Early warning system for shallow landslides using rainfall threshold and slope stability analysis

A combined cluster and regression analysis were performed for the first time to identify rainfall threshold that triggers landslide events in Amboori, Kerala, India. Amboori is a tropical area that is highly vulnerable to landslides. The 2, 3, and 5-day antecedent rainfall data versus daily rainfall was clustered to identify a cluster of critical events that could potentially trigger landslides. Further, the cluster of critical events was utilized for regression analysis to develop the threshold equations. The 5-day antecedent(xvariable) vs. daily rainfall(y-variable) provided the best fit to the data with a threshold equation of y = 80.7-0.1981 x. The intercept of the equation indicates that if the 5-day antecedent rainfall is zero, the minimum daily rainfall needed to trigger the landslide in the Amboori region would be 80.7 mm. The negative coefficient of the antecedent rainfall indicates that when the cumulative antecedent rainfall increases, the amount of daily rainfall required to trigger monsoon landslide decreases. The coefficient value indicates that the contribution of the 5-day antecedent rainfall is～20% to the landslide trigger threshold. The slope stability analysis carried out for the area, using Probabilistic Infinite Slope Analysis Model(PISA-m), was utilized to identify the areas vulnerable to landslide in the region. The locations in the area where past landslides have occurred demonstrate lower Factors of Safety(FS) in the slope stability analysis. Thus, rainfall threshold analysis together with the FS values from slope stability can be suitable for developing a simple, cost-effective, and comprehensive early-warning system for shallow landslides in Amboori and similar regions.

A GIS tool for infinite slope stability analysis(GIS-TISSA)

Landslides are one of the most common and a destructive natural hazard in mountainous terrain and thus evaluating their potential locations and the conditions under which they may occur is crucial for their hazard assessment.Shallow landslide occurrence in soil and regolith covered slopes are often modeled using the infinite slope model,which characterizes the slope stability in terms of a factor of safety(FS) value.Different approaches have been followed to also assess and propagate uncertainty through such models.Haneberg(2004) introduced the use of the First Order Second Moment(FOSM) method to propagate input uncertainty through the infinite slope model,further developing the model and implementing it in the PISA-m software package(Haneberg,2007).Here we present an ArcPy implementation of PISA-m algorithms,which can be run from ESRI ArcMap in an entirely consistent georeferenced framework,and which we call "GIS Tool for Infinite Slope Stability Analysis"(GIS-TISSA).Users can select between different input options,e.g.,following a similar input style as for PISA-m,i.e., using an ASCII.csv parameters input file,or providing each input parameter as a raster or constant value,through the program graphic user interface.Analysis outputs can include FS mean and standard deviation estimates,the probability of failure(FS <1), and a reliability index(RI) calculation for FS.Following the same seismic analysis approach as in PISA-m, the Newmark acceleration can also be done,for which raster files of the mean,standard deviation,probability of exceedance,and RI are also generated.Verification of the code is done by replicating the results obtained with the PISA-m code for different input options,within a 10-5 relative error.Monte Carlo modeling is also applied to validate GIS-TISSA outputs,showing a good overall correspondence.A case study was performed for Kannur district,Kerala,India,where an extensive landslide databa se for the year 2018 was available.81.19% of the actual landslides fell in zones identified by the model as unstable.GIS-TISSA provides a user-friendly interface,particularly for those users familiar with ESRI ArcMap,that is fully embedded in a GIS framework and which can then be used for further analysis without having to change software platforms and do data conversions.The ArcPy toolbox is provided as a.pyt file as an appendix as well as hosted at the weblink:https://pages.mtu.edu/~toommen/GeoHazard.html.