Currently,more than ten ultrahigh arch dams have been constructed or are being constructed in China.Safety control is essential to long-term operation of these dams.This study employed the flexibility coefficient and ...Currently,more than ten ultrahigh arch dams have been constructed or are being constructed in China.Safety control is essential to long-term operation of these dams.This study employed the flexibility coefficient and plastic complementary energy norm to assess the structural safety of arch dams.A comprehensive analysis was conducted,focusing on differences among conventional methods in characterizing the structural behavior of the Xiaowan arch dam in China.Subsequently,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the measured performance of the Xiaowan dam were explored,including periodicity,convergence,and time-effect characteristics.These findings revealed the governing mechanism of main factors.Furthermore,a heterogeneous spatial panel vector model was developed,considering both common factors and specific factors affecting the safety and performance of arch dams.This model aims to comprehensively illustrate spatial heterogeneity between the entire structure and local regions,introducing a specific effect quantity to characterize local deformation differences.Ultimately,the proposed model was applied to the Xiaowan arch dam,accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of dam performance.Additionally,the spatiotemporal distri-bution characteristics of environmental load effects on different parts of the dam were reasonably interpreted.Validation of the model prediction enhances its credibility,leading to the formulation of health diagnosis criteria for future long-term operation of the Xiaowan dam.The findings not only enhance the predictive ability and timely control of ultrahigh arch dams'performance but also provide a crucial basis for assessing the effectiveness of engineering treatment measures.展开更多
The advantages of a flat-panel X-ray source(FPXS)make it a promising candidate for imaging applications.Accurate imaging-system modeling and projection simulation are critical for analyzing imaging performance and res...The advantages of a flat-panel X-ray source(FPXS)make it a promising candidate for imaging applications.Accurate imaging-system modeling and projection simulation are critical for analyzing imaging performance and resolving overlapping projection issues in FPXS.The conventional analytical ray-tracing approach is limited by the number of patterns and is not applicable to FPXS-projection calculations.However,the computation time of Monte Carlo(MC)simulation is independent of the size of the patterned arrays in FPXS.This study proposes two high-efficiency MC projection simulators for FPXS:a graphics processing unit(GPU)-based phase-space sampling MC(gPSMC)simulator and GPU-based fluence sampling MC(gFSMC)simulator.The two simulators comprise three components:imaging-system modeling,photon initialization,and physical-interaction simulations in the phantom.Imaging-system modeling was performed by modeling the FPXS,imaging geometry,and detector.The gPSMC simulator samples the initial photons from the phase space,whereas the gFSMC simulator performs photon initialization from the calculated energy spectrum and fluence map.The entire process of photon interaction with the geometry and arrival at the detector was simulated in parallel using multiple GPU kernels,and projections based on the two simulators were calculated.The accuracies of the two simulators were evaluated by comparing them with the conventional analytical ray-tracing approach and acquired projections,and the efficiencies were evaluated by comparing the computation time.The results of simulated and realistic experiments illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed gPSMC and gFSMC simulators in the projection calculation of various phantoms.展开更多
安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事...安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。展开更多
The finite-depth concrete panels have been widely applied in the protective structures,and its impact resistance and dynamic fracture failures,especially the scabbing/perforation limits,under high velocity projectile ...The finite-depth concrete panels have been widely applied in the protective structures,and its impact resistance and dynamic fracture failures,especially the scabbing/perforation limits,under high velocity projectile impact,are mainly concerned by protective engineers,which are numerically studied based on an improved dynamic concrete model in this study.Firstly,based on the framework of the KCC(Karagozian&Case concrete)model,a dynamic concrete model is proposed which considers an independent tensile damage model and a continued transition between dynamic tensile and compressive properties.Secondly,the strength surface,equation of state and damage parameters of the proposed model are comprehensively calibrated by a triaxial compressive test with high confinement pressure,the rationality of which is further verified based on the single element tests,e.g.,uniaxial and triaxial compression as well as uniaxial,biaxial and triaxial tension.Thirdly,a series of projectile high velocity impact tests on thin and thick concrete panels are simulated,which indicates that the projectile residual velocity and dynamic fracture failures are reproduced satisfactorily,while the KCC model underestimates both the spalling and scabbing dimensions severely.Finally,based on the validated concrete model and finite element analyses approach,the validations of the existing five empirical formulae are evaluated,in terms of the depth of penetration(DOP)and scabbing/perforation limits of concrete panel.Both the Army corps of engineers(ACE)and modified National Defense Research Committee(NDRC)formulae are recommended in the design of the protective structure to avoid scabbing failure.展开更多
Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Ar...Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).展开更多
Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,...Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.展开更多
On the basis of using entropy weight method to measure China’s education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization evaluation indicators, using the panel data of 30 provinces in China (excluding Xizang, Hong Kong,...On the basis of using entropy weight method to measure China’s education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization evaluation indicators, using the panel data of 30 provinces in China (excluding Xizang, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2012 to 2021, a spatial panel simultaneous equation model is constructed based on adjacency matrix, geographical distance matrix and economic geographical distance matrix deeply study the interaction mechanism and spatial spillover effects between education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization through the generalized spatial three-stage least squares method (GS3SLS). The results indicate that there is a significant spatial spillover effect and a positive spatial correlation between education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization, and there is a significant interactive effect between the two variables, while promoting each other positively. Therefore, the government should clarify the deep relationship between education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization based on the current background, and better consolidate and expand the effective connection between the achievements of education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization.展开更多
Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation ...Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation of FU away from the well into the whole reservoir grid is commonly a difficult task and using the seismic data as constraints is rarely a subject of study.This paper proposes a workflow to generate numerous possible 3D volumes of flow units,porosity and permeability below the seismic resolution limit,respecting the available seismic data at larger scales.The methodology is used in the Mero Field,a Brazilian presalt carbonate reservoir located in the Santos Basin,who presents a complex and heterogenic geological setting with different sedimentological processes and diagenetic history.We generated metric flow units using the conventional core analysis and transposed to the well log data.Then,given a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,the seismic data and the well log statistics,we simulated acoustic impedance,decametric flow units(DFU),metric flow units(MFU),porosity and permeability volumes in the metric scale.The aim is to estimate a minimum amount of MFU able to calculate realistic scenarios porosity and permeability scenarios,without losing the seismic lateral control.In other words,every porosity and permeability volume simulated produces a synthetic seismic that match the real seismic of the area,even in the metric scale.The achieved 3D results represent a high-resolution fluid flow reservoir modelling considering the lateral control of the seismic during the process and can be directly incorporated in the dynamic characterization workflow.展开更多
Non-responses leading to missing data are common in most studies and causes inefficient and biased statistical inferences if ignored. When faced with missing data, many studies choose to employ complete case analysis ...Non-responses leading to missing data are common in most studies and causes inefficient and biased statistical inferences if ignored. When faced with missing data, many studies choose to employ complete case analysis approach to estimate the parameters of the model. This however compromises on the susceptibility of the estimates to reduced bias and minimum variance as expected. Several classical and model based techniques of imputing the missing values have been mentioned in literature. Bayesian approach to missingness is deemed superior amongst the other techniques through its natural self-lending to missing data settings where the missing values are treated as unobserved random variables that have a distribution which depends on the observed data. This paper digs up the superiority of Bayesian imputation to Multiple Imputation with Chained Equations (MICE) when estimating logistic panel data models with single fixed effects. The study validates the superiority of conditional maximum likelihood estimates for nonlinear binary choice logit panel model in the presence of missing observations. A Monte Carlo simulation was designed to determine the magnitude of bias and root mean square errors (RMSE) arising from MICE and Full Bayesian imputation. The simulation results show that the conditional maximum likelihood (ML) logit estimator presented in this paper is less biased and more efficient when Bayesian imputation is performed to curb non-responses.展开更多
Green technology innovation is an important driving force and source to promote my country’s high-quality development,and it is the core path to achieve sustainable development.This paper uses my country’s provincia...Green technology innovation is an important driving force and source to promote my country’s high-quality development,and it is the core path to achieve sustainable development.This paper uses my country’s provincial panel data from 2016 to 2019 to study the impact mechanism of R&D investment on green technology innovation,and introduces the level of digitization,using the panel threshold model to discuss its role in the impact mechanism of R&D investment on green technology innovation.The study found that when the level of digitalization in a region is low,increasing R&D investment does not necessarily improve the ability of green technology innovation;when the level of digitalization is relatively high,R&D investment has a positive role in promoting green technology innovation.Therefore,it is necessary to improve policies to encourage enterprises to increase investment in research and development;at the same time,it is necessary to promote the coordinated development of digital foundation,digital investment,digital literacy,digital economy and digital application,and promote the deep integration of digitalization and green technology innovation.展开更多
Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currentl...Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.展开更多
Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnectio...Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under various solar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025.Magnetosheath conditions,namely,plasma density,velocity,and temperature,are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions.We developed a userfriendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density,velocity,temperature,and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models.Using this parameterized magnetosheath model,scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models.First,we created an MHD-based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities(1,5,10,15,20,25,and 30 cm)and 2 interplanetary magnetic field Bz components(±4 nT),and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions.We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77,especially for plasma density and plasma velocity.Second,we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models(gas-dynamic,analytic),and did two case studies to test the performance.The MHD-based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self-consistency among the magnetosheath parameters.Third,we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point,which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions.A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.展开更多
BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still...BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.展开更多
Neurodegenerative diseases(NDs)are a group of debilitating neurological disorders that primarily affect elderly populations and include Alzheimer's disease(AD),Parkinson's disease(PD),Huntington's disease(...Neurodegenerative diseases(NDs)are a group of debilitating neurological disorders that primarily affect elderly populations and include Alzheimer's disease(AD),Parkinson's disease(PD),Huntington's disease(HD),and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis(ALS).Currently,there are no therapies available that can delay,stop,or reverse the pathological progression of NDs in clinical settings.As the population ages,NDs are imposing a huge burden on public health systems and affected families.Animal models are important tools for preclinical investigations to understand disease pathogenesis and test potential treatments.While numerous rodent models of NDs have been developed to enhance our understanding of disease mechanisms,the limited success of translating findings from animal models to clinical practice suggests that there is still a need to bridge this translation gap.Old World nonhuman primates(NHPs),such as rhesus,cynomolgus,and vervet monkeys,are phylogenetically,physiologically,biochemically,and behaviorally most relevant to humans.This is particularly evident in the similarity of the structure and function of their central nervous systems,rendering such species uniquely valuable for neuroscience research.Recently,the development of several genetically modified NHP models of NDs has successfully recapitulated key pathologies and revealed novel mechanisms.This review focuses on the efficacy of NHPs in modeling NDs and the novel pathological insights gained,as well as the challenges associated with the generation of such models and the complexities involved in their subsequent analysis.展开更多
Parkinson’s disease is chara cterized by the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars com pacta,and although restoring striatal dopamine levels may improve symptoms,no treatment can cure or reve rse ...Parkinson’s disease is chara cterized by the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars com pacta,and although restoring striatal dopamine levels may improve symptoms,no treatment can cure or reve rse the disease itself.Stem cell therapy has a regenerative effect and is being actively studied as a candidate for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease.Mesenchymal stem cells are considered a promising option due to fewer ethical concerns,a lower risk of immune rejection,and a lower risk of teratogenicity.We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the therapeutic effects of mesenchymal stem cells and their derivatives on motor function,memory,and preservation of dopamine rgic neurons in a Parkinson’s disease animal model.We searched bibliographic databases(PubMed/MEDLINE,Embase,CENTRAL,Scopus,and Web of Science)to identify articles and included only pee r-reviewed in vivo interve ntional animal studies published in any language through J une 28,2023.The study utilized the random-effect model to estimate the 95%confidence intervals(CI)of the standard mean differences(SMD)between the treatment and control groups.We use the systematic review center for laboratory animal expe rimentation’s risk of bias tool and the collaborative approach to meta-analysis and review of animal studies checklist for study quality assessment.A total of 33studies with data from 840 Parkinson’s disease model animals were included in the meta-analysis.Treatment with mesenchymal stem cells significantly improved motor function as assessed by the amphetamine-induced rotational test.Among the stem cell types,the bone marrow MSCs with neurotrophic factor group showed la rgest effect size(SMD[95%CI]=-6.21[-9.50 to-2.93],P=0.0001,I^(2)=0.0%).The stem cell treatment group had significantly more tyrosine hydroxylase positive dopamine rgic neurons in the striatum([95%CI]=1.04[0.59 to 1.49],P=0.0001,I^(2)=65.1%)and substantia nigra(SMD[95%CI]=1.38[0.89 to 1.87],P=0.0001,I^(2)=75.3%),indicating a protective effect on dopaminergic neurons.Subgroup analysis of the amphetamine-induced rotation test showed a significant reduction only in the intracranial-striatum route(SMD[95%CI]=-2.59[-3.25 to-1.94],P=0.0001,I^(2)=74.4%).The memory test showed significant improvement only in the intravenous route(SMD[95%CI]=4.80[1.84 to 7.76],P=0.027,I^(2)=79.6%).Mesenchymal stem cells have been shown to positively impact motor function and memory function and protect dopaminergic neurons in preclinical models of Parkinson’s disease.Further research is required to determine the optimal stem cell types,modifications,transplanted cell numbe rs,and delivery methods for these protocols.展开更多
