Statistical Analysis and Evaluation of Macroeconomic Policies: A Selective Review

In this paper,we highlight some recent developments of a new route to evaluate macroeconomic policy effects,which are investigated under the framework with potential outcomes.First,this paper begins with a brief introduction of the basic model setup in modern econometric analysis of program evaluation.Secondly,primary attention goes to the focus on causal effect estimation of macroeconomic policy with single time series data together with some extensions to multiple time series data.Furthermore,we examine the connection of this new approach to traditional macroeconomic models for policy analysis and evaluation.Finally,we conclude by addressing some possible future research directions in statistics and econometrics.

Analysis of Problems and Policy Recommendations for the Third-party Evaluation in the Present Poverty Alleviation

The introduction of third-party evaluation system and the implementation of third-party evaluation system in poverty alleviation is a major innovation in the targeted poverty alleviation work in China.In order to improve the third-party evaluation mechanism,further improve the efficiency of third-party evaluation,and enhance the effectiveness of targeted poverty alleviation,this paper analyzes and summarizes the main problems existing in the current third-party evaluation practice.In view of the related problems,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations,which are believed to play a positive role in further promoting the development and improvement of the third-party evaluation of getting rid of poverty.

Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Research of Goal Attainment of Green Transportation Development Policy —Take Dongguan “Motorcycle Ban” Policy as an Example

Launching the evaluation research of green transportation can grasp the green transportation implementation accurately and diagnose the existing problems. From the perspective of green transportation, this research chose Dongguan “motorcycle ban” policy as the research object, and constructed secondary evaluation index system in transportation and environmental harmony, transportation and future harmony, transportation and society harmony, transportation and resource harmony, four dimensions. Then it used fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model to do the evaluation and found that the policy’s positive effect on the Dongguan green transportation development was average. Finally, based on the evaluation results, measures and advices were proposed.

An Evaluation Synthesis of US AIDS Drug Assistance Program Policy

US Congress passed the CARE Act in 1990 in response to a dramatically growing need for resources to combat the AIDS epidemic. One of the programs contained in the Act was the AIDS Drug Assistance Program (ADAP), a federally-funded but state-maintained and managed program primarily concerned with providing medication for low-income HIV/AIDS patients. While ADAP programs across the country reached one-third of all patients in 2007, these programs are now in budgetary danger due to the economic recession, state budgetary constraints, the rising cost of healthcare generally, and longer life expectancies associated with current highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). This paper first evaluates the current state of ADAP, its strengths and weaknesses, and examines its sustainability in the short term if short-term measures are taken. Concluding that such measures would not lead to long-term sustainability, this paper then argues for a long-term solution to ADAP’s current problems, namely a national, centralized ADAP standard for budgetary and administrative matters. Such a program would increase the long-term sustainability and effectiveness of current ADAP programs by employing more efficient, standard policies and allowing larger, wholesale purchases of costly HAART medications. Moreover, a national policy would address the disparity that currently exists in ADAP programs today with regard to both minorities and those on the waiting lists for treatment. The institution of a national ADAP program would certainly face many political hurdles. Consequently, this paper also looks to a recent political dispute, the enactment of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), for guidance. Using the passage of the ACA as an example could light the path for passage of a national ADAP standard. Ultimately, this would lead to a more effective and sustainable program for HIV/AIDS patients in the United States.

Environment Restricts and Policy Choice in International Harmonization of Accounting Standards and Effect Evaluation——Evidence from the Non-monetary Transaction

The paper tests accounting earnings quality of the non-monetary transaction standard before and after the revision, and comes to the conclusion that the standard revision under domestic conditions which restricts the use of fair value and does not recognize exchange revenues effectively prevents the company from managing earnings to improve earnings quality. The earnings management of the public companies has become more difficult, and earnings quality has been improved. But the earnings management of the public company does not decrease, some public companies make earnings management by other ways, The researcher provides direct evidence in explaining environment restricts have a role in accounting internationalization, explaining the difficulties of standard-making.

