedented quantities of air pollutants and greenhouse gases were released into the atmosphere.The wildfires had emitted more than 1.3 Pg CO_(2)a...Due to the record-breaking wildfires that occurred in Canada in 2023,unprecedented quantities of air pollutants and greenhouse gases were released into the atmosphere.The wildfires had emitted more than 1.3 Pg CO_(2)and 0.14 Pg CO_(2)equivalent of other greenhouse gases(GHG)including CH4 and N_(2)O as of 31 August.The wildfire-related GHG emissions constituted more than doubled Canada’s planned cumulative anthropogenic emissions reductions in 10 years,which represents a significant challenge to climate mitigation efforts.The model simulations showed that the Canadian wildfires impacted not only the local air quality but also that of most areas in the northern hemisphere due to long-range transport,causing severe PM_(2.5)pollution in the northeastern United States and increasing daily mean PM_(2.5)concentration in northwestern China by up to 2μg m-3.The observed maximum daily mean PM_(2.5)concentration in New York City reached 148.3μg m-3,which was their worst air quality in more than 50 years,nearly 10 times that of the air quality guideline(i.e.,15μg m-3)issued by the World Health Organization(WHO).Aside from the direct emissions from forest fires,the peat fires beneath the surface might smolder for several months or even longer and release substantial amounts of CO_(2).The substantial amounts of greenhouse gases from forest and peat fires might contribute to the positive feedback to the climate,potentially accelerating global warming.To better understand the comprehensive environmental effects of wildfires and their interactions with the climate system,more detailed research based on advanced observations and Earth System Models is essential.展开更多
This article analyzes Canada’s economic system from a systems thinking perspective.The content includes patterns of public choice(party system and power distribution),organizational framework of decision-making arran...This article analyzes Canada’s economic system from a systems thinking perspective.The content includes patterns of public choice(party system and power distribution),organizational framework of decision-making arrangements,information provision and coordination mechanisms,property rights system,incentive system,and welfare system.Canada’s economic system significantly influences the development of the Canadian economy,and its economic system arrangements hold reference significance for other developed and developing countries.展开更多
Climate change has an impact on various climatic variables. In this study our focus is mainly on temperature characteristics of climate parameter. In temperate and humid regions like southern Ontario, the effect of cl...Climate change has an impact on various climatic variables. In this study our focus is mainly on temperature characteristics of climate parameter. In temperate and humid regions like southern Ontario, the effect of climate change on Frost-free days in winter is distinctive. The average annual temperature is going upward but the extreme increase is in the winter temperature. Winter average temperature is going up by about 2˚C. However, extreme daily minimum temperature is going up by more than 3˚C. This climate effect has a great impact on the nature of precipitation and length of frost-free days. The snowfall over winter months is decreasing and the rainfall is increasing. However, the number of frost-free days during late fall months, early winter months, late winter months and early spring months are increasing. This result reveals an increase in length of the growing season. This research focuses on the effect of change in climatic variables on Frost-free days in Southern Ontario. Therefore, special attention should be given to the effect of change in climate Frost-free conditions on length of crop growing in winter season for potential investigation.展开更多
In this work we analyze the supply of biomass from field to an in-land or port destination. The biomass is pelletized to increase its bulk density to extend its storage period and for ease of its transport. The pellet...In this work we analyze the supply of biomass from field to an in-land or port destination. The biomass is pelletized to increase its bulk density to extend its storage period and for ease of its transport. The pellet may be used for conversion to chemicals and animal bedding or for straight combustion. We analyzed supply chain in Saskatchewan where there are plenty of crop residues but widely dispersed and harvest seasons are short. We envisioned that the farmer collects bales from field and transports the bales to farmstead during the harvest season. The bales are then processed into pellets using small scale pellet equipment. A custom operator with expertise in pelletization may engage in handling and densifying the biomass. The business case for the mobile mill will be similar to the well established custom grain and forage harvesting operations. The pellets are stored in hopper bottom grain bins at the farmstead. From this point, the handling of pellets would be similar to the handling and marketing of grain. The farmer trucks a specified volume of pellets from farmstead to the nearest elevator where the pellets are transferred to larger bins or silos. Pellets are extracted from silos and loaded onto the rail cars. The Canadian freight rail companies (mainly CN) currently transport over 3 million dry tonne (dt) of wood pellets in rail cars. The pellets are hauled to marine ports on the West Coast or East Coast for export. The cost of delivering ag pellets to biorefinery or to the shipping port is $86.09/dt. This cost does not include the equivalent value of removing biomass from the farm (e.g. fertilizer replacement) and return on investment. The GHG emissions to produce and transport ag pellets add up to 185.9 kg of CO<sub>2</sub> per dt of biomass. The cost of producing pellets without drying feedstock is $35.05/dt and the corresponding GHG for palletization amounts $146.30/dt.展开更多
