Monetary policy rules：Forward-looking and backward-looking in an overlapping generations model

In the framework of an overlapping generations model, forward-looking monetary policy roles and backward-looking monetary policy rules were investigated. It is shown that the monetary steady state is more likely to be indeterminate under an active forwardlooking rule than under the corresponding backward-looking rule. It is also shown that backward-looking roles can render the monetary steady state unstable.

Management Model of Resources Equilibrium Distribution among Overlapping-Generations

The overlapping generation models the western scholars have designed from various perspectives to address different kinds of issues do not reflect Chinese emerging political and economic problems, and cannot be entirely and blindly applied to Chinese practical situation. In this paper the authors endeavor to incorporate some western scholars' research results into their own research findings to present overlapping generations model theory in a new perspective through establishing an overlapping generations theory on population including articulation of concepts and theorems of biological generation, economic generation and social generation and the overlapping periods in biological generation and two overlapping periods in economic generation among three generations. This management model with equilibrium distribution of resource wealth includes overlapping generations length model (6), equilibrium transfer model (θ) and a complete model on equilibrium distribution among generations (δ-θ). The model

Density-based rough set model for hesitant node clustering in overlapping community detection

Overlapping community detection in a network is a challenging issue which attracts lots of attention in recent years.A notion of hesitant node（HN） is proposed. An HN contacts with multiple communities while the communications are not strong or even accidental, thus the HN holds an implicit community structure.However, HNs are not rare in the real world network. It is important to identify them because they can be efficient hubs which form the overlapping portions of communities or simple attached nodes to some communities. Current approaches have difficulties in identifying and clustering HNs. A density-based rough set model（DBRSM） is proposed by combining the virtue of densitybased algorithms and rough set models. It incorporates the macro perspective of the community structure of the whole network and the micro perspective of the local information held by HNs, which would facilitate the further ＂growth＂ of HNs in community. We offer a theoretical support for this model from the point of strength of the trust path. The experiments on the real-world and synthetic datasets show the practical significance of analyzing and clustering the HNs based on DBRSM. Besides, the clustering based on DBRSM promotes the modularity optimization.

Construction of a Computational Scheme for the Fuzzy HIV/AIDS Epidemic Model with a Nonlinear Saturated Incidence Rate

This work aimed to construct an epidemic model with fuzzy parameters.Since the classical epidemic model doesnot elaborate on the successful interaction of susceptible and infective people,the constructed fuzzy epidemicmodel discusses the more detailed versions of the interactions between infective and susceptible people.Thenext-generation matrix approach is employed to find the reproduction number of a deterministic model.Thesensitivity analysis and local stability analysis of the systemare also provided.For solving the fuzzy epidemic model,a numerical scheme is constructed which consists of three time levels.The numerical scheme has an advantage overthe existing forward Euler scheme for determining the conditions of getting the positive solution.The establishedscheme also has an advantage over existing non-standard finite difference methods in terms of order of accuracy.The stability of the scheme for the considered fuzzy model is also provided.From the plotted results,it can beobserved that susceptible people decay by rising interaction parameters.

Management of Air Pollution by a System of Transferable Individual Emission Permits with Overlapping Generations

The purpose of this article is to analyze the effectiveness of a pollution management system through individual permits that are distributed to young people with overlapping generations.From a general equilibrium model,the results show that such a system provides the conditions for optimal pollution management.But because of the non-cooperative behavior of the actors,this policy cannot institute intergenerational altruism.Incentives such as tax or subsidy are needed to get the receiving population to better choose between the physical good whose production satisfies their needs and the quality of the environment that depends on their option to sell the permits to firms or the future generation.

Short-term photovoltaic power forecasting based on a new hybrid deep learning model incorporating transfer learning strategy

The accurate prediction of photovoltaic(PV)power generation is an important basis for hybrid grid scheduling.With the expansion of the scale of PV power plants and the popularization of distributed PV,this study proposes a multilayer PV power generation prediction model based on transfer learning to solve the problems of the lack of data on new PV bases and the low accuracy of PV power generation prediction.The proposed model,called DRAM,concatenates a dilated convolutional neural network(DCNN)module with a bidirectional long short-term memory(BiLSTM)module,and integrates an attention mechanism.First,the processed data are input into the DCNN layer,and the dilation convolution mechanism captures the spatial features of the wide sensory field of the input data.Subsequently,the temporal characteristics between the features are extracted in the BiLSTM layer.Finally,an attention mechanism is used to strengthen the key features by assigning weights to efficiently construct the relationship between the features and output variables.In addition,the power prediction accuracy of the new PV sites was improved by transferring the pre-trained model parameters to the new PV site prediction model.In this study,the pre-training of models using data from different source domains and the correlations between these pre-trained models and the target domain were analyzed.