Hypoxia is a typical feature of the tumor microenvironment,one of the most critical factors affecting cell behavior and tumor progression.However,the lack of tumor models able to precisely emulate natural brain tumor ...Hypoxia is a typical feature of the tumor microenvironment,one of the most critical factors affecting cell behavior and tumor progression.However,the lack of tumor models able to precisely emulate natural brain tumor tissue has impeded the study of the effects of hypoxia on the progression and growth of tumor cells.This study reports a three-dimensional(3D)brain tumor model obtained by encapsulating U87MG(U87)cells in a hydrogel containing type I collagen.It also documents the effect of various oxygen concentrations(1%,7%,and 21%)in the culture environment on U87 cell morphology,proliferation,viability,cell cycle,apoptosis rate,and migration.Finally,it compares two-dimensional(2D)and 3D cultures.For comparison purposes,cells cultured in flat culture dishes were used as the control(2D model).Cells cultured in the 3D model proliferated more slowly but had a higher apoptosis rate and proportion of cells in the resting phase(G0 phase)/gap I phase(G1 phase)than those cultured in the 2D model.Besides,the two models yielded significantly different cell morphologies.Finally,hypoxia(e.g.,1%O2)affected cell morphology,slowed cell growth,reduced cell viability,and increased the apoptosis rate in the 3D model.These results indicate that the constructed 3D model is effective for investigating the effects of biological and chemical factors on cell morphology and function,and can be more representative of the tumor microenvironment than 2D culture systems.The developed 3D glioblastoma tumor model is equally applicable to other studies in pharmacology and pathology.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52079046).
文摘Currently,more than ten ultrahigh arch dams have been constructed or are being constructed in China.Safety control is essential to long-term operation of these dams.This study employed the flexibility coefficient and plastic complementary energy norm to assess the structural safety of arch dams.A comprehensive analysis was conducted,focusing on differences among conventional methods in characterizing the structural behavior of the Xiaowan arch dam in China.Subsequently,the spatiotemporal characteristics of the measured performance of the Xiaowan dam were explored,including periodicity,convergence,and time-effect characteristics.These findings revealed the governing mechanism of main factors.Furthermore,a heterogeneous spatial panel vector model was developed,considering both common factors and specific factors affecting the safety and performance of arch dams.This model aims to comprehensively illustrate spatial heterogeneity between the entire structure and local regions,introducing a specific effect quantity to characterize local deformation differences.Ultimately,the proposed model was applied to the Xiaowan arch dam,accurately quantifying the spatiotemporal heterogeneity of dam performance.Additionally,the spatiotemporal distri-bution characteristics of environmental load effects on different parts of the dam were reasonably interpreted.Validation of the model prediction enhances its credibility,leading to the formulation of health diagnosis criteria for future long-term operation of the Xiaowan dam.The findings not only enhance the predictive ability and timely control of ultrahigh arch dams'performance but also provide a crucial basis for assessing the effectiveness of engineering treatment measures.
文摘The advantages of a flat-panel X-ray source(FPXS)make it a promising candidate for imaging applications.Accurate imaging-system modeling and projection simulation are critical for analyzing imaging performance and resolving overlapping projection issues in FPXS.The conventional analytical ray-tracing approach is limited by the number of patterns and is not applicable to FPXS-projection calculations.However,the computation time of Monte Carlo(MC)simulation is independent of the size of the patterned arrays in FPXS.This study proposes two high-efficiency MC projection simulators for FPXS:a graphics processing unit(GPU)-based phase-space sampling MC(gPSMC)simulator and GPU-based fluence sampling MC(gFSMC)simulator.The two simulators comprise three components:imaging-system modeling,photon initialization,and physical-interaction simulations in the phantom.Imaging-system modeling was performed by modeling the FPXS,imaging geometry,and detector.The gPSMC simulator samples the initial photons from the phase space,whereas the gFSMC simulator performs photon initialization from the calculated energy spectrum and fluence map.The entire process of photon interaction with the geometry and arrival at the detector was simulated in parallel using multiple GPU kernels,and projections based on the two simulators were calculated.The accuracies of the two simulators were evaluated by comparing them with the conventional analytical ray-tracing approach and acquired projections,and the efficiencies were evaluated by comparing the computation time.The results of simulated and realistic experiments illustrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed gPSMC and gFSMC simulators in the projection calculation of various phantoms.
