Three predictive scores compared in a retrospective multicenter study of nonunion tibial shaft fracture

BACKGROUND Delayed union,malunion,and nonunion are serious complications in the healing of fractures.Predicting the risk of nonunion before or after surgery is challenging.AIM To compare the most prevalent predictive scores of nonunion used in clinical practice to determine the most accurate score for predicting nonunion.METHODS We collected data from patients with tibial shaft fractures undergoing surgery from January 2016 to December 2020 in three different trauma hospitals.In this retrospective multicenter study,we considered only fractures treated with intramedullary nailing.We calculated the tibia FRACTure prediction healING days(FRACTING)score,Nonunion Risk Determination score,and Leeds-Genoa Nonunion Index(LEG-NUI)score at the time of definitive fixation.RESULTS Of the 130 patients enrolled,89(68.4%)healed within 9 months and were classified as union.The remaining patients(n=41,31.5%)healed after more than 9 months or underwent other surgical procedures and were classified as nonunion.After calculation of the three scores,LEG-NUI and FRACTING were the most accurate at predicting healing.CONCLUSION LEG-NUI and FRACTING showed the best performances by accurately predicting union and nonunion.

Multi-Time Scale Operation and Simulation Strategy of the Park Based on Model Predictive Control

Due to the impact of source-load prediction power errors and uncertainties,the actual operation of the park will have a wide range of fluctuations compared with the expected state,resulting in its inability to achieve the expected economy.This paper constructs an operating simulation model of the park power grid operation considering demand response and proposes a multi-time scale operating simulation method that combines day-ahead optimization and model predictive control(MPC).In the day-ahead stage,an operating simulation plan that comprehensively considers the user’s side comfort and operating costs is proposed with a long-term time scale of 15 min.In order to cope with power fluctuations of photovoltaic,wind turbine and conventional load,MPC is used to track and roll correct the day-ahead operating simulation plan in the intra-day stage to meet the actual operating operation status of the park.Finally,the validity and economy of the operating simulation strategy are verified through the analysis of arithmetic examples.

Assessing recent recurrence after hepatectomy for hepatitis Brelated hepatocellular carcinoma by a predictive model based on sarcopenia

BACKGROUND Sarcopenia may be associated with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)following hepatectomy.But traditional single clinical variables are still insufficient to predict recurrence.We still lack effective prediction models for recent recurrence(time to recurrence<2 years)after hepatectomy for HCC.AIM To establish an interventable prediction model to estimate recurrence-free survival(RFS)after hepatectomy for HCC based on sarcopenia.METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 283 hepatitis B-related HCC patients who underwent curative hepatectomy for the first time,and the skeletal muscle index at the third lumbar spine was measured by preoperative computed tomography.94 of these patients were enrolled for external validation.Cox multivariate analysis was per-formed to identify the risk factors of postoperative recurrence in training cohort.A nomogram model was developed to predict the RFS of HCC patients,and its predictive performance was validated.The predictive efficacy of this model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve.RESULTS Multivariate analysis showed that sarcopenia[Hazard ratio(HR)=1.767,95%CI:1.166-2.678,P<0.05],alpha-fetoprotein≥40 ng/mL(HR=1.984,95%CI:1.307-3.011,P<0.05),the maximum diameter of tumor>5 cm(HR=2.222,95%CI:1.285-3.842,P<0.05),and hepatitis B virus DNA level≥2000 IU/mL(HR=2.1,95%CI:1.407-3.135,P<0.05)were independent risk factors associated with postoperative recurrence of HCC.Based on the sarcopenia to assess the RFS model of hepatectomy with hepatitis B-related liver cancer disease(SAMD)was established combined with other the above risk factors.The area under the curve of the SAMD model was 0.782(95%CI:0.705-0.858)in the training cohort(sensitivity 81%,specificity 63%)and 0.773(95%CI:0.707-0.838)in the validation cohort.Besides,a SAMD score≥110 was better to distinguish the high-risk group of postoperative recurrence of HCC.CONCLUSION Sarcopenia is associated with recent recurrence after hepatectomy for hepatitis B-related HCC.A nutritional status-based prediction model is first established for postoperative recurrence of hepatitis B-related HCC,which is superior to other models and contributes to prognosis prediction.