The oil sands deposits in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) comprise of at least 85% of the total immobile bitumen in place in the world and are so concentrated as to be virtually the only such deposits th...The oil sands deposits in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) comprise of at least 85% of the total immobile bitumen in place in the world and are so concentrated as to be virtually the only such deposits that are economically recoverable for conversion to oil. The major deposits are in three geographic and geologic regions of Alberta: Athabasca, Cold Lake and Peace River. The bitumen reserves have oil gravities ranging from 8 to 12° API, and are hosted in the reservoirs of varying age, ranging from Devonian (Grosmont Formation) to Early Cretaceous (Mannville Group). They were derived from light oils in the southern Alberta and migrated to the north and east for over 100 km during the Laramide Orogeny, which was responsible for the uplift of the Rocky Mountains. Biodegradation is the only process that transforms light oil into bitumen in such a dramatic way that overshadowed other alterations with minor contributions. The levels of biodegradation in the basin increasing from west (non-biodegraded) to east (extremely biodegraded) can be attributed to decreasing reservoir temperature, which played the primary role in controlling the biodegradation regime. Once the reservoir was heated to approximately 80℃, it was pasteurized and no biodegradation would further occur. However, reservoir temperature could not alone predict the variations of the oil composition and physical properties. Compositional gradients and a wide range ofbiodegradation degree at single reservoir column indicate that the water-leg size or the volume ratio of oil to water is one of the critical local controls for the vertical variations ofbiodegradation degree and oil physical properties. Late charging and mixing of the fresh and degraded oils ultimately dictate the final distribution of compositions and physical properties found in the heavy oil and oil sand fields. Oil geochemistry can reveal precisely the processes and levels that control these variations in a given field, which opens the possibility of model-driven prediction of oil properties and sweet spots in reservoirs.展开更多
Changes in the form of precipitation have a considerable impact on the Arctic cryosphere and ecological system by influencing the energy balance and surface runoff. In this study, station observations and ERA-Interim ...Changes in the form of precipitation have a considerable impact on the Arctic cryosphere and ecological system by influencing the energy balance and surface runoff. In this study, station observations and ERA-Interim data were used to analyze changes in the rainfall to precipitation ratio(RPR) in northern Canada during the spring–summer season(March–July)from 1979–2015. Our results indicate that ERA-Interim describes the spring–summer variations and trends in temperature and the RPR well. Both the spring–summer mean temperature [0.4℃–1℃(10 yr)^(-1)] and the RPR [2%–6%(10 yr)^(-1)] increased significantly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 1979–2015. Moreover, we suggest that, aside from the contribution of climate warming, the North Atlantic Oscillation is probably another key factor influencing temporal and spatial differences in the RPR over northern Canada.展开更多
Objective: Analysis of clinical documents such as bone mineral density (BMD) reports is an important component of program evaluation because it can provide insights into the accuracy of assessment of fracture risk com...Objective: Analysis of clinical documents such as bone mineral density (BMD) reports is an important component of program evaluation because it can provide insights into the accuracy of assessment of fracture risk communicated to patients and practitioners. Our objective was to compare fracture risk calculations from BMD test reports to those based on the 2010 Canadian guidelines. Methods: We retrieved BMD reports from fragility fracture patients screened through a community hospital fracture clinic participating in Ontario’s Fracture Clinic Screening Program. Fracture risk was determined according to the 2010 Canadian guidelines using age, sex, and T-score at the femoral neck, in addition to three clinical factors. Three researchers classified patients’ fracture risk until consensus was achieved. Results: We retrieved reports for 17 patients from nine different BMD clinics in the Greater Toronto Area. Each patient had a different primary care physician and all BMD tests were conducted after the 2010 Canadian guidelines were published. The fracture risk of 10 patients was misclassified with 9 of the 10 reports underestimating fracture risk. Nine reports acknowledged that the prevalence of a fragility fracture raised the risk category by one level but only four of these reports acknowledged that the patient had, or may have sustained, a fragility fracture. When we raised fracture risk by one level according to these reports, eight patients were still misclassified. Fracture risk in the majority of these patients remained underestimated. Inconsistent classification was found in the majority of cases where reports came from the same clinic. Four reports described risk levels for two different types of risk. Conclusions: More than half of patients received BMD reports which underestimated fracture risk. Bone health management recommendations based on falsely low fracture risk are likely to be sub-optimal.展开更多
Over the last 33 years,a network of climate stations has been set up at high altitude mountain permafrost sites from Plateau Mountain near Claresholm,Alberta,north to Sheldon Lake on the North Canol Road in the Yukon....Over the last 33 years,a network of climate stations has been set up at high altitude mountain permafrost sites from Plateau Mountain near Claresholm,Alberta,north to Sheldon Lake on the North Canol Road in the Yukon.Taken together with the data from the US National Weather Service and the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service,the results indicate a cooling of mean annual air temperature south of Calgary,no significant change in Calgary,a slight warming at Jasper,and a major warming at Summit Lake,west of Fort Nelson.In contrast,the south eastern and central Yukon show only a minor warming trend that lies well within the limits of a sixty-year record measured by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service.Along the Mackenzie valley and on the North Slope of Alaska,the mean annual air temperature is rising.Permafrost is aggrading on Plateau Mountain,degrading at Summit Lake,and appears to be stable in southern Yukon and southern Alaska.This is in contrast to the warming occurring on the Arctic coastal plain and along the Mackenzie valley.It therefore appears that changes in climate vary considera-bly from place to place,and