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Overview of an early warning system for Glacial Lake outburst flood risk mitigation in Dudh-Koshi Basin, Nepal
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作者 Sanjaya Gurung Saroj Dhoj Joshi Binod Parajuli 《Research in Cold and Arid Regions》 CSCD 2021年第3期206-219,共14页
Natural disasters inflict severe damage on almost the entire spectrum of social and natural habitats. This ranges from housing and shelter, water, food, health, sanitation to information and communication networks, su... Natural disasters inflict severe damage on almost the entire spectrum of social and natural habitats. This ranges from housing and shelter, water, food, health, sanitation to information and communication networks, supply of power and energy,transportation infrastructure, and others. Nepal is a risk prone country for Glacial Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF). GLOFs exist as major challenges as they repeatedly cause a heavy toll of life and property. During such a disaster, major challenges are indeed the protection of life, property and vital life-supporting infrastructure. Any delay or laxity in disaster relief can escalate the magnitude of distress for the victims. Thus, rather than trying to take curative measures, it is better to minimize the impacts of GLOF. These measures subsequently help in reducing the magnitude of death and casualties due to a GLOF event. This reduction of impact is often achieved by optimizing preventive measures. For applying necessary deterrent measures, it is essential to disseminate information about the danger beforehand. Early Warning System(EWS) is an important step for such information dissemination for GLOF disaster management and helps to anticipate the risk of disaster and disseminate information to lives at risk. It is impossible and impractical to reduce all GLOF risks, but it is possible to reduce several impacts of a GLOF through the implementation of the EWS. This paper presents the design and implementation of an EWS for monitoring potential outbursts of a glacier lake in the Dudh-Koshi Basin, Nepal. 展开更多
关键词 GLACIER climate change early warning system glacial lake outburst flood
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A framework of numerical simulation on moraine-dammed glacial lake outburst floods
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作者 ZHANG Xiujuan LIU Shiyin 《Journal of Arid Land》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第6期728-740,共13页
Glacial outburst floods(GLOFs) in alpine regions tend to be relatively complicated, multi-stage catastrophes, capable of causing significant geomorphologic changes in channel surroundings and posing severe threats t... Glacial outburst floods(GLOFs) in alpine regions tend to be relatively complicated, multi-stage catastrophes, capable of causing significant geomorphologic changes in channel surroundings and posing severe threats to infrastructure and the safety and livelihoods of human communities. GLOF disasters have been observed and potential hazards can be foreseen due to the newly formed glacial lakes or the expansion of existing ones in the Poiqu River Basin in Tibet, China. Here we presented a synthesis of GLOF-related studies including triggering mechanism(s), dam breach modeling, and flood routing simulation that have been employed to reconstruct or forecast GLOF hydrographs. We provided a framework for probability-based GLOFs simulation and hazard mapping in the Poiqu River Basin according to available knowledge. We also discussed the uncertainties and challenges in the model chains, which may form the basis for further research. 展开更多