Predictive modeling for postoperative delirium in elderly patients with abdominal malignancies using synthetic minority oversampling technique

BACKGROUND Postoperative delirium,particularly prevalent in elderly patients after abdominal cancer surgery,presents significant challenges in clinical management.AIM To develop a synthetic minority oversampling technique(SMOTE)-based model for predicting postoperative delirium in elderly abdominal cancer patients.METHODS In this retrospective cohort study,we analyzed data from 611 elderly patients who underwent abdominal malignant tumor surgery at our hospital between September 2020 and October 2022.The incidence of postoperative delirium was recorded for 7 d post-surgery.Patients were divided into delirium and non-delirium groups based on the occurrence of postoperative delirium or not.A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify risk factors and develop a predictive model for postoperative delirium.The SMOTE technique was applied to enhance the model by oversampling the delirium cases.The model’s predictive accuracy was then validated.RESULTS In our study involving 611 elderly patients with abdominal malignant tumors,multivariate logistic regression analysis identified significant risk factors for postoperative delirium.These included the Charlson comorbidity index,American Society of Anesthesiologists classification,history of cerebrovascular disease,surgical duration,perioperative blood transfusion,and postoperative pain score.The incidence rate of postoperative delirium in our study was 22.91%.The original predictive model(P1)exhibited an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.862.In comparison,the SMOTE-based logistic early warning model(P2),which utilized the SMOTE oversampling algorithm,showed a slightly lower but comparable area under the curve of 0.856,suggesting no significant difference in performance between the two predictive approaches.CONCLUSION This study confirms that the SMOTE-enhanced predictive model for postoperative delirium in elderly abdominal tumor patients shows performance equivalent to that of traditional methods,effectively addressing data imbalance.

Establishment of a prognosis predictive model for liver cancer based on expression of genes involved in the ubiquitin-proteasome pathway

BACKGROUND The ubiquitin-proteasome pathway(UPP)has been proven to play important roles in cancer.AIM To investigate the prognostic significance of genes involved in the UPP and develop a predictive model for liver cancer based on the expression of these genes.METHODS In this study,UPP-related E1,E2,E3,deubiquitylating enzyme,and proteasome gene sets were obtained from the Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes(KEGG)database,aiming to screen the prognostic genes using univariate and multivariate regression analysis and develop a prognosis predictive model based RESULTS Five genes(including autophagy related 10,proteasome 20S subunit alpha 8,proteasome 20S subunit beta 2,ubiquitin specific peptidase 17 like family member 2,and ubiquitin specific peptidase 8)were proven significantly correlated with prognosis and used to develop a prognosis predictive model for liver cancer.Among training,validation,and Gene Expression Omnibus sets,the overall survival differed significantly between the high-risk and low-risk groups.The expression of the five genes was significantly associated with immunocyte infiltration,tumor stage,and postoperative recurrence.A total of 111 differentially expressed genes(DEGs)were identified between the high-risk and low-risk groups and they were enriched in 20 and 5 gene ontology and KEGG pathways.Cell division cycle 20,Kelch repeat and BTB domain containing 11,and DDB1 and CUL4 associated factor 4 like 2 were the DEGs in the E3 gene set that correlated with survival.CONCLUSION We have constructed a prognosis predictive model in patients with liver cancer,which contains five genes that associate with immunocyte infiltration,tumor stage,and postoperative recurrence.

Development and validation of a predictive model for acute-onchronic liver failure after transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt

BACKGROUND Transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt(TIPS)is a cause of acute-onchronic liver failure(ACLF).AIM To investigate the risk factors of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS in patients with cirrhosis and construct a prediction model.METHODS In total,379 patients with decompensated cirrhosis treated with TIPS at Nanjing Drum Tower Hospital from 2017 to 2020 were selected as the training cohort,and 123 patients from Nanfang Hospital were included in the external validation cohort.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors.The prediction model was established based on the Akaike information criterion.Internal and external validation were conducted to assess the performance of the model.RESULTS Age and total bilirubin(TBil)were independent risk factors for the incidence of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS.We developed a prediction model comprising age,TBil,and serum sodium,which demonstrated good discrimination and calibration in both the training cohort and the external validation cohort.CONCLUSION Age and TBil are independent risk factors for the incidence of ACLF within 1 year after TIPS in patients with decompensated cirrhosis.Our model showed satisfying predictive value.