Assessing effect of grassland resources policies using AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation:A case study of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region,China

In order to quantitatively analyze grassland resources policies of Ningxia,the analytic hierarchy process(AHP)was used to establish the evaluation index system,and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to make a comprehensive evaluation.The results indicated that the current grassland resources policies in Ningxia are in upper-middle level,and the relevant policies need to be improved.Finally,the corresponding suggestions were put forward in the hope of promoting the sustainable development of grassland resources in Ningxia.

Decision-making Principles and Evaluation Frame of Harmonious Fiscal Policy

Harmonious fiscal policy is the Inner requirement for Constructing Harmonious society and is an important means of realiziug such society. The harmonious fiscal policy should realize the harmony of “two hands”, the harmony of values, the unity of short-term and long-term harmony the unity of parts and the whole harmony, the unity of internal and external efficacy harmony. To scientifically evaluate harmony of fiscal policy is the prerequisite to bring harmonious fiscal policy to its full play.

The Impact of Generic Drug Consistency Evaluation Policy on Pharmaceutical Enterprises

Objective To study the impact of consistency evaluation policy on pharmaceutical enterprises from four aspects:reference preparations,evaluation methods,input costs,and market competitions,and government incentives for generic drug manufacturers,so as to put forward relevant suggestions.Methods Literature research method and statistical analysis method were used to provide data support for paper writing,making suggestions,and enhancing the predictability of policy.Results and Conclusion Some pharmaceutical enterprises faced difficulties in obtaining reference preparations,high input costs for exploring evaluation methods,and greater market competition.Consistency evaluation is a key measure to comprehensively improve the quality and efficacy of generic drugs.However,difficulties in obtaining reference preparations,high input costs and complex evaluation methods all affect the enthusiasm of companies.Therefore,national and local regulatory agencies have issued some supporting policies,which should be improved to assist enterprises in conducting consistency evaluations.

Evaluation and scenario simulation for forest ecological security in China

Continuously growing populations and rapid economic development have led to the excessive use of forest resources,and the forest ecosystem is threatened.In response,forest ecological security(FES)has attracted attention.In this study,an integrated dynamic simulation model was constructed using the system dynamic method,and it was used to evaluate the FES in China from 1999 to 2014.A scenario analysis was then used to evaluate the changes in the FES under five forestry policy scenarios for the 2015–2050 period,including the baseline,afforestation policy,harvesting policies,management policy,investment policy,and a policy mix.The results showed that the evaluation values of the FES increased during the period from 1999 to 2002,the period from 2004 to 2010 and the year 2014,and they decreased in 2003 and during the period from 2011 to 2013.During the 2015–2050 simulation period,the FES improved continuously.In particular,China would enter a new stage when the economic systems,social systems and ecosystems were in harmony after 2040.To improve the FES and the current status of the FES,a scenario analysis showed the most suitable scenario to be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2020 and Scenario 2 from 2021 to 2050.To relieve pressure,the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 5 from 2015 to 2040 and from 2046 to 2050,and the most suitable scenario would be Scenario 4 for 2041–2045.A policy mix(Scenario 5)would be most efficient under current conditions,while the effects of all the benefits of the forestry policies would weaken over the long term.The integrated method can be regarded as a decision support tool to help policy makers understand FES and promulgate a reasonable forestry policy.

