Current considerations on intraductal papillary neoplasms of the bile duct and pancreatic duct

Pancreatobiliary intraductal papillary neoplasms(IPNs)represent precursors of pancreatic cancer or bile duct cholangiocarcinoma that can be detected and treated.Despite advances in diagnostic methods,identifying these premalignant lesions is still challenging for treatment providers.Modern imaging,biomarkers and molecular tests for genomic alterations can be used for diagnosis and follow-up.Surgical intervention in combination with new chemotherapeutic agents is considered the optimal treatment for malignant cases.The balance between the risk of malignancy and any risk of resection guides management policy;therefore,treatment should be individualized based on a meticulous preoperative assessment of high-risk stigmata.IPN of the bile duct is more aggressive;thus,early diagnosis and surgery are crucial.The conservative management of low-risk pancreatic branch-duct lesions is safe and effective.

Identification of breath volatile organic compounds to distinguish pancreatic adenocarcinoma,pancreatic cystic neoplasm,and patients without pancreatic lesions

BACKGROUND Volatile organic compounds(VOCs)are a promising potential biomarker that may be able to identify the presence of cancers.AIM To identify exhaled breath VOCs that distinguish pancreatic ductal adenocar-cinoma(PDAC)from intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasm(IPMN)and healthy volunteers.METHODS We collected exhaled breath from histologically proven PDAC patients,radiological diagnosis IPMN,and healthy volunteers using the ReCIVA®device between 10/2021-11/2022.VOCs were identified by thermal desorption-gas chromatography/field-asymmetric ion mobility spectrometry and compared between groups.RESULTS A total of 156 participants(44%male,mean age 62.6±10.6)were enrolled(54 PDAC,42 IPMN,and 60 controls).Among the nine VOCs identified,two VOCs that showed differences between groups were dimethyl sulfide[0.73 vs 0.74 vs 0.94 arbitrary units(AU),respectively;P=0.008]and acetone dimers(3.95 vs 4.49 vs 5.19 AU,respectively;P<0.001).After adjusting for the imbalance parameters,PDAC showed higher dimethyl sulfide levels than the control and IPMN groups,with adjusted odds ratio(aOR)of 6.98(95%CI:1.15-42.17)and 4.56(1.03-20.20),respectively(P<0.05 both).Acetone dimer levels were also higher in PDAC compared to controls and IPMN(aOR:5.12(1.80-14.57)and aOR:3.35(1.47-7.63),respectively(P<0.05 both).Acetone dimer,but not dimethyl sulfide,performed better than CA19-9 in PDAC diagnosis(AUROC 0.910 vs 0.796).The AUROC of acetone dimer increased to 0.936 when combined with CA19-9,which was better than CA19-9 alone(P<0.05).CONCLUSION Dimethyl sulfide and acetone dimer are VOCs that potentially distinguish PDAC from IPMN and healthy participants.Additional prospective studies are required to validate these findings.

Comparison between solid pseudopapillary neoplasms of the pancreas and pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma with cystic changes using computed tomography

BACKGROUND Solid pseudopapillary neoplasms of the pancreas(SPN)share similar imaging findings with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma with cystic changes(PDAC with cystic changes),which may result in unnecessary surgery.AIM To investigate the value of computed tomography(CT)in differentiation of SPN from PDAC with cystic changes.METHODS This study retrospectively analyzed the clinical and imaging findings of 32 patients diagnosed with SPN and 14 patients diagnosed with PDAC exhibiting cystic changes,confirmed through pathological diagnosis.Quantitative and qualitative analysis was performed,including assessment of age,sex,tumor size,shape,margin,density,enhancement pattern,CT values of tumors,CT contrast enhancement ratios,“floating cloud sign,”calcification,main pancreatic duct dilatation,pancreatic atrophy,and peripancreatic invasion or distal metastasis.Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify relevant features to differentiate between SPN and PDAC with cystic changes,and receiver operating characteristic curves were obtained to evaluate the diagnostic performance of each variable and their combination.RESULTS When compared to PDAC with cystic changes,SPN had a lower age(32 years vs 64 years,P<0.05)and a slightly larger size(5.41 cm vs 3.90 cm,P<0.05).SPN had a higher frequency of“floating cloud sign”and peripancreatic invasion or distal metastasis than PDAC with cystic changes(both P<0.05).No significant difference was found with respect to sex,tumor location,shape,margin,density,main pancreatic duct dilatation,calcification,pancreatic atrophy,enhancement pattern,CT values of tumors,or CT contrast enhancement ratios between the two groups(all P>0.05).The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the combination was 0.833(95%confidence interval:0.708-0.957)with 78.6%sensitivity,81.3%specificity,and 80.4%accuracy in differentiation of SPN from PDAC with cystic changes.CONCLUSION A larger tumor size,“floating cloud sign,”and peripancreatic invasion or distal metastasis are useful CT imaging features that are more common in SPN and may help discriminate SPN from PDAC with cystic changes.

