The Pacific saury(Cololabis saira)is one of the major harvested species in the temperate waters of the northwestern Pacific Ocean(NPO).The Catch-MSY model uses catch data and basic life history information to estimate...The Pacific saury(Cololabis saira)is one of the major harvested species in the temperate waters of the northwestern Pacific Ocean(NPO).The Catch-MSY model uses catch data and basic life history information to estimate the Maximum Sustainable Yield(MSY)for data-limited fisheries.Since there is considerable uncertainty in the current status of the Pacific saury stock in the NPO,the Catch-MSY model was used in this study to estimate MSY on the basis of catch data and life history information from the North Pacific Fisheries Commission(NPFC).During the process,17 scenarios,according to different prior distributions of the intrinsic rate of increase(r)and carrying capacity(K),were set for sensitivity analysis.Moreover,the influence of different catch time series and different process errors were taken into account.The results show the following:(1)there was a strong negative correlation relationship between ln(r)and ln(K);the MSY increases with an increase in the lower limit of r;(2)The time series of catch data had a limited impact on the assessment results,whereas the results of the model were sensitive to the annual catch in the first and last years;(3)The estimated MSYs of the Pacific saury were 47.37×10^4 t(41.57×10^4 t to 53.17×10^4 t)in scenario S1A and 47.53×10^4 t(41.79×10^4 t to 53.27×10^4 t)in scenario S1B.Given the uncertainty of the Catch-MSY model,maintaining a management target between 50×10^4 t and 70×10^4 t was a better management regulation.This study shows that the Catch-MSY model is a useful choice for estimating the MSY of data-limited species such as the Pacific saury.展开更多
根据1985—2013年日本秋刀鱼(Cololabis saira)生产数据,结合海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、海表温度距平值(sea surface temperature anomaly,SSTA)及亲潮、黑潮环境数据,探究太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific decadal oscillation,...根据1985—2013年日本秋刀鱼(Cololabis saira)生产数据,结合海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、海表温度距平值(sea surface temperature anomaly,SSTA)及亲潮、黑潮环境数据,探究太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO)冷、暖2种气候模态下秋刀鱼产卵场、索饵场海况特征及资源丰度差异。结果表明,PDO暖期内单位捕捞量努力量(catch per unit effect,CPUE)略高于冷期,另CPUE与PDO指数存在滞后关系,且前者滞后于后者3年时相关系数最大(–0.318);PDO冷、暖模态转换对索饵场SST影响较产卵场大(P<0.05),产卵场及索饵场SSTA与PDO指数间均呈负相关性,滞后时间分别为–1和0年时相关系数最大;PDO暖期内黑潮经向流量年间变化率低于冷期,冷、暖2种模态下亲潮春季占有面积存在显著差异(P<0.01),且冷、暖模态转换对亲潮影响程度大于黑潮。研究表明,2种气候模态通过影响秋刀鱼产卵场及索饵场的海表温、海况环境,进而对西北太平洋秋刀鱼资源量产生年间波动影响。展开更多
秋刀鱼(Cololabis saira)是西北太平洋温带海域的主要捕捞对象之一,也是西北太平洋渔业重要的组成部分。本研究根据北太平洋渔业委员会(NPFC)统计的2003~2017年渔获量数据以及中国秋刀鱼组织提交的单位捕捞努力渔获量数据(Catch per uni...秋刀鱼(Cololabis saira)是西北太平洋温带海域的主要捕捞对象之一,也是西北太平洋渔业重要的组成部分。本研究根据北太平洋渔业委员会(NPFC)统计的2003~2017年渔获量数据以及中国秋刀鱼组织提交的单位捕捞努力渔获量数据(Catch per unit effort, CPUE),基于贝叶斯Schaefer剩余产量模型,分基准方案和敏感性分析方案对西北太平洋秋刀鱼资源状况进行了评估,并对其管理策略做了风险分析。结果显示,基准方案和敏感性分析方案下模型参数预测值以及生物学参考点估计值比较相近。在基准方案下,估算的最大可持续产量(Maximum sustainable yield,MSY)为75.26×10^4 t,最大可持续产量的资源量BMSY为240.14×10^4 t,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.32。在敏感性分析方案下,估算的最大的可持续产量MSY为70.03×10^4t,最大可持续产量的资源量BMSY为232.53×10^4t,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.31。该海域秋刀鱼资源状况良好,未经受过度捕捞。风险评估分析表明,为使秋刀鱼资源可持续利用,需将捕获率设定在0.3左右。展开更多
