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Investments in Human Capital: Elements of Investments, Their Valuation, and the Related Financial Performance Ratios 被引量:1
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作者 Franko Milost 《Chinese Business Review》 2013年第7期509-520,共12页
Investments in human capital (employees) include investments in the direct assurance of working abilities, investments in health and well-being, and investments in loyalty to the company. These investments are cruci... Investments in human capital (employees) include investments in the direct assurance of working abilities, investments in health and well-being, and investments in loyalty to the company. These investments are crucial for the long-term existence and development of a company, but their value is not disclosed on the assets side of the classical balance sheet. The most important argument of the mentioned approach's promoters is that the economic benefits stemming from such investments are uncertain. However, investments in human capital are those with the highest long-term benefits for the company. Therefore, human capital is the only element of the business process that can add value. Other elements (equipment, materials, and services) just transfer their value to products and services. In this paper, the elements of investments in human capital and the methods used to evaluate these investments are addressed. In addition, uniquely shaped financial performance ratios related to investments in human capital are presented along with the system of integrated ratios. 展开更多
关键词 human capital INVESTMENTS value added financial ratios human resource accounting
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The Relationship Between Intellectual Capital (IC) and Stock Market Performance: Empirical Evidence From Italy 被引量:4
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作者 Domenico Celenza Fabrizio Rossi 《Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing》 2012年第11期1729-1741,共13页
Intellectual capital (IC) is an important source of value for companies. The competitive firm invests in new productive ideas through scientific and technological researches of the human factor and services. The tra... Intellectual capital (IC) is an important source of value for companies. The competitive firm invests in new productive ideas through scientific and technological researches of the human factor and services. The traditional factors of"old economy" based on physical assets have been replaced or at least reinforced, with the belief that the "new economy" takes its steps mainly through IC. The knowledge workers, at every organizational level, have the knowledge that allows the organization to be competitive and deal with the complexity of the environment by creating intellectual added value. In particular, the proposed analysis consists with an empirical way to show other financial indicators and market-to-book (MTB) value from the perspective of creating value for shareholders based on the dynamics of companies' performance, as value-added intellectual capital (VAICTM) is capable of expressing a direct relationship with the return on equity (ROE). The traditional financial information cannot ensure the high efficiency of a stock market and the need for IC reporting to explain intangible asset contribution in company performance. 展开更多
关键词 intellectual capital (IC) evaluation method value-added intellectual capital (VAICTM) knowledge-based firms stock market performance financial ratios
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Effect of Turkish Bank Capital Structure of Basel Ⅱ Criteria 被引量:1
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作者 Huseyin Serdar YAL CINKAYA Mehmet Ali AKTAS 《Chinese Business Review》 2013年第3期186-194,共9页
Performing the functions of the bank's own funds lack of funds, those living in them to pass on more of those who use and quite a large amount of capital to determine the risks and managing them are facing. Chain of ... Performing the functions of the bank's own funds lack of funds, those living in them to pass on more of those who use and quite a large amount of capital to determine the risks and managing them are facing. Chain of crises in financial markets spread to other sectors see that starting. This phenomenon depending on the potential risks of financial market actors, and especially banks, system identification, measurement, and control needs to be increased. This is referred to as the Basel Accords, depending on the needs the agreement of risk management has emerged. At first glance, the Basel Ⅱ Accord in terms of risk management in financial institutions risk management recommendations to the perception of the principles of the Basel Ⅱ Accord, but with a specific timetable, gradually emerges as a set of rules that must be passed as risk management. Finally, the financial crisis spread across the world from the United States, how much it reveals that risk management in the financial markets. In this study, capital adequacy ratio (CAR) banks operating in Turkey's correlation analysis investigated the effect of the banks. 展开更多
关键词 Basel capital adequacy ratio (CAR) CRISIS RISK
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Working Capital Management and Firms’ Profitability: Evidence from Quoted Firms on the Nigerian Stock Exchange
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作者 F. O. Olaoye J. A. Adekanbi O. E. Oluwadare 《Intelligent Information Management》 2019年第3期43-60,共18页