文摘安全生产事故往往由多组织交互、多因素耦合造成,事故原因涉及多个组织。为预防和遏制多组织生产安全事故的发生,基于系统理论事故建模与过程模型(Systems-Theory Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)、24Model,构建一种用于多组织事故分析的方法,并以青岛石油爆炸事故为例进行事故原因分析。结果显示:STAMP-24Model可以分组织,分层次且有效、全面、详细地分析涉及多个组织的事故原因,探究多组织之间的交互关系;对事故进行动态演化分析,可得到各组织不安全动作耦合关系与形成的事故失效链及管控失效路径,进而为预防多组织事故提供思路和参考。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.52208500)。
文摘The finite-depth concrete panels have been widely applied in the protective structures,and its impact resistance and dynamic fracture failures,especially the scabbing/perforation limits,under high velocity projectile impact,are mainly concerned by protective engineers,which are numerically studied based on an improved dynamic concrete model in this study.Firstly,based on the framework of the KCC(Karagozian&Case concrete)model,a dynamic concrete model is proposed which considers an independent tensile damage model and a continued transition between dynamic tensile and compressive properties.Secondly,the strength surface,equation of state and damage parameters of the proposed model are comprehensively calibrated by a triaxial compressive test with high confinement pressure,the rationality of which is further verified based on the single element tests,e.g.,uniaxial and triaxial compression as well as uniaxial,biaxial and triaxial tension.Thirdly,a series of projectile high velocity impact tests on thin and thick concrete panels are simulated,which indicates that the projectile residual velocity and dynamic fracture failures are reproduced satisfactorily,while the KCC model underestimates both the spalling and scabbing dimensions severely.Finally,based on the validated concrete model and finite element analyses approach,the validations of the existing five empirical formulae are evaluated,in terms of the depth of penetration(DOP)and scabbing/perforation limits of concrete panel.Both the Army corps of engineers(ACE)and modified National Defense Research Committee(NDRC)formulae are recommended in the design of the protective structure to avoid scabbing failure.
基金supported by the Chinese–Norwegian Collaboration Projects within Climate Systems jointly funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (Grant No.2022YFE0106800)the Research Council of Norway funded project,MAPARC (Grant No.328943)+2 种基金the support from the Research Council of Norway funded project,COMBINED (Grant No.328935)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.42075030)the Postgraduate Research and Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province (KYCX23_1314)。
文摘Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U22A20166 and 12172230)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2023A1515012654)+1 种基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.U22A20166 and 12172230)the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(Grant No.2023A1515012654)。
文摘Understanding the anisotropic creep behaviors of shale under direct shearing is a challenging issue.In this context,we conducted shear-creep and steady-creep tests on shale with five bedding orientations (i.e.0°,30°,45°,60°,and 90°),under multiple levels of direct shearing for the first time.The results show that the anisotropic creep of shale exhibits a significant stress-dependent behavior.Under a low shear stress,the creep compliance of shale increases linearly with the logarithm of time at all bedding orientations,and the increase depends on the bedding orientation and creep time.Under high shear stress conditions,the creep compliance of shale is minimal when the bedding orientation is 0°,and the steady-creep rate of shale increases significantly with increasing bedding orientations of 30°,45°,60°,and 90°.The stress-strain values corresponding to the inception of the accelerated creep stage show an increasing and then decreasing trend with the bedding orientation.A semilogarithmic model that could reflect the stress dependence of the steady-creep rate while considering the hardening and damage process is proposed.The model minimizes the deviation of the calculated steady-state creep rate from the observed value and reveals the behavior of the bedding orientation's influence on the steady-creep rate.The applicability of the five classical empirical creep models is quantitatively evaluated.It shows that the logarithmic model can well explain the experimental creep strain and creep rate,and it can accurately predict long-term shear creep deformation.Based on an improved logarithmic model,the variations in creep parameters with shear stress and bedding orientations are discussed.With abovementioned findings,a mathematical method for constructing an anisotropic shear creep model of shale is proposed,which can characterize the nonlinear dependence of the anisotropic shear creep behavior of shale on the bedding orientation.
文摘On the basis of using entropy weight method to measure China’s education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization evaluation indicators, using the panel data of 30 provinces in China (excluding Xizang, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2012 to 2021, a spatial panel simultaneous equation model is constructed based on adjacency matrix, geographical distance matrix and economic geographical distance matrix deeply study the interaction mechanism and spatial spillover effects between education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization through the generalized spatial three-stage least squares method (GS3SLS). The results indicate that there is a significant spatial spillover effect and a positive spatial correlation between education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization, and there is a significant interactive effect between the two variables, while promoting each other positively. Therefore, the government should clarify the deep relationship between education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization based on the current background, and better consolidate and expand the effective connection between the achievements of education poverty alleviation and rural revitalization.
