[Objective] The research aimed to analyze explanation effect of the European numerical prediction on temperature. [Method] Based on CMSVM regression method, by using 850 hPa grid point data of the European numerical p...[Objective] The research aimed to analyze explanation effect of the European numerical prediction on temperature. [Method] Based on CMSVM regression method, by using 850 hPa grid point data of the European numerical prediction from 2003 to 2009 and actual data of the maximum and minimum temperatures at 8 automatic stations in Qingyang City, prediction model of the temperature was established, and running effect of the business from 2008 to 2010 was tested and evaluated. [Result] The method had very good guidance role in real-time business running of the temperature prediction. Test and evaluation found that as forecast time prolonged, prediction accuracies of the maximum and minimum temperatures declined. When temperature anomaly was higher (actual temperature was higher than historical mean), prediction accuracy increased. Influence of the European numerical prediction was bigger. [Conclusion] Compared with other methods, operation of the prediction method was convenient, modeling was automatic, running time was short, system was stable, and prediction accuracy was high. It was suitable for implementing of the explanation work for numerical prediction product at meteorological station.展开更多
The landfall process of typhoon Haitang which affected East China seriously was simulated by using the MM5 model and the track, intensity, precipitation and structure of typhoon were successfully reproduced. Then thro...The landfall process of typhoon Haitang which affected East China seriously was simulated by using the MM5 model and the track, intensity, precipitation and structure of typhoon were successfully reproduced. Then through the sensitive test, the effects of terrain were analyzed Results show that the irregular track during the period of typhoon passing through Taiwan and later landfalling at Fujian was in relation to the occurring and developing of orthographic impressed depression. The amount of rainfall was enhanced more than one time and the strength of typhoon was weakened 4 to 5 hPa. It is found that the effect of terrain on the structure of typhoon is limited at low level and is backward in space compared with the one at high level. In addition, the phenomenon that the equivalent temperature in the typhoon＇s moving direction inclines to the west on the eye of landfall may be concerned with the terrain.展开更多
文摘[Objective] The research aimed to analyze explanation effect of the European numerical prediction on temperature. [Method] Based on CMSVM regression method, by using 850 hPa grid point data of the European numerical prediction from 2003 to 2009 and actual data of the maximum and minimum temperatures at 8 automatic stations in Qingyang City, prediction model of the temperature was established, and running effect of the business from 2008 to 2010 was tested and evaluated. [Result] The method had very good guidance role in real-time business running of the temperature prediction. Test and evaluation found that as forecast time prolonged, prediction accuracies of the maximum and minimum temperatures declined. When temperature anomaly was higher (actual temperature was higher than historical mean), prediction accuracy increased. Influence of the European numerical prediction was bigger. [Conclusion] Compared with other methods, operation of the prediction method was convenient, modeling was automatic, running time was short, system was stable, and prediction accuracy was high. It was suitable for implementing of the explanation work for numerical prediction product at meteorological station.
文摘The landfall process of typhoon Haitang which affected East China seriously was simulated by using the MM5 model and the track, intensity, precipitation and structure of typhoon were successfully reproduced. Then through the sensitive test, the effects of terrain were analyzed Results show that the irregular track during the period of typhoon passing through Taiwan and later landfalling at Fujian was in relation to the occurring and developing of orthographic impressed depression. The amount of rainfall was enhanced more than one time and the strength of typhoon was weakened 4 to 5 hPa. It is found that the effect of terrain on the structure of typhoon is limited at low level and is backward in space compared with the one at high level. In addition, the phenomenon that the equivalent temperature in the typhoon＇s moving direction inclines to the west on the eye of landfall may be concerned with the terrain.
