How China Can Avoid the ＂MiddleIncome Trap＂

In 2010, China entered what the World Development Bank Report of 2010 labeled as the upper-middle-income threshold with a GDP per capita of $4,396. China s current momentum will likely carry it through sustained growth in the foreseeable future, but it remains unsure whether China will escape the middle-income trap and grow into a high-income country. The answer lies in China＇s ability to restructure its industrial and social structure.

The ＂Middle Income Trap＂ and China＇s Path to Development： International Experiences and Lessons

China＇s per capita GDP surpassed US$4,000 in 2010, the threshold for an upper middle income countries. By drawing on examples of both Latin American countries that fell into the middle income trap and ＂Asian Tigers＂ （Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan and Hong Kong） that avoided this trap and became high income countries, this paper identifies two transformations in China＇s economic development： market-driven and factor- driven stages. China＇s growth is currently driven by efficiency, i.e. the upper middle income stage, and is set to reach the high income stage driven by innovation. This paper analyzes various factors that may drag China into the middle income trap during its upper middle income stage, warns of the urgency to avoid traps and transform its development model and identifies seven traps that must be guarded against.

The ＂Middle Income Trap＂ in Economic Growth in Different Economies

Nowadays, more than 50% of the world population live in middle-income economies. Economies in the middle-income development stage are confronted with a number of challenges, such as economic restructuring, industrial upgrade and income growth. Therefore, academia around the worm have paid much attention to theoretical and empirical researches of the ＂middle income trap＂ and long-term trends of global economic growth. Based on analyses about the long-term growth path of the world economy and the characteristics of different stages of economic development, this paper defines the＂middle income trap＂ and its characteristics and examines, through a large number of cases from different economies, the reasons why ＂growth slowdown＂ arises during the middle-income development stage. These theoretic and empirical researches have reference value and heuristic meaning for China to actively respond to the challenges of the ＂middle income trap＂.

China’s Industrial Modernization:Development Rationale,Current Status,and Policy Directions

Economies that have effectively escaped the“middle-income trap”demonstrate common traits in their industrial restructuring as they progressed to high-income status.These include a relatively stable share of an economy’s manufacturing sector,a reasonable economic structure,enhanced industrial capabilities,and growth driven by innovation.However,late-moving countries face a number of hurdles as they strive to cross this threshold.China’s development advantages include,among other things,a complete industrial system,a more balanced industrial structure,growing indigenous innovation capabilities,continual expansion and upgrading of domestic demand,and a greater degree of openness.These capabilities have provided continuous momentum for industrial growth,allowing China to capitalize on the next wave of technological and industrial revolutions while also promoting long-term,steady industrial development.During its modernization efforts,China has seen substantial changes in the external environment surrounding its industrial development.We must not only recognize the increasing complexity,intensity,and uncertainty of these changes,but also take proactive steps to solve diverse issues and capitalize on opportunities arising from global digital and green transitions.Equal focus should be placed on strengthening reforms and promoting high-level openness,improving policy coordination and consistency,and pursuing an innovation-driven strategy.This will speed the development of a modern industrial system and encourage the formation of new,high-quality productive forces.

总结克服“贫困陷阱”经验开启新时代现代化新征程--学习党的十九大报告关于新发展理念重要方略的体会

中国特色社会主义的伟大实践使我国告别了贫困,实现了从站起来到富起来的飞跃,坚持走中国特色社会主义道路,坚持贯彻党的基本理论、基本路线、基本方略,坚持"五位一体"总体布局,坚持"四个全面"战略布局,贯彻新发展理念,建设现代化经济体系,一定能够使我们迈过"中等收入陷阱",实现两个百年的发展目标,进一步提升"四个自信",为解决人类问题进一步贡献中国智慧和中国方案。

2015后发展议程框架下中国经济发展战略——论决战极端贫困和跨越中等收入陷阱

在经历了30多年改革开放与高速增长艰难而辉煌的发展历程后,当代中国经济正处于关键的历史转折点,面临着更为严峻的挑战:一方面,要在2020年实现党的十八大提出的宏伟战略目标——彻底根除极端贫困,全面建成小康社会;另一方面,要坚持可持续发展,成功跨越中等收入陷阱,顺利实现建设社会主义现代化强国的第三步发展目标。决战极端贫困,必须增强责任感、使命感、紧迫感,坚持创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享五大发展理念,使之完整地贯彻落实到脱贫的具体实践中,思路清晰,政策适宜,措施得当,万众一心攻坚克难。跨越中等收入陷阱,必须解决好两方面问题:一是转变增长方式,依靠科技创新、制度创新和文化创新,通过创新驱动发展,保持经济的可持续增长;二是实现收入公平分配,使经济增长获得可持续的动力。