even where warming may occur,it may not continue indefinitely.There has been a northward shift of the arctic front due to a weakening of air pressure in the Yukon and Alaska relative to the continental tropical(cT) and maritime polar(mT) air masses to the south.Any actual changes that may be occurring appear to undergo amplification along the Mackenzie valley and Arctic coastal plain and reduction by buffering in the interior Yukon and Alaskan mountains,a result of mi-cro-environmental factors.Continued,careful monitoring of the climate is required and needs to be expanded in the National Parks in the mountains in order to provide data on the changes that may be taking place.Such measurements can provide a sound basis for interpreting ecological and other climate-related data.The existing climate models are not working satisfactorily because we do not know enough about the causes and processes involved in climate change.Improved results can indicate where best to site structures such as pipelines so as to minimize maintenance costs.Models may also help explain why certain areas such as Beringia,which saw reduced climate change,acted as important refugia during the glaciations.展开更多
The available measurements of the geo-mechanical properties of rocks in Southern Ontario and the neighbouring regions (New York, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) are summarized and presente...The available measurements of the geo-mechanical properties of rocks in Southern Ontario and the neighbouring regions (New York, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) are summarized and presented. These measurements were compiled from available published data in the relevant literature and also from data that were collected from major underground projects in these regions. The compiled data are presented in three categories: measured in-situ stresses in different rock formations;calculated strength, stiffness and deformation including time-dependent deformation properties;and the measured dynamic properties of intact rock specimens from different rock formations in Southern Ontario and the neighbouring regions. The data presented in this paper can be used as a resource for preliminary evaluation of the geomechanical properties of the rocks in these regions. The presented geo-mechanical properties were generally obtained from in-situ measurements and from laboratory tests that were conducted on intact rock specimens from freshly excavated rock samples. Moreover, the time-dependent deformation properties of rocks in these regions were obtained from laboratory tests that were performed on intact rock specimens submerged in water. However, the influence of drilling fluids such as bentonite slurry and synthetic polymers solution, on the geo-mechanical properties of rocks is not evident and needs to be investigated.展开更多
Several decades of conventional oil and gas production in Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) have resulted in maturity of the basin, and attention is shifting to alternative hydrocarbon reservoir system, such as ...Several decades of conventional oil and gas production in Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) have resulted in maturity of the basin, and attention is shifting to alternative hydrocarbon reservoir system, such as tight gas reservoir of the Montney Formation, which consists of siltstone with subordinate interlaminated very fine-grained sandstone. The Montney Formation resource play is one of Canada’s prime unconventional hydrocarbon reservoir, with reserve estimate in British Columbia (Natural Gas reserve = 271 TCF), Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG = 12,647 million barrels), and oil reserve (29 million barrels). Based on sedimentological and ichnological criteria, five lithofacies associations were identified in the study interval: Lithofacies F-1 (organic rich, wavy to parallel laminated, black colored siltstone);Lithofacies F-2 (very fine-grained sandstone interbedded with siltstone);Lithofacies F-3A (bioturbated silty-sandstone attributed to the Skolithos ichnofacies);Lithofacies F-3B (bioturbated siltstone attributed to Cruziana ichnofacies);Lithofacies F-4 (dolomitic, very fine-grained sandstone);and Lithofacies F-5 (massive siltstone). The depositional environments interpreted for the Montney Formation in the study area are lower shoreface through proximal offshore to distal offshore settings. Rock-Eval data (hydrogen Index and Oxygen Index) shows that Montney sediments contains mostly gas prone Type III/IV with subordinate Type II kerogen, TOC ranges from 0.39 - 3.54 wt% with a rare spike of 10.9 wt% TOC along the Montney/Doig boundary. Vitrinite reflectance data and Tmax show that thermal maturity of the Montney Formation is in the realm of “peak gas” generation window. Despite the economic significance of the Montney unconventional “resource-play”, however, the location and predictability of the best reservoir interval remain conjectural in part because the lithologic variability of the optimum reservoir lithologies has not been adequately characterized. This study presents lithofacies and ichnofacies analyses of the Montney Formation coupled with Rock-Eval geochemistry to interpret the sedimentology, ichnology, and reservoir potential of the Montney Formation tight gas reservoir in Fort St. John study area (T86N, R23W and T74N, R13W), northeastern British Columbia, western Canada.展开更多
The Royal Military College of Canada, located on the north eastern shore of Lake Ontario, possesses an abundance of copper roofs and lacks surface water treatment prior to discharge into Lake Ontario. Rainwater, roof ...The Royal Military College of Canada, located on the north eastern shore of Lake Ontario, possesses an abundance of copper roofs and lacks surface water treatment prior to discharge into Lake Ontario. Rainwater, roof runoff and soil samples were collected and analyzed for copper and other parameters. Copper was consistently detected in runoff samples with average concentrations of 3200 ± 2100 μg/L. Multivariable linear regression analysis for a dependant copper runoff concentration yielded an adjusted R 2 value of 0.611, based on an independent variable model using minimum temperature, maximum temperature, total precipitation, and wind speed. Lake water samples taken in the vicinity of storm water outfalls draining areas with copper roofs ranged from 2.0 to 40 μg/L copper. Such data exceed the 2.0 μg/L Canadian Water Quality Guidelines for the Protection of Aquatic Life as outlined by the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME). Analysis of raw, filtered and digested forms suggested that the majority of copper present in runoff and lake water samples was in a dissolved form. The majority of soils taken in this study displayed copper concentrations below the 63 μg/g CCME residential/parkland land use limits. These findings suggested that ion exchange processes between runoff water and soil do not occur to a sufficient extent to elevate copper levels in soil. It may therefore be concluded that the eventual fate of copper, which is not discharged via storm water outfalls, is lost to the water table and Lake Ontario through the sub-soil.展开更多