关键词 moraine-dammed glacial lakes glacial outburst floods dam breaching mechanisms dam-breach models flood routing models
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Influence of inflow discharge and bed erodibility on outburst flood of landslide dam 被引量:7
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作者 ZHOU Ming-jun ZHOU Gordon G.D. +2 位作者 CUI Kahlil Fredrick E. SONG Dong-ri LU Xue-qiang 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2019年第4期778-792,共15页
Accurate prediction of the hydrographs of outburst floods induced by landslide dam overtopping failure is necessary for hazard prevention and mitigation. In this study, flume model tests on the breaching of landslide ... Accurate prediction of the hydrographs of outburst floods induced by landslide dam overtopping failure is necessary for hazard prevention and mitigation. In this study, flume model tests on the breaching of landslide dams were conducted. Unconsolidated soil materials with wide grain size distributions were used to construct the dam. The effects of different upstream inflow discharges and downstream bed soil erosion on the outburst peak discharge were investigated. Experimental results reveal that the whole hydrodynamic process of landslide dam breaching can be divided into three stages as defined by clear inflection points and peak discharges. The larger the inflow discharge, the shorter the time it takes to reach the peak discharge, and the larger the outburst flood peak discharge. The scale of the outburst floods was found to be amplified by the presence of an erodible bed located downstream of the landslide dam. This amplification decreases with the increase of upstream inflow. In addition, the results show that the existence of an erodible bed increases the density of the outburst flow, increasing its probability of transforming from a sediment flow to a debris flow. 展开更多
关键词 LANDSLIDE dam INFLOW DISCHARGE Erodible BED outburst flood
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The Two Main Mechanisms of Glacier Lake Outburst Flood in Tibet,China 被引量:6
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作者 LIU Jing-jing TANG Chuan CHENG Zun-lan 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2013年第2期239-248,共10页
With the global warming,the disasters of Glacier Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF) have taken place frequently in Tibet in recent years and attracted more and more attention.A systematic survey was conducted on the 19 GLOFs i... With the global warming,the disasters of Glacier Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF) have taken place frequently in Tibet in recent years and attracted more and more attention.A systematic survey was conducted on the 19 GLOFs in Tibet to study their two main mechanisms.Investigations indicated that all the events occurred in end-moraine lakes,and the outburst occurred partially and instantly.And the breach had the shape of an arc or a trapezoid in overflow outburst and its top width was 3-5 times more than the height.The