National Environmental Policy Act of the United States and Its Application in Climate Litigation——Evaluating Litigation Case by Friends of the Earth on Export-Import Bank of the United States and Overseas Private Investment Corporation

Because that American government and congress hold a negative attitude on responding to climate change issue, people transfer the battle stage of climate change to the court,and hope to promote government and large energy companies actively responding to climate change issue via litigation form. A large amount of related litigation appears,and a kind of special litigation type is gradually formed, namely climate change litigation. National Environmental Policy Act of the United States is one of important legal weapons used by prosecutor in climate change litigation. In National Environmental Policy Act, it stipulates environmental impact evaluation system which has close relationship with climate change litigation. The system requires that federal agency ＂ should compile detailed environmental impact report （EIS） on major federal action which significantly affects human survival environment quality＂. Litigation case of Export - Import Bank of the United States and Overseas Private Investment Corporation by Fdends of the Earth, Green Peace, Boulder City, etc. is typical one related to the act. We try to evaluate and analyze text and case of the act.

The Evaluation of Human Resources in Modern Public Management in the Countries of South East Europe

Nowadays, the public sector plays an important role when it comes to economic development and growth of a country. The most important chapter is ＂the evaluation of public servants＂. The analysis for the evaluation and subsequently the personal development and career planning of human resources based on both academic theories and their practical implementation. The new model is based on proportionality and administrative Europeanization, which creates formal and informal rules, modern processes of public policy that will shape common beliefs and values incorporated in the specific national policies. Performance appraisal is the process by which organizations evaluate job performance. The aim of this paper is to provide a comprehensive narration for the performance management in modem public sector, to explain the uses of performance appraisals, to describe the methods of the evaluation and to analyze the role of evaluation.

Evaluation of the Moderately Leading Development in China's Electric Power Industry

This article analyzes the importance of the moderately leading development in electric power industry, and the basic policy of the industry in China. It evaluates if the industry is appropriately developed ahead of other industries from the aspects of legal structuring, planning, electricity pricing mechanism, fixed assets investment, human resources, technological innovation and production and supply capacity etc., and proposes f ive recommendations.

Evaluation of the Effect of China’s Health Care Reform Based on Prospect Theory

Objective To evaluate the effect of health care reform policy in China comprehensively and provide suggestions for its further implementation.Methods Data on the effect of health care reform were obtained from“China Health Statistics Yearbook”and National Bureau of Statistics of China and the indicators were selected by corrected item total correlation(CITC)and Cronbach’sαreliability coefficient.Then,the selected indicators were calculated through the prospect theory model.Meanwhile,the gray relation analysis method was introduced to enlarge the differences between the advantages and disadvantages to make the comprehensive evaluation result more obvious.Results and Conclusion The implementation of China’s health care reform has a significant impact on China’s medical and health system.However,the effect of the policy will become less with the increase of the total amount.An effective management can ensure that the policy continues to play its role.

Evaluating the Impacts of Food Safety Policies on Japan's Rice Imports Based on the Simultaneous Buy and Sell System

This study evaluated the impacts of food safety policies on Japan's Simultaneous Buy and Sell rice imports through measuring tariff equivalents of food safety policies.In order to construct an estimated model,a Japanese consumer's utility function is introduced and developed with consumer's preference parameters and elasticity of substitution.In the empirical study part,Japan's positive list system and rice traceability were analyzed and assessed as critical food safety policies.Results showed that after the implementation of the positive list system,consumers'preference for foreign rice and the substitution elasticity diminished.This decreasing tendency was quite similar to the results after the enforcement of rice traceability.The tariff equivalents of food safety policies on imported rice fluctuated around ¥50 yen/kg from fiscal year 2000 to 2005 and decreased because of the global grain price hike after 2006.The tariff equivalents soared in 2010,which was induced by the traceability regulation,and then dulled during Japan's earthquake and tsunami in 2011.Subsequently,after the recovery from natural disasters,the tariff equivalents of food safety policies became higher.Therefore,food safety policies had made imported rice less attractive,weakened the competitive power of rice exporting countries,and had statistically significant impacts on Japan's rice importation.