Over the years, it appeared that firms failed to subject short-term investments to proper management thereby leading to either excessive or inadequate working capital which in turn affected their profitability. To emp... Over the years, it appeared that firms failed to subject short-term investments to proper management thereby leading to either excessive or inadequate working capital which in turn affected their profitability. To empirically satisfy this, this paper examined working capital management and firms’ profitability in Nigeria quoted firms on Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE). A panel data methodology was used with different regression estimators to analyze this relationship based on a balanced panel of 10 listed firms during the period 2008-2017. It was discovered that cash collection period and cash payment period exerted a negative impact on return on assets, though the impact was only significant for cash payment period on the ground of &#8722;0.064 (p = 0.000 &#8722;0.032 (p = 0.077 > 0.05). Also discovered was that both the current ratio and inventory period exerted a positive impact on return on assets, though the impact was only significant for current ratio on the ground of 8.172 (p = 0.000 0.05). The study concluded that working capital management affected firms’ profitability in Nigeria. Therefore it was recommended that while the shorter collection was maintained, payment to creditors should not be elongated so as to enjoy cash discount (if any) and that firms should be proactive in the management of raw materials in order to avoid idle resources that might negatively impact their financial performance. 展开更多
关键词 Working capital Management Return on Assets CASH Collection PERIOD CASH PAYMENT PERIOD Current ratio Inventory PERIOD
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Piketty’s Capital-Income Theory Reconsidered for a Small Open Economy with Increasing Savings Rate
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作者 Yasunori Fujita 《Open Journal of Statistics》 2016年第1期25-30,共6页
Since Piketty offered a new view of capital/income ratio, numerous attempts have been made to examine the relationship between return on capital, economic growth and the capital/income ratio. This paper attempts to sh... Since Piketty offered a new view of capital/income ratio, numerous attempts have been made to examine the relationship between return on capital, economic growth and the capital/income ratio. This paper attempts to shed new light on this field. More precisely, following recent literatures that pay attention to dynamics of external balance sheets of countries, we examine if Piketty’s results for large countries are robust for a country that takes the world rate of return on capital as given and whose savings rate increases gradually from negative value. It is revealed that for such a country, (1) Kuznets curve is drawn and (2) capital/income ratio decreases in accordance with a rise in savings rate and return on capital. 展开更多
关键词 Small Open Economy capital/Income ratio Kuznets Curve Negative Savings Rate
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Calibrating the Level of Capital: The Way We See It
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作者 Ryo Kato Shun Kobayashi Yumi Saita 《Journal of Mathematics and System Science》 2011年第1期23-42,共20页
This paper aims to propose a framework for estimating the optimal levels of capital at banks, elaborating factors such as liquidity and macroeconomic conditions. Firstly, as a preamble, the authors attempt to reorgani... This paper aims to propose a framework for estimating the optimal levels of capital at banks, elaborating factors such as liquidity and macroeconomic conditions. Firstly, as a preamble, the authors attempt to reorganize the variety of policy proposals for enhancing financial sector regulation. In light of the broad perspective of the prudential policy framework, the authors discuss the role of bank capital in enhancing banking-sector resilience. Secondly, the authors lay out an early warning system (EWS) to predict a financial crisis where the role of capital and liquidity are explicitly captured. Then, the authors apply the EWS as a component of a cost-benefit analysis (CBA) to gauge the benefit from raising capital and liquidity requirements, as more stringent regulations are expected to reduce the probability of financial ,crisis. On the other hand, financial-sector regulations should come along with certain costs. To quantify the cost, the authors employ some existing macroeconomic models to estimate the cost of raising capital and liquidity requirements. Combining the EWS (for benefit calculation) with the macroeconomic models (for cost calculation), the authors provide a full-fledged CBA framework that can detemaine the optimal levels of capital that strike the right balance between the costs and benefits of the financial-sector regulation. The main results indicate that the optimal level of bank capital would considerably vary depending on the level of liquidity indicators both on the asset and liability sides of banks' balance sheets as well as macroeconomic conditions, typically represented by housing market inflation. Finally, the CBA framework suggests that banks could stand in a better shape with a counter-cyclical capital buffer to be well-prepared for a prospective distress. 展开更多
关键词 capital ratio LIQUIDITY financial crisis probit model bank regulation.