two main mechanisms of GLOFs in Tibetan end-moraine Lake were overflow and piping,and the overflow mechanism caused by iceberg collapse was dominated in most cases.A formula was proposed to calculate the critical thickness of iceberg tongue that determines the collapse.Granular analysis of the moraine materials revealed that seepage deformation is crucial in the outburst process.Finally,we conducted a case study of the Guangxiecuo Lake to show its possible process of outburst and estimated the peak discharge of the resulted flood. 展开更多
关键词 溃决洪水 冰川湖 机制 西藏 中国 全球气候变暖 爆发过程 系统调查
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Modelling Chorabari Lake outburst flood, Kedarnath, India 被引量:1
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作者 Mohammd RAFIQ Shakil Ahmad ROMSHOO +1 位作者 Anoop Kumar MISHRA Faizan JALAL 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2019年第1期64-76,共13页
In this study, the Glacier Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF) that occurred over Kedarnath in June 2013 was modeled using integrated observations from the field and Remote Sensing(RS). The lake breach parameters such as area, ... In this study, the Glacier Lake Outburst Flood(GLOF) that occurred over Kedarnath in June 2013 was modeled using integrated observations from the field and Remote Sensing(RS). The lake breach parameters such as area, depth, breach, and height have been estimated from the field observations and Remote Sensing(RS) data. A number of modelling approaches, including Snow Melt Runoff Model(SRM), Modified Single Flow model(MSF), Watershed Management System(WMS), Simplified Dam Breach Model(SMPDBK) and BREACH were used to model the GLOF. Estimations from SRM produced a runoff of about 22.7 m3 during 16–17, June 2013 over Chorabari Lake. Bathymetry data reported that the lake got filled to its maximum capacity(3822.7 m3) due to excess discharge. Hydrograph obtained from the BREACH model revealed a peak discharge of about 1699 m3/s during an intense water flow episode that lasted for 10–15 minutes on 17 th June 2013. Excess discharge from heavy rainfall and snowmelt into the lake increased its hydrostatic pressure and the lake breached cataclysmically. 展开更多
关键词 GLACIER LAKE outburst flood GIS MODELLING Snow Melt RUNOFF Kedarnath GLACIER LAKE
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Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Disasters and Integrated Risk Management in China 被引量:4
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作者 Shijin Wang Lanyue Zhou 《International Journal of Disaster Risk Science》 SCIE CSCD 2017年第4期493-497,共5页
High-risk areas for glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF) disasters in China are mainly concentrated in the middle-eastern Himalayas and Nyainqe?ntanglha(Nyenchen Tanglha Mountains), Tibetan Plateau. In the past 20 years,... High-risk areas for glacial lake outburst flood(GLOF) disasters in China are mainly concentrated in the middle-eastern Himalayas and Nyainqe?ntanglha(Nyenchen Tanglha Mountains), Tibetan Plateau. In the past 20 years, glaciers in these regions have retreated and thinned rapidly as a response to regional climate warming,leading to the formation of new glacial lakes and the expansion of existing glacial lakes. These areas are located in the border belt between the Indian and the Eurasian plates, where