Enrichment model and major controlling factors of below-source tight oil in Lower Cretaceous Fuyu reservoirs in northern Songliao Basin,NE China

Based on the geochemical,seismic,logging and drilling data,the Fuyu reservoirs of the Lower Cretaceous Quantou Formation in northern Songliao Basin are systematically studied in terms of the geological characteristics,the tight oil enrichment model and its major controlling factors.First,the Quantou Formation is overlaid by high-quality source rocks of the Upper Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation,with the development of nose structure around sag and the broad and continuous distribution of sand bodies.The reservoirs are tight on the whole.Second,the configuration of multiple elements,such as high-quality source rocks,reservoir rocks,fault,overpressure and structure,controls the tight oil enrichment in the Fuyu reservoirs.The source-reservoir combination controls the tight oil distribution pattern.The pressure difference between source and reservoir drives the charging of tight oil.The fault-sandbody transport system determines the migration and accumulation of oil and gas.The positive structure is the favorable place for tight oil enrichment,and the fault-horst zone is the key part of syncline area for tight oil exploration.Third,based on the source-reservoir relationship,transport mode,accumulation dynamics and other elements,three tight oil enrichment models are recognized in the Fuyu reservoirs:(1)vertical or lateral migration of hydrocarbon from source rocks to adjacent reservoir rocks,that is,driven by overpressure,hydrocarbon generated is migrated vertically or laterally to and accumulates in the adjacent reservoir rocks;(2)transport of hydrocarbon through faults between separated source and reservoirs,that is,driven by overpressure,hydrocarbon migrates downward through faults to the sandbodies that are separated from the source rocks;and(3)migration of hydrocarbon through faults and sandbodies between separated source and reservoirs,that is,driven by overpressure,hydrocarbon migrates downwards through faults to the reservoir rocks that are separated from the source rocks,and then migrates laterally through sandbodies.Fourth,the differences in oil source conditions,charging drive,fault distribution,sandbody and reservoir physical properties cause the differential enrichment of tight oil in the Fuyu reservoirs.Comprehensive analysis suggests that the Fuyu reservoir in the Qijia-Gulong Sag has good conditions for tight oil enrichment and has been less explored,and it is an important new zone for tight oil exploration in the future.

Utility of fluid inclusion paleo-temperature in petroleum system modelling:A case study from western offshore,India

The paleo-temperature(Th)data from fluid inclusions are utilized for thermal history modelling using PetroMod software.Generally,bottom hole temperature(BHT)and vitrinite reflectance(Ro)measurements are widely used in petroleum system modelling(PSM)in the oil industry for calibration purposes.Th representing the minimum temperature of fluid entrapment estimated from fluid-inclusion study provides extra support to build the thermal models for PSM.Fluid inclusion parameters along with Rock-Eval pyrolysis analysis have been used to predict the maturity of oil in terms of API gravity as well as the maturity of source rocks respectively.Two exploratory wells RV-1(Mumbai Offshore Basin)and KK4C-A-1(Kerala-Konkan Offshore Basin),India were examined and the T_(h)from most of the fluid inclusions of wells RV-1 and KK4C-A-1 fell in the oil window range of 60-140℃suggesting thermal conditions favourable for oil generation in both of the wells.T_(h)of coeval aqueous inclusions along with the Hydrocarbon Fluid inclusions(HCFIs)was used to calibrate PSM.Vital parameters show that source rocks of well RV-1 are mature and that of well KK4C-A-1 are immature.Two sets of PSM are created in terms of generation and expulsion for the dry wells RV-1 and KK4C-A-1 and calibrated each well using fluid inclusion Th and BHT.From the fluid inclusion analysis method,it is evident that hydrocarbon generation happened in both wells and the paleo-temperature indicates that the formations of both wells were subjected to temperatures in the oil window range,even though it was designated as dry wells in the present scenario.The present study highlights the application of fluid inclusion paleo-temperature(Th)during calibration instead of commonly used methods.We could obtain desirable and accurate data output from PSM using T_(h) calibration.