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Determinant Factors of Capital Structure of Firms-An Empirical Analysis Based on Evidence From Chinese Listed Retail Companies
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作者 Weihan FENG 《Management Studies》 2022年第1期32-43,共12页
This paper investigates the effectiveness of various factors upon the capital structure decisions of Chinese firms by conducting an empirical analysis of Chinese-listed retail companies.An unbalanced panel dataset was... This paper investigates the effectiveness of various factors upon the capital structure decisions of Chinese firms by conducting an empirical analysis of Chinese-listed retail companies.An unbalanced panel dataset was formed with a sample of 110 companies observed for 12 years(2010~2021).Each observation is measured quarterly.Traditional explanatory variables are adopted in the study,including profitability,company size,tangibility of assets,internal financing ability,tax ratio,growth opportunities,and volatility.By employing the Fama-Macbeth approach,the regression results are interpreted to determine the impact of independent variables upon the leverage a company takes on.To solve the reverse causality problem,we include the lag term(last quarter’s data)of the debt-to-equity ratio as control variables.Consistent with previous theoretical and empirical studies,firms’leverage ratio is positively related to size,tangibility,tax ratio,and last quarter’s debt level.Companies’profitability and internal financing ability are negatively correlated with their debt-to-equity ratio.Firms’earning volatility and growth opportunities do not show significant relationship with the debt-to-equity ratio.The study has provided more empirical evidence on capital structure theories regarding emerging financial markets. 展开更多
关键词 capital structure theories Chinese-listed retail companies unbalanced panel data set leverage ratio emerging financial markets
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劳动收入变化中的要素收入结构和技能溢价:理论与估计
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作者 李静 张静 《商学研究》 2024年第2期14-26,共13页
提高劳动报酬在收入分配体系中的比重是构建新发展格局和实现共同富裕的重要驱动力,本文基于2010—2021年沪深A股上市公司构成的面板数据,从技能溢价和劳资收入比的视角出发,采用固定效应和Tobit模型探讨其对劳动收入份额的影响、作用... 提高劳动报酬在收入分配体系中的比重是构建新发展格局和实现共同富裕的重要驱动力,本文基于2010—2021年沪深A股上市公司构成的面板数据,从技能溢价和劳资收入比的视角出发,采用固定效应和Tobit模型探讨其对劳动收入份额的影响、作用机制以及其中存在的异质性。研究发现,技能溢价和劳资收入比对劳动收入份额呈显著的负向影响,在经过内生性问题处理和一系列稳健性检验后,结论依然成立。进一步研究发现,技能劳动雇佣比对技能溢价有显著的负向影响。因此,应继续推动技术创新和引导技术进步,改善不同技能劳动要素收入及资本要素收入的关系,以实现高质量发展与共同富裕的双赢。 展开更多