The paper evaluates the ways in which Hamilton, Ontario’s three daily newspapers covered the influenza epidemic, 1918-1920. In Hamilton, the central aspect of influenza coverage was Dr. Roberts’ decision to close al...The paper evaluates the ways in which Hamilton, Ontario’s three daily newspapers covered the influenza epidemic, 1918-1920. In Hamilton, the central aspect of influenza coverage was Dr. Roberts’ decision to close all public meeting places twice during 1918. No other story but those connected to a public meeting ban could sustain interest. Thus, the story for the press was to be the ban: whether to ban, what to ban, to lift or not, to reimpose. The story monopolized influenza coverage to such an extent that traditional threads, such as morbidity and mortality and personal interest stories, received little attention. The ban, because it restricted personal freedoms and involved local politics and commerce, received extensive coverage. In the absence of a ban, the influenza story could fade out of the press even during some of the most virulent periods of the epidemic. The paper finds that influenza was not transformative in Hamilton and in fact, demonstrated the viability of traditional charitable responses to disease. The actions carried out by Hamilton’s Board of Health cannot be considered “modern” as its methods were more akin to the nineteenth century than those of the later bacteriological age.展开更多
This paper reviews the conservation and reuse of industrial heritages at home and abroad, analyzes the status of the conservation and reuse of industrial heritages from four aspects, namely architectural format, archi...This paper reviews the conservation and reuse of industrial heritages at home and abroad, analyzes the status of the conservation and reuse of industrial heritages from four aspects, namely architectural format, architectural style and features, transport system, landscape sign and natural environment on the basis of a case study of Granville Island in Canada, and summarizes its experience in preservation and reuse, with a view to providing constructive reference for the conservation and reuse of domestic industrial heritages.展开更多
文摘The paper forms the second part of an introduction to possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes in the Province of Ontario, Canada. Daily streamflow simulation models developed in the companion paper (Part I) were used to project changes in frequency of future daily streamflow events. To achieve this goal, future climate information (including rainfall) at a local scale is needed. A regression-based downscaling method was employed to downscale eight global climate model (GCM) simulations (scenarios A2 and B1) to selected weather stations for various meteorological variables (except rainfall). Future daily rainfall quantities were projected using daily rainfall simulation models with downscaled future climate information. Following these projections, future daily streamflow volumes can be projected by applying daily streamflow simulation models. The frequency of future daily high-streamflow events in the warm season (May–November) was projected to increase by about 45%-55% late this century from the current condition, on average of eight-GCM A2 projections and four selected river basins. The corresponding increases for future daily low-streamflow events and future daily mean streamflow volume could be about 25%-90% and 10%-20%, respectively. In addition, the return values of annual one-day maximum streamflow volume for various return periods were projected to increase by 20%-40%, 20%-50%, and 30%-80%, respectively for the periods 2001-50, 2026-75, and 2051-2100. Inter-GCM and interscenario uncertainties of future streamflow projections were quantitatively assessed. On average, the projected percentage increases in frequency of future daily high-streamflow events are about 1.4-2.2 times greater than inter-GCM and interscenario uncertainties.
文摘The paper forms the first part of an introduction to possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes in the Province of Ontario, Canada. In this study, both conceptual and statistical streamflow simulation modeling theories were collectively applied to simulate daily streamflow volumes. Based on conceptual rainfall-runoff modeling principle, the predictors were selected to take into account several physical factors that affect streamflow, such as (1) current and previous quantities of rainfall over the watershed, (2) an index of pre-storm moisture conditions, (3) an index of pre-storm evapotranspiration capacities, and (4) a seasonal factor representing seasonal variation of streamflow volume. These rainfall-runoff conceptual factors were applied to an autocorrelation correction regression procedure to develop a daily streamflow simulation model for each of the four selected river basins. The streamflow simulation models were validated using a leave-one-year-out cross-validation scheme. The simulation models identified that the explanatory predictors are consistent with the physical processes typically associated with high-streamflow events. Daily streamflow simulation models show that there are significant correlations between daily streamflow observations and model validations, with model R2s of 0.68-0.71, 0.61-0.62, 0.71-0.74, and 0.95 for Grand, Humber, Upper Thames, and Rideau River Basins, respectively. The major reason for the model performance varying across the basins might be that rainfall-runoff response time and physical characteristics differ significantly among the selected river basins. The results suggest that streamflow simulation models can be used to assess possible impacts of climate change on daily streamflow and extremes at a local scale, which is major objective of a companion paper (Part II).
