Relationship between Meridional Displacement of the Monthly East Asian Jet Stream in the Summer and Sea Surface Temperature in the Tropical Central and Eastern Pacific

Previous studies have shown that meridional displacement of the East Asian upper-tropospheric jet stream (EAJS) dominates interannual variability of the EAJS in the summer months.This study investigates the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with meridional displacement of the monthly EAJS during the summer.The meridional displacement of the EAJS in June is significantly associated with the tropical central Pacific SST anomaly in the winter of previous years,while displacements in July and August are related to tropical eastern Pacific SST anomalies in the late spring and concurrent summer.The EAJS tends to shift southward in the following June (July and August) corresponding to a warm SST anomaly in the central (eastern) Pacific in the winter (late spring-summer).The westerly anomaly south of the Asian jet stream is a result of tropical central Pacific warm SST anomaly-related warming in the tropical troposphere,which is proposed as a possible reason for southward displacement of the EAJS in June.The late spring-summer warm SST anomaly in the tropical eastern Pacific,however,may be linked to southward displacement of the EAJS in July and August through a meridional teleconnection over the western North Pacific (WNP) and East Asia.

The Influence of Meridional Variation in North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex

This study examines the dependence of Arctic stratospheric polar vortex(SPV)variations on the meridional positions of the sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies associated with the first leading mode of North Pacific SST.The principal component 1(PC1)of the first leading mode is obtained by empirical orthogonal function decomposition.Reanalysis data,numerical experiments,and CMIP5 model outputs all suggest that the PC1 events(positive-minus-negative PC1 events),located relatively northward(i.e.,North PC1 events),more easily weaken the Arctic SPV compared to the PC1 events located relatively southward(i.e.,South PC1 events).The analysis indicates that the North PC1-related Aleutian low anomaly is located over the northern North Pacific and thus enhances the climatological trough,which strengthens the planetary-scale wave 1 at mid-to-high latitudes and thereby weakens the SPV.The weakened stratospheric circulation further extends into the troposphere and favors negative surface temperature anomalies over Eurasia.By contrast,the South PC1-related Aleutian low anomaly is located relatively southward,and its constructive interference with the climatological trough is less efficient at high latitudes.Thus,the South PC1 events could not induce an evident enhancement of the planetary-scale waves at high latitudes and thereby a weakening of the SPV on average.The Eurasian cooling associated with South PC1 events(positive-minus-negative PC1 events)is also not prominent.The results of this study suggest that the meridional positions of the PC1 events may be useful for predicting the Arctic SPV and Eurasian surface temperature variations.

The effect of sea surface temperature increase on the potential habitat of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

In the Northwest Pacific Ocean, the squid jigging fisheries from China, Japan and other countries and regions have targeted the west winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid（Ommastrephes bartramii） from August to November since the 1970 s. This squid is a short-lived ecological opportunist with a life-span of about one year,and its population is labile and recruitment variability is driven by the environment or climate change. This variability provides a challenge for ones to forecast the key habitats affected by climate change. The catch data of O. bartramii from Chinese squid jigging fishery and the satellite-derived sea surface temperature（SST） data are used in the Northwest Pacific Ocean from August to November of 1998 to 2004, the SST preferences of O.bartramii corresponding to high values of catch per fishing day（CPUE） are determined and monthly potential habitats are predicted using a histogram analysis of the SST data. The possible changes in the potential habitats of O. bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean are estimated under four climate change scenarios based on the Fourth Assessment Report（AR4） of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, i.e., 0.5, 1, 2 and 4°C increases in the SST because of the climate change. The results reveal an obvious poleward shift of the potential habitats of O. bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean.