Application of Bayesian Econometrics in Policy Evaluation

This study explores the application of Bayesian econometrics in policy evaluation through theoretical analysis. The research first reviews the theoretical foundations of Bayesian methods, including the concepts of Bayesian inference, prior distributions, and posterior distributions. Through systematic analysis, the study constructs a theoretical framework for applying Bayesian methods in policy evaluation. The research finds that Bayesian methods have multiple theoretical advantages in policy evaluation: Based on parameter uncertainty theory, Bayesian methods can better handle uncertainty in model parameters and provide more comprehensive estimates of policy effects;from the perspective of model selection theory, Bayesian model averaging can reduce model selection bias and enhance the robustness of evaluation results;according to causal inference theory, Bayesian causal inference methods provide new approaches for evaluating policy causal effects. The study also points out the complexities of applying Bayesian methods in policy evaluation, such as the selection of prior information and computational complexity. To address these complexities, the study proposes hybrid methods combining frequentist approaches and suggestions for developing computationally efficient algorithms. The research also discusses theoretical comparisons between Bayesian methods and other policy evaluation techniques, providing directions for future research.

China's Policy Actions to Lead Teacher Development With Evaluation Reform

Purpose This study introduces a policy with great strategic significance and far-reaching impact by analyzing the background,measures,and future development trends of teacher evaluation reform in China.Design/Approach/Methods This study primarily conducts a policy text analysis of the section on teacher evaluation of the Overall Plan for Deepening the Reform of Educational Evaluation in the New Era.Findings The Overall Plan for Deepening the Reform of Educational Evaluation in the New Era was drafted to enhance the quality of Chinese teachers and address many problems in teacher evaluation.It comprised four sections:teachers’professional ethics,teaching effectiveness,evaluation models and methods,and honorary titles.The policy has distinctive features such as the high status and authority of the issuing body,a holistic and systematic nature,and an orientation toward practical issues.This article proposes three major policy foresights:promoting implementation through the force of political trends,giving schools autonomy in teacher evaluations,and implementing progressive reforms.Originality/Value This study conducted a specialist analysis of the policy in combination with the real scenario and institutional environment of Chinese teacher evaluation,which could encourage international peers to better understand Chinese teacher evaluation policies and promote policy learning and dissemination internationally.

How to Optimize Homework Evaluation under the"Double Reduction"Policy?--An Analysis Based on Teachers'Attention Allocation

It is essential to ensure that teachers allocate adequate attention to homework evaluation and effectively carry it out in order to successfully implement the"double reduction"policy.From the perspective of teachers'attention allocation,this study employed the NVivo 12 software to conduct text analysis on 39 cases of homework evaluation reform practices in primary and secondary schools in City N,China,from 2017 to 2021.The findings indicate that homework evaluation reform in these schools is a practical problem-oriented behavioral decision,and implementing the"double reduction"policy enhances teachers'attention allocation on homework evaluation.The attention allocation of teachers encompasses multiple aspects,such as determining the purpose of evaluation,setting evaluation content,and selecting evaluation subjects and methods.Following the implementation of the"double reduction"policy,teachers allocate more attention to reducing the homework burden on students.However,certain issues persist in the practices of homework evaluation reform,including inadequate consideration of constraints,an unbalanced content structure,and a lack of process coordination.Therefore,under the"double reduction"policy,it is imperative to improve school incentive systems,enhance teachers'evaluation capabilities,and alleviate their workload.These measures can guide teachers to allocate more attention to homework evaluation,thereby enhancing the efficiency and sustainability of attention allocation and fully realizing the educational function of homework evaluation.