基金Supported by the National Sci-Tech Support Plan“Fishing Technology and New Resources in Oceanic Fisheries”(No.2013BAD13B05)。
文摘The Pacific saury(Cololabis saira)is one of the major harvested species in the temperate waters of the northwestern Pacific Ocean(NPO).The Catch-MSY model uses catch data and basic life history information to estimate the Maximum Sustainable Yield(MSY)for data-limited fisheries.Since there is considerable uncertainty in the current status of the Pacific saury stock in the NPO,the Catch-MSY model was used in this study to estimate MSY on the basis of catch data and life history information from the North Pacific Fisheries Commission(NPFC).During the process,17 scenarios,according to different prior distributions of the intrinsic rate of increase(r)and carrying capacity(K),were set for sensitivity analysis.Moreover,the influence of different catch time series and different process errors were taken into account.The results show the following:(1)there was a strong negative correlation relationship between ln(r)and ln(K);the MSY increases with an increase in the lower limit of r;(2)The time series of catch data had a limited impact on the assessment results,whereas the results of the model were sensitive to the annual catch in the first and last years;(3)The estimated MSYs of the Pacific saury were 47.37×10^4 t(41.57×10^4 t to 53.17×10^4 t)in scenario S1A and 47.53×10^4 t(41.79×10^4 t to 53.27×10^4 t)in scenario S1B.Given the uncertainty of the Catch-MSY model,maintaining a management target between 50×10^4 t and 70×10^4 t was a better management regulation.This study shows that the Catch-MSY model is a useful choice for estimating the MSY of data-limited species such as the Pacific saury.
文摘根据1985—2013年日本秋刀鱼(Cololabis saira)生产数据,结合海表温度(sea surface temperature,SST)、海表温度距平值(sea surface temperature anomaly,SSTA)及亲潮、黑潮环境数据,探究太平洋年代际振荡(Pacific decadal oscillation,PDO)冷、暖2种气候模态下秋刀鱼产卵场、索饵场海况特征及资源丰度差异。结果表明,PDO暖期内单位捕捞量努力量(catch per unit effect,CPUE)略高于冷期,另CPUE与PDO指数存在滞后关系,且前者滞后于后者3年时相关系数最大(–0.318);PDO冷、暖模态转换对索饵场SST影响较产卵场大(P<0.05),产卵场及索饵场SSTA与PDO指数间均呈负相关性,滞后时间分别为–1和0年时相关系数最大;PDO暖期内黑潮经向流量年间变化率低于冷期,冷、暖2种模态下亲潮春季占有面积存在显著差异(P<0.01),且冷、暖模态转换对亲潮影响程度大于黑潮。研究表明,2种气候模态通过影响秋刀鱼产卵场及索饵场的海表温、海况环境,进而对西北太平洋秋刀鱼资源量产生年间波动影响。
文摘秋刀鱼(Cololabis saira)是西北太平洋温带海域的主要捕捞对象之一,也是西北太平洋渔业重要的组成部分。本研究根据北太平洋渔业委员会(NPFC)统计的2003~2017年渔获量数据以及中国秋刀鱼组织提交的单位捕捞努力渔获量数据(Catch per unit effort, CPUE),基于贝叶斯Schaefer剩余产量模型,分基准方案和敏感性分析方案对西北太平洋秋刀鱼资源状况进行了评估,并对其管理策略做了风险分析。结果显示,基准方案和敏感性分析方案下模型参数预测值以及生物学参考点估计值比较相近。在基准方案下,估算的最大可持续产量(Maximum sustainable yield,MSY)为75.26×10^4 t,最大可持续产量的资源量BMSY为240.14×10^4 t,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.32。在敏感性分析方案下,估算的最大的可持续产量MSY为70.03×10^4t,最大可持续产量的资源量BMSY为232.53×10^4t,此时的捕捞死亡率为0.31。该海域秋刀鱼资源状况良好,未经受过度捕捞。风险评估分析表明,为使秋刀鱼资源可持续利用,需将捕获率设定在0.3左右。