THE CORRELATION BETWEEN THE PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE(SST) and PRECIPITATION OVER NW CHINA

With the singular value decomposition (SVD), correlation analysis has been conducted between the Pacific Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) and northwestern China precipitation over March May (MAM). The result shows that there is good relationship between the North Pacific and spring precipitation in northwestern China. When the SST is of the peak El Ni駉 phase, precipitation is less over this part of the country except for the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau; when the SST for the months DJF is of the mature El Ni駉 phase, precipitation is more over the region in the subsequent March May; when the North Pacific SST for DJF is of the La Ni馻 pattern, precipitation is less over the plateau in the subsequent March May. For the Pacific SST, the westerly drift, kuroshio current, Californian current and north equatorial current are all significantly correlating with the March May precipitation in northwestern China. Specifically, the SST in DJF over the kuroshio current region is out of phase with the precipitation in northern Xinjiang, i.e. when the former is low, the latter is more. In northwestern China, regions in which March May precipitation response to the variation of SST in the Pacific Ocean are northern Xinjiang, the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and areas off its northeastern part, the desert basin and western part of the Corridor of the Great Bend of Yellow River valley (Corridor).

Correlations between Sea Surface Temperature in Eastern Equatorial Pacific and Rain Days over China in Summer

Sea-surface temperature (SST) in the eastern, equatorial Pacific and rain days over China in summer are analysed using correlation moments that is proposed by author and principal component analysis(PCA). Occurrences of the strong rain-day anomalies over China are associated with extreme SSTs in some years. Areas significantly affected by the phenomena include North and Northeast China.

Experiments in numerical modelling of the Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies

By using the atmosphere-ocean coupled model (CGCM) which is composed of a 2-level global atmospheric general circulation model and a 4-layer Pacific oceanic general circulation model developed in the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of Chinese Academy of Sciences, and two model climatological fields got from the two independent models' numerical integrations respectively, the Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) from 1988 to 1989 are simulated in this paper with observed atmospheric general circulation data and sea surface temperature fields as initial conditions and monthly coupling scheme. In order to remove systematic biases of the model climatological fields, interaction variables between atmosphere and ocean are also corrected simultaneously. The experiments show that the simulation results can be improved effectively if these interaction variables are corrected in spite of the fact that there always exist systematic biases in independent numerical simulations of atmospheric part and oceanic part within CGCM. The basic characteristics of the observed Pacific SSTA in September and October 1988 have been simulated by using the correction scheme, such as the negative SSTA domain in the whole E-quatorial Pacific east to 150°E and the positive SSTA domain in the Western Pacific, the northern subtropical Pacific and nearly the whole Southern Pacific. Further numerical simulations show that the model can simulate not only the SSTA in the Pacific and its seasonal variations but also its interannual changes (for example, La Nino event in the Equatorial Pacific terminated after May 1989) to a certain degree. Furthermore, some problems existing in experiment processes and what we shoud do in the following stage are also discussed and analysed in this paper.

The PNA wavetrain and the sea surface temperature in the Northern Pacific

In this paper, the response of the atmospheric 3-5 year cycle to Northern Pacific SST is discussed, The results are as follows:1. From the simultaneous temporal correlations between the Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST, the westerly dirft area's SST and the Northern Pacific SST at all gridpoints, we find that there are three correlative regions in the Northern Pacific SST field, they are the westerly drift area, the Equatorial Eastern Pacific and the Alaska Bay , and their structures are very similar to the PNA pattern in the atmosphere The difference PTI between the Equatorial Eastern Pacific SST anomaly and the westerly drift area's SST anomaly can indicate the change of the PNA pattern of the Northern Pacific SST anomaly. It can represent SST change of 65 % areas over the Northern Pacific and can keep watch on El Nino and un-El Nino.2. Simultaneous temporal correlative field between PTI and filtered 500hPa (there is 3-5 year cycle only ) of the Northern Hemisphere presents clear PNA structure. The responses of the filtered 500hPa to El Nino and to un-EI Nino produce +PNA and -PNA wavetrains respectively.3. According to the different positions of the sea-surface temperature rise (drop) ,El Nino (un-EI Nino )can be divided into two classes: east-pattern and middle-pattern. The responses of the filtered 500hPa to the east-pattern and to the middle-pattern will produce PNA and EAA wavetrain respectively. This indicates that the responses of the atmosphere to the stationary heat sources in diffrent areas will produce wavetrains in diffrent track.