Understanding the Past,Present,and Future of China's Economic Development——Based on A Unified Framework of Growth Theories

Through exploring the limitation of the neoclassical theory of economic growth,which classifies growth as a homogenous process,this paper reconciles various theories of economic development and explains the rises and falls of economic growth under a unified framework,focusing on incentives of the accumulation of physical and human capital.This paper classifies instances of economic growth into four categories—the Malthusian poverty trap,the Lewis dual model of economic development,the Lewis turning point,and Solow neoclassical growth model.This paper conducts empirical analysis of these categories of economic development as they are relevant to Chinese economic growth and discusses policy implications therein.

Research on the Necessity of Building National-level Grape and Cherry Germplasm Resources Bank in Shandong Province

At present,the grape and cherry industries in Shandong are in the leading position in China and have driven the development of related high-end manufacturing industries such as wine,brandy,preserved fruit processing,fruit juice processing and health products. Therefore,vigorously developing the grape and cherry industries in Shandong Province and carrying out development and innovation are important parts of Shandong Province in responding to the strategy of national new and old kinetic energy conversion. However,currently the germplasm resources preserved in the fruit tree resources banks in China are only 45% of those in the US and 27. 2% of those in the EU. Moreover,the development of fruit trees resources banks in Shandong is relatively backward in China,and there is still no banks related with grape and cherry germplasm resources in Shandong. Therefore,importance can be attached to the agriculture,forestry,and animal husbandry to build germplasm resources banks for grape and cherry industries in Shandong Province. Building the national-level grape and cherry germplasm resources bank in Shandong Province can also promote the utilization of wild and farm germplasm resources in the future; advance the research on the genes related to disease resistance,stress resistance and quality of grapes and cherries; push forward the construction and development of cherry and grape mutants banks. It is conducive to the research on the agronomic traits of grapes and cherries,and can provide the parents resources for planting innovation and improving the quality of grapes and cherries,as well as promote the development and application of molecular markers of grapes and cherries,including the identification of lines and crossbreeding. Thereby,it cannot only promote the industry development,but also achieve the development of cultivation,breeding and basic research in an all-round way and the development of ＂ production,study and research＂ going side by side.

Population Quality-based Demographic Dividend,Industrial Transformation and Sustainable Development of the Chinese Economy and Society

China is faced with a decreasing labor supply and therefore is losing its cost advantage.However,benefiting from continuous improvement of population quality,China's population quality-based demographic dividend begins to replace the quantity-based dividend to play a dominant role in economic development.Thus,in supply-side structure,rather than essential factors,it paves the way for the sustainable development of the Chinese economy.With the addition of the successful industrial transformation and upgrading,China still has the advantage to overcome the middle income trap and maintain the momentum of economic growth.

Human Rights Protection under the New Normal State of Economy

The new normal state of economy is not only the overall trend of China's current economic development stage, but also the strategic choice of China for the future economic development, the anticipation for the economic development and its outcome under the new strategy. It is of great strategic significance for the long-term development of China's human rights as a whole, yet it makes a short-term challenge to the realization of the rights of vulnerable groups. Under the new normal state of economy, it should be targeted to strengthen the protection of the rights of vulnerable groups, which is very important not only for the overall development of China's human rights causes, but also for China to cross over 'the middle-income trap' and to achieve sustainable development of economy.

Is There a "Middle-income Trap"? Theories,Experiences and Relevance to China

Through review of relevant studies and analysis, this article indicates that the ＂middleincome trap ＂ is in line with the framework of the mainstream economic growth theories, and, therefore, it is a useful concept through which we can analyze economic growth phenomena in specific economic growth phases. The empirical experiences of many countries also indicate that at specific middle-income stages, economies with high rates of growth tend to encounter economic slowdown or even stagnation. The article shows that China is facing the challenge of determining how to move smoothly beyond the middle-income stage of economic development, while taking into account the shifting population structure, changing resource endowment and growth patterns. The article, drawing on international experiences, puts forward several policy suggestions relating to improvement in total factor productivity, expansion of human capital accumulation and deepening of system and governmentfunction reforms.