tectonic seismic activity is also frequent and intense. Earthquakes have often compromised the stability of mountain slopes, glaciers, and moraine dams, resulting in an imbalance in the state of glacial lakes and an increase of loose materials in valleys. It is foreseeable that the possibility of GLOFs and disaster occurrence will be great in the context of frequent earthquakes and continued climate warming. This article presents the temporal and spatial characteristics of GLOF disasters, as well as the conditions and mechanisms of GLOF disaster formation,and proposes an integrated risk management strategy to cope with GLOF disasters. It aims to facilitate the mitigation of the impacts of GLOF disasters on mountain economic and social systems, and improve disaster risk analysis, as well as the capability of risk management and disaster prevention and reduction. 展开更多
关键词 China Glacial lake outburst flood disasters Risk management Tibetan Plateau
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Multiple evidences indicate no relationship between prehistoric disasters in Lajia site and outburst flood in upper Yellow River valley, China 被引量:7
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作者 DONG GuangHui ZHANG FanYu +4 位作者 LIU FengWen ZHANG DongJu ZHOU AiFeng YANG YiShi WANG GongHui 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2018年第4期441-449,共9页
All around the world, ancient legends exist about the Great Flood, and the influence of the Great Flood in human evolutionary history is a hotly debated topic. In China, the legend of the prehistoric Great Flood and Y... All around the world, ancient legends exist about the Great Flood, and the influence of the Great Flood in human evolutionary history is a hotly debated topic. In China, the legend of the prehistoric Great Flood and Yu the Great's flood control has a long history and is considered to be closely linked to the establishment of the Xia Dynasty. However, there is a lack of solid scientific evidence. Against this issue, some scholars have proposed that an earthquake around 1920 BCE in the Guanting Basin along the upper reaches of the Yellow River led to the creation of a lake by damming in the Jishi Gorge and that the outburst of water from that lake led to the massive flood in the Yellow River region. These studies provided new scientific evidence for the Chinese legend. In this paper, we date skeletal samples embedded in earthquake sand blasting from the Lajia site, analyze remains from natural disasters(such as earthquakes and floods) and also archaeological remains. In addition, we compared the skeletal samples dating with that of sediments from the dammed-up lake. Our results are inconsistent with those of previous scholars. The earthquake at the Lajia site occurred no earlier than 1800 BCE, and the dammed-up lake in Jishi Gorge had disappeared by 3600 BCE. Thus, the formation and outburst of the dammed lake, the sudden death of ancient humans at the Lajia site and the ancient earthquake were independent events occurring at different times. In addition, the massive flood in the upper reaches of the Yellow River did not actually happen. Thus, we argue against and invalidate the hypothesis that the massive flood was related to Yu the Great's flood control and the establishment of the Xia Dynasty. 展开更多
关键词 科学证据 大洪水 自然灾难 黄河 爆发 地点 中国 山谷