AUTOMATIC FINIT EELEMENT MODELING OF A WING

This paper is concerned about the automatic finite element modeling of a wing structure. The row and column method is used to identify the structure parts(ribs, spars, skins and pillars). A customization module of PCL(PATRAN Command Language under PATRAN 6.0) code from constructing airfoil curves to creating the entire wing FEM model is designed and developed. The geome tric, mesh density, material, load and boundary parameters can be easily and correctly input with the friendly interactive interface. A VFW614 wing is analyzed from creating airfoil curves to the show of stresses calculated by using NASTRAN 68 as an example. The results show that this customization module is very effective and efficient.

Feature study for improving Chinese overlapping ambiguity resolution based on SVM

In order to improve Chinese overlapping ambiguity resolution based on a support vector machine, statistical features are studied for representing the feature vectors. First, four statistical parameters-mutual information, accessor variety, two-character word frequency and single-character word frequency are used to describe the feature vectors respectively. Then other parameters are tried to add as complementary features to the parameters which obtain the best results for further improving the classification performance. Experimental results show that features represented by mutual information, single-character word frequency and accessor variety can obtain an optimum result of 94. 39%. Compared with a commonly used word probability model, the accuracy has been improved by 6. 62%. Such comparative results confirm that the classification performance can be improved by feature selection and representation.

Kinetics and model of gas generation of source rocks in the deepwater area, Qiongdongnan Basin

In order to investigate the hydrocarbon generation process and gas potentials of source rocks in deepwater area of the Qiongdongnan Basin, kinetic parameters of gas generation （activation energy distribution and frequency factor） of the Yacheng Formation source rocks （coal and neritic mudstones） was determined by thermal simulation experiments in the closed system and the specific KINETICS Software. The results show that the activation energy （Ea） distribution of C1–C5 generation ranges from 50 to 74 kcal/mol with a frequency factor of 2.4×1015 s–1 for the neritic mudstone and the Ea distribution of C1–C5 generation ranges from 49 to 73 kcal/mol with a frequency factor of 8.92×1013 s–1 for the coal. On the basis of these kinetic parameters and combined with the data of sedimentary burial and paleothermal histories, the gas generation model of the Yacheng Formation source rocks closer to geological condition was worked out, indicating its main gas generation stage at Ro （vitrinite reflectance） of 1.25%–2.8%. Meanwhile, the gas generation process of the source rocks of different structural locations （central part, southern slope and south low uplift） in the Lingshui Sag was simulated. Among them, the gas generation of the Yacheng Formation source rocks in the central part and the southern slope of the sag entered the main gas window at 10 and 5 Ma respectively and the peak gas generation in the southern slope occurred at 3 Ma. The very late peak gas generation and the relatively large gas potential indices （GPI：20×10^8–60×10^8 m^3/km^2） would provide favorable conditions for the accumulation of large natural gas reserves in the deepwater area.

A New Growth Model of Fault Attributes in a Strike-Slip Fault System in the Tarim Basin

Fault attributes generally display a consistent power–law-scaling relationship.Based on new 3 D seismic data,however,we found some exceptional fault attribute relationships of lengths(L)–throw(T)(vertical component of displacement),overlap zone length(Lo)–width(Wo)from a strike-slip fault system of the Ordovician carbonates in the Tarim Basin.The L–T relationship shows two linear segments with breakup at^40 km in fault length.This presents an exceptional throw increase in the second stage,which is attributed to a localization of vertical displacement and deformation in overlapping zones other than the different fault scales in a mature fault zone.The Lo–Wo relationship in the overlapping zones shows multiply stepped-shape patterns,suggesting multiple fault differential growth and periodic increase in fault size.Therefore,we propose a new alternative growth model of fault attributes in strike-slip fault zones,in which the overlapping zones accumulated localized displacement and deformation in the intracratonic strike-slip fault zone.