Model Predictive Control for Cascaded H-Bridge PV Inverter with Capacitor Voltage Balance

We designed an improved direct-current capacitor voltage balancing control model predictive control(MPC)for single-phase cascaded H-bridge multilevel photovoltaic(PV)inverters.Compared with conventional voltage balanc-ing control methods,the method proposed could make the PV strings of each submodule operate at their maximum power point by independent capacitor voltage control.Besides,the predicted and reference value of the grid-connected current was obtained according to the maximum power output of the maximum power point tracking.A cost function was con-structed to achieve the high-precision grid-connected control of the CHB inverter.Finally,the effectiveness of the proposed control method was verified through a semi-physical simulation platform with three submodules.

半固体培养法制备非洲猪瘟病毒pA104R蛋白的单克隆抗体

为了快速、高效制备非洲猪瘟病毒(ASFV)单克隆抗体,本研究通过大肠杆菌系统表达并纯化了ASFV重组蛋白pA104R。以ASFV重组蛋白pA104R为抗原,分别比较了CpG ODN联合氢氧化铝佐剂和常规弗氏佐剂两种免疫策略,并重点比较半固体培养法和常规有限稀释法来制备ASFV pA104R单克隆抗体的效率。结果显示,本研究获得了相对分子质量为3.5×104的ASFV重组可溶性蛋白pA104R,通过其与CpG ODN联合氢氧化铝佐剂免疫小鼠,在第21 d即可达到融合要求,本试验方法(重组蛋白pA104R与CpG ODN联合氢氧化铝佐剂免疫)较重组蛋白pA104R与常规弗氏佐剂免疫节省14 d时间。通过半固体培养法筛选单克隆的试验周期比有限稀释法缩短28 d,并减少了亚克隆的工作量。半固体培养法获得5株阳性杂交瘤细胞,挑选效价较高的3株(9A4、9H6、11F5)进行鉴定,重链均为IgG,轻链均为KAPPA。纯化后的3株单克隆抗体针对pA104蛋白和全病毒蛋白质的效价分别达1∶160000~1∶320000和1∶200~1∶400。本研究优选了CpG ODN联合氢氧化铝佐剂结合半固体培养法筛选pA104R的单克隆抗体,为单克隆抗体制备提供了快速高效的新策略。