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THE RESEARCHES OF GLACIER LAKE OUTBURST FLOODS OF THE YARKANT RIVER IN XINJIANG
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作者 张祥松 李念杰 +1 位作者 由希尧 王万祥 《Science China Chemistry》 SCIE EI CAS 1990年第8期1014-1024,1026,共12页
The Jokulhlaup of the Yarkant River (Yarkant He) is usually csused by the sudden discharge of the glacier-dammed lake and the mode of the discharge is the rapid expansion of the subglacial channel. Keyajir (Kyagar) Gl... The Jokulhlaup of the Yarkant River (Yarkant He) is usually csused by the sudden discharge of the glacier-dammed lake and the mode of the discharge is the rapid expansion of the subglacial channel. Keyajir (Kyagar) Glacier and Telamukanli Glacier are on the upper reaches of the Keleqin (Shaksgam) River, the chief birthplaces of this kind of flood. Up to the end of this century, since the global climate has become warmer, the glaciers have accordingly shrunk and become thinner, with the result that the size and dimensions of the glacier-dammed lakes and their outburst floods have diminished. All these simply reveal the mystery of the Jokulhlaups of the Yarkant River in Xinjiang. 展开更多
关键词 Yarkant RIVER GLACIER LAKE outburst flood variation of GLACIER advance and RETREAT DEWATERING way of GLACIER LAKE
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Debris Fan Produced by Failure of Canyon-Blocking Pyroclastic Flows
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作者 Michael L. Cummings 《Journal of Water Resource and Protection》 CAS 2024年第5期328-360,共33页
Ash-rich pyroclastic flows from the cataclysmic eruption of Mount Mazama (~7700 yr. B. P.), Cascade volcanic arc, Oregon, entered and blocked the narrow, bedrock-lined canyon of the Williamson River approximately 35 t... Ash-rich pyroclastic flows from the cataclysmic eruption of Mount Mazama (~7700 yr. B. P.), Cascade volcanic arc, Oregon, entered and blocked the narrow, bedrock-lined canyon of the Williamson River approximately 35 to 44 km from the source volcano. The blockage impounded a body of water which then released producing four stratigraphic units in the downstream debris fan. The four stratigraphic units are a boulder core comprised of locally sourced bedrock boulders and three sand-rich units including a fine-grained sand unit, a sandy pumice gravel (±basalt/hydrovolcanic tuff) unit, and a pumice pebble-bearing, crystal-rich sand unit. Hand-drilled auger holes up to ~1.6 m deep were used to obtain samples of the sand-rich units. Units were delimited using surface and down-hole observations, composition and texture, estimated density, statistical parameters of grain size, and vertical and lateral distribution of properties. Overtopping followed by rapid incision into the ash-rich pyroclastic flows progressively cleared the canyon, but a bedrock knickpoint near the head of the canyon limited the volume of debris available for transport to about 0.04 km<sup>3</sup> to 0.08 km<sup>3</sup>. Co-deposition of bedrock boulders and lithic-rich sand was followed by rapid deposition with minimal reworking of remobilized pyroclastics. Continued draining of the impounded lake sent hyperconcentrated flows onto the debris fan depositing pumice-rich gravels that graded upward to crystal-rich sands. 展开更多
关键词 outburst flood Mount Mazama Debris Fan Canyon Blockage Pyroclastic Flows