Dynamic modelling and robust current control of wind-turbine driven DFIG during external AC voltage dip

Doubly-Fed Induction Generator （DFIG）, with vector control applied, is widely used in Variable-Speed Constant- Frequency （VSCF） wind energy generation system and shows good performance in maximum wind energy capture. But in two traditional vector control schemes, the equivalent stator magnetizing current is considered invariant in order to simplify the rotor current inner-loop controller. The two schemes can perform very well when the grid is in normal condition. However, when grid disturbance such as grid voltage dip or swell fault occurs, the control performance worsens, the rotor over current occurs and the Fault Ride-Through （FRT） capability of the DFIG wind energy generation system gets seriously deteriorated. An accurate DFIG model was used to deeply investigate the deficiency of the traditional vector control. The improved control schemes of two typical traditional vector control schemes used in DFIG were proposed, and simulation study of the proposed and traditional control schemes, with robust rotor current control using Internal Model Control （IMC） method, was carded out. The validity of the proposed modified schemes to control the rotor current and to improve the FRT capability of the DFIG wind energy generation system was proved by the comparison study.

Load distribution model and voltage static profile of Smart Grid

Voltage profiles of feeders with the connection of distributed generations(DGs) were investigated.A unified typical load distribution model was established.Based on this model,exact expressions of feeder voltage profile with single and double DGs were derived and used to analyze the impact of DG's location and capacity on the voltage profile quantitatively.Then,a general formula of the voltage profile was derived.The limitation of single DG and necessity of multiple DGs for voltage regulation were also discussed.Through the simulation,voltage profiles of feeders with single and double DGs were compared.The voltage excursion rate is 7.40% for only one DG,while 2.48% and 2.36% for double DGs.It is shown that the feeder voltage can be retained in a more appropriate range with multiple DGs than with only one DG.Distributing the total capacity of DGs is better than concentrating it at one point.

A niche model to predict Microcystis bloom decline in Chaohu Lake, China

Cyanobacterial blooms occur frequently in lakes due to eutrophication. Although a number of models have been proposed to forecast algal blooms, a good and applicable method is still lacking. This study explored a simple and effective mathematical-ecological model to evaluate the growth status and predict the population dynamics of Microcystis blooms. In this study, phytoplankton were collected and identified from 8 sampling sites in Chaohu Lake every month from July to October, 2010. The niche breadth and niche overlap of common species were calculated using standard equations, and the potential relative growth rates of Microcystis were calculated as a weighted-value of niche overlap. In July, the potential relative growth rate was 2.79 (a.u., arbitrary units) but then rapidly declined in the following months to -3.99 a.u. in September. A significant correlation (R=0.998, P<0.01) was found in the model between the net-increase in biomass of Microcystis in the field and the predicted values calculated by the niche model, we concluded that the niche model is suitable for forecasting the dynamics of Microcystis blooms. Redundancy analysis indicated that decreases in water temperature, dissolved oxygen and total dissolved phosphorus might be major factors underlying bloom decline. Based on the theory of community succession being caused by resource competition, the growth and decline of blooms can be predicted from a community structure. This may provide a basis for early warning and control of algal blooms.

Mathematical Model and Geometrical Model of Double Pitch ZN-type Worm Gear Set Based on Generation Mechanism

The current researches on the tooth surface mathematical equations and the theory of gearing mainly pay attention to the ordinary type worm gear set（e.g., ZN, ZA, or ZK）. The research of forming mechanism and three-dimensional modeling method for the double pitch worm gear set is not enough. So there are some difficulties in mathematical model deducing and geometry modeling of double pitch ZN-type worm gear set based on generation mechanism. In order to establish the mathematical model and the precise geometric model of double pitch ZN-type worm gear set, the structural characteristics and generation mechanism of the double pitch ZN-type worm gear set are investigated. Mathematical model of the ZN-type worm gear set is derived based on its generation mechanism and the theory of gearing. According to the mathematical model of the worm gear set which has been developed, a geometry modeling method of the double pitch ZN-type worm and worm gear is presented. Furthermore, a geometrical precision calculate method is proposed to evaluate the geometrical quality of the double pitch worm gear set. As a result, the maximum error is less than 6′10–4 mm in magnitude, thus the model of the double pitch ZN-type worm gear set is available to meet the requirements of finite element analysis and engineering application. The derived mathematical model and the proposed geometrical modeling method are helpful to guiding the design, manufacture and contact analysis of the worm gear set.