帕金森病患者血清NPASDP-4,MBP水平表达与认知功能障碍及严重程度的诊断价值研究

目的探讨帕金森病患者血清神经元PAS结构域蛋白4(neuronal Per-Arnt-Sim domain protein 4,NPASDP-4)、髓鞘碱性蛋白(myelin basic protein,MBP)水平表达与认知功能障碍(cognitive impairment,CI)及严重程度的诊断价值研究。方法选取中国人民解放军联勤保障部队第九〇九医院收治的138例帕金森病患者为帕金森病组,同期该院体检中心的健康体检者69例为健康对照组,并根据是否发生CI以及其严重程度进一步将帕金森病组患者分为认知功能正常组(n=55)、轻度CI组(n=51)和痴呆组(n=32)。收集受试者一般资料;ELISA法检测血清NPASDP-4和MBP水平;相关性分析采用Spearman等级相关或Pearson线性相关;诊断价值分析采用ROC曲线;影响因素分析采用多因素Logistic回归。结果与健康对照组比较,帕金森病组血清NPASDP-4(6.75±0.48ng/ml vs2.38±0.31ng/ml),MBP(8.34±0.65μg/L vs 3.54±0.42μg/L)水平升高,差异具有统计学意义(t=68.751,55.761,均P<0.05)。认知功能正常组、轻度CI组、痴呆组H-Y分期比较,差异有统计学意义(χ2=7.788,P<0.05)。UPDRS-Ⅲ评分与认知功能正常组(41.95±10.36分)比较,轻度CI组(47.92±11.63分)、痴呆组(50.78±13.69分)评分升高,差异具有统计学意义(H=6.672,均P<0.05)。认知功能正常组、轻度CI组、痴呆组病程(4.28±0.54,4.71±0.58和5.16±0.63年)及血清NPASDP-4(5.89±0.40,6.83±0.55和8.12±0.54ng/ml),MBP(6.65±0.56,8.94±0.69和10.27±0.70μg/L)水平依次显著升高(H=24.114,207.950,355.594,均P<0.05),MMSE评分(28.47±0.94,24.51±1.35和17.09±2.57分)、MoCA评分(27.45±1.03,20.18±1.92和11.75±2.53分)、GPCOG总分(13.47±0.69,10.25±1.04和8.97±0.82分)依次显著降低(H=515.005,775.933,327.584,均P<0.05),差异具有统计学意义。帕金森病患者血清NPASDP-4,MBP水平均与病程(r=0.316,0.358)、H-Y分期(r=0.345,0.384)、UPDRS-Ⅲ评分(r=0.371,0.396)呈显著正相关(P<0.05),与MMSE评分(r=-0.468,-0.517)、MoCA评分(r=-0.504,-0.569)、GPCOG总分(r=-0.527,-0.538)呈显著负相关(均P<0.05)。血清NPASDP-4,MBP水平及二者联合诊断帕金森病患者CI的曲线下面积(AUC)分别为0.850,0.930和0.960,诊断帕金森病患者CI严重程度的AUC分别为0.866,0.803和0.933。H-Y分期中期[OR(95%CI):4.725(1.742~12.814)],H-Y分期晚期[OR(95%CI):5.083(1.919~13.464)]、UPDRS-Ⅲ评分[OR(95%CI):3.257(1.464~7.246)]、NPASDP-4[OR(95%CI):5.324(1.516~18.701)]和MBP[OR(95%CI):5.769(2.459~13.533)]是帕金森病患者CI的影响因素(均P<0.05);NPASDP-4[OR(95%CI):4.768(2.382~9.543)],MBP[OR(95%CI):5.846(3.141~10.882)]是帕金森病患者CI严重程度的影响因素(均P<0.05)。结论帕金森病患者血清NPASDP-4和MBP呈高水平,且均与CI及其严重程度密切相关,可能具有一定的临床诊断价值。

Development and validation of a predictive model for patients with post-extubation dysphagia

BACKGROUND:Swallowing disorder is a common clinical symptom that can lead to a series of complications,including aspiration,aspiration pneumonia,and malnutrition.This study aimed to investigate risk factors of post-extubation dysphagia(PED)in intensive care unit(ICU)patients with endotracheal intubation,and to develop a risk-predictive model for PED,which could serve as an assessment tool for the prevention and control of PED.METHODS:Patients retrospectively selected from June to December 2021 in a tertiary hospital served as the derivation cohort.Patients recruited from the same hospital from March to June 2022served as the external validation cohort for the predictive model.We used a combination of variable screening and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator(LASSO)regression to select the most useful candidate predictors and checked the multicollinearity of independent variables using the variance inflation factor method.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to calculate the odds ratio(OR;95%confidence interval[95%CI])and P-value for each variable to predict diagnosis.The screened risk factors were introduced into R software to build a nomogram model.The performance of the model,including discrimination ability,calibration,and clinical benefit,was evaluated by plotting the receiver operating characteristic(ROC),calibration,and decision curves.RESULTS:A total of 305 patients were included in this study.Among them,235 patients(53PED vs.182 non-PED)were enrolled in the derivation cohort,while 70 patients(17 PED vs.53 nonPED)were enrolled in the validation cohort.The independent predictors included age,pause of sedatives,level of consciousness,activities of daily living(ADL)score,nasogastric tube,sore throat,and voice disorder.These predictors were used to establish the predictive nomogram model.The model demonstrated good discriminative ability,and the area under the ROC curve(AUC)was 0.945(95%CI 0.904-0.970).Applying the predictive model to the validation cohort demonstrated good discrimination with an AUC of 0.907(95%CI 0.831-0.983)and good calibration.The decision-curve analysis of this nomogram showed a net benefit of the model.CONCLUSION:A predictive model that incorporates age,pause of sedatives,level of consciousness,ADL score,nasogastric tube,sore throat,and voice disorder may have the potential to predict PED in ICU patients.