文摘Flow units(FU)rock typing is a common technique for characterizing reservoir flow behavior,producing reliable porosity and permeability estimation even in complex geological settings.However,the lateral extrapolation of FU away from the well into the whole reservoir grid is commonly a difficult task and using the seismic data as constraints is rarely a subject of study.This paper proposes a workflow to generate numerous possible 3D volumes of flow units,porosity and permeability below the seismic resolution limit,respecting the available seismic data at larger scales.The methodology is used in the Mero Field,a Brazilian presalt carbonate reservoir located in the Santos Basin,who presents a complex and heterogenic geological setting with different sedimentological processes and diagenetic history.We generated metric flow units using the conventional core analysis and transposed to the well log data.Then,given a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm,the seismic data and the well log statistics,we simulated acoustic impedance,decametric flow units(DFU),metric flow units(MFU),porosity and permeability volumes in the metric scale.The aim is to estimate a minimum amount of MFU able to calculate realistic scenarios porosity and permeability scenarios,without losing the seismic lateral control.In other words,every porosity and permeability volume simulated produces a synthetic seismic that match the real seismic of the area,even in the metric scale.The achieved 3D results represent a high-resolution fluid flow reservoir modelling considering the lateral control of the seismic during the process and can be directly incorporated in the dynamic characterization workflow.
文摘Non-responses leading to missing data are common in most studies and causes inefficient and biased statistical inferences if ignored. When faced with missing data, many studies choose to employ complete case analysis approach to estimate the parameters of the model. This however compromises on the susceptibility of the estimates to reduced bias and minimum variance as expected. Several classical and model based techniques of imputing the missing values have been mentioned in literature. Bayesian approach to missingness is deemed superior amongst the other techniques through its natural self-lending to missing data settings where the missing values are treated as unobserved random variables that have a distribution which depends on the observed data. This paper digs up the superiority of Bayesian imputation to Multiple Imputation with Chained Equations (MICE) when estimating logistic panel data models with single fixed effects. The study validates the superiority of conditional maximum likelihood estimates for nonlinear binary choice logit panel model in the presence of missing observations. A Monte Carlo simulation was designed to determine the magnitude of bias and root mean square errors (RMSE) arising from MICE and Full Bayesian imputation. The simulation results show that the conditional maximum likelihood (ML) logit estimator presented in this paper is less biased and more efficient when Bayesian imputation is performed to curb non-responses.
文摘Green technology innovation is an important driving force and source to promote my country’s high-quality development,and it is the core path to achieve sustainable development.This paper uses my country’s provincial panel data from 2016 to 2019 to study the impact mechanism of R&D investment on green technology innovation,and introduces the level of digitization,using the panel threshold model to discuss its role in the impact mechanism of R&D investment on green technology innovation.The study found that when the level of digitalization in a region is low,increasing R&D investment does not necessarily improve the ability of green technology innovation;when the level of digitalization is relatively high,R&D investment has a positive role in promoting green technology innovation.Therefore,it is necessary to improve policies to encourage enterprises to increase investment in research and development;at the same time,it is necessary to promote the coordinated development of digital foundation,digital investment,digital literacy,digital economy and digital application,and promote the deep integration of digitalization and green technology innovation.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China,China(No.42004016)HuBei Natural Science Fund,China(No.2020CFB329)+1 种基金HuNan Natural Science Fund,China(No.2023JJ60559,2023JJ60560)the State Key Laboratory of Geodesy and Earth’s Dynamics self-deployment project,China(No.S21L6101)。
文摘Short-term(up to 30 days)predictions of Earth Rotation Parameters(ERPs)such as Polar Motion(PM:PMX and PMY)play an essential role in real-time applications related to high-precision reference frame conversion.Currently,least squares(LS)+auto-regressive(AR)hybrid method is one of the main techniques of PM prediction.Besides,the weighted LS+AR hybrid method performs well for PM short-term prediction.However,the corresponding covariance information of LS fitting residuals deserves further exploration in the AR model.In this study,we have derived a modified stochastic model for the LS+AR hybrid method,namely the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method.By using the PM data products of IERS EOP 14 C04,the numerical results indicate that for PM short-term forecasting,the proposed weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows an advantage over both the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method.Compared to the mean absolute errors(MAEs)of PMX/PMY sho rt-term prediction of the LS+AR hybrid method and the weighted LS+AR hybrid method,the weighted LS+weighted AR hybrid method shows average improvements of 6.61%/12.08%and 0.24%/11.65%,respectively.Besides,for the slopes of the linear regression lines fitted to the errors of each method,the growth of the prediction error of the proposed method is slower than that of the other two methods.