Study on Spectral Overlap Model for Energy Transfer between J-Multiplets in Rare Earth-Doped Crystals

Based on the experimental data of KY 3F 10∶Tm 3+ reported by Diaf, K ushida′s spectral overlap model (SOM) of energy transfer between J-multipl ets was studied. Firstly, with the help of the Inokuti-Hirayama and Yokota-Tan imoto models, the luminescence decay curve of 3H 4 of Tm 3+ ion was fitted, and the fitted values of corresponding interaction parameters C D A of energy transfer and C DD of energy migration were obtained. Seco ndly, by compared with Kushida′s SOM in which the relevant Judd-Ofelt approxim ative transition rates are known, the average overlap integrals of S DD and S DA were obtained. For S DD, how to treat the contributi on of the electronic-dipole (ED) crystal field transition forbidden by C 4v site symmetry in the calculation of S DD was discussed. For S DA we suggested that, by including the contribution of the phonon sideba nds in the analysis of oscillator strength of transition, Kushida′s SOM of ED- ED resonant energy transfer rate can be extended to non-resonant phonon-assist ed D-A energy transfer. The strengths and widths of phonon sidebands in this ex ample were discussed, and the results were reasonably good.

Changes in proteins related to early nerve repair in a rat model of sciatic nerve injury

Peripheral nerves have a limited capacity for self-repair and those that are severely damaged or have significant defects are challenging to repair. Investigating the pathophysiology of peripheral nerve repair is important for the clinical treatment of peripheral nerve repair and regeneration. In this study, rat models of right sciatic nerve injury were established by a clamping method. Protein chip assay was performed to quantify the levels of neurotrophic, inflammation-related, chemotaxis-related and cell generation-related factors in the sciatic nerve within 7 days after injury. The results revealed that the expression levels of neurotrophic factors(ciliary neurotrophic factor) and inflammationrelated factors(intercellular cell adhesion molecule-1, interferon γ, interleukin-1α, interleukin-2, interleukin-4, interleukin-6, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, prolactin R, receptor of advanced glycation end products and tumor necrosis factor-α), chemotaxis-related factors(cytokine-induced neutrophil chemoattractant-1, L-selectin and platelet-derived growth factor-AA) and cell generation-related factors(granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor) followed different trajectories. These findings will help clarify the pathophysiology of sciatic nerve injury repair and develop clinical treatments of peripheral nerve injury. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of Peking University People's Hospital of China(approval No. 2015-50) on December 9, 2015.

Thermal decomposition kinetics of basic carbonate cobalt nanosheets obtained from spent Li-ion batteries:Deconvolution of overlapping complex reactions

A new non-isothermal method of kinetic analysis was employed to investigate the thermal decomposition kinetic modeling of the basic carbonate cobalt nanosheets（n-BCoC） synthesized from spent lithium-ion batteries（LIBs）. Fraser–Suzuki function was applied to deconvoluting overlapping complex processes from the overall differential thermal curves obtained under the linear heating rate conditions, followed by the kinetic analysis of the discrete processes using a new kinetic analysis method. Results showed that the decomposition of n-BCo C in air occurred through two consecutive reactions in the 136-270 ℃ temperature intervals. Decomposition started by hydroxide component（Co（OH）2） decomposition until to 65% and simultaneously carbonate phase decarbonation began. The process was continued by CO2 evolution and finally carbonate cobalt nanosheets have been produced. The reaction mechanism of the whole process can be kinetically characterized by two successive reactions： a phase boundary contracting reaction followed by an Avrami-Erofeev equation. Mechanistic information obtained by the kinetic study was in good agreement with FT-IR（Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy） and SEM（scanning electron microscopy） results.

Forecasting method of monthly wind power generation based on climate model and long short-term memory neural network

Predicting wind power gen eration over the medium and long term is helpful for dispatchi ng departme nts,as it aids in constructing generation plans and electricity market transactions.This study presents a monthly wind power gen eration forecast!ng method based on a climate model and long short-term memory(LSTM)n eural n etwork.A non linear mappi ng model is established between the meteorological elements and wind power monthly utilization hours.After considering the meteorological data(as predicted for the future)and new installed capacity planning,the monthly wind power gen eration forecast results are output.A case study shows the effectiveness of the prediction method.