文摘This paper presents a hydro-geophysical investigation into the landfill leachate distribution and subsurface geology at a closed site in southwestern Ontario, Canada, using geophysical mapping and hydrological modeling approaches. Conductivity mapping was first conducted over the study site using a frequency-domain EM terrain conductivity meter, revealing an anomalous high-con- ductivity zone of about 200 m (S-N) × 80 m (W-E) at the western half of the site. The DC resistivity survey was then carried out at this anomalous zone with eight S-N profiles and three W-E profiles measuring 200m in length using a Wenner-α configuration. Our resistivity survey results indicate that the landfill leachate travels mainly south-east wards over the upper aquifer, with a minor vertical component into the upper weathered portion of the silt/sand aquitard at some locations. No contamination seems to exist in the lower sand aquifer. The geophysical results were later used to develop two conceptualized models for hydrological modeling. Our numerical results predict the leachate distribution at the study site in the future, confirming that the contaminant will occupy the entire upper aquifer and the most of the aquitard in a time of 1000 years, and that the barrier of the aquitard will protect the lower sand aquifer from the leachate pollution. These findings are critical in evaluating the current leachate conditions and the existing compliance monitoring plan for potential implementation at this study site and other sites in elsewhere.
文摘The abundance and size composition of stream isopods Lirceusfontinalis were investigated from April 2001 to August 2002 in 3 streams in southem Ontario, Canada. Effects of current speed was released from the analysis by choosing slow flowing water. The effects of substrate, season and water depth on the abundance, distribution and size composition of the isopods were analyzed. It was found that substrate and season influence isopods the most. The rocky substrate with attached filamentous macro-algae contains an isopod abundance 7.05 times that of bare rock substrate and 14.6 times that of free-sand and mud substrate. There was a large variation with respect to seasonali .ty in both abundance and size composition of the isopods, with the highest abundance occumng in summer and the lowest in winter and spring; individual isopods also tend to be larger in the winter and spring. In all substrates, shallow areas tend to support higher densities of isopods than deeper areas.
文摘The objective of this paper was to project possible impacts of climate change on heavy rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses for four selected cites (Kitchener-Waterloo, London, Ottawa, and Toronto) located at Ontario, Canada. To achieve this goal, the future climate change scenarios and rainfall simulations, at local scale, were needed. A statistical downscaling method was used to downscale five global climate model (GCM) scenarios to selected weather stations. The downscaled meteorological variables included surface and upper-air hourly temperature, dew point, west-east and south-north winds, air pressure, and total cloud cover. These variables are necessary to project future daily rainfall quantities using within-weather-type rainfall simulation models. A model result verification process has been built into the whole exercise, including rainfall simulation modeling and the development of downscaling transfer functions. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables simulated by the models, showed a very good agreement. To effectively evaluate heavy rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses, a rainfall index was developed considering rainfall intensity and duration. The index was evaluated to link with insurance data as to determination of a critical threshold of the rainfall index for triggering high numbers of rainfall-related water damage insurance claims and incurred losses. The relationship between rainfall index and insurance data was used with future rainfall simulations to project changes in future heavy rainfall-related sewer flood risks in terms of water damage insurance claims and incurred losses. The modeled results showed that, averaged over the five GCM scenarios and across the study area, both the monthly total number of rainfall-related water damage claims and incurred losses could increase by about 13%, 20% and 30% for the periods 2016-2035, 2046-2065, and 2081-2100, respectively (from the four-city seasonal average of 12 ± 1.7 thousand claims and $88 ± $21 million during April-September 1992-2002). Within the context of this study, increases in the future number of insurance claims and incurred losses in the study area are driven by only increases in future heavy rainfall events.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.92044302)the National Key Research and Development Program(Grant Nos.2020YFA0607801,2022YFE0106500)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Numerical Simulation Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘Due to the record-breaking wildfires that occurred in Canada in 2023,unprecedented quantities of air pollutants and greenhouse gases were released into the atmosphere.The wildfires had emitted more than 1.3 Pg CO_(2)and 0.14 Pg CO_(2)equivalent of other greenhouse gases(GHG)including CH4 and N_(2)O as of 31 August.The wildfire-related GHG emissions constituted more than doubled Canada’s planned cumulative anthropogenic emissions reductions in 10 years,which represents a significant challenge to climate mitigation efforts.The model simulations showed that the Canadian wildfires impacted not only the local air quality but also that of most areas in the northern hemisphere due to long-range transport,causing severe PM_(2.5)pollution in the northeastern United States and increasing daily mean PM_(2.5)concentration in northwestern China by up to 2μg m-3.The observed maximum daily mean PM_(2.5)concentration in New York City reached 148.3μg m-3,which was their worst air quality in more than 50 years,nearly 10 times that of the air quality guideline(i.e.,15μg m-3)issued by the World Health Organization(WHO).Aside from the direct emissions from forest fires,the peat fires beneath the surface might smolder for several months or even longer and release substantial amounts of CO_(2).The substantial amounts of greenhouse gases from forest and peat fires might contribute to the positive feedback to the climate,potentially accelerating global warming.To better understand the comprehensive environmental effects of wildfires and their interactions with the climate system,more detailed research based on advanced observations and Earth System Models is essential.
