Interval Sampling Method for Steady-State Simulation Output Analysis

A new algorithm namely the interval sampling method, applicable to the analysisof steady-state simulation output is proposed. This algorithm uses the time series analysisto carry out conrrelation analysis of the steady-state simulation output so as to obtain theobservation data which are actually uncorrelated in nature. On the basis of theseuncorrelated data gathered, some satisfactory deductions cam be made on the data under re search. A comparison between batch means method and the interval sampling method hasbeen performed by taking the M/M/l queuing system as an example. The results attestedthat the interval sampling method is mere accurate than the batch means method.

Agricultural Input and Output in Jiangsu Province with Case Analysis

[Objective] The aim was to explore interrelationship between agricultural input and output in Jiangsu and the influence degrees of input factors on agricultur-al output. [Method] Quantitative analysis and evaluation were made on agricultural input and output in Jiangsu during 1990-2012 as per factor analysis and regression analysis. [Result] The result of factor analysis showed that since the 1990s, the comprehensive efficiency of agricultural input/output in Jiangsu was growing and in-put/output of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, crop farming, and of food production were extracted, whose scores reflect the changes of input/output ef-ficiencies in terms of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, crop farming and food production in the two decades. The results of regression analysis indicated that the effects of the three indices on agricultural output tended to be volatile and the influence degrees were concluded also by regression parameters. [Conclusion] The research provides theoretical references for agricultural input/output structure in Jiangsu Province.

STABILITY ANAL YSISOF THE DYNAMIC INPUT-OUTPUT SYSTEM

The dynamic input output model is well known in economic theory and practice.In this paper,the asymptotic stability and balanced growth solutions of the dynamic input output system are considered.Under some natural assumptions which do not require the technical coefficient matrix to be indecomposable,it has been proved that the dynamic input output system is not asymptotically stable and the closed dynamic input output model has a balanced growth solution.

Development of Simulation Tool Orienting Production Engineering

A simulation tool named BITSIM orienting production engineering is developed in order to improve enterprise＇s productivity and making up the scarcity of computer application. The architecture of BITSIM is presented first. Hierarchical technique, control strategy based on multi-agent and simulation output analysis are depicted in detail then. In the end, an application example is taken out to prove that this system could be used to analyzing different hypothetical situation and configuring the auxiliary manufacturing system before production.

Allocation of Inter-Industry Environmental Responsibilities Based on Economic Benefits： Principles and Indicators

Rational inter-industry allocation of environmental responsibilities has great significance to instituting effective policies on industrial environment and transforming the pattern of economic development. From the perspective of economic benefit and industrial linkage, this paper discusses the issue of inter-industry allocation of environmental responsibilities. Based on input-output model and three responsibility principles （producer responsibility, consumer responsibility and shared responsibility）, this paper develops seven industrial environmental responsibility indicators and conducts an empirical analysis on the S02 emission responsibilities at China＇s industry level. Results indicate that all these indicators can avoid the double calculation of environmental responsibilities and results using different indicators have significant differences. Some industries such as power, heat production and supply may have little difference of the relative ranking of environmental responsibility under different indicators, but the magnitude of specific assumed responsibilities may have significant changes. Environmental responsibilities of some other industries （such as construction） may seem not important under certain indicators but can be among the most significant under some other indicators. More importantly, despite close connections between these indicators, they reflect different mechanisms of environmental responsibility allocation and have totally different policy significance.

Theoretical analysis of polarization control for the stable output of multi-carrier source based on a re-circulating frequency shifter

Fluctuating polarization state-of-light in the optical loop is an important factor that seriously influences the output performance of a multi-carrier source based on re-circulating frequency shifter （RFS）. The reason for output spectrum instability when no polarization controller （PC） is present in the loop is analyzed theoretically. Numerical simulations for the output spectra of the multi-carrier source with and without PC are conducted, and the trajectories of the several frequency components polarization states on the Poincare sphere with and without PC are compared. The results show that the performance of multi-carrier source based on a RFS can be improved effectively by adjusting the PC in the configuration properly.

Input-Output Production Structure and Non-Linear Production Possibility Frontier

Input-output(Leontief)production function is widely used in economic analysis.And diminishing marginal rate of return is a very well accepted economic fact.Leontief production function normally results in a linear production possibility frontier(PPF)due to its linear feature,whereas diminishing marginal rate of return implies a non-linear PPF.In this paper,the authors aim to fix this problem by considering multiple primary inputs in a simplified two-sector economy.The authors find that it is possible to curve a non-linear PPF by using Leontief production function when the authors add heterogeneous primary inputs.The authors also discuss the PPF using non-linear production function.Furthermore,the authors propose that three commonly used economic presumptions cannot hold in the same framework.These presumptions are"single primary input","fixed-proportion inputs"and"law of diminishing marginal returns".

Bootstrap Estimation from Simulation Outputs

This paper discusses a new nonparametric statistical method and applies it to simulation output analysis. This can be used to overcome the limitations of the traditional methods. The steps of making bootstrap interval estimation are given. The simulation results for the examples show that the bootstrap method can produce the valid confidence intervals and improve the simulation precision.

Bootstrap generated confidence interval for time averaged measure

In the simulation output analysis,there are some measures that should be calculated by time average concept such as the mean queue length.Especially,the confidence interval of those measures might be required for statistical analysis.In this situation,the traditional method that utilizes the central limit theorem(CLT)is inapplicable if the output data set has autocorrelation structure.The bootstrap is one of the most suitable methods which can reflect the autocorrelated phenomena in statistical analysis.Therefore,the confidence interval for a time averaged measure having autocorrelation structure can also be calculated by the bootstrap methods.This study introduces the method that constructs these confidence intervals applying the bootstraps.The bootstraps proposed are the threshold bootstrap(TB),the moving block bootstrap(MBB)and stationary bootstrap(SB).Finally,some numerical examples will be provided for verification.