SAMPLING INSPECTION OF RELIABILITY IN (LOG)NORMAL CASE WITH TYPE I CENSORING

This article proposes a statistical method for working out reliability sampling plans under Type I censored sample for items whose failure times have either normal or lognormal distributions. The quality statistic is a method of moments estimator of a monotonous function of the unreliability. An approach of choosing a truncation time is recommended. The sample size and acceptability constant are approximately determined by using the Cornish-Fisher expansion for quantiles of distribution. Simulation results show that the method given in this article is feasible.

Reliability Analysis of HEE Parameters via Progressive Type-II Censoring with Applications

A new extended exponential lifetime model called Harris extended-exponential(HEE)distribution for data modelling with increasing and decreasing hazard rate shapes has been considered.In the reliability context,researchers prefer to use censoring plans to collect data in order to achieve a compromise between total test time and/or test sample size.So,this study considers both maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimates of the Harris extended-exponential distribution parameters and some of its reliability indices using a progressive Type-II censoring strategy.Under the premise of independent gamma priors,the Bayesian estimation is created using the squared-error and general entropy loss functions.Due to the challenging form of the joint posterior distribution,to evaluate the Bayes estimates,samples from the full conditional distributions are generated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques.For each unknown parameter,the highest posterior density credible intervals and asymptotic confidence intervals are also determined.Through a simulated study,the usefulness of the various suggested strategies is assessed.The optimal progressive censoring plans are also shown,and various optimality criteria are investigated.Two actual data sets,taken from engineering and veterinary medicine areas,are analyzed to show how the offered point and interval estimators can be used in practice and to verify that the proposed model furnishes a good fit than other lifetimemodels:alpha power exponential,generalized-exponential,Nadarajah-Haghighi,Weibull,Lomax,gamma and exponential distributions.Numerical evaluations revealed that in the presence of progressively Type-II censored data,the Bayes estimation method against the squared-error(symmetric)loss is advised for getting the point and interval estimates of the HEE distribution.

A statistical inference for generalized Rayleigh model under Type-Ⅱ progressive censoring with binomial removals

This paper considers the parameters and reliability characteristics estimation problem of the generalized Rayleigh distribution under progressively Type-Ⅱ censoring with random removals,that is,the number of units removed at each failure time follows the binomial distribution.The maximum likelihood estimation and the Bayesian estimation are derived.In the meanwhile,through a great quantity of Monte Carlo simulation experiments we have studied different hyperparameters as well as symmetric and asymmetric loss functions in the Bayesian estimation procedure.A real industrial case is presented to justify and illustrate the proposed methods.We also investigate the expected experimentation time and discuss the influence of the parameters on the termination point to complete the censoring test.

An Efficient Method for Reliability-based Multidisciplinary Design Optimization

Design for modem engineering system is becoming multidisciplinary and incorporates practical uncertainties; therefore, it is necessary to synthesize reliability analysis and the multidisciplinary design optimization （MDO） techniques for the design of complex engineering system. An advanced first order second moment method-based concurrent subspace optimization approach is proposed based on the comparison and analysis of the existing multidisciplinary optimization techniques and the reliability analysis methods. It is seen through a canard configuration optimization for a three-surface transport that the proposed method is computationally efficient and practical with the least modification to the current deterministic optimization process.

Nonparametric Inference for the Stress-Strength Model under Right Censoring

The stress-strength model is widely applied in reliability. Observations are often subject to right censoring due to some practical limitations. In such circumstances, the statistical inference for the stress-strength model is demanding, although lacking. We propose a nonparametric method for the inference of the stress-strength model when the observations are subject to right censoring. The asymptotic properties are also established. The practical utility of the proposed method is assessed through both simulated and real data sets.