化痰通遂汤联合督脉三针对脑卒中后吞咽障碍患者脂质过氧化及血清NPAS4、PARK7的影响

目的探讨化痰通遂汤联合督脉三针对脑卒中后吞咽障碍对患者脂质过氧化及血清NPAS4、PARK7的影响。方法研究将前瞻性选取2020年3月—2022年4月在医院诊疗的86例脑卒中后吞咽障碍患者为受试对象,根据数字表法将其分成试验组与对照组,各43例,对照组予以化痰通遂汤治疗,试验组予以化痰通遂汤治疗的同时采用督脉三针治疗,密切观察并对比两组研究对象的疗效,治疗前后的氧化应激和脂质过氧化指标,血清NPAS4、PARK7水平,NIHSS评分、FMA评分、SSA评分及SIS评分。结果应用化痰通遂汤联合督脉三针治疗后的试验组疗效明显高于单纯应用化痰通遂汤治疗的对照组(P<0.05);治疗后两组患者的SOD、iso-PGs指标较治疗前均上升(P<0.05),且试验组SOD指标高于对照组(P<0.05),但试验组iso-PGs指标较治疗前无明显差异(P>0.05),且试验组低于对照组(P<0.05),MDA指标治疗较治疗前显著下降(P<0.05),且试验组低于对照组(P<0.05);治疗前两组的NIHSS评分、SSA评分、FMA评分及SIS评分均无显著性差异(P>0.05),治疗后试验组患者的FMA评分及SIS评分均显著高于对照组(P<0.05),而NIHSS评分、SSA评分显著低于对照组(P<0.05);治疗前两组血清NPAS4、PARK7水平较治疗前均无显著性差异(P>0.05),且试验组患者血清NPAS4、PARK7水平均显著低于对照组(P<0.05)。结论应用化痰通遂汤联合督脉三针治疗脑卒中后吞咽障碍,效果极佳,联用能够改善氧化应激以及脂质过氧化指标,降低血清NPAS4、PARK7水平,提高患者生存水平,安全可靠,临床应用前景较为宽阔。

Development and validation of a predictive model for the assessment of potassium-lowering treatment among hyperkalemia patients

BACKGROUND:Hyperkalemia is common among patients in emergency department and is associated with mortality.While,there is a lack of good evaluation and prediction methods for the effi cacy of potassium-lowering treatment,making the drug dosage adjustment quite diffi cult.We aimed to develop a predictive model to provide early forecasting of treating eff ects for hyperkalemia patients.METHODS:Around 80%of hyperkalemia patients(n=818)were randomly selected as the training dataset and the remaining 20%(n=196)as the validating dataset.According to the serum potassium(K+)levels after the fi rst round of potassium-lowering treatment,patients were classifi ed into the eff ective and ineff ective groups.Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to develop a prediction model.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve and calibration curve analysis were used for model validation.RESULTS:In the training dataset,429 patients had favorable eff ects after treatment(eff ective group),and 389 had poor therapeutic outcomes(ineff ective group).Patients in the ineff ective group had a higher percentage of renal disease(P=0.007),peripheral edema(P<0.001),oliguria(P=0.001),or higher initial serum K+level(P<0.001).The percentage of insulin usage was higher in the effective group than in the ineff ective group(P=0.005).After multivariate logistic regression analysis,we found age,peripheral edema,oliguria,history of kidney transplantation,end-stage renal disease,insulin,and initial serum K+were all independently associated with favorable treatment eff ects.CONCLUSION:The predictive model could provide early forecasting of therapeutic outcomes for hyperkalemia patients after drug treatment,which could help clinicians to identify hyperkalemia patients with high risk and adjust the dosage of medication for potassium-lowering.

单向CF/PA6复合材料性能劣化及老化寿命预测

利用热压成型工艺制备出碳纤维(CF)/尼龙6(PA6)复合材料单向板,并将复合材料试样置于蒸馏水热水浴中,分别在25,60,80℃下进行不同时间的湿热老化,再对湿热老化后复合材料试样进行吸湿测试、三点弯曲测试、微观形貌表征,探究复合材料的吸湿规律、力学性能劣化规律和微观形貌变化,并对复合材料的长期寿命进行预测。结果发现,复合材料在25,60℃下的吸湿行为基本符合Fick扩散定律,而80℃下在老化最后阶段出现了背离Fick扩散定律现象。复合材料的弯曲强度随老化温度、老化时间的增加呈下降趋势,分别在25,60,80℃下老化120 d后,试样弯曲强度分别下降了22.78%,25.0%,26.25%。但是老化温度、老化时间对弯曲弹性模量无显著影响,且CF与PA6树脂之间的界面黏合性能随着温度、时间的增加逐渐变差。以绍兴2021年平均温度作为服役温度,基于加速老化测试模型和阿伦尼乌斯理论建立了CF/PA6复合材料在服役环境下剩余弯曲强度的预测模型,可预测到1 400 d后,CF/PA6复合材料的弯曲强度保留率在64.8%左右。