Pancreatic cystic neoplasms:a comprehensive approach to diagnosis and management

Pancreatic cystic neoplasms present a complex diagnostic scenario encompassing low-and high-grade malignancies.Their prevalence varies widely,notably increasing with age,reaching 75%in individuals older than 80 years.Accurate diagnosis is crucial,as errors occur in approximately one-third of resected cysts discovered incidentally.Various imaging modalities such as computed tomography,magnetic resonance imaging,and endoscopic techniques are available to address this challenge.However,risk stratification remains problematic,with guideline inconsistencies and diagnostic accuracy varying according to cyst type.This review proposed a stepwisemanagement approach,considering patient factors,imaging results,and specific features.This patient-centered model offers a structured framework for optimizing the care of individuals with pancreatic cystic neoplasms.

High-grade pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia diagnosed based on changes in magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography findings:A case report

BACKGROUND High-grade pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia(PanIN)exhibits no mass and is not detected by any examination modalities.However,it can be diagnosed by pancreatic juice cytology from indirect findings.Most previous cases were diagnosed based on findings of a focal stricture of the main pancreatic duct(MPD)and caudal MPD dilatation and subsequent pancreatic juice cytology using endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography(ERCP).We experienced a case of high-grade PanIN with an unclear MPD over a 20-mm range,but without caudal MPD dilatation on magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography(MRCP).CASE SUMMARY A 60-year-old female patient underwent computed tomography for a follow-up of uterine cancer post-excision,which revealed pancreatic cysts.MRCP revealed an unclear MPD of the pancreatic body at a 20-mm length without caudal MPD dilatation.Thus,course observation was performed.After 24 mo,MRCP revealed an increased caudal MPD caliber and a larger pancreatic cyst.We performed ERCP and detected atypical cells suspected of adenocarcinoma by serial pancreatic juice aspiration cytology examination.We performed a distal pancreatectomy and obtained a histopathological diagnosis of high-grade PanIN.Pancreatic parenchyma invasion was not observed,and curative resection was achieved.CONCLUSION High-grade Pan-IN may cause MPD narrowing in a long range without caudal MPD dilatation.

Early diagnosis of pancreatic cancer: Shedding light on an unresolved challenge

Diagnosing early-stage pancreatic cancer(PC)remains a clinical challenge.Hence,studying novel imaging aspects that could enhance the diagnostic accuracy of malignant pancreatic precursor lesions is imperative.This article aims to un-derscore the promising role of emerging imaging aspects that may facilitate the earlier diagnosis of PC,thereby improving its management and prognosis.

Malignancy risk factors and prognostic variables of pancreatic mucinous cystic neoplasms in Chinese patients

BACKGROUND Pancreatic mucinous cystic neoplasms(MCNs)represent one of the precursor lesions of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma,and their detection has been facilitated by advances in preoperative imaging.Due primarily to the rarity of MCNs,however,there is limited knowledge regarding the prognostic variables and high-risk factors for malignant transformation.A more comprehensive and nuanced approach is necessary to fill this gap and provide a basis for improved treatment decisions and patient outcomes.AIM To investigate the high-risk factors associated with malignant MCNs and to explore the prognostic factors of MCN with associated invasive carcinoma(MCNAIC).METHODS All cases of resected MCNs from a single high-volume institution between January 2012 and January 2022 were retrospectively reviewed.Only cases with ovarian-type stroma verified by progesterone receptor staining were included.Preoperative features,histological findings and postoperative course were documented.Multivariate logistic regression was employed to investigate variables related to malignancy.Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier curve,and the prognostic factors were assessed to evaluate the postoperative course of patients with MCN-AIC.RESULTS Among the 48 patients,36 had benign MCNs,and 12 had malignant MCNs(1 high-grade atypical hyperplasia and 11 MCN-AIC).Age,tumour size,presence of solid components or mural nodules and pancreatic duct dilatation were identified as independent risk factors associated with malignancy.The follow-up period ranged from 12 mo to 120 mo,with a median overall survival of 58.2 mo.Only three patients with MCN-AIC died,and the 5-year survival rate was 70.1%.All 11 cases of MCN-AIC were stage I,and extracapsular invasion was identified as a prognostic factor for poorer outcomes.CONCLUSION The risk factors independently associated with malignant transformation of MCNs included age,tumour size,presence of solid components or mural nodules,and pancreatic duct dilatation.Our study also revealed that encapsulated invasion was a favourable prognostic factor in MCN-AIC patients.