An analysis of quantitative PCR reliability through replicates using the C_(t)method

There is considerable interest in quantitatively measuring nucleic acids from single cells to small populations. The most commonly employed laboratory method is the real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analyzed with the crossing point or crossing threshold (Ct) method. Utilizing a multiwell plate reader we have performed hundreds of replicate reactions each at a set of initial conditions whose initial number of copies span a concentration range of ten orders of magnitude. The resultant Ct value distributions are analyzed with standard and novel statistical techniques to assess the variability/reliability of the PCR process. Our analysis supports the following conclusions. Given sufficient replicates, the mean and/or median Ct values are statistically distinguishable and can be rank ordered across ten orders of magnitude in initial template concentration. As expected, the variances in the Ct distributions grow as the number of initial copies declines to 1. We demonstrate that these variances are large enough to confound quantitative classi?cation of the initial condition at low template concentrations. The data indicate that a misclassi?cation transition is centered around 3000 initial copies of template DNA and that the transition region correlates with independent data on the thermal wear of the TAQ polymerase enzyme. We provide data that indicate that an alternative endpoint detection strategy based on the theory of well mixing and plate ?lling statistics is accurate below the mis- classi?cation transition where the real time method becomes unreliable.

RELIABILITY ANALYSIS OF FRP LAMINATED PLATES WITH CONSIDERATION OF BOTH INITIAL IMPERFECTION AND FAILURE SEQUENCE

A probabilistic progressive failure analyzing method is applied to estimating the reliability of a simply supported laminated composite plate with an initial imperfection under bi-axial compression load. The initial imperfection and the strength parameters are considered as random variables. Ply-level failure probability is evaluated by the first order reliability method (FORM) together with the Tsai-Wu strength criterion and Tan criterion. Current stresses in the laminated structure are calculated by the classical lamination theory with the stiffness modified based on the last step ply failure. Probabilistically dominant ply-level failure sequences leading to overall system failure are identified, based on which the system failure probability is estimated. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the methodology proposed. Through parameter studies it is shown that the deviation of the initial imperfection and some of the strength parameters largely influence the system reliability.

A modified method to calculate reliability index using maximum entropy principle

Routine reliability index method, first order second moment (FOSM), may not ensure convergence of iteration when the performance function is strongly nonlinear. A modified method was proposed to calculate reliability index based on maximum entropy (MaxEnt) principle. To achieve this goal, the complicated iteration of first order second moment (FOSM) method was replaced by the calculation of entropy density function. Local convergence of Newton iteration method utilized to calculate entropy density function was proved, which ensured the convergence of iteration when calculating reliability index. To promote calculation efficiency, Newton down-hill algorithm was incorporated into calculating entropy density function and Monte Carlo simulations (MCS) were performed to assess the efficiency of the presented method. Two numerical examples were presented to verify the validation of the presented method. Moreover, the execution and advantages of the presented method were explained. From Example 1, after seven times iteration, the proposed method is capable of calculating the reliability index when the performance function is strongly nonlinear and at the same time the proposed method can preserve the calculation accuracy; From Example 2, the reliability indices calculated using the proposed method, FOSM and MCS are 3.823 9, 3.813 0 and 3.827 6, respectively, and the according iteration times are 5, 36 and 10 6 , which shows that the presented method can improve calculation accuracy without increasing computational cost for the performance function of which the reliability index can be calculated using first order second moment (FOSM) method.

Bayesian Reliability——Growth Analysis for Statistical of Diverse Population Based on Non-homogeneous Poisson Process

New armament systems are subjected to the method for dealing with multi-stage system reliability-growth statistical problems of diverse population in order to improve reliability before starting mass production. Aiming at the test process which is high expense and small sample-size in the development of complex system, the specific methods are studied on how to process the statistical information of Bayesian reliability growth regarding diverse populations. Firstly, according to the characteristics of reliability growth during product development, the Bayesian method is used to integrate the testing information of multi-stage and the order relations of distribution parameters. And then a Gamma-Beta prior distribution is proposed based on non-homogeneous Poisson process（NHPP） corresponding to the reliability growth process. The posterior distribution of reliability parameters is obtained regarding different stages of product, and the reliability parameters are evaluated based on the posterior distribution. Finally, Bayesian approach proposed in this paper for multi-stage reliability growth test is applied to the test process which is small sample-size in the astronautics filed. The results of a numerical example show that the presented model can make use of the diverse information synthetically, and pave the way for the application of the Bayesian model for multi-stage reliability growth test evaluation with small sample-size. The method is useful for evaluating multi-stage system reliability and making reliability growth plan rationally.