基于TPA‑MBLSTM模型的超短期风电功率预测

风速变化的间歇性和波动性给风功率的精准预测带来极大挑战,充分挖掘风电功率与风速等关键因素的内在规律是提高风电功率预测精度的有效途径。提出一种结合时间模式注意力(time pattern attention,TPA)机制的多层堆叠双向长短期记忆网络的超短期风电功率预测方法。首先,利用基于密度的含噪声空间聚类方法(den⁃sity based spatial clustering with noise,DBSCAN)和线性回归算法进行风功率数据集的异常值检测,利用k最邻近(k⁃nearest neighbor,KNN)插值法重构异常点数据;其次,综合考虑风电功率与各气象特征的内在关联性,在MBLSTM网络中引入TPA机制合理分配时间步长权重,捕捉风电功率时间序列潜在逻辑规律;最后,利用实验仿真数据进行分析验证本文方法的有效性,该方法能够充分挖掘风功率与风速影响因素的关系,从而提高其预测精度。

ABCD2评分、PAF、sCD40L、C1q对短暂性脑缺血发作后脑梗死的预测价值及其危险因素分析

目的探讨ABCD2评分及血清血小板活化因子(PAF)、可溶性CD40配体(sCD40L)、补体1q(C1q)对短暂性脑缺血发作后脑梗死的预测价值。方法回顾性选取2020年11月至2022年12月该院收治的94例短暂性脑缺血发作后脑梗死患者作为脑梗死组,另选取同期收治的146例短暂性脑缺血发作后非脑梗死患者作为非脑梗死组。比较两组临床资料,采用多因素Logistic回归分析短暂性脑缺血发作后脑梗死的危险因素,并绘制受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线分析ABCD2评分及血清PAF、sCD40L、C1q单独及联合检测对短暂性脑缺血发作后脑梗死的预测价值。结果脑梗死组和非脑梗死组颈部血管斑块、发作持续时间、发作频率情况,ABCD2评分及血清PAF、sCD40L、C1q、白细胞介素(IL)-6、超敏C反应蛋白(hs-CRP)水平比较,差异均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,有颈部血管斑块、发作持续时间≥15 min、发作频率≥2次/月,以及ABCD2评分,血清PAF、sCD40L、C1q、IL-6、hs-CRP水平升高是短暂性脑缺血发作后脑梗死的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。ROC曲线分析结果显示,ABCD2评分及血清PAF、sCD40L、C1q联合预测短暂性脑缺血发作后脑梗死的灵敏度、曲线下面积分别为96.81%、0.927,高于或大于ABCD2评分及血清PAF、sCD40L、C1q单独预测(P<0.05);ABCD2评分、血清PAF单独预测的灵敏度分别高于血清sCD40L、C1q单独预测的灵敏度(P<0.05);ABCD2评分及血清PAF、sCD40L单独预测的特异度高于血清C1q单独、4项指标联合预测的特异度(P<0.05),血清C1q单独预测的特异度高于4项指标联合预测的特异度(P<0.05)。结论短暂性脑缺血发作后脑梗死的发生与患者有颈部血管斑块、发作持续时间≥15 min、发作频率≥2次/月,以及ABCD2评分,血清PAF、sCD40L、C1q、IL-6、hs-CRP水平升高均密切相关,且ABCD2评分及血清PAF、sCD40L、C1q联合检测对短暂性脑缺血发作后脑梗死的预测价值更高。