基金supported by the NSF grant AGS-1928883the NASA grants,80NSSC20K1670 and 80MSFC20C0019+2 种基金support from NASA GSFC IRADHIFISFM funds。
文摘Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager(LEXI)and Solar wind−Magnetosphere−Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under various solar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025.Magnetosheath conditions,namely,plasma density,velocity,and temperature,are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions.We developed a userfriendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density,velocity,temperature,and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics(MHD)model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models.Using this parameterized magnetosheath model,scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models.First,we created an MHD-based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities(1,5,10,15,20,25,and 30 cm)and 2 interplanetary magnetic field Bz components(±4 nT),and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions.We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77,especially for plasma density and plasma velocity.Second,we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models(gas-dynamic,analytic),and did two case studies to test the performance.The MHD-based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self-consistency among the magnetosheath parameters.Third,we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point,which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions.A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.
基金Supported by the Project of NINGBO Leading Medical Health Discipline,No.2022-B11Ningbo Natural Science Foundation,No.202003N4206Public Welfare Foundation of Ningbo,No.2021S108.
文摘BACKGROUND Colorectal cancer(CRC)is a serious threat worldwide.Although early screening is suggested to be the most effective method to prevent and control CRC,the current situation of early screening for CRC is still not optimistic.In China,the incidence of CRC in the Yangtze River Delta region is increasing dramatically,but few studies have been conducted.Therefore,it is necessary to develop a simple and efficient early screening model for CRC.AIM To develop and validate an early-screening nomogram model to identify individuals at high risk of CRC.METHODS Data of 64448 participants obtained from Ningbo Hospital,China between 2014 and 2017 were retrospectively analyzed.The cohort comprised 64448 individuals,of which,530 were excluded due to missing or incorrect data.Of 63918,7607(11.9%)individuals were considered to be high risk for CRC,and 56311(88.1%)were not.The participants were randomly allocated to a training set(44743)or validation set(19175).The discriminatory ability,predictive accuracy,and clinical utility of the model were evaluated by constructing and analyzing receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves and calibration curves and by decision curve analysis.Finally,the model was validated internally using a bootstrap resampling technique.RESULTS Seven variables,including demographic,lifestyle,and family history information,were examined.Multifactorial logistic regression analysis revealed that age[odds ratio(OR):1.03,95%confidence interval(CI):1.02-1.03,P<0.001],body mass index(BMI)(OR:1.07,95%CI:1.06-1.08,P<0.001),waist circumference(WC)(OR:1.03,95%CI:1.02-1.03 P<0.001),lifestyle(OR:0.45,95%CI:0.42-0.48,P<0.001),and family history(OR:4.28,95%CI:4.04-4.54,P<0.001)were the most significant predictors of high-risk CRC.Healthy lifestyle was a protective factor,whereas family history was the most significant risk factor.The area under the curve was 0.734(95%CI:0.723-0.745)for the final validation set ROC curve and 0.735(95%CI:0.728-0.742)for the training set ROC curve.The calibration curve demonstrated a high correlation between the CRC high-risk population predicted by the nomogram model and the actual CRC high-risk population.CONCLUSION The early-screening nomogram model for CRC prediction in high-risk populations developed in this study based on age,BMI,WC,lifestyle,and family history exhibited high accuracy.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2021YFF0702201)National Natural Science Foundation of China (81873736,31872779,81830032)+2 种基金Guangzhou Key Research Program on Brain Science (202007030008)Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province (2021ZT09Y007,2020B121201006,2018B030337001,2021A1515012526)Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province (2021A1515012526,2022A1515012651)。
文摘Neurodegenerative diseases(NDs)are a group of debilitating neurological disorders that primarily affect elderly populations and include Alzheimer's disease(AD),Parkinson's disease(PD),Huntington's disease(HD),and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis(ALS).Currently,there are no therapies available that can delay,stop,or reverse the pathological progression of NDs in clinical settings.As the population ages,NDs are imposing a huge burden on public health systems and affected families.Animal models are important tools for preclinical investigations to understand disease pathogenesis and test potential treatments.While numerous rodent models of NDs have been developed to enhance our understanding of disease mechanisms,the limited success of translating findings from animal models to clinical practice suggests that there is still a need to bridge this translation gap.Old World nonhuman primates(NHPs),such as rhesus,cynomolgus,and vervet monkeys,are phylogenetically,physiologically,biochemically,and behaviorally most relevant to humans.This is particularly evident in the similarity of the structure and function of their central nervous systems,rendering such species uniquely valuable for neuroscience research.Recently,the development of several genetically modified NHP models of NDs has successfully recapitulated key pathologies and revealed novel mechanisms.This review focuses on the efficacy of NHPs in modeling NDs and the novel pathological insights gained,as well as the challenges associated with the generation of such models and the complexities involved in their subsequent analysis.