Extended research on software hybrid testing combining reliability and directed testing

The software reliability testing has many disadvantages in practice, such as high complexity of constructing operational profiles and poor fault detection efficiency. Oppositely, the directed testing with a high fault detection rate is incapable of estimating reliability quantificationally. To solve this problem, a hybrid testing combining reliability and directed testing as well as a reliability model based on the order statistic （OS） model were presented by Mitchell. An extended research on Mitchell＇s work is proposed. Firstly, the most proper distribution of the fault＇s failure rate which tends to be Iognormal is suggested, and a detailed form of the OS model based on Iognormal and the corresponding parameter estimation method are proposed, respectively. Secondly, an im- plementing framework for the hybrid testing is proposed. Finally, the hybrid testing and the OS model are applied on a real website system. The experimental results indicate： the hybrid testing has more efficient fault detection power and lower testing cost than the reliability testing; compared with three traditional software reliabil ity growth models, the OS model has a best or pretty estimation or prediction power for each data set; and for the failure data set collected from hybrid testing, the OS model also achieves an ac- ceptable estimation result.

Target reliability index for serviceability limit state of single piles

The objective is to develop an approach for the determination of the target reliability index for serviceability limit state(SLS) of single piles. This contributes to conducting the SLS reliability-based design(RBD) of piles. Based on a two-parameter,hyperbolic curve-fitting equation describing the load-settlement relation of piles, the SLS model factor is defined. Then, taking into account the uncertainties of load-settlement model, load and bearing capacity of piles, the formula for computing the SLS reliability index(βsls) is obtained using the mean value first order second moment(MVFOSM) method. Meanwhile, the limit state function for conducting the SLS reliability analysis by the Monte Carlo simulation(MCS) method is established. These two methods are finally applied to determine the SLS target reliability index. Herein, the limiting tolerable settlement(slt) is treated as a random variable. For illustration, four load test databases from South Africa are compiled again to conduct reliability analysis and present the recommended target reliability indices. The results indicate that the MVFOSM method overestimates βsls compared to that computed by the MCS method. Besides, both factor of safety(FS) and slt are key factors influencing βsls, so the combination of FS and βsls is welcome to be used for the SLS reliability analysis of piles when slt is determined. For smaller slt, pile types and soils conditions have significant influence on the SLS target reliability indices; for larger slt, slt is the major factor having influence on the SLS target reliability indices. This proves that slt is the most key parameter for the determination of the SLS target reliability index.

Effect of 2D spatial variability on slope reliability: A simplified FORM analysis

To meet the high demand for reliability based design of slopes, we present in this paper a simplified HLRF(Hasofere Linde Rackwitze Fiessler) iterative algorithm for first-order reliability method(FORM). It is simply formulated in x-space and requires neither transformation of correlated random variables nor optimization tools. The solution can be easily improved by iteratively adjusting the step length. The algorithm is particularly useful to practicing engineers for geotechnical reliability analysis where standalone(deterministic) numerical packages are used. Based on the proposed algorithm and through direct perturbation analysis of random variables, we conducted a case study of earth slope reliability with complete consideration of soil uncertainty and spatial variability.

A Censored Nonparametric Software Reliability Model

This paper analyses the effect of censoring on the estimation of failure rate, and presents a framework of a censored nonparametric software reliability model. The model is based on nonparametric testing of failure rate monotonically decreasing and weighted kernel failure rate estimation under the constraint of failure rate monotonically decreasing. Not only does the model have the advantages of little assumptions and weak constraints, but also the residual defects number of the software system can be estimated. The numerical experiment and real data analysis show that the model performs wdl with censored data.

An Explicit Iteration Algorithm for Structural Reliability and its Realization by MATLAB

Based on the improved first order second moment method of the structural reliability, an explicit iteration algorithm is proposed, which can avoid solving structural performance function to obtain reliability index β and have simple calculation forms. Finally, the validity of the explicit iteration algorithm is illustrated through two examples by MATLAB programming.