文摘This article analyzes Canada’s economic system from a systems thinking perspective.The content includes patterns of public choice(party system and power distribution),organizational framework of decision-making arrangements,information provision and coordination mechanisms,property rights system,incentive system,and welfare system.Canada’s economic system significantly influences the development of the Canadian economy,and its economic system arrangements hold reference significance for other developed and developing countries.
文摘Climate change has an impact on various climatic variables. In this study our focus is mainly on temperature characteristics of climate parameter. In temperate and humid regions like southern Ontario, the effect of climate change on Frost-free days in winter is distinctive. The average annual temperature is going upward but the extreme increase is in the winter temperature. Winter average temperature is going up by about 2˚C. However, extreme daily minimum temperature is going up by more than 3˚C. This climate effect has a great impact on the nature of precipitation and length of frost-free days. The snowfall over winter months is decreasing and the rainfall is increasing. However, the number of frost-free days during late fall months, early winter months, late winter months and early spring months are increasing. This result reveals an increase in length of the growing season. This research focuses on the effect of change in climatic variables on Frost-free days in Southern Ontario. Therefore, special attention should be given to the effect of change in climate Frost-free conditions on length of crop growing in winter season for potential investigation.
文摘In this work we analyze the supply of biomass from field to an in-land or port destination. The biomass is pelletized to increase its bulk density to extend its storage period and for ease of its transport. The pellet may be used for conversion to chemicals and animal bedding or for straight combustion. We analyzed supply chain in Saskatchewan where there are plenty of crop residues but widely dispersed and harvest seasons are short. We envisioned that the farmer collects bales from field and transports the bales to farmstead during the harvest season. The bales are then processed into pellets using small scale pellet equipment. A custom operator with expertise in pelletization may engage in handling and densifying the biomass. The business case for the mobile mill will be similar to the well established custom grain and forage harvesting operations. The pellets are stored in hopper bottom grain bins at the farmstead. From this point, the handling of pellets would be similar to the handling and marketing of grain. The farmer trucks a specified volume of pellets from farmstead to the nearest elevator where the pellets are transferred to larger bins or silos. Pellets are extracted from silos and loaded onto the rail cars. The Canadian freight rail companies (mainly CN) currently transport over 3 million dry tonne (dt) of wood pellets in rail cars. The pellets are hauled to marine ports on the West Coast or East Coast for export. The cost of delivering ag pellets to biorefinery or to the shipping port is $86.09/dt. This cost does not include the equivalent value of removing biomass from the farm (e.g. fertilizer replacement) and return on investment. The GHG emissions to produce and transport ag pellets add up to 185.9 kg of CO<sub>2</sub> per dt of biomass. The cost of producing pellets without drying feedstock is $35.05/dt and the corresponding GHG for palletization amounts $146.30/dt.
文摘The oil sands deposits in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) comprise of at least 85% of the total immobile bitumen in place in the world and are so concentrated as to be virtually the only such deposits that are economically recoverable for conversion to oil. The major deposits are in three geographic and geologic regions of Alberta: Athabasca, Cold Lake and Peace River. The bitumen reserves have oil gravities ranging from 8 to 12° API, and are hosted in the reservoirs of varying age, ranging from Devonian (Grosmont Formation) to Early Cretaceous (Mannville Group). They were derived from light oils in the southern Alberta and migrated to the north and east for over 100 km during the Laramide Orogeny, which was responsible for the uplift of the Rocky Mountains. Biodegradation is the only process that transforms light oil into bitumen in such a dramatic way that overshadowed other alterations with minor contributions. The levels of biodegradation in the basin increasing from west (non-biodegraded) to east (extremely biodegraded) can be attributed to decreasing reservoir temperature, which played the primary role in controlling the biodegradation regime. Once the reservoir was heated to approximately 80℃, it was pasteurized and no biodegradation would further occur. However, reservoir temperature could not alone predict the variations of the oil composition and physical properties. Compositional gradients and a wide range ofbiodegradation degree at single reservoir column indicate that the water-leg size or the volume ratio of oil to water is one of the critical local controls for the vertical variations ofbiodegradation degree and oil physical properties. Late charging and mixing of the fresh and degraded oils ultimately dictate the final distribution of compositions and physical properties found in the heavy oil and oil sand fields. Oil geochemistry can reveal precisely the processes and levels that control these variations in a given field, which opens the possibility of model-driven prediction of oil properties and sweet spots in reservoirs.