CHARACTERISTICS OF MEI-YU PRECIPITATION AND SVD ANALYSIS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE YANGTZE-HUAIHE RIVERS VALLEYS AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN

Based on the precipitation data of Meiyu at 37 stations in the valleys of Yangtze and Huaihe Rivers from 1954 to 2001, the temporal-spatial characteristics of Meiyu precipitation and their relationships with the sea surface temperature in northern Pacific are investigated using such methods as harmonic analysis, empirical orthogonal ftmction （EOF）, composite analysis and singular value decomposition （SVD）. The results show that the temporal evolution and spatial distribution of Meiyu precipitation are not homogeneous in the Yangtze-Huaihe Rivers basins but with prominent inter-annual and inter-decadal variabilities. The key region between the anomalies of Meiyu precipitation and the monthly sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTA） lies in the west wind drift of North Pacific, which influences the precipitation anomaly of Meiyu precipitation over a key period of time from January to March in the same year. When the SST in the North Pacific west wind drift is warmer （colder） than average during these months, Meiyu precipitation anomalously increases （decreases） in the concurrent year. Results of SVD are consistent with those of composite analysis which pass the significance test of Monte-Carlo at 0.05.

The low frequency oscillations of the sea surface temperature in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific and El Nino formation

-In this paper the variations of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific are analysed. The results show that there are two peaks in the spectrum. One is the low frequency oscillation with a period of 3 - 5 years, and the other is the quasi-biennial oscillation. The former shows a westward migration in the warm episode of SSTA and the latter has the opposite trend. The El Nino events will be formed while the two frquency bands are in phase in the warming stage of SSTA in the Equatorial Eastern Pacific

Characteristics of Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Their Influences on the Onset of South China Sea Summer Monsoon

The characteristics of sea surface temperature anomalies （SSTAs） in the tropical oceans and their influences on the onset of South China Sea summer monsoon （SCSSM） have been studied.The anomaly of SST in tropical Pacific Ocean exerts persistence impact for one to three months on atmospheric circulations.If the warm pool becomes anomalously warmer during an earlier period from February to April,the SCSSM breaks out earlier,and vice versa.Singular value decomposition （SVD） and composite analysis have shown that,in La Ni（n）a pattern,the convection over Western Pacific will occur earlier and be stronger than normal,which favors the convergence at a lower layer over Western Pacific,as well as the strengthening of upwelling branch of Walker circulation,leading to an earlier burst of westerly in the southern South China Sea.Moreover,the convection in Sumatra appears earlier than normal and favors the westerly evolution in eastern Indian Ocean,resulting in the splitting of the subtropical high belt and an early onset of SCSSM.However,the atmospheric circulation anomaly is reversed in El Ni（n）o pattern.

Warming over the North Pacific can intensify snow events in Northeast China

The variation of winter snowfall intensity over Northeast China and its relationship with the autumn North Pacific SST are investigated for the period 1960–2012. An upward trend is apparent for the winter snowfall intensity over Northeast China during the last half-century, coinciding with an increasing autumn SST over the North Pacific. Their interannual correlation coefficient reaches up to 0.58 for the past five decades, and 0.42 after their trends are removed. Further analyses indicate that the warming SST during autumn may persist into winter. Correspondingly, large parts of East Asia and the North Pacific are dominated by an anticyclonic anomaly, which can induce an anomalous southeasterly over Northeast China, weaken the northerly wind, then warm the surface, increase the water vapor content and intensify snowfall events. Thus, the autumn North Pacific SST can be considered as a key predictor for winter snowfall events over Northeast China. Results from leaveone-out cross-validation and independent validation both show a significant correlation and a small RMSE between prediction and observation. Therefore, the autumn SST over the North Pacific is suggested as a potential predictor for winter snowfall intensity in Northeast China.