China＇s Path to Overcoming the Double Middle-income Traps

China is at a crucial stage of overcoming the middle-income trap, with the factors that drive economic growth having undergone significant changes, and domestic consumption playing a more important role in economic growth. It is necessary, at this point, to promote mass consumption by expanding the middle-income group. The present paper puts forward the concept of the ＂double middle-income traps.＂ This refers to the situation in which an economy＇s per capita output stagnates and the size of the middle- income group is unable to expand for an extended period of time. These two factors are closely related. Based on data from the Chinese Social Survey conducted by the Institute of Sociology at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the present paper analyzes the scale and development of middle-income groups, and the relationship among middle- income groups, the middle-class and middle-class identity. The marginal consumption propensities of middle-income groups are also considered. The findings of the paper indicate that the expansion of the middle-income group plays an important role in promoting mass consumption, maintaining continuous and stable economic growth, and overcoming the double middle-income traps.

论中国式现代化成功规避和跨越的“民生陷阱”

民生福利是现代化的重要内容,“民生陷阱”是现代化矛盾与陷阱的重要方面,成功规避和跨越负面效应极大的“民生陷阱”,是顺利推进并最终实现现代化的重要条件。中国式现代化是坚持以人民为中心、实现全体人民共同富裕的现代化,其在开创和推进的过程中,总体上有效规避和跨越了民生缺失陷阱、民生福利过度陷阱、贫富两极分化民生陷阱、劣质民主陷阱等比较重大的“民生陷阱”,这是中国式现代化之所以能够成功并取得卓越成就的重要原因。新时代新征程,进一步顺利地推进中国式现代化,并最终实现社会主义现代化强国的战略目标,其重要方面在于,持续规避和跨越各种可能的重大“民生陷阱”。

Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap

The news China surpassed Japan as the world’s second largest economy in 2010 has put China in the limelight. China’s per-capita GDP has reached $4,000, turning the country from a lower middle-income country to an upper middle-income country. But the economic growth model is still extensive and the income gap between the rich and the poor is widening.

中国经济应对当前全球两大挑战的韧性、潜力与长期趋势

中国经济正在从高速增长转向高质量发展,百年大变局对中国经济发展将意味着什么,是需要认真研究分析的一个重要课题。当前,世界经济面临两个重大挑战:一是美国贸易保护主义和逆全球化思潮盛行,严重恶化世界经济发展环境;二是突如其来的新冠肺炎疫情阻碍了贸易和投资,对全球经济造成严重冲击。尽管当前中国经济发展面临前所未有的困难,但中国经济展现的巨大韧性,使我们有条件争取实现2020年合理的经济增长目标;从长期看,中国经济稳中向好的基本面不会发生改变。指标测度发现,2035年中国大陆人均GDP将超过2万美元,能够成功跨越"中等收入陷阱"。

Can Time-Space Compression Promote Urban Economic Growth?Evidence from China’s High-speed Rail Projects

This paper studies the effect of high-speed rail(HSR)on urban economic growth using a panel data comprising 285 Chinese cities in 2007-2017.Combining the endogenous growth model with a difference-in-difference analysis,we extend the horse-mass theory to explain how China may use HSR to avoid the so-called middle-income trap.The paper also examines the efficient boundaries of HSR and simultaneously studies HSR timespace compression as well as the city neighboring ejfects on economic growth.It is found that HSRs efficient boundaries are within the range of 200-1,200 km for provincial capitals and 50-300 km for prefecture-level cities.HSR stimulates economic growth by approximately 0.6 percent,and the neighboring effect accounts for one-quarter of economic growth.Three policy implications are drawn:(i)China needs tofurther reduce the travel times between the inland provincial cities and Beijing,Shanghai or Guangzhou;(ii)China should build a denser HSR network to maximize its economic impact on the vast majority of cities;(Hi)China needs to develop some powerful economic growth centers in the inland areas to lead the development of their neighboring cities.

The Possibility and Approaches to an Upper Middle Growth RateI

This article discusses the challenges facing China＇s economy and assesses the likelihood of China falling into the ＂middle-income trap.＂ In the view of this author, an upper middle growth rate of 6.5% to 7% can be achieved if China undertakes further economic reforms in the areas of agriculture, household registration system, urbanization and social insurance system.

A Study of an Industrialization Strategy for China’s Upper-Middle Income Stage

When the high-income East Asian economies entered the upper-middle income stage,their long-term growth was sustained by their real manufacturing output share and total factor productivity(TFP).This is a typical pattern that is highly consistent with classical development economics,which sees manufacturing as the engine of economic growth.When China became a middle-income country,its share of real manufacturing output and TFP both fell over the same period,exhibiting a theoretical and empirical tendency toward“premature deindustrialization”that increases the risk of being caught in the middle-income trap.Accelerating China’s development as a manufacturing power,advancing high-tech manufacturing and improving the quality and efficiency of traditional industries are realistic options for the country’s industrial development strategy.