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2013CBA01804)the National Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41425003 and 41401079)+2 种基金the State Oceanic Administration of the People’s Republic of China Project on Climate in Polar Regions(Grant No.CHINARE2016-2020)the Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.KJZD-EW-G03)the Opening Founding of the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences(Grant No.SKLCS-OP-2016-03)
文摘Changes in the form of precipitation have a considerable impact on the Arctic cryosphere and ecological system by influencing the energy balance and surface runoff. In this study, station observations and ERA-Interim data were used to analyze changes in the rainfall to precipitation ratio(RPR) in northern Canada during the spring–summer season(March–July)from 1979–2015. Our results indicate that ERA-Interim describes the spring–summer variations and trends in temperature and the RPR well. Both the spring–summer mean temperature [0.4℃–1℃(10 yr)^(-1)] and the RPR [2%–6%(10 yr)^(-1)] increased significantly in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from 1979–2015. Moreover, we suggest that, aside from the contribution of climate warming, the North Atlantic Oscillation is probably another key factor influencing temporal and spatial differences in the RPR over northern Canada.
文摘Objective: Analysis of clinical documents such as bone mineral density (BMD) reports is an important component of program evaluation because it can provide insights into the accuracy of assessment of fracture risk communicated to patients and practitioners. Our objective was to compare fracture risk calculations from BMD test reports to those based on the 2010 Canadian guidelines. Methods: We retrieved BMD reports from fragility fracture patients screened through a community hospital fracture clinic participating in Ontario’s Fracture Clinic Screening Program. Fracture risk was determined according to the 2010 Canadian guidelines using age, sex, and T-score at the femoral neck, in addition to three clinical factors. Three researchers classified patients’ fracture risk until consensus was achieved. Results: We retrieved reports for 17 patients from nine different BMD clinics in the Greater Toronto Area. Each patient had a different primary care physician and all BMD tests were conducted after the 2010 Canadian guidelines were published. The fracture risk of 10 patients was misclassified with 9 of the 10 reports underestimating fracture risk. Nine reports acknowledged that the prevalence of a fragility fracture raised the risk category by one level but only four of these reports acknowledged that the patient had, or may have sustained, a fragility fracture. When we raised fracture risk by one level according to these reports, eight patients were still misclassified. Fracture risk in the majority of these patients remained underestimated. Inconsistent classification was found in the majority of cases where reports came from the same clinic. Four reports described risk levels for two different types of risk. Conclusions: More than half of patients received BMD reports which underestimated fracture risk. Bone health management recommendations based on falsely low fracture risk are likely to be sub-optimal.
基金Roger J. E. Brown of the Building Research Division, National Research Council of Canada funded the original studyby the Geological Survey of Canada (Alan Heginbottom and Sharon Smith)NSERC Operating Grant A-7483
文摘Over the last 33 years,a network of climate stations has been set up at high altitude mountain permafrost sites from Plateau Mountain near Claresholm,Alberta,north to Sheldon Lake on the North Canol Road in the Yukon.Taken together with the data from the US National Weather Service and the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service,the results indicate a cooling of mean annual air temperature south of Calgary,no significant change in Calgary,a slight warming at Jasper,and a major warming at Summit Lake,west of Fort Nelson.In contrast,the south eastern and central Yukon show only a minor warming trend that lies well within the limits of a sixty-year record measured by the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service.Along the Mackenzie valley and on the North Slope of Alaska,the mean annual air temperature is rising.Permafrost is aggrading on Plateau Mountain,degrading at Summit Lake,and appears to be stable in southern Yukon and southern Alaska.This is in contrast to the warming occurring on the Arctic coastal plain and along the Mackenzie valley.It therefore appears that changes in climate vary considera-bly from place to place,and even where warming may occur,it may not continue indefinitely.There has been a northward shift of the arctic front due to a weakening of air pressure in the Yukon and Alaska relative to the continental tropical(cT) and maritime polar(mT) air masses to the south.Any actual changes that may be occurring appear to undergo amplification along the Mackenzie valley and Arctic coastal plain and reduction by buffering in the interior Yukon and Alaskan mountains,a result of mi-cro-environmental factors.Continued,careful monitoring of the climate is required and needs to be expanded in the National Parks in the mountains in order to provide data on the changes that may be taking place.Such measurements can provide a sound basis for interpreting ecological and other climate-related data.The existing climate models are not working satisfactorily because we do not know enough about the causes and processes involved in climate change.Improved results can indicate where best to site structures such as pipelines so as to minimize maintenance costs.Models may also help explain why certain areas such as Beringia,which saw reduced climate change,acted as important refugia during the glaciations.
文摘The available measurements of the geo-mechanical properties of rocks in Southern Ontario and the neighbouring regions (New York, Ohio, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Minnesota) are summarized and presented. These measurements were compiled from available published data in the relevant literature and also from data that were collected from major underground projects in these regions. The compiled data are presented in three categories: measured in-situ stresses in different rock formations;calculated strength, stiffness and deformation including time-dependent deformation properties;and the measured dynamic properties of intact rock specimens from different rock formations in Southern Ontario and the neighbouring regions. The data presented in this paper can be used as a resource for preliminary evaluation of the geomechanical properties of the rocks in these regions. The presented geo-mechanical properties were generally obtained from in-situ measurements and from laboratory tests that were conducted on intact rock specimens from freshly excavated rock samples. Moreover, the time-dependent deformation properties of rocks in these regions were obtained from laboratory tests that were performed on intact rock specimens submerged in water. However, the influence of drilling fluids such as bentonite slurry and synthetic polymers solution, on the geo-mechanical properties of rocks is not evident and needs to be investigated.