Local Responses to Macro Development Policies and Their Effects on Rural System in China's Mountainous Regions:The Case of Shuanghe Village in Sichuan Province

China has promulgated a series of policies including the Western Development Program, the Grain for Green Project, agricultural support policies and building a new countryside strategy to eliminate east-west differences and urban-rural disparities since the late 1990s. This paper gives a holistic examination on local responses to the four typical macro socio-economic development policies and their effects on rural system based on a case study of a mountainous village in southern Sichuan Province. The results showed that the policies have not moved the case study village from its historically marginal status. To some extent, its socio-economic situation might have been worsened by accelerated out- migration of the youth, loss of agricultural land due to afforestation and industrial plants, increased fire hazard due to afforestation and reforestation, increased environmental pollution due to industrial enterprises attracted to the village and a steep decline in agricultural production due to loss of and inefficient use of cultivated land. Factors causing local villages' dilemmas include the nonuniformity of actors' objectives, finiteness of villagers' abilities, and the imperfect incentive and restraint mechanism for local government's activities under existing policy framework composed of uncoordinated one-size-fits- all policies. We suggest that China's rural policy in the new period should gradually shift from a sectoral to a place-based one, from top-down incentives to the development of bottom-up projects, and fully recognize the diversity of rural space, so as to lift localcapacities and make good use of the knowledge shared by different actors. Moreover, it is also necessary to integrate the various sectoral policies, and improve the interministerial and interdepartmental coordination of rural policies at regional and local levels.

The evidence for the impact of policy on physical activity outcomes within the school setting: A systematic review

Background:Despite the well-established health benefits of physical activity(PA)for young people(aged 419 years),most do not meet PA guidelines.Policies that support PA in schools may be promising,but their impact on PA behavior is poorly understood.The aim of this systematic review was to ascertain the level and type of evidence reported in the international scientific literature for policies within the school setting that contribute directly or indirectly to increasing PA.Methods:This systematic review is compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis guidelines.Six databases were searched using key concepts of policy,school,evaluation,and PA.Following title and abstract screening of 2323 studies,25 progressed to data synthesis.Methodological quality was assessed using standardized tools,and the strength of the evidence of policy impact was described based on pre-determined codes:positive,negative,inconclusive,or untested statistically.Results:Evidence emerged for 9 policy areas that had a direct or indirect effect on PA within the school setting.These were whole school PA policy,physical education,sport/extracurricular PA,classroom-based PA,active breaks/recess,physical environment,shared use agreements,active school transport,and surveillance.The bulk of the evidence was significantly positive(54%),27%was inconclusive,9%was significantly negative,and 11%was untested(due to rounding,some numbers add to 99%or 101%).Frequency of evidence was highest in the primary setting(41%),34%in the secondary setting,and 24%in primary/secondary combined school settings.By policy area,frequency of evidence was highest for sport/extracurricular PA(35%),17%for physical education,and 12%for whole school PA policy,with evidence for shared use agreements between schools and local communities rarely reported(2%).Comparing relative strength of evidence,the evidence for shared use agreements,though sparse,was 100%positive,while 60%of the evidence for whole school PA policy,59%of the evidence for sport/extracurricular PA,57%of the evidence for physical education,50%of the evidence for PA in classroom,and 50%of the evidence for active breaks/recess were positive.Conclusion:The current evidence base supports the effectiveness of PA policy actions within the school setting but cautions against a“one-sizefits-all”approach and emphasizes the need to examine policy implementation to maximize translation into practice.Greater clarity regarding terminology,measurement,and methods for evaluation of policy interventions is needed.

STUDY ON THE OPTIMIZATION OF TRANSPORT CONTROL POLICY IN COMMUNICATION NETWORK

In communication networks with policy-based Transport Control on-Demand (TCoD) function,the transport control policies play a great impact on the network effectiveness. To evaluate and optimize the transport policies in communication network,a policy-based TCoD network model is given and a comprehensive evaluation index system of the network effectiveness is put forward from both network application and handling mechanism perspectives. A TCoD network prototype system based on Asynchronous Transfer Mode/Multi-Protocol Label Switching (ATM/MPLS) is introduced and some experiments are performed on it. The prototype system is evaluated and analyzed with the comprehensive evaluation index system. The results show that the index system can be used to judge whether the communication network can meet the application requirements or not,and can provide references for the optimization of the transport policies so as to improve the communication network effectiveness.