Surgical management of pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms

Pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms are a rare and complex group of neoplastic lesions that develop from pancreatic islet cells.Their incidence has dramatically increased during the last two decades.Due to its complex nature and pathophysiological behaviour,surgical management continues to evolve.Surgery remains the cornerstone of treatment for most non-functional and functional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours,while lymphadenectomy remains a controversial subject.Different techniques,such as pancreas-preserving and minimally invasive approaches,continue to evolve and offer the same overall outcomes as open surgery.This comprehensive review describes in detail the current and most up-todate classification and staging of pancreatic neuroendocrine tumours,explores the rationale for nonsurgical and surgical management,and focuses on surgical treatment and more specifically,on minimally invasive approaches.

Percutaneous transhepatic intraportal biopsy using gastroscope biopsy forceps for diagnosis of a pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasm:A case report

BACKGROUND Pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms(PNENs)are a rare group of neoplasms originating from the islets of the Langerhans.Portal vein tumor thrombosis has been reported in 33%of patients with PNENs.While the histopathological diagnosis of PNENs is usually based on percutaneous biopsy or endoscopic ultrasound-guided fine-needle aspiration(EUS-FNA),these approaches may be impeded by gastric varices,poor access windows,or anatomically contiguous critical structures.Obtaining a pathological diagnosis using a gastroscope biopsy forceps via percutaneous transhepatic intravascular pathway is an innovative method that has rarely been reported.CASE SUMMARY A 72-year-old man was referred to our hospital for abdominal pain and melena.Abdominal contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging revealed a wellenhanced tumor(size:2.4 cm×1.2 cm×1.2 cm)in the pancreatic tail with portal vein invasion.Traditional pathological diagnosis via EUS-FNA was not possible because of diffuse gastric varices.We performed a percutaneous transportal biopsy of the portal vein tumor thrombus using a gastroscope biopsy forceps.Histopathologic examination revealed a pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasm(G2)with somatostatin receptors 2(+),allowing systemic treatment.CONCLUSION Intravascular biopsy using gastroscope biopsy forceps appears to be a safe and effective method for obtaining a histopathological diagnosis.Although welldesigned clinic trials are required to obtain more definitive evidence,this procedure may help improve the diagnosis of portal vein thrombosis and related diseases.

Current perspectives on pancreatic serous cystic neoplasms:Diagnosis, management and beyond

Pancreatic cystic neoplasms have been increasingly recognized recently. Comprising about 16% of all resected pancreatic cystic neoplasms, serous cystic neoplasms are uncommon benign lesions that are usually asymptomatic and found incidentally. Despite overall low risk of malignancy, these pancreatic cysts still generate anxiety, leading to intensive medical investigations with considerable financial cost to health care systems. This review discusses the general background of serous cystic neoplasms, including epidemiology and clinical characteristics, and provides an updated overview of diagnostic approaches based on clinical features, relevant imaging studies and new findings that are being discovered pertaining to diagnostic evaluation. We also concisely discuss and propose management strategies for better quality of life.

Difficulty with diagnosis of malignant pancreatic neoplasms coexisting with chronic pancreatitis

Chronic pancreatitis is a relatively common disease. We encountered two different cases of belatedly demonstrated pancreatic carcinoma featuring underlying chronic pancreatitis. The first case was one that was highly suspected as that of a malignancy based upon imaging study, but unfortunately, it could not be confirmed by intra-operative cytology at that time. Following this, the surgeon elected to perform only conservative bypass surgery for obstructive biliary complication. Peritoneal carcinomatosis was later noted and the patient finally died. The second case, a malignant mucinous neoplasm,was falsely diagnosed as a pseudocyst, based upon the lesion's sonographic appearance and associated elevated serum amylase levels. After suffering repeated hemoptysis,the patient was found to exhibit lung metastasis and peritoneal seeding. We reviewed some of the literature,including those studies discussing chronic pancreatitis predisposing to a malignant change. These two case analyses illustrate clearly that the diagnosis for such conditions, which is simply based upon imagery or pathological considerations may end up being one of a mistaken malignancy. Some of our suggestions for the treatment of such malignancies as revealed herein include,total pancreatomy for univocal mass lesion, and needle aspiration of lesion-contained tissue for amylase, CA199and CEA levels for a suspicious cystic pancreatic mass.

Pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms:Current diagnosis and management

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms(IPMNs)represent approximately 1%of all pancreatic neoplasms and 25%of cystic neoplasms.They are divided into three types:main duct-IPMN(MD-IPPMN),branch duct-IPMN(BD-IPMN),and mixed type-IPMN.In this review,diagnostics,including clinical presentation and radiological investigations,were described.Magnetic resonance imaging is the most useful for most IPMNs.Management depends on the type and radiological features of IPMNs.Surgery is recommended for MD-IPMN.For BD-IPMN,management involves surgery or surveillance depending on the tumor size,cyst growth rate,solid components,main duct dilatation,high-grade dysplasia in cytology,the presence of symptoms(jaundice,new-onset diabetes,pancreatitis),and CA 19.9 serum level.The patient’s age and comorbidities should also be taken into consideration.Currently,there are different guidelines regarding the diagnosis and management of IPMNs.In this review,the following guidelines were presented:Sendai International Association of Pancreatology guidelines(2006),American Gastroenterological Association guidelines,revised international consensus Fukuoka guidelines(2012),revised international consensus Fukuoka guidelines(2017),and European evidence-based guidelines according to the European Study Group on Cystic Tumours of the Pancreas(2018).The Verona Evidence-Based Meeting 2020 was also presented and discussed.

Multiphase computed tomography radiomics of pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms to predict malignancy

BACKGROUND Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms(IPMNs)are non-invasive pancreatic precursor lesions that can potentially develop into invasive pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma.Currently,the International Consensus Guidelines(ICG)for IPMNs provides the basis for evaluating suspected IPMNs on computed tomography(CT)imaging.Despite using the ICG,it remains challenging to accurately predict whether IPMNs harbor high grade or invasive disease which would warrant surgical resection.A supplementary quantitative radiological tool,radiomics,may improve diagnostic accuracy of radiological evaluation of IPMNs.We hypothesized that using CT whole lesion radiomics features in conjunction with the ICG could improve the diagnostic accuracy of predicting IPMN histology.AIM To evaluate whole lesion CT radiomic analysis of IPMNs for predicting malignant histology compared to International Consensus Guidelines.METHODS Fifty-one subjects who had pancreatic surgical resection at our institution with histology demonstrating IPMN and available preoperative CT imaging were included in this retrospective cohort.Whole lesion semi-automated segmentation was performed on each preoperative CT using Healthmyne software(Healthmyne,Madison,WI).Thirty-nine relevant radiomic features were extracted from each lesion on each available contrast phase.Univariate analysis of the 39 radiomics features was performed for each contrast phase and values were compared between malignant and benign IPMN groups using logistic regression.Conventional quantitative and qualitative CT measurements were also compared between groups,viaχ2(categorical)and Mann Whitney U(continuous)variables.RESULTS Twenty-nine subjects(15 males,age 71±9 years)with high grade or invasive tumor histology comprised the"malignant"cohort,while 22 subjects(11 males,age 70±7 years)with low grade tumor histology were included in the"benign"cohort.Radiomic analysis showed 18/39 precontrast,19/39 arterial phase,and 21/39 venous phase features differentiated malignant from benign IPMNs(P<0.05).Multivariate analysis including only ICG criteria yielded two significant variables:thickened and enhancing cyst wall and enhancing mural nodule<5 mm with an AUC(95%CI)of 0.817(0.709-0.926).Multivariable post contrast radiomics achieved an AUC(95%CI)of 0.87(0.767-0.974)for a model including arterial phase radiomics features and 0.834(0.716-0.953)for a model including venous phase radiomics features.Combined multivariable model including conventional variables and arterial phase radiomics features achieved an AUC(95%CI)of 0.93(0.85-1.0)with a 5-fold cross validation AUC of 0.90.CONCLUSION Multi-phase CT radiomics evaluation could play a role in improving predictive capability in diagnosing malignancy in IPMNs.Future larger studies may help determine the clinical significance of our findings.

Differentiating intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms from other pancreatic cystic lesions

Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms(IPMN) can be difficult to distinguish from other cystic lesions of the pancreas.To understand better and discuss the current knowledge on this topic,the literature and the institutional experience at a large pancreatic disease center have been reviewed.A combination of preoperative demographic,historical,radiographic,laboratory data,as well as postoperative pathologic analyses can often distinguish IPMN from other lesions in the differential diagnosis.