Effect of Spatial and Temporal Scales on Habitat Suitability Modeling:A Case Study of Ommastrephes bartramii in the Northwest Pacific Ocean

Temporal and spatial scales play important roles in fishery ecology,and an inappropriate spatio-temporal scale may result in large errors in modeling fish distribution.The objective of this study is to evaluate the roles of spatio-temporal scales in habitat suitability modeling,with the western stock of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid （Ornmastrephes bartramii） in the northwest Pacific Ocean as an example.In this study,the fishery-dependent data from the Chinese Mainland Squid Jigging Technical Group and sea surface temperature （SST） from remote sensing during August to October of 2003-2008 were used.We evaluated the differences in a habitat suitability index model resulting from aggregating data with 36 different spatial scales with a combination of three latitude scales （0.5°,1 ° and 2°）,four longitude scales （0.5°,1°,2° and 4°）,and three temporal scales （week,fortnight,and month）.The coefficients of variation （CV） of the weekly,biweekly and monthly suitability index （SI） were compared to determine which temporal and spatial scales of SI model are more precise.This study shows that the optimal temporal and spatial scales with the lowest CV are month,and 0.5° latitude and 0.5° longitude for O.bartramii in the northwest Pacific Ocean.This suitability index model developed with an optimal scale can be cost-effective in improving forecasting fishing ground and requires no excessive sampling efforts.We suggest that the uncertainty associated with spatial and temporal scales used in data aggregations needs to be considered in habitat suitability modeling.

ON 3.5-YEAR COUPLED OSCILLATION BETWEEN NORTHERN OSCILLATION AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC

In this paper, we have analyzed the processes of temporal and spatial development in the interaction be- tween the Northern Oscillation and the sea surface temperature of the cquatorial Pacific. It is revealed that between them there is a closed negative feedback process and the whole period including their influence, feedback and adjustment to each other is about 3.5 years. Furthermore, we have discussed the physical processes responsible for various links between the Northern Oscillation and the sea surface temperature of the equatorial Pacific. A physical model on 3.5-year coupled oscillation caused by the air-sea interaction in the tropical Pacific is postulated.

THE EFFECTS OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OVER THE EQUATORIAL WESTERN PACIFIC AND THE INDIAN OCEAN ON THE ASIAN SUMMER MONSOON

In this paper, the p-σ five layer primitive equation model segmented by mountains and physical parameterizations including short wave radiation; long wave radiation; large-scale and convective condensation; heat and moisture transport from surface to the first model level is used. The horizonial resolution is 5° lat. ×5° long. with the integration region from 25°S to 55°N and from 5°W eastward to 175°W. The model was spun up with perpetual June boundary conditions and forcing starting with June zonal mean heights and geostrophic wind field. In order to investigate the effects of SST (sea surface tempefuture) over the equatorial Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean on the Asian summer monsoon, four sets of numerical experments with positive anomalies over the equatorial Western Pacific, and positive and negative anomalies over the Western Indian Ocean, and zonal mean SST (the control case) are performed. The experimental results show that the South Asian low in the lower troposphere and the anticyclone over the South Asia in the uppet troposphere intensified when positive SST anomalies over the equatorial Western Pacific is included. A statistical test method for simulations is proposed. Finally, the influence mechanism of the SST anomalies over the equatorial oceans is discussed. It is worth stressing that the effects of the SST over the equatorial oceans on the Asian summer monsoon can arise as a result of interaction of SST anomalies, atmospheric flow field and heat sources and sinks in the atmosphere.

THE EFFECTS OF THE ARCTIC SEA ICE ON THE VARIATIONS OF ATMOSPHERIC GENERAL CIRCULATION AND CLIMATE

The SST anomaly of the central-eastern equatorial Pacific and the arctic sea ice anomalies of the four districts lo- cated respectively in 160°E—110°W,110°W—20°W,70°E—160°E and 20°W—70°E are taken as five separate factors. And the relationship between each factor and the atmospheric general circulation and the climate is investigated by observational analysis and numerical experiments.It is shown that the effects of the arctic sea ice anomalies on the varia- tions of atmospheric circulation and climate are comparable to or even in some cases greater than that of EI Nino events.So one should pay much attention to the study of polar sea ice anomalies in climate research.