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基于数值模拟的大岩山崩塌-堰塞坝-溃决洪水灾害链演化过程分析
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作者 刘潇 吴彩燕 +1 位作者 魏琪豪 王苗 《西南科技大学学报》 CAS 2024年第2期54-61,共8页
河道岸坡在地震和降雨作用下易发生崩滑,从而堵塞河道形成堰塞坝进而引发溃决洪水形成灾害链。为了清晰认识灾害链的演化过程及运动特征,以大岩山崩塌-堰塞坝-溃决洪水灾害链为研究对象,对其进行了全过程数值模拟。通过无人机航测获取... 河道岸坡在地震和降雨作用下易发生崩滑,从而堵塞河道形成堰塞坝进而引发溃决洪水形成灾害链。为了清晰认识灾害链的演化过程及运动特征,以大岩山崩塌-堰塞坝-溃决洪水灾害链为研究对象,对其进行了全过程数值模拟。通过无人机航测获取了大岩山崩塌周围至下游10 km^(2)的地形数据,利用EDEM离散元数值模拟软件建立大岩山崩塌模型,反演崩塌堆积形成堰塞坝的过程;采用DB-IWHR模拟计算堰塞坝溃坝过程的流量过程线;以流量过程线作为洪水演进的上游边界条件,结合Flo-2D模拟溃决洪水的演进过程。模拟结果表明:大岩山崩塌堆积过程持续33 s,颗粒的最大崩落速度达到46.5 m/s,模拟结果的堆积范围与实际堆积范围吻合度较高;堰塞坝溃坝约1 h后流量达到最大值725 m^(3)/s;溃坝后洪水最大淹没深度为14.37 m,在溃口至下游1.5 km处的淹没深度几乎都在3 m以上,其下游淹没深度逐渐降低。河道岸坡崩滑形成灾害链的演化分析可为防灾减灾和应急救险提供理论依据。 展开更多
关键词 崩塌 堰塞坝 洪灾 灾害链 数值模拟
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堰塞湖风险处置研究现状与展望
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作者 周招 杨启贵 +3 位作者 蔡耀军 卢建华 陈朝旭 张文传 《人民长江》 北大核心 2024年第4期9-18,共10页
科学认知堰塞湖基本特征、高效评估堰塞湖风险以及提升堰塞湖应急处置技术是缓和堰塞湖威胁和降低堰塞湖灾损的关键。从堰塞湖分布、成因、蓄水库容、生命周期以及堰塞湖灾害特点等方面系统分析了堰塞湖基本特征,从定性、定量以及灾害... 科学认知堰塞湖基本特征、高效评估堰塞湖风险以及提升堰塞湖应急处置技术是缓和堰塞湖威胁和降低堰塞湖灾损的关键。从堰塞湖分布、成因、蓄水库容、生命周期以及堰塞湖灾害特点等方面系统分析了堰塞湖基本特征,从定性、定量以及灾害链角度系统总结了堰塞湖危险性评估方法,并结合堰塞湖溃决机理系统分析当前堰塞湖溃决应急监测困境、引流槽除险技术水平和疏通开挖机械设备现状。基于当前研究的局限性,凝炼堰塞湖应急处置研究未来应重点关注的5个问题:①堰塞体堆积形态分区机制;②强非恒定流输沙理论;③大尺度堰塞湖溃决模型试验;④堰塞湖应急处置专用机械设备研制;⑤堰塞湖溃决洪峰动态追踪。研究成果可为高风险堰塞湖风险评估、应急处置及区域防灾减灾规划提供有益参考。 展开更多
关键词 堰塞湖 溃决洪峰 风险评估 应急处置 实时监测
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贵平煤矿地质灾害研究及防治
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作者 赵永忠 《能源与节能》 2024年第5期74-76,共3页
随着煤矿开采的不断深入,所引起的地质灾害越发严重,特别是在开采多煤层时,地质灾害影响更为严重。为加强对山体滑坡、陡岩崩塌、泥石流、地面塌陷、地裂缝等地质灾害的防治,改善煤矿地质环境,根据矿井实际情况,结合各类地质灾害发生的... 随着煤矿开采的不断深入,所引起的地质灾害越发严重,特别是在开采多煤层时,地质灾害影响更为严重。为加强对山体滑坡、陡岩崩塌、泥石流、地面塌陷、地裂缝等地质灾害的防治,改善煤矿地质环境,根据矿井实际情况,结合各类地质灾害发生的特点,采取对采空区进行地表下沉量预测、无人机遥感监测等有效的防治措施,实现对风险的有效预防与控制,并加强地质灾害治理,保护煤矿地质生态环境,实现矿井长期安全稳定发展。 展开更多
关键词 煤矿 地质灾害 山体滑坡 瓦斯突出 水害 防治措施
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Sequential Damming Induced Winter Season Flash Flood in Uttarakhand Province of India
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作者 Piyoosh Rautela Sushil Khanduri +1 位作者 Surabhi Kundalia Girish Chandra Joshi 《Journal of Environmental & Earth Sciences》 2021年第2期61-71,共11页
204 persons were killed while two hydropower projects located in close proximity at Rishiganga(13.2 MW),and Tapoban(520 MW)were damaged in Dhauliganga flood of February 7,2021 in the Indian Himalaya.This incidence occ... 204 persons were killed while two hydropower projects located in close proximity at Rishiganga(13.2 MW),and Tapoban(520 MW)were damaged in Dhauliganga flood of February 7,2021 in the Indian Himalaya.This incidence occurred during the winter season when the discharge of the glacier fed rivers is minimal,and no rain was experienced in the region around the time of the flood.Despite discharge of the main river,Rishiganga,not involved in the flood due to damming upstream of its confluence with Raunthi Gadhera,based on field evidences massive volume of around 6 million cu m water involved in this flood is attributed to sequential intermittent damming at three different places;(i)Raunthi Gadhera was dammed first in its upper reaches,(ii)Rishiganga river was then dammed to the north of Murunna,and(iii)finally Dhauliganga river was dammed around Rini village to the upstream of its confluence with Rishiganga river.Lacking warning system only enhanced the flood-induced devastation.Legally binding disaster risk assessment regime,together with robust warning generation,and dissemination infrastructure are therefore recommended for all major infrastructure projects. 展开更多