文摘Several decades of conventional oil and gas production in Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) have resulted in maturity of the basin, and attention is shifting to alternative hydrocarbon reservoir system, such as tight gas reservoir of the Montney Formation, which consists of siltstone with subordinate interlaminated very fine-grained sandstone. The Montney Formation resource play is one of Canada’s prime unconventional hydrocarbon reservoir, with reserve estimate in British Columbia (Natural Gas reserve = 271 TCF), Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG = 12,647 million barrels), and oil reserve (29 million barrels). Based on sedimentological and ichnological criteria, five lithofacies associations were identified in the study interval: Lithofacies F-1 (organic rich, wavy to parallel laminated, black colored siltstone);Lithofacies F-2 (very fine-grained sandstone interbedded with siltstone);Lithofacies F-3A (bioturbated silty-sandstone attributed to the Skolithos ichnofacies);Lithofacies F-3B (bioturbated siltstone attributed to Cruziana ichnofacies);Lithofacies F-4 (dolomitic, very fine-grained sandstone);and Lithofacies F-5 (massive siltstone). The depositional environments interpreted for the Montney Formation in the study area are lower shoreface through proximal offshore to distal offshore settings. Rock-Eval data (hydrogen Index and Oxygen Index) shows that Montney sediments contains mostly gas prone Type III/IV with subordinate Type II kerogen, TOC ranges from 0.39 - 3.54 wt% with a rare spike of 10.9 wt% TOC along the Montney/Doig boundary. Vitrinite reflectance data and Tmax show that thermal maturity of the Montney Formation is in the realm of “peak gas” generation window. Despite the economic significance of the Montney unconventional “resource-play”, however, the location and predictability of the best reservoir interval remain conjectural in part because the lithologic variability of the optimum reservoir lithologies has not been adequately characterized. This study presents lithofacies and ichnofacies analyses of the Montney Formation coupled with Rock-Eval geochemistry to interpret the sedimentology, ichnology, and reservoir potential of the Montney Formation tight gas reservoir in Fort St. John study area (T86N, R23W and T74N, R13W), northeastern British Columbia, western Canada.
文摘The Royal Military College of Canada, located on the north eastern shore of Lake Ontario, possesses an abundance of copper roofs and lacks surface water treatment prior to discharge into Lake Ontario. Rainwater, roof runoff and soil samples were collected and analyzed for copper and other parameters. Copper was consistently detected in runoff samples with average concentrations of 3200 ± 2100 μg/L. Multivariable linear regression analysis for a dependant copper runoff concentration yielded an adjusted R 2 value of 0.611, based on an independent variable model using minimum temperature, maximum temperature, total precipitation, and wind speed. Lake water samples taken in the vicinity of storm water outfalls draining areas with copper roofs ranged from 2.0 to 40 μg/L copper. Such data exceed the 2.0 μg/L Canadian Water Quality Guidelines for the Protection of Aquatic Life as outlined by the Canadian Council of Ministers of the Environment (CCME). Analysis of raw, filtered and digested forms suggested that the majority of copper present in runoff and lake water samples was in a dissolved form. The majority of soils taken in this study displayed copper concentrations below the 63 μg/g CCME residential/parkland land use limits. These findings suggested that ion exchange processes between runoff water and soil do not occur to a sufficient extent to elevate copper levels in soil. It may therefore be concluded that the eventual fate of copper, which is not discharged via storm water outfalls, is lost to the water table and Lake Ontario through the sub-soil.
文摘The paper evaluates the ways in which Hamilton, Ontario’s three daily newspapers covered the influenza epidemic, 1918-1920. In Hamilton, the central aspect of influenza coverage was Dr. Roberts’ decision to close all public meeting places twice during 1918. No other story but those connected to a public meeting ban could sustain interest. Thus, the story for the press was to be the ban: whether to ban, what to ban, to lift or not, to reimpose. The story monopolized influenza coverage to such an extent that traditional threads, such as morbidity and mortality and personal interest stories, received little attention. The ban, because it restricted personal freedoms and involved local politics and commerce, received extensive coverage. In the absence of a ban, the influenza story could fade out of the press even during some of the most virulent periods of the epidemic. The paper finds that influenza was not transformative in Hamilton and in fact, demonstrated the viability of traditional charitable responses to disease. The actions carried out by Hamilton’s Board of Health cannot be considered “modern” as its methods were more akin to the nineteenth century than those of the later bacteriological age.
文摘This paper reviews the conservation and reuse of industrial heritages at home and abroad, analyzes the status of the conservation and reuse of industrial heritages from four aspects, namely architectural format, architectural style and features, transport system, landscape sign and natural environment on the basis of a case study of Granville Island in Canada, and summarizes its experience in preservation and reuse, with a view to providing constructive reference for the conservation and reuse of domestic industrial heritages.