关键词 劳动收入份额 技能溢价 劳资收入比 技能劳动雇佣比
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数字金融、融资约束与企业资本劳动比
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作者 唐勇 王蓉 吕太升 《新疆农垦经济》 2024年第11期69-80,共12页
文章以2011—2021年中国沪深A股上市企业为研究样本,深入剖析了数字金融对企业资本劳动比的影响、作用机制以及异质性。研究发现,数字金融能够显著提升企业资本劳动比。机制分析发现,数字金融通过缓解融资约束有效提升企业资本劳动比。... 文章以2011—2021年中国沪深A股上市企业为研究样本,深入剖析了数字金融对企业资本劳动比的影响、作用机制以及异质性。研究发现,数字金融能够显著提升企业资本劳动比。机制分析发现,数字金融通过缓解融资约束有效提升企业资本劳动比。异质性检验发现,数字金融对企业资本劳动比的影响因数字金融结构、企业内部特征与外部环境的差异而存在异质性,具体为数字金融覆盖广度能够显著提升企业资本劳动比,数字化程度对企业资本劳动比的影响呈显著的正“U”型曲线,使用深度的影响不显著;数字金融对小规模企业、非国有企业、劳动密集型行业企业、非衰退期企业、东部地区企业以及市场化水平较高地区企业资本劳动比提升的促进作用更显著。对此,提出优化数字金融发展环境,引导企业利用数字金融提升资本劳动比,营造公平竞争的市场环境促进企业健康发展的建议。 展开更多
关键词 数字金融 资本劳动比 融资约束
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数据要素对劳动和资本的配置效应:机理分析与实证检验 被引量:12
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作者 曾晶 余泳泽 缪言 《中南财经政法大学学报》 CSSCI 北大核心 2024年第1期148-160,共13页
本文通过构建包含互联网平台主体的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,探究了数据要素变革劳动和资本要素配置的机理,并利用动态面板模型实证检验了数据要素成本、数字化技术创新与数据要素质量影响就业、投资和资本装备率的真实效应。研究表明:数据要... 本文通过构建包含互联网平台主体的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,探究了数据要素变革劳动和资本要素配置的机理,并利用动态面板模型实证检验了数据要素成本、数字化技术创新与数据要素质量影响就业、投资和资本装备率的真实效应。研究表明:数据要素成本降低使得完全竞争条件下的产品价格走低,价格效应短期挤出劳动,长期挤入资本,提升资本装备率;数字化技术创新提高了全要素生产率,要素重组升级引致效率变革,通过替代效应促进就业、降低投资,降低资本装备率;数据质量改进通过协同效应稳定和扩大就业,阻止资本无边界的扩张,降低资本装备率。本文厘清了数据要素对劳动和资本单个要素及其比例关系的配置效应和作用机理,为制定数字经济背景下的就业与投资政策提供了决策参考。 展开更多
关键词 数据要素 劳动要素 资本要素 资本装备率 价格效应 替代效应 协同效应
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资本新规对银行业务发展的影响及应对策略研究
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作者 罗芳 《中国商论》 2024年第7期119-122,共4页
近年来,由于受内外部环境影响,部分商业银行信用风险相继暴露、资产盈利能力下滑、核心资本持续承压,资本新规的落地对银行风险抵御能力和资本管理能力提出更高要求,进一步推动了我国商业银行的转型发展。为有效应对新规对商业银行风险... 近年来,由于受内外部环境影响,部分商业银行信用风险相继暴露、资产盈利能力下滑、核心资本持续承压,资本新规的落地对银行风险抵御能力和资本管理能力提出更高要求,进一步推动了我国商业银行的转型发展。为有效应对新规对商业银行风险资产计量、风险自评及监管检查、信息披露等方面的最新监管要求,文章提出商业银行可以通过深入剖析自身资本运行情况,进一步以RWA和RORAC管理为核心优化调整业务结构,建立健全信用风险管理,完善底层数据治理、加快资本系统建设等系列工作实现新旧规定顺利换轨实施,加速推动银行从高速增长向高质量发展转型。 展开更多
关键词 商业银行 资本新规 资本充足率 资本成本 高质量发展 银行转型
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社会保险缴费对企业就业变动的影响
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作者 苑德宇 常家铭 《北京社会科学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2024年第11期60-73,共14页
以中国2007—2022年A股上市公司为样本,分析了社会保险缴费对企业就业变动的影响,结果显示:社会保险缴费的增加会抑制企业劳动力就业增长,企业人均社会保险缴费每增加1%,会导致企业就业增长整体下降约9.35%。这一结果在处理内生性问题... 以中国2007—2022年A股上市公司为样本,分析了社会保险缴费对企业就业变动的影响,结果显示:社会保险缴费的增加会抑制企业劳动力就业增长,企业人均社会保险缴费每增加1%,会导致企业就业增长整体下降约9.35%。这一结果在处理内生性问题、更换衡量指标及估计样本后依然稳健。机制分析结果表明,企业社会保险缴费增加会通过减少企业产出、使用资本替代劳动力、增加技术研发活动等渠道引致劳动力就业增长的下降。异质性分析发现,社会保险缴费对企业就业增长的负向影响在私营企业、中小企业、劳动密集型企业和成本转嫁能力弱企业中表现得更强。对此,应合理减轻企业社会保险缴费负担,适当降低社保法定缴费率以落实“就业优先”政策;应针对民营企业和中小企业进行扶持;应加强企业创新能力,推动企业转型升级。 展开更多
