The Sierra Norte de Puebla, Mexico, has a record of hundreds of mass removal processes triggered by rainfall, where the intensity and duration of the rain are the main mechanisms. In order to determine threshold value...The Sierra Norte de Puebla, Mexico, has a record of hundreds of mass removal processes triggered by rainfall, where the intensity and duration of the rain are the main mechanisms. In order to determine threshold values for precipitation as a cause of a landslide, the prior, marginal and conditional probabilities were calculated. A Bayesian method was used for one-dimensional (precipitation intensity) and two-dimensional (precipitation intensity and duration) analysis. This suggested a high probability of mass movement when the precipitation exceeds 60 mm within ten days. A proposed warning system is based on classes in which the threshold is exceeded.展开更多
In this work, some non-homogeneous Poisson models are considered to study the behaviour of ozone in the city of Puebla, Mexico. Several functions are used as the rate function for the non-homogeneous Poisson process. ...In this work, some non-homogeneous Poisson models are considered to study the behaviour of ozone in the city of Puebla, Mexico. Several functions are used as the rate function for the non-homogeneous Poisson process. In addition to their dependence on time, these rate functions also depend on some parameters that need to be estimated. In order to estimate them, a Bayesian approach will be taken. The expressions for the distributions of the parameters involved in the models are very complex. Therefore, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to estimate them. The methodology is applied to the ozone data from the city of Puebla, Mexico.展开更多
The results of dispersion modeling of carbon monoxide are reported in this paper. The results of applying the technique of Rapid Assessment of Sources of Environmental Pollution (RASEP) database and the Air Monitoring...The results of dispersion modeling of carbon monoxide are reported in this paper. The results of applying the technique of Rapid Assessment of Sources of Environmental Pollution (RASEP) database and the Air Monitoring State System in the City of Puebla, México, were employed. Concentrations of carbon monoxide emitted by cars inferred by RASAP technique with those reported by the environmental monitoring station “Nymphs”, were compared. The date of 21 June 2005-2010 was selected during the peak hour traffic flow. The dispersion of carbon monoxide was modeled by software DISPER and SCRI software, in order to infer the exposure levels of carbon monoxide in the study area. The estimated and monitored concentrations were evaluated with the Mexican regulations for population’s health protection. Regarding the dispersion model, SCRI was discarded for the target validation because it only allows modeling on specific areas. Moreover, the modeling software allowed DISPER simulations with linear sources of car exhaust, so this advantage is considered appropriate to continue using this program. Both estimates obtained by RASEP, as modeled by DISPER and recorded by the monitoring system exceed the maximum permissible limits of NOM-021-SSA1-1993 getting an impermissible for the area of influence of the assessment monitoring station. The DISPER software has potential use for such evaluations, but more work is required on the system for their inferences can be validated by reproducible physical and chemical measurements.展开更多
文摘The Sierra Norte de Puebla, Mexico, has a record of hundreds of mass removal processes triggered by rainfall, where the intensity and duration of the rain are the main mechanisms. In order to determine threshold values for precipitation as a cause of a landslide, the prior, marginal and conditional probabilities were calculated. A Bayesian method was used for one-dimensional (precipitation intensity) and two-dimensional (precipitation intensity and duration) analysis. This suggested a high probability of mass movement when the precipitation exceeds 60 mm within ten days. A proposed warning system is based on classes in which the threshold is exceeded.
文摘In this work, some non-homogeneous Poisson models are considered to study the behaviour of ozone in the city of Puebla, Mexico. Several functions are used as the rate function for the non-homogeneous Poisson process. In addition to their dependence on time, these rate functions also depend on some parameters that need to be estimated. In order to estimate them, a Bayesian approach will be taken. The expressions for the distributions of the parameters involved in the models are very complex. Therefore, Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms are used to estimate them. The methodology is applied to the ozone data from the city of Puebla, Mexico.
文摘The results of dispersion modeling of carbon monoxide are reported in this paper. The results of applying the technique of Rapid Assessment of Sources of Environmental Pollution (RASEP) database and the Air Monitoring State System in the City of Puebla, México, were employed. Concentrations of carbon monoxide emitted by cars inferred by RASAP technique with those reported by the environmental monitoring station “Nymphs”, were compared. The date of 21 June 2005-2010 was selected during the peak hour traffic flow. The dispersion of carbon monoxide was modeled by software DISPER and SCRI software, in order to infer the exposure levels of carbon monoxide in the study area. The estimated and monitored concentrations were evaluated with the Mexican regulations for population’s health protection. Regarding the dispersion model, SCRI was discarded for the target validation because it only allows modeling on specific areas. Moreover, the modeling software allowed DISPER simulations with linear sources of car exhaust, so this advantage is considered appropriate to continue using this program. Both estimates obtained by RASEP, as modeled by DISPER and recorded by the monitoring system exceed the maximum permissible limits of NOM-021-SSA1-1993 getting an impermissible for the area of influence of the assessment monitoring station. The DISPER software has potential use for such evaluations, but more work is required on the system for their inferences can be validated by reproducible physical and chemical measurements.