Assessment of buckling-restrained braced frame reliability using an experimental limit-state model and stochastic dynamic analysis

Buckling-restrained braces （BRBs） have recently become popular in the United States for use as primary members of seismic lateral-force-resisting systems. A BRB is a steel brace that does not buckle in compression but instead yields in both tension and compression. Although design guidelines for BRB applications have been developed, systematic procedures for assessing performance and quantifying reliability are still needed. This paper presents an analytical framework for assessing buckling-restrained braced frame （BRBF） reliability when subjected to seismic loads. This framework efficiently quantifies the risk of BRB failure due to low-cycle fatigue fracture of the BRB core. The procedure includes a series of components that： （1） quantify BRB demand in terms of BRB core deformation histories generated through stochastic dynamic analyses; （2） quantify the limit-state of a BRB in terms of its remaining cumulative plastic ductility capacity based on an experimental database; and （3） evaluate the probability of BRB failure, given the quantified demand and capacity, through structural reliability analyses. Parametric studies were conducted to investigate the effects of the seismic load, and characteristics of the BRB and BRBF on the probability of brace failure. In addition, fragility curves （i.e., conditional probabilities of brace failure given ground shaking intensity parameters） were created by the proposed framework. While the framework presented in this paper is applied to the assessment of BRBFs, the modular nature of the framework components allows for application to other structural components and systems.

Fuzzy stochastic generalized reliability studies on embankment systems based on first-order approximation theorem

In order to address the complex uncertainties caused by interfacing between the fuzziness and randomness of the safety problem for embankment engineering projects, and to evaluate the safety of embankment engineering projects more scientifically and reasonably, this study presents the fuzzy logic modeling of the stochastic finite element method （SFEM） based on the harmonious finite element （HFE） technique using a first-order approximation theorem. Fuzzy mathematical models of safety repertories were introduced into the SFEM to analyze the stability of embankments and foundations in order to describe the fuzzy failure procedure for the random safety performance function. The fuzzy models were developed with membership functions with half depressed gamma distribution, half depressed normal distribution, and half depressed echelon distribution. The fuzzy stochastic mathematical algorithm was used to comprehensively study the local failure mechanism of the main embankment section near Jingnan in the Yangtze River in terms of numerical analysis for the probability integration of reliability on the random field affected by three fuzzy factors. The result shows that the middle region of the embankment is the principal zone of concentrated failure due to local fractures. There is also some local shear failure on the embankment crust. This study provides a referential method for solving complex multi-uncertainty problems in engineering safety analysis.

Optimization design of piles subjected to horizontal loads based on reliability theory

Based on reliability theory,a general method for the optimization design of piles subjected to horizontal loads is presented.This method takes into consideration various uncertainties caused by pile installation,variability of geotechnical materials from one location to another,and so on.It also deals with behavior and side constraints specified by standard specifications for piles.To more accurately solve the optimization design model,the first order reliability method is employed.The results from the numerical example indicate that the target reliability index has significant influence on design parameters.In addition,the optimization weight increases with the target reliability index.Especially when the target reliability index is relatively large,the target reliability index has significant influence on design weight of piles.

Reliability-based concurrent subspace optimization method

To avoid the high computational cost and much modification in the process of applying traditional reliability-based design optimization method, a new reliability-based concurrent subspace optimization approach is proposed based on the comparison and analysis of the existing multidisciplinary optimization techniques and reliability assessment methods. It is shown through a canard configuration optimization for a three-surface transport that the proposed method is computationally efficient and practical with the least modification to the current deterministic optimization process.

The New Approximate Calculation Method for the First Order Reliability

The new method is presented for computing engineering structure reliability by direct searching the next checking point and accelerating convergence based on the analysis of errors in the center point method and borrowing ideas form the merits of the other First-Order Second Moment (FOSM) methods. The idea of the direct searching method is constructing a new explicit searching formula to make the new checking point being more closed to the failure surface based on the results of the center point method. The new checking point has steepest descent character because the searching path is the gradient of the approximate surface. An example shows that the method presented in this article has well precision. Although the direct searching formula may not reach the globally optimal point, the error can be controlled owing to the locally optimal plan at each searching step.

Reliability Sensitivity Analysis for Drum Brake on Modal Stress

A reliability sensitivity analysis based on modal stress is presented and applied to predict the influence factors of parameters on drum brake.Firstly,the first 10 modes of prestress of the brake drum are performed in the software ANSYS Workbench.According to the results of brake noise research,it can be detected whether the drum brake meets the results that the noise frequency range of 500-1000 Hz.The reliability sensitivity design of mechanical parts based on the normal distribution parameters for complex mechanical system is discussed.Secondly,according to the first order second moment(FOSM)theory on reliability,the reliability sensitivity of drum brake is analyzed and calculated,and compared with the Monte Carlo(MC)numerical simulation results,The variation rules of reliability sensitivity is given,which provides a theoretical basis for the design of drum brake.