关键词 社会保险缴费 企业就业变动 用工成本 规模效应 资本—劳动比
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金融学视域下的共同富裕:学理基础与实现路径
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作者 于博 《昆明学院学报》 2024年第1期58-66,共9页
通过引入资本收入比和资本收益率与一国资本收入份额之间的关系分析,阐释了资本收入份额不断集中、贫富不断分化背后的金融学学理基础,并在学理分析基础上,对老龄化、金融化等部分经济现象如何影响共同富裕进行了理论推断。这既实现了... 通过引入资本收入比和资本收益率与一国资本收入份额之间的关系分析,阐释了资本收入份额不断集中、贫富不断分化背后的金融学学理基础,并在学理分析基础上,对老龄化、金融化等部分经济现象如何影响共同富裕进行了理论推断。这既实现了解当下经济社会现象与共同富裕之间理论联系的目的,也为相关主题的实证研究提供了基础性理论支撑。在此基础上,研究还系统性阐述了金融结构与贫富分化之间的理论联系,以及金融结构影响财富不均等的四大传导路径,首次以金融结构改革为视角阐述了消除不均等、推进共同富裕的理论基础及具体举措,为后续研究进一步探索如何通过金融结构改革来推动共同富裕既提供了理论框架,又提供了行动路径,上述思考与结论实现了以金融学为视角拓展共同富裕改革路径的研究目标。 展开更多
关键词 资本收入比 贫富差距 金融结构 共同富裕
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城市商业银行在资本新规背景下对小微企业融资的策略研究
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作者 李天航 《中国商论》 2024年第7期105-108,共4页
在《商业银行资本管理办法》(资本新规)的背景下,城市商业银行的前景充满了挑战与机遇。资本新规提高了商业银行的风险抵御能力,使其在复杂市场环境中运营更为稳健,但同时也对其业务运营效率提出了更高要求。为了更好地支持小微企业的... 在《商业银行资本管理办法》(资本新规)的背景下,城市商业银行的前景充满了挑战与机遇。资本新规提高了商业银行的风险抵御能力,使其在复杂市场环境中运营更为稳健,但同时也对其业务运营效率提出了更高要求。为了更好地支持小微企业的融资与发展,城市商业银行必须调整融资策略,如增加对小微企业的信贷投放、优化审批流程以及提供更加灵活的融资方案。本文通过深入分析小微企业的融资现状和需求特点,以及明确城市商业银行所面临的问题和挑战,提出针对性的策略建议,旨在帮助城市商业银行更好地适应资本新规要求、满足小微企业融资需求、推动实体经济发展,为城市商业银行的发展提供指导和借鉴。 展开更多
关键词 资本新规 城市商业银行 中小企业融资 资本充足率 风险管理
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税收激励与企业资本结构——基于“营改增”政策的证据
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作者 谭小芬 王可心 朱梦珂 《东方论坛(青岛大学学报)》 2024年第1期54-72,I0002,共20页
税收激励是影响企业资本结构的关键因素。基于中国A股上市公司数据,分析考察“营改增”政策如何影响企业杠杆率,结果表明:该项政策显著提升了非金融企业的总体杠杆率,相比于交通运输业,政策效应在现代服务业中更为明显。机制分析表明,... 税收激励是影响企业资本结构的关键因素。基于中国A股上市公司数据,分析考察“营改增”政策如何影响企业杠杆率,结果表明:该项政策显著提升了非金融企业的总体杠杆率,相比于交通运输业,政策效应在现代服务业中更为明显。机制分析表明,“营改增”政策通过增加企业经营现金流量促进企业进行资本结构调整、提高杠杆率,符合资本结构权衡理论。异质性分析发现,这一影响效果主要表现在强研发能力、高盈利水平、轻资产和负债不足的企业中,相较于不受“营改增”政策影响的企业,实施“营改增”政策的企业的资本结构调整速度明显加快。研究为税收优化资源配置提供了一定经验证据,也为未来减税政策的优化调整提供了政策思考。 展开更多
关键词 营改增 资本结构 杠杆率 权衡理论
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我国商业银行资本监管探析
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作者 赵倩 《商业观察》 2024年第11期40-44,共5页
有效的银行资本监管对银行业乃至整个经济都具有至关重要的作用。资本监管不仅是银行宏观审慎监管的核心,更能促使商业银行牢固稳健思想,从而控制整个银行业系统的风险。当前我国银行资本监管不断革新,对系统重要性银行、中小型银行都... 有效的银行资本监管对银行业乃至整个经济都具有至关重要的作用。资本监管不仅是银行宏观审慎监管的核心,更能促使商业银行牢固稳健思想,从而控制整个银行业系统的风险。当前我国银行资本监管不断革新,对系统重要性银行、中小型银行都提出了挑战,并且反映出逆周期缓冲资本利用不足、金融风险监管缺乏前瞻性等问题,因而提出优化资本管理方式、加快金融创新、引导差异化发展策略、个别流动性标准、及时修正监管政策等政策建议。 展开更多