关键词 HIMALAYA Uttarakhand Flash flood Landslide dam Landslide lake outburst flood(LLOF) Dam breach
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PRELIMINARY STUDY ON FLASH FLOODS IN TARIM RIVER BASIN
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作者 王润 高前兆 《Chinese Geographical Science》 SCIE CSCD 1997年第1期53-58,共6页
Flash floods are the important events of the hydrological regime of rivers in arid areas. In the Tarim River, northwestern china, flash flood are being monitored. The observed data and investigation demonstrate the di... Flash floods are the important events of the hydrological regime of rivers in arid areas. In the Tarim River, northwestern china, flash flood are being monitored. The observed data and investigation demonstrate the difference in time, place, fraquency and intensity of their occurrences. In this paper two main flash fled are put forward, they are rainstorm flash flood (RFF) and glacier lake outburst flood(GLOF). Two cases of flash flood in the two tributaries of the Tarim River presented in this paper. It analyses and compares the causes and the development of the two kinds of flash floods.Through further discussion about influence of flash floods on the main channel of the Tarirn River, conclusion can be drawn that the greatest flood in record of the main channel come from the GLOF of the upper reaches of the Kunmalik River, especially augmented by great ablation flood. Finally the advantages and disadvantages from flash floods to the environment of the catchment are demonstrated in the paper. 展开更多
关键词 FLASH floods RAINSTORM FLASH flood GLACIER lake outburst flood TARIM River basin
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青藏高原冰湖溃决灾害隐患识别、发育规律及危险性评价 被引量:1
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作者 汤明高 陈浩文 +2 位作者 赵欢乐 杨威 邓文锋 《地质通报》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2023年第5期730-742,共13页
青藏高原是全球冰湖溃决灾害发生最频繁的区域之一,冰湖溃决对人类及工程建设安全造成严重威胁。以2015-2018年Landsat 8 OLI_TIRS等遥感影像及数据为基础,对青藏高原40000余条冰川10 km范围内且面积大于900 m^(2)的冰湖进行了遥感解译... 青藏高原是全球冰湖溃决灾害发生最频繁的区域之一,冰湖溃决对人类及工程建设安全造成严重威胁。以2015-2018年Landsat 8 OLI_TIRS等遥感影像及数据为基础,对青藏高原40000余条冰川10 km范围内且面积大于900 m^(2)的冰湖进行了遥感解译,分析了冰湖分布与发育特征,建立了冰湖溃决隐患的识别指标体系,利用突变级数法(CPM)对隐患点进行了危险性分级评价。结果表明:①青藏高原发育冰湖16481处,海拔分布在5000~5500 m之间的冰湖占总量的43.69%;面积集中在100~500 km^(2)之间的占总量的47.40%;行政分布上主要分布在西藏自治区,有12664个,占总量的76.84%;流域上主要分布在雅鲁藏布江流域,有8321个,占总量的50.49%。②识别出冰湖灾害隐患点369个,其中低危险点126个,中危险点177个,高危险点66个。③冰湖溃决隐患点面积多为0.1~0.2 km^(2);海拔主要分布在5000~5500 m之间;与母冰川距离大多小于100 m;冰碛坝宽度一般小于300 m,背水坡坡度大多小于50°;冰湖溃决隐患点的母冰川冰舌端坡度分布在10°~20°之间;绝大多数冰湖溃决的方向朝向北方。 展开更多
关键词 青藏高原 冰湖溃决洪水 遥感解译 发育规律 危险性评价
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冰川崩塌冰湖溃决引发的洪涝灾害调查及应对策略
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作者 曲伟 刘昌军 +3 位作者 吕娟 宋文龙 刘业森 李帅 《中国防汛抗旱》 2023年第1期27-30,共4页
我国冰川资源主要分布在青藏高原及周边地区,在全球变暖背景下,青藏高原及周边地区冰川整体上处于快速消融状态。冰川的快速变化降低冰川自身的稳定性,进而导致冰川灾害的发生风险增加,冰湖溃决洪水是冰川灾害中影响最大的自然灾害,21... 我国冰川资源主要分布在青藏高原及周边地区,在全球变暖背景下,青藏高原及周边地区冰川整体上处于快速消融状态。冰川的快速变化降低冰川自身的稳定性,进而导致冰川灾害的发生风险增加,冰湖溃决洪水是冰川灾害中影响最大的自然灾害,21世纪以来冰湖溃决灾害发生频率明显上升。未来气温升高和降水的增加将加速冰川的退化,气温升高、冰川融水增加、降水量增加、极端天气条件增多,必将造成冰湖溃决风险增大。通过梳理典型历史灾害事件和气候变化下冰湖溃决洪水风险发展趋势,提出了冰川冰湖灾害应对建议,即部署排查普查,建立重点区域清单;建立多部门长效合作机制,做好协同协作;加强重点区域风险预警;研究冰湖溃决和漫溢溃坝洪水机理和风险;做好应急处置,指导地方编制预案。 展开更多