PA66的改性及应用进展

尼龙66(PA66)具有较多优异的特性,得到了广泛应用。但是,其仍存在部分缺陷,需要对PA66进行化学与物理改性,提升其性能。化学改性主要为共聚改性,利用二聚酸、己内酰胺等与PA66发生共聚、接枝、交联等化学反应,改变PA66的分子链结构,提升力学、阻燃等性能,降低其吸水率。物理改性包括填充改性、共混改性及直接添加助剂改性。填充改性又可分为3种,分别为填充玻璃纤维(GF)、碳纤维(CF)等的纤维增强改性,填充硅灰石、石墨等的无机矿物填充改性及填充碳纳米管(CNTs)、石墨烯(GN)等的纳米粒子填充改性。共混改性是将环氧树脂、聚烯烃等与PA66共混,增强韧性、耐磨性等。直接添加助剂改性是直接添加阻燃、抗菌剂等与PA66共混,赋予PA66阻燃、抗菌等性能,扩展了PA66的应用范围,更有利于其在新能源、汽车等高性能、功能化产业的发展。

Kernel-Based State-Space Kriging for Predictive Control

In this paper, we extend the state-space kriging(SSK) modeling technique presented in a previous work by the authors in order to consider non-autonomous systems. SSK is a data-driven method that computes predictions as linear combinations of past outputs. To model the nonlinear dynamics of the system, we propose the kernel-based state-space kriging(K-SSK), a new version of the SSK where kernel functions are used instead of resorting to considerations about the locality of the data. Also, a Kalman filter can be used to improve the predictions at each time step in the case of noisy measurements. A constrained tracking nonlinear model predictive control(NMPC) scheme using the black-box input-output model obtained by means of the K-SSK prediction method is proposed. Finally, a simulation example and a real experiment are provided in order to assess the performance of the proposed controller.

不同尺寸石墨烯增强PA66纤维的效果分析

为提高PA66的力学性能,以石墨烯(GN)为基础填料,十二烷基苯磺酸钠(SDBS)作为表面活性剂,将GN均匀分散在SDBS的水溶液中,利用超声波粉碎技术,分别获得大尺寸(LGN)、中尺寸(MGN)、小尺寸(SGN)的GN,然后用熔融共混法制备出不同尺寸以及不同添加量的GN改性PA66,并对其性能进行了表征。研究结果表明:对于添加不同尺寸的GN,质量分数0.1%的SGN加入时,改性纤维的断裂强度提高至6.34 cN/dtex,较纯PA66提高了12.8%。同时SGN改性PA66的相对结晶度提升最大,为40.2%,相较于纯PA66提高了19.6%;对于不同添加量的SGN,SGN质量分数为0.1%时,改性纤维的断裂强度达到最大,力学性能提升最大。SGN的加入有利于异相成核,结晶速度相对加快。SGN改性PA66的最大分解速率温度为421.7℃,较纯PA66提高了9℃左右,说明SGN与PA66基体间发生了界面相互作用,具有热失重的延缓效果,加入SGN后PA66不易发生热分解。认为:添加一定量SGN能够更好提升PA66的各项性能。

基于CiteSpace的我国护理风险预测模型可视化分析

目的:从学术文献的角度梳理、分析和归纳我国护理风险预测模型的研究进展、关键问题和重点领域。方法:运用CiteSpace 6.2.R1软件对中国知网、万方数据库、维普数据库收录的关于护理风险预测模型的文献进行分析,检索时限为建库至2023年4月13日。结果:共纳入584篇文献,我国护理领域风险预测模型发文量从2019年开始大幅增长,湖州师范学院是发文量贡献最大的机构,研究机构相对分散,作者合作不紧密。重点关注群体为老年人、护士、妇女;研究热点主要集中在术后护理、并发症、谵妄、脑卒中等;考虑病人预后转归、智能数据挖掘会是未来研究的重点方向。结论:我国护理风险预测模型研究处于快速发展阶段,基于人工智能算法建模已有一定成果,未来应加强护理信息技术建设,为同一研究问题构建多种模型,通过验证寻求最优模型,从而为护理工作提供更加科学的参考依据。

Finite-time economic model predictive control for optimal load dispatch and frequency regulation in interconnected power systems

This paper presents a finite-time economic model predictive control(MPC)algorithm that can be used for frequency regulation and optimal load dispatch in multi-area power systems.Economic MPC can be used in a power system to ensure frequency stability,real-time economic optimization,control of the system and optimal load dispatch from it.A generalized terminal penalty term was used,and the finite-time convergence of the system was guaranteed.The effectiveness of the proposed model predictive control algorithm was verified by simulating a power system,which had two areas connected by an AC tie line.The simulation results demonstrated the effectiveness of the algorithm.