文摘Parkinson’s disease is chara cterized by the loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars com pacta,and although restoring striatal dopamine levels may improve symptoms,no treatment can cure or reve rse the disease itself.Stem cell therapy has a regenerative effect and is being actively studied as a candidate for the treatment of Parkinson’s disease.Mesenchymal stem cells are considered a promising option due to fewer ethical concerns,a lower risk of immune rejection,and a lower risk of teratogenicity.We performed a meta-analysis to evaluate the therapeutic effects of mesenchymal stem cells and their derivatives on motor function,memory,and preservation of dopamine rgic neurons in a Parkinson’s disease animal model.We searched bibliographic databases(PubMed/MEDLINE,Embase,CENTRAL,Scopus,and Web of Science)to identify articles and included only pee r-reviewed in vivo interve ntional animal studies published in any language through J une 28,2023.The study utilized the random-effect model to estimate the 95%confidence intervals(CI)of the standard mean differences(SMD)between the treatment and control groups.We use the systematic review center for laboratory animal expe rimentation’s risk of bias tool and the collaborative approach to meta-analysis and review of animal studies checklist for study quality assessment.A total of 33studies with data from 840 Parkinson’s disease model animals were included in the meta-analysis.Treatment with mesenchymal stem cells significantly improved motor function as assessed by the amphetamine-induced rotational test.Among the stem cell types,the bone marrow MSCs with neurotrophic factor group showed la rgest effect size(SMD[95%CI]=-6.21[-9.50 to-2.93],P=0.0001,I^(2)=0.0%).The stem cell treatment group had significantly more tyrosine hydroxylase positive dopamine rgic neurons in the striatum([95%CI]=1.04[0.59 to 1.49],P=0.0001,I^(2)=65.1%)and substantia nigra(SMD[95%CI]=1.38[0.89 to 1.87],P=0.0001,I^(2)=75.3%),indicating a protective effect on dopaminergic neurons.Subgroup analysis of the amphetamine-induced rotation test showed a significant reduction only in the intracranial-striatum route(SMD[95%CI]=-2.59[-3.25 to-1.94],P=0.0001,I^(2)=74.4%).The memory test showed significant improvement only in the intravenous route(SMD[95%CI]=4.80[1.84 to 7.76],P=0.027,I^(2)=79.6%).Mesenchymal stem cells have been shown to positively impact motor function and memory function and protect dopaminergic neurons in preclinical models of Parkinson’s disease.Further research is required to determine the optimal stem cell types,modifications,transplanted cell numbe rs,and delivery methods for these protocols.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52275291)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universitiesthe Program for Innovation Team of Shaanxi Province,China (No. 2023-CX-TD-17)
文摘Hypoxia is a typical feature of the tumor microenvironment,one of the most critical factors affecting cell behavior and tumor progression.However,the lack of tumor models able to precisely emulate natural brain tumor tissue has impeded the study of the effects of hypoxia on the progression and growth of tumor cells.This study reports a three-dimensional(3D)brain tumor model obtained by encapsulating U87MG(U87)cells in a hydrogel containing type I collagen.It also documents the effect of various oxygen concentrations(1%,7%,and 21%)in the culture environment on U87 cell morphology,proliferation,viability,cell cycle,apoptosis rate,and migration.Finally,it compares two-dimensional(2D)and 3D cultures.For comparison purposes,cells cultured in flat culture dishes were used as the control(2D model).Cells cultured in the 3D model proliferated more slowly but had a higher apoptosis rate and proportion of cells in the resting phase(G0 phase)/gap I phase(G1 phase)than those cultured in the 2D model.Besides,the two models yielded significantly different cell morphologies.Finally,hypoxia(e.g.,1%O2)affected cell morphology,slowed cell growth,reduced cell viability,and increased the apoptosis rate in the 3D model.These results indicate that the constructed 3D model is effective for investigating the effects of biological and chemical factors on cell morphology and function,and can be more representative of the tumor microenvironment than 2D culture systems.The developed 3D glioblastoma tumor model is equally applicable to other studies in pharmacology and pathology.