关键词 冰川冰湖 冰湖溃决洪水 洪涝灾害
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沟道松散堆积体冲刷启动机理与泥石流-拦挡坝相互作用研究 被引量:1
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作者 张座雄 刘兴荣 +2 位作者 王喜红 王磊 时岩 《地震工程学报》 CSCD 北大核心 2023年第5期1106-1115,1155,共11页
汶川地震后我国西部山区大量崩滑体堵塞泥石流沟道,形成堰塞坝,暴雨条件下极易溃决形成溃决洪水,剧烈冲刷侵蚀下游松散堆积体,形成或加剧泥石流灾害规模,对下游拦挡工程的破坏性极强。通过室内水槽试验,监测堆积体内和拦挡坝后相关土水... 汶川地震后我国西部山区大量崩滑体堵塞泥石流沟道,形成堰塞坝,暴雨条件下极易溃决形成溃决洪水,剧烈冲刷侵蚀下游松散堆积体,形成或加剧泥石流灾害规模,对下游拦挡工程的破坏性极强。通过室内水槽试验,监测堆积体内和拦挡坝后相关土水、动力参数响应规律,分析松散堆积体冲刷侵蚀启动力学机制及其与拦挡坝相互作用机理,并推导出考虑孔隙水压力的泥石流冲击力计算公式。结果表明:(1)冲刷启动过程中堆积体以溯源侵蚀、侧蚀为主,体积含水率和孔隙水压力先增后减,基质吸力呈波动减小。(2)在泥石流冲击拦挡坝过程中,坝后出现两次冲击峰值,第一次拦挡坝泄水通畅,振动加速度为1.29 m/s^(2);第二次排水受阻,振动加速度为1.22 m/s^(2),同时泥位达到峰值95 mm。(3)泥石流对拦挡坝的整体冲击力由动、静两部分组成,静冲击力与坝后孔隙水压力呈正比,而动冲击力与流速的平方呈正比。研究成果可为震后泥石流沟道松散堆积体冲刷启动机理研究与防治工程优化提供理论与技术支持。 展开更多
关键词 溃决洪水 松散堆积体 启动机理 泥石流拦挡坝 冲击力
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西藏冰湖溃决频次与径流峰值流量相关性分析 被引量:1
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作者 徐航 陈宁生 杨志全 《科学技术与工程》 北大核心 2023年第9期3641-3647,共7页
冰湖溃决事件频繁发生,严重阻碍西藏自治区区域社会经济发展,影响社会稳定。随着气候变暖,冰川减薄后退,冰川径流量增大,冰湖溃决风险上升。基于西藏自治区东南地区的嘎隆拉冰川径流观测资料,分析了2017—2019年消融期间5—9月冰川径流... 冰湖溃决事件频繁发生,严重阻碍西藏自治区区域社会经济发展,影响社会稳定。随着气候变暖,冰川减薄后退,冰川径流量增大,冰湖溃决风险上升。基于西藏自治区东南地区的嘎隆拉冰川径流观测资料,分析了2017—2019年消融期间5—9月冰川径流变化特征,探讨了西藏1931—2020年冰湖溃决事件发生的频次与径流峰值流量的关系。结果表明:在1931—2020年,西藏地区共发生冰湖溃决事件32次,集中在5—9月发生;在旬变化上,极大值频次呈单峰结构,在7月上旬频次最高;冰湖溃决频次与径流峰值流量显著相关,相关系数为0.673,随着径流增大,冰湖溃决发生的频次逐渐增大。在气候变暖的背景下,冰川融化引发的冰湖溃决灾害应引起重视,要加强冰川消融径流观测及冰湖水位的监测,进行冰湖溃决洪水预报。 展开更多
关键词 西藏 冰湖溃决 冰川径流 峰值流量 径流观测
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高危堰塞湖引流槽结构形式优化试验研究 被引量:2
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作者 周招 蔡耀军 +1 位作者 彭文祥 李建清 《人民长江》 北大核心 2023年第2期200-205,219,共7页
针对高危堰塞湖溃决早期泄洪效率低下以及溃决洪峰难以控制等工程难题,通过室内物理模型试验优化调整引流槽横、纵断面结构形式,对比研究了常规梯形断面、复式断面以及垂直陡坎式引流槽条件下堰塞湖溃决洪水的特点。研究结果表明:不同... 针对高危堰塞湖溃决早期泄洪效率低下以及溃决洪峰难以控制等工程难题,通过室内物理模型试验优化调整引流槽横、纵断面结构形式,对比研究了常规梯形断面、复式断面以及垂直陡坎式引流槽条件下堰塞湖溃决洪水的特点。研究结果表明:不同结构形式引流槽堰塞湖溃决洪水过程普遍可划分为溃决初始阶段、溯源冲刷阶段、快速发展阶段以及恢复稳定阶段。相比于常规梯形断面引流槽,复式断面引流槽可明显降低堰塞体过水高程,加速溃决初始阶段发展,缩短堰塞湖蓄水时间,降低最大壅高水位,可减小最大溃决洪峰约17%。垂直陡坎可增大溃决水流局部流速,加速溯源陡坎回溯冲刷,明显加速堰塞湖溃决发展,缩短堰塞湖蓄水时间,降低堰塞湖最大壅高水位,且削减溃决洪峰最低仍能达到11.4%。 展开更多
关键词 堰塞湖 引流槽 复式断面 溃决洪峰
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1961—2021年叶尔羌河流域克亚吉尔冰湖溃决洪水变化特征
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作者 努尔比亚·吐尼牙孜 米日古丽·米吉提 +3 位作者 毛炜峄 迈尔丹江·米吉提 张阿慧 刘艳 《冰川冻土》 CSCD 北大核心 2023年第4期1288-1299,共12页
叶尔羌河流域冰湖溃决洪水致灾严重,在全球变暖背景下建立完善冰湖溃决洪水数据库,掌握其变化规律是开展冰湖研究和洪水危险性评估、风险管理的基础。基于水文径流数据、科考资料及洪水灾情资料,建立了1961—2021年叶尔羌河流域克亚吉... 叶尔羌河流域冰湖溃决洪水致灾严重,在全球变暖背景下建立完善冰湖溃决洪水数据库,掌握其变化规律是开展冰湖研究和洪水危险性评估、风险管理的基础。基于水文径流数据、科考资料及洪水灾情资料,建立了1961—2021年叶尔羌河流域克亚吉尔冰湖溃决洪水数据库,利用线性趋势、R/S分析、累积距平、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法分析了冰湖溃决洪水的频次、洪峰流量变化特征,基于多概率分布函数估算了不同重现期情景下的洪峰流量并对其进行了危险性评估。结果表明:叶河流域克亚吉尔冰湖溃决洪水出现频次和洪峰流量在月分布上均呈单峰型,8—9月溃决洪水风险全年最高。1961—2021年克亚吉尔冰湖溃决洪水频次线性变化趋势不明显,呈现高、低交替变化的年代振荡特征,洪峰流量则呈现显著线性减少趋势,其减少速率为15.5 m^(3)·s^(-1)·a^(-1),对于洪水资源化利用而言利大于弊。对于19 a准周期,短期内克亚吉尔冰湖溃决洪水发生频次处于低位,风险较低,并将持续下降到2027年左右,此后进入下一个上升阶段。虽然21世纪初受全球气候变化影响,克亚吉尔冰湖溃决洪水出现短暂的高频期,但这仍不能改变其振荡减少为主的长期变化特征。克亚吉尔冰湖溃决洪水在5 a一遇重现期情景下有一定的致灾风险,10 a及以上不同重现期情景下致灾风险极高。建议后期加强对叶尔羌河克亚吉尔冰湖的动态监测、风险评估以及冰湖溃决突发洪水机理研究,加快水利工程建设力度,趋利避害、提高流域防洪减灾能力。 展开更多
关键词 叶尔羌河 克亚吉尔冰湖 冰湖溃决 突发洪水 洪水危险性评估和管理
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