Endoscopic ultrasound in the diagnosis of pancreatic intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms

Pancreatic cystic lesions are increasingly recognised due to the widespread use of different imaging modalities.Intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms(IPMNs)of the pancreas represent a common,but also heterogeneous group of cystic tumors with a significant malignant potential.These neoplasms must be differentiated from other cystic tumors and properly classified into their different types,main-duct IPMNs vs branchduct IPMNs.These types have a different malignant potential and therefore,different treatment strategies need to be implemented.Endoscopic ultrasound(EUS)offers the highest resolution of the pancreas and can aid in the differential diagnosis,classification and differentiation between benign and malignant tumors.The addition of EUS fine-needle aspiration can supply further information by obtaining fluid for cytology,measurement of tumor markers and perhaps DNA analysis.Novel techniques,such as the use of contrast and sophisticated equipment,like intraductal probes can provide information regarding malignant features and extent of these neoplasms.Thus,EUS is a valuable tool in the diagnosis and appropriate management of these tumors.

A new combined criterion to better predict malignant lesions in patients with pancreatic cystic neoplasms

Objective:Cystic lesions of the pancreas have been increasingly recognized.Some lesions exhibit benign behavior,while others have unequivocal malignant potential.Thus,accurate identification of malignancy in patients diagnosed with pancreatic cystic neoplasms(PCNs)remains a major challenge.The aim of this study was to define a combined criterion to better predict malignant lesions in patients with PCNs.Methods:We retrospectively analyzed 165 patients who underwent resection of PCNs from October 2011 to May 2017.The relationship among malignancy and serum carbohydrate antigen 19-9(CA19-9),preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio(NLR),and the presence of enhanced solid component on imaging was analyzed.Results:NLR before surgery in patients with malignant PCNs(2.81±2.14)was significantly higher than that in patients diagnosed with pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor(1.90±0.69,P=0.013)or healthy volunteers(1.40±0.48;P<0.001).Serum CA19-9≥39U/m L,NLR>1.976 and presence of enhanced solid component were independent predictors of PCN malignancy.A combined criterion meeting any two or more of the three elements including CA19-9≥39 U/m L,NLR>1.976,and presence of enhanced solid component on computed tomography imaging is an indicator with a high positive predictive value of 80.5%and a high negative predictive value of 87.9%,and thus,represents a highly accurate test(86.1%).Conclusions:The new combined criterion is an effective predictor of tumor malignancy in patients with PCNs.

Correlation between radiologic features on contrastenhanced CT and pathological tumor grades in pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms

Contrast-enhanced computed tomography(CT)contributes to the increasing detection of pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms(PNENs).Nevertheless,its value for differentiating pathological tumor grades is not well recognized.In this report,we have conducted a retrospective study on the relationship between the 2017 World Health Organization(WHO)classification and CT imaging features in 94 patients.Most of the investigated features eventually provided statistically significant indicators for discerning PNENs G3 from PNENs G1/G2,including tumor size,shape,margin,heterogeneity,intratumoral blood vessels,vascular invasion,enhancement pattern in both contrast phases,enhancement degree in both phases,tumor-to-pancreas contrast ratio in both phases,common bile duct dilatation,lymph node metastases,and liver metastases.Ill-defined tumor margin was an independent predictor for PNENs G3 with the highest area under the curve(AUC)of 0.906 in the multivariable logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis.The portal enhancement ratio(PER)was shown the highest AUC of 0.855 in terms of quantitative features.Our data suggest that the traditional contrastenhanced CT still plays a vital role in differentiation of tumor grades and heterogeneity analysis prior to treatment.

Advances in medical treatment for pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms

Pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms(PanNENs)are rare neoplasms with strong heterogeneity that have experienced an increasing incidence rate in recent years.For patients with locally advanced or distant metastatic PanNENs,systemic treatment options vary due to the different differentiations,grades and stages.The available options for systemic therapy include somatostatin analogs,molecularly targeted agents,cytotoxic chemotherapeutic agents,immune checkpoint inhibitors,and peptide receptor radionuclide therapy.In addition,the development of novel molecularly targeted agents is currently in progress.The sequence of selection between different chemotherapy regimens has been of great interest,and resistance to chemotherapeutic agents is the major limitation in their clinical application.Novel agents and high-level clinical evidence continue to emerge in the field of antiangiogenic agents.Peptide receptor radionuclide therapy is increasingly employed for the treatment of advanced neuroendocrine tumors,and greater therapeutic efficacy may be achieved by emerging radiolabeled peptides.Since immune checkpoint inhibitor monotherapies for PanNENs appear to have limited antitumor activity,dual immune checkpoint inhibitor therapies or combinations of antiangiogenic therapies and immune checkpoint inhibitors have been applied in the clinic to improve clinical efficacy.Combining the use of a variety of agents with different mechanisms of action provides new possibilities for clinical treatments.In the future,the study of systemic therapies will continue to focus on the screening of the optimal benefit population and the selection of the best treatment sequence strategy with the aim of truly achieving individualized precise treatment of PanNENs.

Preoperative ultrasound combined with routine blood tests in predicting the malignant risk of pancreatic cystic neoplasms

Objective:Accurate preoperative identification of benign or malignant pancreatic cystic neoplasms(PCN)may help clinicians make better intervention choices and will be essential for individualized treatment.Methods:Preoperative ultrasound and laboratory examination findings,and demographic characteristics were collected from patients.Multiple logistic regression was used to identify independent risk factors associated with malignant PCN,which were then included in the nomogram and validated with an external cohort.The Net Reclassification Index(NRI)and Integrated Discrimination Improvement(IDI)were calculated to evaluate the improvement in the predictive power of the new model with respect to that of a combined imaging and tumor marker prediction model.Results:Malignant PCN were found in 83(40.7%)and 33(38.7%)of the model and validation cohorts,respectively.Multivariate analysis identified age,tumor location,imaging of tumor boundary,blood type,mean hemoglobin concentration,neutrophil-tolymphocyte ratio,carbohydrate antigen 19-9,and carcinoembryonic antigen as independent risk factors for malignant PCN.The calibration curve indicated that the predictions based on the nomogram were in excellent agreement with the actual observations.A nomogram score cutoff of 192.5 classified patients as having low vs.high risk of malignant PCN.The model achieved good C-statistics of 0.929(95%CI 0.890–0.968,P<0.05)and 0.951(95%CI 0.903–0.998,P<0.05)in predicting malignancy in the development and validation cohorts,respectively.NRI=0.268;IDI=0.271(P<0.001 for improvement).The DCA curve indicated that our model yielded greater clinical benefits than the comparator model.Conclusions:The nomogram showed excellent performance in predicting malignant PCN and may help surgeons select patients for detailed examination and surgery.The nomogram is freely available at https://wangjunjinnomogram.shinyapps.io/DynNomapp/.

Online calculator for predicting the risk of malignancy in patients with pancreatic cystic neoplasms: A multicenter, retrospective study

BACKGROUND Efficient and practical methods for predicting the risk of malignancy in patients with pancreatic cystic neoplasms(PCNs)are lacking.AIM To establish a nomogram-based online calculator for predicting the risk of malignancy in patients with PCNs.METHODS In this study,the clinicopathological data of target patients in three medical centers were analyzed.The independent sample t-test,Mann–Whitney U test or chi-squared test were used as appropriate for statistical analysis.After univariable and multivariable logistic regression analysis,five independent factors were screened and incorporated to develop a calculator for predicting the risk of malignancy.Finally,the concordance index(C-index),calibration,area under the curve,decision curve analysis and clinical impact curves were used to evaluate the performance of the calculator.RESULTS Enhanced mural nodules[odds ratio(OR):4.314;95%confidence interval(CI):1.618–11.503,P=0.003],tumor diameter≥40 mm(OR:3.514;95%CI:1.138–10.849,P=0.029),main pancreatic duct dilatation(OR:3.267;95%CI:1.230–8.678,P=0.018),preoperative neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio≥2.288(OR:2.702;95%CI:1.008–7.244,P=0.048],and preoperative serum CA19-9 concentration≥34 U/mL(OR:3.267;95%CI:1.274–13.007,P=0.018)were independent risk factors for a high risk of malignancy in patients with PCNs.In the training cohort,the nomogram achieved a C-index of 0.824 for predicting the risk of malignancy.The predictive ability of the model was then validated in an external cohort(C-index:0.893).Compared with the risk factors identified in the relevant guidelines,the current model showed better predictive performance and clinical utility.CONCLUSION The calculator demonstrates optimal predictive performance for identifying the risk of malignancy,potentially yielding a personalized method for patient selection and decision-making in clinical practice.