关键词 商业银行 资本监管 资本充足率
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金融科技对商业银行系统性风险影响研究
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作者 刘金红 周博文 《长治学院学报》 2024年第2期30-37,共8页
金融科技已经成为金融行业关注的焦点,为银行业的发展带来了新范式,并且正逐渐成为银行业风险管控的重要手段。文章基于静态的CoVaR方法来测算系统性风险,进而探讨金融科技与商业银行系统性风险之间的关系。结果表明:金融科技会抑制商... 金融科技已经成为金融行业关注的焦点,为银行业的发展带来了新范式,并且正逐渐成为银行业风险管控的重要手段。文章基于静态的CoVaR方法来测算系统性风险,进而探讨金融科技与商业银行系统性风险之间的关系。结果表明:金融科技会抑制商业银行的系统性风险;金融科技通过提高资本充足率进而降低商业银行的系统性风险;商业银行的不良贷款率越高,金融科技对系统性风险的抑制作用会越明显。基于此,应推动金融科技与银行业务结合,注重系统性风险防范;优化银行网点分布,提高客户粘性;针对不同类型商业银行,施行差异化风险管控;加强内外联动,建立金融业务网络信息共享平台。 展开更多
关键词 金融科技 系统性风险 资本充足率 资产流动性 不良贷款率
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我国系统重要性银行外源性资本补充现状及建议 被引量:1
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作者 王莹 《西部金融》 2023年第1期34-40,共7页
近年来,随着宏观经济下行压力不断增加,我国系统重要性银行(D-SIBs)净息差持续收紧,利润增速放缓,内源性资本补充受到限制,外源性融资仍是D-SIBs补充资本金的重要方式。2022年我国19家D-SIBs1通过定增、可转债转股、二级资本债、永续债... 近年来,随着宏观经济下行压力不断增加,我国系统重要性银行(D-SIBs)净息差持续收紧,利润增速放缓,内源性资本补充受到限制,外源性融资仍是D-SIBs补充资本金的重要方式。2022年我国19家D-SIBs1通过定增、可转债转股、二级资本债、永续债等方式合计补充资本金超10000亿元。但总体来看,当前仍面临可转债转股率过低、部分D-SIBs需要继续补充核心一级资本、资本补充工具较缺乏的压力,基于此提出意见建议。 展开更多
关键词 系统重要性银行 资本充足率 外源性资本补充
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资产证券化对银行资本充足率和不良贷款率的影响机制
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作者 李辉 陶圆 《金融理论探索》 2023年第3期38-49,共12页
基于2SLS方法和中介效应模型,选取81家中国商业银行2012—2021年微观数据,分析资产证券化对商业银行资本充足率和不良贷款率的影响,并进一步从盈利能力视角和信贷扩张视角分别研究两者的影响机制。研究表明:资产证券化通过提升银行盈利... 基于2SLS方法和中介效应模型,选取81家中国商业银行2012—2021年微观数据,分析资产证券化对商业银行资本充足率和不良贷款率的影响,并进一步从盈利能力视角和信贷扩张视角分别研究两者的影响机制。研究表明:资产证券化通过提升银行盈利能力显著提高其资本充足率,净资产比率越高、不良贷款率越低、贷款占比大、资产规模小的银行,其资产证券化对银行资本充足率有更好的效应;资产证券化刺激了银行信贷扩张却增加了银行不良贷款率,流动性越强、成本收入比越大、资本充足率越低的银行不良贷款的风险越大。银行资产证券化的目的在于提高盈利能力和增强资产流动性,但是利益的驱使和监管不到位会促使银行过度资产证券化,从而增加银行风险。 展开更多
关键词 银行资产证券化 盈利能力 资本充足率 信贷扩张 不良贷款率
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新型灰色马尔科夫模型预测商业银行资本充足率
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作者 舒服华 《西部金融》 2023年第2期29-35,共7页
本文运用灰色FGM(1,1)马尔科夫模型对某银行资本充足率进行了预测,结果显示:模型的平均预测误差为1.1557%,比单一FGM(1,1)模型4.0783%减小了71.6622%,比GM(1,1)模型的4.7628%减小了75.7349%,尤其是近期预测误差减小幅度最为显著,模型202... 本文运用灰色FGM(1,1)马尔科夫模型对某银行资本充足率进行了预测,结果显示:模型的平均预测误差为1.1557%,比单一FGM(1,1)模型4.0783%减小了71.6622%,比GM(1,1)模型的4.7628%减小了75.7349%,尤其是近期预测误差减小幅度最为显著,模型2021年的预测误差仅为0.3168%,比GM(1,1)模型的1.02666%减小了69.1388%。利用FGM(1,1)马尔科夫模型预测得到2022年某银行资本充足率为17.4978%,基本保持稳定,通过分析,说明这一预测结果有一定的可信度。 展开更多
关键词 某银行 资本充足率 预测 FGM(1 1)模型 马尔科夫链
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